LOST (Game Over)

[ProfessorDrapion]

Yup Math is town.

Also, I feel like one of the replacements is probably scum

Why?

Replacements are more likely overall to be scum. I think context is important though. In this context I think players on a scum team who fall behind in a large game are more likely to replace out due to guilt of letting the team down.

So I see there have been several rep-outs already and I'm thinking that the rep-out pool is a better place to hunt than the entire player list.

Except this is fundamentally wrong.

Replace outs are indicative of a player not playing/wanting to play/busy/RL/bans or millions of reasons.

Some games have replace outs from all town because town is losing or lack of cooperation or unfun.

This game is insanely large and we (from where I have caught up to) haven’t had a single wagon all fucking game except Cephrir and maybe one other person. That’s demoralizing

It's not fundamentally wrong dude,

you are uninformed

. These people at stanford used this very website as a corpus and showed that replace outs are more likely to be scum. You can find the corpus yourself online easily.

What’s Dis?
(

Bolded

)

[Frogsterking]

Bella is probably the best person to ask about whether Klick is playing his scum game here.

[Dancing Puppets]

@Puppet

I'm thinking Toogle -> Taly could be a scum replace out

Nah, Toog replaced out for rl reasons. Plus I tr Taly.

Ofc they replaced out for RL reasons, I'm saying if they were town they may feel more comfortable popping in every now and then.

Can you elaborate on the Taly townread? You're the first one I've heard say this.

This is an icky line of questioning. Let Toog rest in peace. Taly is here now and has basically played that slot's entire game.

While we're on the topic, do you feel Taly has posted anything AI, TBone?

Not really. I decided to write the slot off because of the neighborhood with Bell. That was back in the time there was only like two claimed hoods, so that decision was perhaps premature. Taly's posts are like noise in my head though. I need to go back check the last time I talked to Taly.

Also like, mechanically, I think we need Math for at least Day 2 anyway because of the silliness of DNA's claimed post restriction. So y'all could lim him on Day 2 if you're still not satisfied. Eliminating Math now means DNA gets a pass and never needs to answer for Day 1. I'm not saying we're guaranteed anything with Math alive, but we're guaranteed nothing with Math dead.

And like,

he inherited a town slot

...

Based on?

Also who would you lim instead then?

Corwin was so obviously town, but we don't agree there so I mean...

And I'm voting for Klick. I haven't been satisfied with the leading wagons all day, and had Klick in the back of my mind for awhile. I'm not sure if that's where I'll end the day on, but I know I don't want it to be Math or Ceph for sure (as my town reads who have been pushed as options all day).

Why was he so obviously town?

[T-Bone]

Honestly the weirdest thing about Taly for me was when they came in an unironically gave a read on their predecessor like that was a totally normal thing to do. It's kind of tryhard, especially since Taly likes to shout about their obvious-townieness...but it's not enough for me to say scum. They are a weird slot, but not a need to deal with today slot for me.

[ProfessorDrapion]

This is Town!Math because of the irrational insistence that I'm scum.

You can both be wolves though?

[Dancing Puppets]

@johnny, don't have one, would be shocked if it didn't involve at least one you, mala, ceph or pp. Then maybe bell.

P-edit I don't want you to be Bella like? I'm saying that I'm surprised at how difficult I am finding it to read you this game.

Who’s PP?

Penguin/Best Bird

[ProfessorDrapion]

Come on guys we've only got 12 hours to reach 24 votes on Math and make their dream come true

This is Wolf.

VOTE: Frogsterking

[Frogsterking]

This is Town!Math because of the irrational insistence that I'm scum.

You can both be wolves though?

Probably not, I would be annoyed at Math in the scum PT for their play here if we were both wolves.

[Dancing Puppets]

Bella is probably the best person to ask about whether Klick is playing his scum game here.

+1

She was correct about him in PYP. Ironically, Math replaced into his slot in that game.

Pooky add Frog to my greens.

