Micro 1058: Is This Thing Loaded? -- Game Over!

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Post Post #75 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 1:33 am

Post by Ph0enix »

In post 74, Alexcellent wrote:Hmm fair enough. It's still early I guess but I can see myself having a hard time switching off my paranoia here now :lol:
What do you think of Dunnstral?
I don't think much of the vote on Bambi, I see where it's coming from, even though I wouldn't have made it myself.

I like the push on Frogsterking but I can't say I think it's AI necessarily, although I do get it's natural for a Town player to be more willing to want to push the conversation forward.

So I'm null on Dunn for now. Maybe slight TR.
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Post Post #76 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 1:40 am

Post by Alexcellent »

Fair nuff. I feel like digging through an ISO and doing some hard comparisons like 3 pages in is a level of pro-activeness that I think I see more likely coming from town.
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Post Post #77 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 4:04 am

Post by Galron »

I'm stuck.
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Post Post #78 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 4:29 am

Post by Alexcellent »

What are you stuck on?
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Post Post #79 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 4:42 am

Post by Galron »

Nothing particularly AI has happened so any reads I would have now would be stretches or made up
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Post Post #80 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 4:42 am

Post by Galron »

Thus I'm stuck
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Post Post #81 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 4:47 am

Post by Alexcellent »

Nothing between Dunstall/Frogster/Bambi/myself etc has raised an eyebrow or anything?
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Post Post #82 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:03 am

Post by Galron »

No more than a meh any one way
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Post Post #83 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:37 am

Post by Bambi Jay »

Yeah early game is weird like that. We get nothing until we flip someone but this is also a game that could possibly end night 1 via bad luck too. So finding someone first is imperative to our success.
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Post Post #84 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:41 am

Post by Ph0enix »

@Bambi: Any thoughts on Alexcellent's vote on you?
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Post Post #85 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 7:20 am

Post by Bambi Jay »

I mean. Basing it off of me last game is usually the smart thing to do. But I'm also unfortunately a naturally scummy person so I guess my town and scum games are similar enough anyway unless you compare the later parts of it.

Alex is just seeing my playstyle and assuming it's how I play only as scum. A reasonable mistake.
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Post Post #86 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:08 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 36, Frogsterking wrote:Okay on a skim by the way I scum read Dunnstral.
why did you call it a skim when there's only 35 posts at this point? what makes you SR Dunn
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
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Post Post #87 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:17 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 60, Ph0enix wrote:Not sure that's enough justification to place a vote tbh.


It appears we're out or RVS by now, so...

UNVOTE:
I'm not sure if this is AI or just playstyle friction but I strongly, strongly dislike this unvote, and the motivation in it as well as the comment preceding. Voting is always better than not voting. While reasoning for scumreads is obviously good, I don't like the implication here that you need to meet a certain standard of evidence/justification for a vote. Game is in a low info state and the best way to create info is to vote, create wagons, force people into taking stances. Sitting around not voting anyone and dismissing potentially good leads keeps the game in a low-info state. And what do you think the point of RVS is if you're just going to unvote once "we're out" of it and go nowhere with it afterwards?

I see in you don't seem to be scumreading Dunnstral, so what is the point of your comment on his vote? Why are you dismissing an attempt to pressure another player? If you aren't suspicious of Dunn's motivations then commenting like this on his vote feels to me like you're more interested in sounding reasonable or fair than you are in finding and pressuring scum.
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Post Post #88 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:18 am

Post by Galron »

In post 66, Sara wrote:sorry just woke up
UNVOTE:
I thought there would be more after this.
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Post Post #89 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:19 am

Post by Galron »

In post 53, Frogsterking wrote:Let's hammer Dunn IMO
Why
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Post Post #90 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:31 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

I think Alexcellent and Galron are town

I am going to wait for Frog to respond to Dunn before I fully weigh in on that case, but I will say I think Dunn's point about Frog's focus being more narrow in his scum games than the town games is the more compelling argument to me.

however I want to
VOTE: Ph0enix

very much giving me vibes/profiile of scum trying to get their foothold in the game by asking basic questions and making safe/non-controversial comments, while not actually taking any
real
initiative to pursue reads or sort players. is another example in addition to what I said about , a non-comment comment, "I don't like meta but I agree with your meta finding", that does not strike me as a comment that comes from a real intention to solve, and it also pushes me away from a Frogster vote currently because it's exactly how I'd expect scum to gently encourage a TvT.
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Post Post #91 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:33 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

oh I think kuti is town too
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Post Post #92 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:38 am

Post by Galron »

Better than anything I've got.

