LOST (Game Over)

[Bell]

JF, Penguin, C&g, Taly, Roden.

This is your scum list?

Yeah. But it doesn’t feel very good. I’m dissatisfied.

[Frogsterking]

Nvm, found it. That’s pretty messed up on Sanae.
Well it’s not like it doesn’t make perfect sense for MALA to be the MiB but as someone mentioned, flavor/alignment.

Bell, would scum!Ceph shade scum!Corwin's catchup post as performative?

PEdit:

Is there any reason you oppose a D1 penguin lim?

[Cat Scratch Fever]

I just noticed - 7 people scumreading Bell! how does that feel

[BlueBloodedToffee]

VOTE: Penguin

[Bell]

Funnily enough I thought about calling for them to be the Lim of the day, but I’ve thought that about like 6 people just based on knee jerks.
I don’t oppose it tho.

[Corwinoid]

My problem with Dancing Puppets claim is that even if I accept her results are are both true and applicable to any situations within this game, it doesn't provide evidence that her theory about CW has "predictive utility"

This is essentially true, for more reasons than stated. The real problem is the convolution of stats and probability; stating something has happened X% of the time (the statistic) doesn't inherently give it an X% probability of happening unless you're talking about independent

random

events. We're not talking about random events though, and the probability of it being S/S is dependent on the probability of those slots is scum in the first place. So the mistake being made is using a statistic to define a probability that it doesn't actually define.

I had something else to say after that, but got interrupted for inane BS and lost my train of thought.

I also don't like her argument that a scum v scum counterwagon is unlikely for a similar reason, because 2 scum wagons are unlikely to be selected simultaneously by random chance anyway.

I actually don't like this either though. I haven't (and have no intention of) looked at statistics for how likely town is to hunt scum vs. random selection, but my gut intuition is that it would be better than random chance. If that's the case, the odds of town splitting and picking two scum wagons at the same time would probably be higher than expected, as unintuitive as that might seem.

[T-Bone]

I'm moving Bell and Taly to my won't eliminate list today. I guess Bell can be coded null on my list if you want, Pooky.

[Enchant]

VOTE: Penguin

[Frogsterking]

JF, Penguin, C&g, Taly, Roden.

This is your scum list?

I liked PP's interactions with Dunnstral; it felt aggressive enough to be townie for him

Okay. Is the kind of sparse content on track for penguin? They seem a little light.

[Bell]

I just noticed - 7 people scumreading Bell! how does that feel

It makes sense. Colloquial expression: I’m up in their grill trying to find if there’s scum in it, but people think I stole something or are just annoyed.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Okay. Is the kind of sparse content on track for penguin? They seem a little light.

Yeah he's pretty sparse as both alignments.

[Frogsterking]

Okay. Is the kind of sparse content on track for penguin? They seem a little light.

Yeah he's pretty sparse as both alignments.

And you think the Ceph wagon is likely to blow up in smoke?

[T-Bone]

My problem with Dancing Puppets claim is that even if I accept her results are are both true and applicable to any situations within this game, it doesn't provide evidence that her theory about CW has "predictive utility"

This is essentially true, for more reasons than stated. The real problem is the convolution of stats and probability; stating something has happened X% of the time (the statistic) doesn't inherently give it an X% probability of happening unless you're talking about independent

random

events. We're not talking about random events though, and the probability of it being S/S is dependent on the probability of those slots is scum in the first place. So the mistake being made is using a statistic to define a probability that it doesn't actually define.

I had something else to say after that, but got interrupted for inane BS and lost my train of thought.

I also don't like her argument that a scum v scum counterwagon is unlikely for a similar reason, because 2 scum wagons are unlikely to be selected simultaneously by random chance anyway.

I actually don't like this either though. I haven't (and have no intention of) looked at statistics for how likely town is to hunt scum vs. random selection, but my gut intuition is that it would be better than random chance. If that's the case, the odds of town splitting and picking two scum wagons at the same time would probably be higher than expected, as unintuitive as that might seem.

I just noticed - 7 people scumreading Bell! how does that feel

It makes sense. Colloquial expression: I’m up in their grill trying to find if there’s scum in it, but people think I stole something or are just annoyed.

Seven is the sweet spot I'm trying to get there myself.

[T-Bone]

Dunno why I quoted Corwin, fat fingers I guess.

[JohnnyFarrar]

Speaking as a guy who also has sparse content

Is there a case on penguin I should be aware of

[Cytosine and Guanine]

hey cg, and feel free to ignore this question if the answer is no

are you sure you only get 100 words and not 100 different words

i was just thinking that's what i would have suggested if i saw that post restriction in a setup to make it more fun

The former.
-Guanine

[Lukewarm]

Nvm, found it. That’s pretty messed up on Sanae.
Well it’s not like it doesn’t make perfect sense for MALA to be the MiB but as someone mentioned, flavor/alignment.

I would guess hurley for talking to the dead, but :shrug:

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Okay. Is the kind of sparse content on track for penguin? They seem a little light.

Yeah he's pretty sparse as both alignments.

And you think the Ceph wagon is likely to blow up in smoke?

You mean disappear? He hasn't done anything that made me think town, but it's still too early to tell. In Ktane, I didn't think Cephrir was town until like mid-to-late day 1.

I actually kind of wonder why BBT dislikes the Ceph wagon

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Ceph, I don't have too much of an opinion on actually but he's not the scummiest player by any stretch from what I've read.

Frog wagon is bad though

[Frogsterking]

1918 and 1930 I appreciate, and I appreciate Cor going into the topic during your time off. My main takeaways are an increased skepticism on Puppets level of motivation to solve in this game, a slight town lean on the Cor slot, the danger of conflating probability with statistics (and I need to review the definition of random events), and the point how scum v scum wagons might be more common than I've been giving them credit for.

[Lukewarm]

I plan to use my platform as Confirmed Town to start a new wagon tonight. Buy like, 5 hours from now.

Stay tuned

[JohnnyFarrar]

Hot shit

[Enchant]

I plan to use my platform as Confirmed Town to start a new wagon tonight. Buy like, 5 hours from now.

Stay tuned

Bruh

[T-Bone]

1918 and 1930 I appreciate, and I appreciate Cor going into the topic during your time off. My main takeaways are an increased skepticism on Puppets level of motivation to solve in this game, a slight town lean on the Cor slot, the danger of conflating probability with statistics (and I need to review the definition of random events), and the point how scum v scum wagons might be more common than I've been giving them credit for.

Shit I think you might be town now, what an amphibian

[Cephrir]

JF and enchant both malding that it's them^