[ProfessorDrapion]

@Puppet

I'm thinking Toogle -> Taly could be a scum replace out

Nah, Toog replaced out for rl reasons. Plus I tr Taly.

Ofc they replaced out for RL reasons, I'm saying if they were town they may feel more comfortable popping in every now and then.

Can you elaborate on the Taly townread? You're the first one I've heard say this.

Ah here we go with this replacement trash can talk again.

[Frogsterking]

@Puppet

I'm thinking Toogle -> Taly could be a scum replace out

Nah, Toog replaced out for rl reasons. Plus I tr Taly.

Ofc they replaced out for RL reasons, I'm saying if they were town they may feel more comfortable popping in every now and then.

Can you elaborate on the Taly townread? You're the first one I've heard say this.

Ah here we go with this replacement trash can talk again.

Professor Drapion is trying to fill in the granade throwing void I've been leaving behind.

[ProfessorDrapion]

Bella is probably the best person to ask about whether Klick is playing his scum game here.

+1

She was correct about him in PYP. Ironically, Math replaced into his slot in that game.

Pooky add Frog to my greens.

That doesn’t mean anything to add Frog to your Greens.

The dude called Math Town, Votes the damn dude saying he wants to be voted when Math says he doesn’t.

[Frogsterking]

They are a weird slot, but not a need to deal with today slot for me.

Alright

[T-Bone]

@Puppet

I'm thinking Toogle -> Taly could be a scum replace out

Nah, Toog replaced out for rl reasons. Plus I tr Taly.

Ofc they replaced out for RL reasons, I'm saying if they were town they may feel more comfortable popping in every now and then.

Can you elaborate on the Taly townread? You're the first one I've heard say this.

This is an icky line of questioning. Let Toog rest in peace. Taly is here now and has basically played that slot's entire game.

While we're on the topic, do you feel Taly has posted anything AI, TBone?

Not really. I decided to write the slot off because of the neighborhood with Bell. That was back in the time there was only like two claimed hoods, so that decision was perhaps premature. Taly's posts are like noise in my head though. I need to go back check the last time I talked to Taly.

Also like, mechanically, I think we need Math for at least Day 2 anyway because of the silliness of DNA's claimed post restriction. So y'all could lim him on Day 2 if you're still not satisfied. Eliminating Math now means DNA gets a pass and never needs to answer for Day 1. I'm not saying we're guaranteed anything with Math alive, but we're guaranteed nothing with Math dead.

And like,

he inherited a town slot

...

Based on?

Also who would you lim instead then?

Corwin was so obviously town, but we don't agree there so I mean...

And I'm voting for Klick. I haven't been satisfied with the leading wagons all day, and had Klick in the back of my mind for awhile. I'm not sure if that's where I'll end the day on, but I know I don't want it to be Math or Ceph for sure (as my town reads who have been pushed as options all day).

Why was he so obviously town?

I think Corwin got a bad rap because he started the game away from it and had to come in on the back foot with people scum reading him when he literally wasn't in the game yet. He didn't let himself get sucked into it too much. He asked questions about people's reads, he gave his own observations pretty freely without having to be pestered. When I pressed him about his read on BBT, I felt he gave the type of honest answer that scum don't often give (basically a nice nuanced idk). And yeah, I tend to town read people who have similar reads to mine. I never played with Corwin before, so it's not like he would know that and do something about it. Nor am I a big enough presence to warrant such treatment. I also thought he was pretty open to continually revaluate his reads. So like, yeah I initially town read him for a joke, but he came into it in a way that satisfied me. He also didn't make any posts I found scummy, so I don't even know of any examples in this game that would counter the positives of what I have seen.

As for Mathblade, most of his posts are NAI. It's clear he is crumbling to the pressure, but I don't think it's because he's scum, i think it's because he's frustrated. We can't scumread everyone for getting upset when they are scum read.

[ProfessorDrapion]

Bro if I had a day Vig so help me I’d fire right now.