VOTE: ph0enix
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Post Post #93 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:41 am

Post by kutiplz »

In post 56, Alexcellent wrote:
In post 50, kutiplz wrote:I take it this is an australia regional player list? This works for me. Since I like playing at night.
I'm in Aus but I can't speak for the rest of the list
In post 51, kutiplz wrote:Anyway I want questions and what not. I would like attention please and ty
What do you think of the votes on Dunnstral and Bambi? It's sort of the only noteworthy thing that's happened in this game and you've not commented on it
Bambi, their whole weird attempt to derp clear themselves was awkward and forced. I can see why people are voting them.

I don't get the Dunn x frog thing tbh.
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Post Post #94 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:44 am

Post by kutiplz »

In post 63, Dunnstral wrote:Alright, looks like Frogsterking doesn't intend to respond so I'll come out with what I've found. Frogsterking's posts this game have rubbed me the wrong way so I took a look at some of their completed games to see if I could find more of the same from their town or scum games.

So I found 4 games, two town games and two scum games that Frogsterking played through, and I gathered the first 20 posts of each and compared to see how Frogsterking looked at the start of their games.

Game 1: kTaNE - Town

Spoiler:
In post 54, Frogsterking wrote:Hey guys, I thought I was clever, but it looks like several other people realized defusing bombs is good for maf.

I came up with a name for the strat:
MAD


M
urder
A
ll
D
efusers
In post 66, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 54, Frogsterking wrote:Hey guys, I thought I was clever, but it looks like several other people realized defusing bombs is good for maf.

I came up with a name for the strat:
MAD


M
urder
A
ll
D
efusers
I'm also curious if this is a part of a twist associated with the story.

We don't know that DATS inc. is even a bomb defusing company at all. All we know is that DATS inc. has been infiltrated. It's possible defusing bombs isn't DATS inc. primary purpose, and the story revolves around a company whose primary purpose has been lost.

For example, maybe DATS inc. actually stands for:

Destroy All Traitors and Scum incorporated
or
Destroy All Traitorous Scum incorporated

PEDit: StrangeMatters is already out of their scum range by the way, slight townread on StrangeMatters from me.
In post 69, Frogsterking wrote:Who gives a fuck,

Heal StrangeMatters


Did I do it right?

Also,
I will be doing Standard Survey Strategy
, so standby for questions. This time the delay is to make sure a have a laptop which can run the scoring scripts.

PEdit: Town can also give incorrect information to make the bomb defuser die.
In post 73, Frogsterking wrote:VOTE: Lukewarm

Based on my understanding of how the setup works then there is a clear scum motivation in .
In post 84, Frogsterking wrote:Tigger's iso is trash. Slight townread on Ceph.

weak townreads:
StrangeMatter
Cephrir

weak scumreads:
Lukewarm
GuiltyLion
In post 88, Frogsterking wrote:Huh I think the distraction of the theme is actually giving me more shitty early reads than usual. I'll just list them all before I start messing around with python to get my survey ready for the thread tonight.

PEdit:

weak townreads:
Cephrir
StrangeMatter
Greetings

weak scumreads:
Morning Tweet
Lukewarm
GuiltyLion

@Greetings
I like where you're headed keep going if you can! I have more of an artsy temperament than a science temperament so I think I'm most helpful to town establishing an early PoE than min maxing the mechanics, but I will try to help with both.
In post 92, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 87, StrangeMatter wrote:@Frogsterking, do you mean by I’m out of my scumrange there? I have played with you once, which to me wouldn’t be enough to know my scumgame.
It's enough if the player in question has a scumrange the size of a pea.

