Large Normal 240: Baileyposting [game over]

[Firebringer]

You are blatant mafia worrying i deduce you all.

RIP ya.

Ohhh so you do think im mafia. Lets go into that why don't we???

malculm first.

want to convince me on why i should buss malcom?

[Enchant]

You are blatant mafia worrying i deduce you all.

RIP ya.

Ohhh so you do think im mafia. Lets go into that why don't we???

malculm first.

want to convince me on why i should buss malcom?

Nah.

[Firebringer]

You are blatant mafia worrying i deduce you all.

RIP ya.

also since when do u have the ego to make this post. it reads more like posturing/acting

[Firebringer]

enchant i don't know if ur intentionally trying to annoy me or if this question i asked really triggered ur decision just to be as unhelpful as possible

But i gotta say. Good job annoying me.

It's possible.

Considering main goal of setup is "HEY THERE'S FOR SURE GUNSMITH".

hey pooky was worried about you. should i be?

[Enchant]

It's dumb question "Are you mafia" in other way, they are annoying.

[Vivax]

Firebringer shook at the prospect of what Enchant was about to unleash and was in denial at the sight of the metamorphosis unfolding in front of him

[Firebringer]

It's dumb question "Are you mafia" in other way, they are annoying.

and instead of just answering honestly like that, you gave a ridiculous answer that looked fake as hell.

w/e ill drop it now. Think ur checked out from actually talking to me and I don't believe ur answers are ai anymore.

[Greeting]

Also Bugspray randomly claiming GS as scum to start day 2 would be insane why are they even on your list?

Claiming Gunsmith is not automatically town indicative. There could be a mafia-aligned Gunsmith, and if there is,

bugspray

could be trying to gain towncred by claiming this and working with town.

Or you know....if bs is mafia. They are just faking being gunsmith. The idea they have to be gunsmith is weird idea to assume is the truthful part if you think could be mafia.

Only way he's scum is if he's actually "scum aligned gunsmith", or scum otherwise

knows

town doesn't have a gunsmith, or else he gets instantly countered and slaughtered.

Between that and Fred countertraining him against Meg, I don't even have an interest in humoring Bugspray being scum at the moment.

ummm its very easy to fake claim gunsmith as mafia.
why would scum assume town has a gunsmith here to counter?
Wait why am i going down this argument.

We both agree Bug isn't mafia. I should avoid pointless arguments

Because it's statistically the most likely PR town has given the setup. Claiming the role blind at the start of the day is absolutely bonkers unless they have a reason to think otherwise.

I would not make assumptions about what a closed setup is and whatnot, and even less would I treat them as fact and assume that the opposite is 'bonkers'. That's all I have to say on the matter of setup speculation.

While my list could have been seen as PoE, truthfully it is not - it is just a list of players which I did not townclear. Regardless of whether he's a town-aligned or mafia-aligned Gunsmith, it is not worth our time to consider eliminating him, at least for the time being.

[Firebringer]

VOTE: Malcolm

[Enchant]

It's dumb question "Are you mafia" in other way, they are annoying.

and instead of just answering honestly like that, you gave a ridiculous answer that looked fake as hell.

Run in fear

[Greeting]

I suppose I could leave Firebringer and geraintm out for the time being. Although I am not very sure about these two, they have given me some stuff to townread them for, while the rest are all kinda shady.

i am interested in what i have done that is shady

Well, my mind registered you as solely interacting with

Pooky

on Day 1 and that is behavior which I read as abnormal/not expected from an average townie.

I have never played with you before though so I read you at face value, unlike

Pooky

or

Enchant

, both of whom I know from past games.

[Greeting]

So I just did an exercise where I took the names of all remaining players and removed the ones I'm townreading. Order is not relevant.

{

Unsure

,

Firebringer

,

Fredrick A Campbell

,

Dwlee99

,

Lowell

,

bugspray

,

geraintm

,

UNOwen

,

Prince of Paterson

}

I suppose I could leave

Firebringer

and

geraintm

out for the time being. Although I am not very sure about these two, they have given me some stuff to townread them for, while the rest are all kinda shady.

Crescent

made a good observation about

gera

.

Gera's last two posts of the day are not posts I see him making as scum. Gera doesn't naughty point someone for a hammer if he knows the guy is going to flip scum.

I overlooked that post but yes, you are correct in that it does point towards town

geraintm

.