[Dancing Puppets]

Honestly the weirdest thing about Taly for me was when they came in an unironically gave a read on their predecessor like that was a totally normal thing to do. It's kind of tryhard, especially since Taly likes to shout about their obvious-townieness...but it's not enough for me to say scum. They are a weird slot, but not a need to deal with today slot for me.

Idk why that’s necessarily weird? I’ve done that too, it actually reads +town to me. I replaced into a scumslot in Slaughter Hour and my predecessor was super scummy, so I was either defending them or hoping people would forget about them.

[MathBlade]

Yup Math is town.

Also, I feel like one of the replacements is probably scum

Why?

Replacements are more likely overall to be scum. I think context is important though. In this context I think players on a scum team who fall behind in a large game are more likely to replace out due to guilt of letting the team down.

So I see there have been several rep-outs already and I'm thinking that the rep-out pool is a better place to hunt than the entire player list.

Except this is fundamentally wrong.

Replace outs are indicative of a player not playing/wanting to play/busy/RL/bans or millions of reasons.

Some games have replace outs from all town because town is losing or lack of cooperation or unfun.

This game is insanely large and we (from where I have caught up to) haven’t had a single wagon all fucking game except Cephrir and maybe one other person. That’s demoralizing

It's not fundamentally wrong dude,

you are uninformed

. These people at stanford used this very website as a corpus and showed that replace outs are more likely to be scum. You can find the corpus yourself online easily.

What’s Dis?
(

Bolded

)

“Another concern pertains to the fact that Mafiaare slightly more likely to be replaced than towns-folk. In our dataset, an average town-aligned slothas 0.33 replacements, while an average Mafia-aligned slot has 0.35 replacements, meaning that areplacement is 6% more likely to be Mafia.”

6% difference over a tiny sampling of 900 games from MS.

In other words no where near as likely as you’re portraying it.

It also doesn’t account for variables like time of year, site flaking, or any sort of control.

I can’t believe I skimmed a paper being distracted for 6 % I like Numbers but that’s pretty shallow

Back to reading the thread for me

[ProfessorDrapion]

Oh wait I do.

@Frog any last words?

[T-Bone]

Honestly the weirdest thing about Taly for me was when they came in an unironically gave a read on their predecessor like that was a totally normal thing to do. It's kind of tryhard, especially since Taly likes to shout about their obvious-townieness...but it's not enough for me to say scum. They are a weird slot, but not a need to deal with today slot for me.

Idk why that’s necessarily weird? I’ve done that too, it actually reads +town to me. I replaced into a scumslot in Slaughter Hour and my predecessor was super scummy, so I was either defending them or hoping people would forget about them.

I think this was distinctly different from defending your predecessor.

[Dancing Puppets]

Come on guys we've only got 12 hours to reach 24 votes on Math and make their dream come true

This is Wolf.

VOTE: Frogsterking

I read it as nai but I keep getting townpings from his tone.

[ProfessorDrapion]

Come on guys we've only got 12 hours to reach 24 votes on Math and make their dream come true

This is Wolf.

VOTE: Frogsterking

I read it as nai but I keep getting townpings from his tone.

Would you like to give last words on behalf of Frog?

[Frogsterking]

Oh wait I do.

@Frog any last words?

Lmao just do it now this game is still young, and don't make the same mistake again

[ProfessorDrapion]

Hmm ok, me Sadge now

[ProfessorDrapion]

Guess this is why people say RT’s don’t mostly work.

[Dancing Puppets]

Bella is probably the best person to ask about whether Klick is playing his scum game here.

+1

She was correct about him in PYP. Ironically, Math replaced into his slot in that game.

Pooky add Frog to my greens.

That doesn’t mean anything to add Frog to your Greens.

The dude called Math Town, Votes the damn dude saying he wants to be voted when Math says he doesn’t.

His posting is very eraratic but I really can’t see much of an agenda behind it. Who are Frog’s buddies? He doesn’t look to be aligned with anyone.