PEdit:

Catboi how are you using the "Heal" tag?
In post 99, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 31, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 30, StrangeMatter wrote:I don't fully understand this setup that's for sure.
Same. I assumed the bombs were mandatory because like...yeah, why would you do them otherwise????
In post 38, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 35, catboi wrote:please go read the setup again.
Fair warning, in games like this, I'll probably ask lots of dumb questions about the setup/mechanics.
scum
In post 63, Bell wrote:Their first post*
scum

My bad, Luke. UNVOTE: Luke There's probably at least one lurker scum who hasn't even said anything yet so there's no way Luke goes in the bottom of the PoE. There's also no way Luke goes in the top of the PoE because fake game solving is a part of Luke's scum range.

VP is way too self conscious compared to their town meta. This might be normal play for Bell but my intuition is that they seem way too self conscious and belong in the bottom of the PoE.
In post 110, Frogsterking wrote:Hey Menalque I'm making a full PoE list, say something townie
In post 111, Frogsterking wrote:@Tweet you too
In post 133, Frogsterking wrote:HEAL: StrangeMatter
In post 107, Greeting wrote:
In post 106, Datisi wrote:
In post 105, Greeting wrote:
@Datisi
, sorry to bother you yet again, but the rules state that town chooses the bomb experts. Is this a mistake? If not, then what happens when a scum nominates someone?

And one last question, what happens if there is a tie amongst players nominated to be bomb experts and there is more ties than spots? For instance, 5 players are tied and 4 experts are chosen.
it is not a mistake. the word "town" in that sentence refers to the collective of players, and every single player's nomination vote will be counted, regardless of their alignment.

if there are ties amongst the players nominated, they are broken by seniority; i.e. the players that got to that number of nominations first will be the experts. if, for any reason, that method of tie-breaking is not applicable, the mafia will be able to privately choose the bomb experts.
Okay, thanks. I didn't know that "town" is not referring to an alignment in this game, but to the whole of players. In that case, the previous posts by me should be discarded.
I don't think your ideas should be discarded, I think they should be improved. I think solving the mechanics is important to town winrate and is hard for scum to fake, so it helps the dayplay indirectly as well, and you seem to have some acumen for this mechanical solving.

So far I've seen three candidates for how to approach the nightplay. I think we should get a few more candidates and then focus on analyzing the implications of the top four. I've seen:

A) Defuse no bombs
B) Defuse up to three bombs
C) Each player nominates one other player as an expert

PEdit:
Tweet I don't think we've played before and I also don't recall reading any of the games you've played.

PEdit2:
Tweet we don't get to choose the "bomb defuser", only scum get to choose the "bomb defuser". Everyone gets to vote on the "Expert" who is immune from being chosen as the "bomb defuser" as well as any nightkills that nightphase

The "bomb defuser" is equal to the jailer's target as the "bomb expert" is equal to a jailer who gets to use their ability every night. The "bomb experts" are like a team of jailers where any one jailer can choose to kill the target. The team of jailers are elected by the town each dayphase in addition to the regular elimination vote and the jailer's target is chosen by the scum each twilight. If the team of jailers collectively decide to release the jailer target, the target not only lives but is given a one-shot vig ability, and the target's alignment moves one point closer to the theme's alternate win condition. Scum can choose to make themselves the jailer's target.
In post 137, Frogsterking wrote:PEdit: Good point Ceph

PoE Order Matters:
  1. Very early townreads:
  2. Frogsterking

  3. StrangeMatter

  4. Greeting



    Null + posted:
  5. Cephrir

  6. PookyTheMagicalBear

  7. The Bulge

  8. Titus

  9. Lukewarm

  10. catboi

  11. Morning Tweet

  12. Menalque



    Null + not posted:
  13. Andante

  14. The Praetorian

  15. Dwlee99

  16. Andresvmb

  17. Cat Scratch Fever


    Very early scumreads:
  18. Bell

  19. GuiltyLion

  20. VP Baltar
More info:
Order matters in every tier except Null + not posted. The Null + not posted is completely random, the other three tiers are ordered intentionally from #1 most townie to #19 least townie. I moved my weakest early townread (Ceph) and weakest early scumread (MorningTweet) to their respective positions withinin the Null + posted tier. Barring some exceptional dayplay in a good or bad direction I don't think the players in the townread tier should go anywhere near the bottom of the PoE and I don't think the players in the scumread tier should go anywhere near the top of the PoE. I think the Null + posted is more townie than the Null + not posted by about a hair length, moreso toward the top of the tier than at the bottom.
In post 140, Frogsterking wrote:VP are you OK?
In post 146, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 142, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 140, Frogsterking wrote:VP are you OK?
I have a packed work week, but yeah!