{

Unsure

,

Fredrick A Campbell

,

Dwlee99

,

Lowell

,

bugspray

,

UNOwen

,

Prince of Paterson

}

If I am correct, all the remaining mafia should be amongst the remaining seven. If we had a 5-member scumteam then more than half of them are scum, and if we had a 3-member scumteam then it's almost half.

I've been led to believe that 4 scum in minis and 5 scum in larges is effectively a hard no here. In 2272 I immediately assumed 4 scum in the game and was shot down on that rather quickly.

Do you think we have 4 scums then, as in 3 left? Or 6 scums and 5 left? Not sure how to interpret your answer.

I have played one 13p mini which had 4 scum, but the host was criticised for it in the post-game when game ended early with a mafia win.

[Prince of Paterson]

I'm kind of thinking the reason I was townreading PookyTheMagicalBear is useless due to WIFOM.

I don't know if this was intended to be a dumbtell, but I am having trouble believing that someone who early on was reading carefully enough to be noting down interactions as non-partnered and correcting the mod on votecounts would not notice who the nightkill was.

VOTE: Fredrick

I agree with Crescent's thoughts so far for the most part. I think it's fine to trust her as town for now. I expect that she is a pretty good scum player who would be willing and able to control the game, but I think especially her frustration near the end of day yesterday at the lack of action feels uninformed. Scum would know that it could look bad in the face of an imminent scumflip. I also think that the somewhat shaky townreading of Lowell for being active near end of day is the specific brand of not quite rational play that comes from town, letting your emotional take on the game influence your reads.

I would be fine with a Malcolm wagon as well.

[Vivax]

Adante = town.

My hesitation with Fred is that Lowell abandoned the Meg wagon for Fred just as it began to gather momentum, and then didn't return until it was clear the Meg wagon was serious. So it seemed like Lowell might have been trying to defuse the pressure on his buddy which obviously doesn't work if Fred is also scum.

I tried to puzzle together the purpose behind this post.

Looking at Lowell's ISO it doesn't seem like one should assume that they wanted to defuse pressure. Both Fred and Meg were their scumreads and it looks like they were flexibly swapping between the wagons.
The post above implies a 100% scumread on Lowell considering that the purpose of that post seems to be at most

to townread Fred off Lowells presumed mafia-alignment

, but nowhere else is there an indication of a Lowell scumread from Owen.

UNOwen claimed Malcolms hammer was bad and there's a decent wagon right from SoD, but didn't vote.

Spoiler:

Malcolm's hammer was bad, he needs to explain what arguments he was convinced by and why it took him until Meg was at E-1 to be convinced.

So
VOTE: UNOwen

[Vivax]

The game of mafia seems at times like an escape room game with two teams that have to eliminate each other. In a way, it‘s a bit like the SAW horror movie.
That room you‘re in can heat up quite a bit in the process, if this was a room in SAW and people started to randomly try to slay each other, maybe one should ask around why there‘s a tree in the middle of the room that isn‘t trying to eliminate anyone.

[Vivax]

863 clarification. They is Lowell when I meant they were flexibly swapping.

[UNOwen]

I tried to puzzle together the purpose behind this post.

Looking at Lowell's ISO it doesn't seem like one should assume that they wanted to defuse pressure. Both Fred and Meg were their scumreads and it looks like they were flexibly swapping between the wagons.
The post above implies a 100% scumread on Lowell considering that the purpose of that post seems to be at most

to townread Fred off Lowells presumed mafia-alignment

, but nowhere else is there an indication of a Lowell scumread from Owen.

UNOwen claimed Malcolms hammer was bad and there's a decent wagon right from SoD, but didn't vote.

Spoiler:

Malcolm's hammer was bad, he needs to explain what arguments he was convinced by and why it took him until Meg was at E-1 to be convinced.

So
VOTE: UNOwen

I don't think it's that complicated, Lowell's wagon swapping looks scummy and Lowell scum would clear Fred.

You aren't considering the context of his votes. When he switched to Fred, the Meg wagon had reached 5 and the Fred wagon was at 4. Since his last post the Meg wagon had gained 3 votes, while Fred wagon gained 2 which it lost in the same period. So with two scumreads why not stick on the wagon with momentum? Then when the Fred wagon fell apart, his next vote switch was against Prince (who didn't have any other voters at that point) instead of returning to the Meg wagon which still had 4 votes. No mention of Meg in those posts either (454,455). It wasn't until arguments started being pushed for Meg being scum that Lowell rejoined the wagon - but he was claiming to scumread Meg already, so he wouldn't need persuasion.