You think I shouldn't be able to read you?
You're scum by tone. And activity level. It could be NAI if there's something going on, but I think if there were something going on you would have said that at the beginning.

You haven't rolled scum in a while, have you VP?
In post 149, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 148, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 146, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 142, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 140, Frogsterking wrote:VP are you OK?
I have a packed work week, but yeah!


You think I shouldn't be able to read you?
You're scum by tone. And activity level. It could be NAI if there's something going on, but I think if there were something going on you would have said that at the beginning.

You haven't rolled scum in a while, have you VP?
I think the last time I rolled scum wasn't that long ago. Was in a multiball game that Not Mafia hosted.

What do you mean said that at the beginning? That I have a lot of work this week?
Yes. And I know what game you're referring to.

When was the last time you rolled scum before that?
In post 150, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 147, Morning Tweet wrote:i have never seen a slot like frog's in a large theme not be town, yet. the kinda person who tried to solve all 18 other players on page 10. This would be like the third time that i can remember though.
i dont like larges
Why not?
In post 169, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 151, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 149, Frogsterking wrote:Yes. And I know what game you're referring to.

When was the last time you rolled scum before that?
FWIW, I don't think my work will like super impact my ability to play the game. I was more just complaining because all my colleagues took off on spring break and I'm picking up the slack.

Um, before that, IDK. I think I rolled scum once or twice during marathon games. I have a bad memory for this kind of stuff.
What's the relevance of the last time I rolled scum?
Because for most players to be vulnerable to an early tonal read I think there needs to be some kind of reason, because a given player needs to be really tonally distinct and noticeable for another human to actually be able to perceive it in my humble opinion. Even moreso in your case where I would predict your extraversion and experience safeguard you against tonal reads. I think not rolling scum in a legit game in a long time is a great reason why you might be vulnerable to an early tonal read, and because there's a great reason why an early tonal read might be possible, I'm trusting my own observation a lot more, because I'm very sure that I'm observing a distinct tonal shift from you that's self conscious and pensive.

Also the words I bolded cause me to suspect someone might be lying coming from almost any person in pretty much any situation ever, even if I said them myself.
In post 211, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 175, StrangeMatter wrote:You can't nominate yourself, I'm here but for a short period of time before I have a flight to catch.

But I keep getting the gut feeling to be semi paranoid of Frogsterking entirely on their read on me feeling really off. I didn't get a chance to respond to that I would say even with a small scum range like mine it would be wrong to assume that I couldn't be entirely capable of more as scum, which makes me a little more suspicious of how their playing.
I understand where you're coming from I think you're a player who is vulnerable to profiling and tone reads as a rule because of your temperament, and I think reading by profiles and tone reads gets kind of shitty results in a lot of situations it just happens to be how I can play this game. I want to get a good PoE going so I'm taking some risks and trusting my read on you because I think that's what it takes for my style of play to succeed. I'm not claiming to have an in depth understanding of your game or you as a person, I'm claiming to understand a few general things about you (creative, introverted, perfectionistic) based on observations from the game we played, including things you said about yourself during and after the game, and because of those general inferences I made about your temperament I think you're playing way too open and direct here with your thoughts than you would as scum.
In post 182, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 169, Frogsterking wrote:I think not rolling scum in a legit game in a long time
I just told you I rolled scum in this game: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=88831
Also the words I bolded cause me to suspect someone might be lying coming from almost any person in pretty much any situation ever, even if I said them myself.
Don't know what to tell you on that. I don't track or even think about my games after they are over. I think it's weirder when people can be like "oh, I played with so and so in such and such a game four years ago".

I probably couldn't even tell you the name of our first game together without having to look it up or think about it very hard, and that was not long ago!
VOTE: VP Baltar

VP Baltar is scum guys I'm telling you now, please sheep my vote as soon as you townlean/townread me and don't have anyone else you strongly believe are scum.
In post 188, The Praetorian wrote:regardless i want to be an expert then bc i love ktane and i purely signed up for this minigame
HEAL: Praet
In post 248, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 159, Andante wrote:LOL so I looked at this saw like "ORDER MATTERS" and was like, how the heck did you order the non posters... like yeah I'm town, but this sounds too good to be a true list... but then you specified the non poster order doesn't matter... (Definitely a tangent, but I had a good laugh and had to share)
:mrgreen: :mrgreen:
In post 159, Andante wrote:Umm VP saying something about "I ask a lot of setup questions" felt really odd to me, like, I don't think anyone has a problem with the setup questions being adressed at the start of the game, I can go find the specific post if someone is dying to know, but it felt off.

Catboi vs Pooky was an interesting dynamic, umm not sure I want to share my thoughts there yet.
I thought it looked TvT but Catboi always looks town, not as sure about Pooky. That's why in my readslist I gave Pooky more credit for the interaction than Catboi.

I think VP is scum based on tone. Specifically VP is being self conscious and pensive. I think what VP is saying about trying to figure out the setup is true, I just scumread the way he comes off while going about it.

I'm trying to be methodical so to counter confbias I came up with three reasons I think I could be wrong: 1) VP is being really cautious because they want to get the setup mech right 2) something IRL like being in the middle of the work week or 3) I hate to say it but I think it's necessary for the whole self-disclosure credibility cycle, if VP hasn't rolled TPR in a while or they are just one of those people who play scummy when they get TPR intentionally or unintentionally, that could definitely explain what I'm observing as well, and it's important for me to recognize that on some level which I'm not good at doing yet.
In post 159, Andante wrote:^ This post feels so bad... Like, why are you asking someone why they don't like large games? what info from that answer do you want? Feels like you're just trying to "look busy"
I don't think this is fair at all?

Like I think it's fine to ask but I don't think the judgement is helpful in this case.

The main reason I asked is that I was genuinely curious why they didn't like large themes, the way their post trailed off at the end kind of looked like there might be a story there. If you look earlier MorningTweet and I established we probably haven't played together and don't know anything about each other, so I was more curious about MorningTweet themselves rather than specifically their reason for not liking large themes. I also don't agree that there is a specific kind of topic that's more likely to produce AI information, I think arguing about reads is helpful sometimes as well as just having organic conversation. In this case I had a question I wanted to ask to a player I just met and in the moment I was both curious and felt like it could be more fruitful for AI information than accusing them or asking about their reads.
In post 159, Andante wrote: And kinda with that, I believe it was Tweet that was like "I almost never see maf make a reads list like that this early" or something... I don't actually agree with much of that list, nor do I believe much work went into it, and if I had to guess, more work went into the format than the reads themselves, and like, if you're gonna repeat "THE ORDER MATTERS" like, why not give more on that? Ellaborate more on what makes someone slightly townier than someone else, cause you going "ORDER MATTERS ON MY RVS READS" means absolutely nothing... Like, you saying people at the bottom of your list can't possibly be town?? It feels really odd to me you're that confidint 100 posts into the game when most of the talk has been "idk how this works"
Lol I understand where you're coming from here. :mrgreen: Thank you for noticing the effort I put into the formatting. :wink:

I repeated "order matters" because my first question whenever I see a reads list is if the order matters between the players within each category. I've also seen enough other players ask this question after a readlist gets posted that I wanted to make sure it was clear that the order did matter. I didn't post a lot of reasons because my reads aren't based on really logical deduction yet, they're almost completely based on intuition, if not completely based on intuition, so I can come up with reasons to justify why I subjectively put one player over and another, but it feels dishonest in a way to put that in the readslist because it implies the list is driven by logic, which it really isn't.