[UNOwen]

Yo, Greeting:

Most likely one of them is, least likely both are town.

Why?

[Vivax]

I‘ll probably respond in more detail when not phoneposting, but since you‘re thinking in flipclearing terms, who do you think got cleared by Megs flip?
One could think you‘d also be applying that logic retrospectively.

[UNOwen]

Firebringer, Greeting

[Andante]

So I just did an exercise where I took the names of all remaining players and removed the ones I'm townreading. Order is not relevant.

{

Unsure

,

Firebringer

,

Fredrick A Campbell

,

Dwlee99

,

Lowell

,

bugspray

,

geraintm

,

UNOwen

,

Prince of Paterson

}

I suppose I could leave

Firebringer

and

geraintm

out for the time being. Although I am not very sure about these two, they have given me some stuff to townread them for, while the rest are all kinda shady.

Crescent

made a good observation about

gera

.

Gera's last two posts of the day are not posts I see him making as scum. Gera doesn't naughty point someone for a hammer if he knows the guy is going to flip scum.

I overlooked that post but yes, you are correct in that it does point towards town

geraintm

.

{

Unsure

,

Fredrick A Campbell

,

Dwlee99

,

Lowell

,

bugspray

,

UNOwen

,

Prince of Paterson

}

If I am correct, all the remaining mafia should be amongst the remaining seven. If we had a 5-member scumteam then more than half of them are scum, and if we had a 3-member scumteam then it's almost half.

I've been led to believe that 4 scum in minis and 5 scum in larges is effectively a hard no here. In 2272 I immediately assumed 4 scum in the game and was shot down on that rather quickly.

Do you think we have 4 scums then, as in 3 left? Or 6 scums and 5 left? Not sure how to interpret your answer.

I have played one 13p mini which had 4 scum, but the host was criticised for it in the post-game when game ended early with a mafia win.

@Greeting
I think Dwlee is town, based off Meg's actions. Meg's first RVS vote was Dwlee, and bugspray's duel thing day 1 was probably gunsmith related, and I can see town doing that. so I would take those 2 out of the poe, which leaves

Unsure, Frederick, Lowell, UNO, Prince

and now, I really like Prince calling out Fredrick "missing the nightkill" def could be a bus, but uhh I'm at the conclusion Fredrick maf I think

Greeting, why do you TR Malcolm?

[Lowell]

You people trying to scumread me need to try harder. Bugs says I have no gun and there’s all of a sudden a suspiciously large number of ppl eager to lowkey scumread me. Seems awfully convenient if you get what I’m saying.

[Vivax]

You people trying to scumread me need to try harder. Bugs says I have no gun and there’s all of a sudden a suspiciously large number of ppl eager to lowkey scumread me. Seems awfully convenient if you get what I’m saying.

It IS awfully convenient. They sell Lowell scumreads in bulk at Aldi around here for 50c a piece. You should be able to find a few at Costcos over there.

[Lowell]

Ha. Burn.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Spoiler: post 862

I'm kind of thinking the reason I was townreading PookyTheMagicalBear is useless due to WIFOM.

I don't know if this was intended to be a dumbtell, but I am having trouble believing that someone who early on was reading carefully enough to be noting down interactions as non-partnered and correcting the mod on votecounts would not notice who the nightkill was.

VOTE: Fredrick

I agree with Crescent's thoughts so far for the most part. I think it's fine to trust her as town for now. I expect that she is a pretty good scum player who would be willing and able to control the game, but I think especially her frustration near the end of day yesterday at the lack of action feels uninformed. Scum would know that it could look bad in the face of an imminent scumflip. I also think that the somewhat shaky townreading of Lowell for being active near end of day is the specific brand of not quite rational play that comes from town, letting your emotional take on the game influence your reads.

I would be fine with a Malcolm wagon as well.

I actually mentioned my PookyTheMagicalBear read is WIFOM to demonstrate that I really think something was wrong with the way I was townreading certain players and I will be reevaluating some of my reasons to see if they hold up to this slightly higher standard. I removed the part where I talked about reevaluating my reads from the post and started to talk about something else instead.