I'm also not confident in the list as much as I'm confident in my ability to create one, and in the benefit of creating one earlier, even if it's a bit rough. I'm hoping we will be able to make a townblock which can work together and construct a more accurate PoE via a readslist.

That being said, which parts of my readslist do you think could be made better?
In post 251, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 244, Andante wrote:a few of these avatars are blending together and I skimmed some posts,
That reminds me that I had another idea I was meaning to try in these large games about posting a visual representation of the town with everyone's avatars kind of like Datisi's triangle thing. I thought it would help keep the players straight by remembering "these five people live on this street, these five people live on this street," etc.


Game 2: Newbie 2089 - Town

Spoiler:
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:
In post 6, KittyTacky wrote:My first first post!

Hello everyone. I now realize I should have inned as a SE because I have a few games under my belt already...
Cool we have an armada of SEs this game.

VOTE: yolohammer doesnt sound like a newbie name.

I have a supplemental D1 start method called the SSS (standard survey start). I think it might be better after the RVS is over rather than right at the start of the game. I'll probably post it around 10-12 pages in.
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:I'm still procrastinating on posting the SSS.
In post 68, ProgoWoshua wrote:
In post 67, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 62, ProgoWoshua wrote:
In post 61, NorwegianboyEE wrote:ProgoWoshua you gonna come in?
Don’t be shy! Come and say hi!
I’ve got tea and crackers setting up on the fly.
I'm a little busy right now. But I pretend to respond to Daniel's strategy soon.
You mean this? I'm not sure why they said pretend, I assume they are joking.
I meant "intend". Sorry.
Wow this is a really, really unfortunate slip if you're town. This looks like a consciousness of guilt slip.

VOTE: ProgoWoshua

TistDaniel seems obvtown and I'm just going to leave it at that.
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:
In post 73, NorwegianboyEE wrote:What on earth is an conciousness of guilt slip and why would that ever happen.
Consciousness of guilt is one of the main foundations of scumhunting. It's one of the reasons players change behavior between alignment and is accepted in court of law:

https://nycourts.gov/judges/evidence/4- ... _Guilt.pdf

As for why a slip like this can happen, there was something else I was looking for but I found this first which is interesting and comes from a different approach:

https://pubs.asha.org/doi/10.1044/jshr.2203.421 (abstract of 1979 study on priming)

In the cognitive psych and neuropsych world I'd say that while tired and distracted we have less ability to inhibit our autopilot.
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:
In post 82, Dunnstral wrote:I don't think consciousness of guilt is the right terminology for what is being accused of being a slip, it seems to be something different
Yeah I was wondering
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:
In post 89, ProgoWoshua wrote:This is far from being the only false cognate between Portuguese and English, but it's the only one I have a problem with. For some reason, main brain has fixated on it and I'll misuse it if I'm not careful.

Yes, it is annoying.

This is the third time I've made this mistake in this site alone,
and this is only my second game!
In post 88, ProgoWoshua wrote:
In post 73, NorwegianboyEE wrote:What on earth is an conciousness of guilt slip and why would that ever happen.
Portuguese word for "Intends" = "Pretende".
This is a great explanation UNVOTE: ProgoWoshua
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:
In post 102, ProgoWoshua wrote:When I made the same mistake last game, only one person made a big deal out of it, and she was town. So I'm not read to suspect Frogsterking and ofmercia just yet.
This is pretty townie, I think if ProgoWoshua were scum they have the choice of leaving this post out and pushing ofmercia or I later.
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:
In post 117, TistDaniel wrote:Sorry, meant to say "some fields of research, such as *personality* research"
You're going to like my next post a lot more then
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:TistDaniel is campaigning for the night kill with their D1 play. Following best play from everyone they're going to be the night kill unless their reads are really bad.

My SSS project which contains the five factor model personality stuff I think TistDaniel was mentioning earlier is still on the way. I might be able to post it tonight.

If anyone is wondering I'm pretty sure Progowoshua and TistDaniel are town. I briefly FoSed ofmercia but now I think they're null and I need to think about it. I have one right now FoS but it's kind of weird.
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:
Yes we can do it.

What did you like about Norwee?
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:
In post 182, fwogcarf wrote:
In post 181, Frogsterking wrote:
Yes we can do it.

What did you like about Norwee?
I like their reactions to the "slip" along with their engagement with ofmercia. I think their solving style is townie and I really like how they went through with their ofmercia vote. I also think that their prodding of frogo is townie because it's someone trying to get discussion started up.
Okay, do you remember how to read a players iso?

Can you find a player's iso in this game who seems to have the most consistent train of thought from post to post, and player who seems to have the least consistent train of thought from post to post?
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:I finished reading the isos. VOTE: KittyTacky,
FoS
Dunnstral for the partner by PoE.
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:
In post 185, KittyTacky wrote:Both Tist and Norwe are probably town. I played with scum Norwe a while ago and he was... different. Like less talkative? Snarkier? I don't quite remember how but it was a different style.
Okay that's good to know. Do you have a read on Auto or Dunnst yet?
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:
In post 170, NorwegianboyEE wrote:VOTE: Frogsterking
Looking back on it, i think their "oh you slipped" stuff on ProgoWoshua was pretty opportunistic so i want to vote here. They unvote later of course, but that is after negative thread response so i don't give it very much credit.
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:
In post 188, ofmercia wrote:
Is this the survey strat?
:mrgreen:

Nah you will know when you see it
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:I apologize for my lurking. I think I've kept fairly well read on this game.

I think frognworth and KittyTacky are likely to flip scum. VOTE: frognworth I'm down to wagon either.

I think Dunnstral/StrangeMatters and AutoDefennstrel are the limbait slots who are are likely to be easy pushes who flip town.

I think Progo put enough effort into their posts that it's sort of making his life difficult as scum so I think he's town. I think Norwee's vote on me and paranoia of my slot is likely to come from town and some of his posts were too helpful I think for if he were playing scum. And I also am not paranoid of Tist who I think is town.

Then I think ofmercia's play is slightly more aggressive than the other players at this table which can sometimes lead to getting his slot scum read, and in my experience, kind of like the limbait slots, he's likely to flip town.

So then I just have frognworth and KittyTacky left and I read through their isos and I see hanging back, pushing easy slots while staying on the sidelanes, posting just enough to get slightly townread. I'm somewhat confident there's at least 1 scum between KittyTacky and frognworth.
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:
In post 341, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Frognworth is who?
fwogcarf
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:
In post 345, NorwegianboyEE wrote:…would you please?
Yes! Do you agree/disagree with my scum reads?
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:
In post 347, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Don’t see why you think Auto is limbait.
Doesn't post much, paranoid of a popular town read.
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote: and are more believable to me on a qualitative level than the positions being taken by fwog and Kitty.
Subject: Newbie 2089 | Endgame
Frogsterking wrote:I really dislike how fwog and Kitty feel like they put just enough effort in to get slightly town read, and how they're both presently posed with their outted scum reads to sheep whichever limbait town goes for EoD.


Game 3: Flavors of Elmer's Glue - Mafia

Spoiler:
In post 7, Frogsterking wrote:VOTE: Mala because if they don't get wagoned D1 it will be a ca-Malaty!! :mrgreen:

I will be posting my SSS (Standard Survey Strategy) once I verify the scoring scripts for it are working.

I've received some feedback on reading N_M so I will be of some use in that department. We've only got 9 players so let's get a solid PoE set up and we'll win the game.
In post 11, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 8, Kcdaspot wrote:VOTE: frogsterking

1 random question: what kind of glue everybody eat?

for me: chimkin
Gorilla Glue
In post 12, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 11, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 8, Kcdaspot wrote:VOTE: frogsterking

1 random question: what kind of glue everybody eat?

for me: chimkin
Gorilla Glue
Got em
In post 17, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 15, Andante wrote:the only kind of glue I've even used recently was stick glue.. hahahaha
Aaaaaaand that's what she said

Got em :mrgreen:
In post 18, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 10, MegAzumarill wrote:
In post 8, Kcdaspot wrote:VOTE: frogsterking

1 random question: what kind of glue everybody eat?

for me: chimkin
salt

VOTE: frogster
U are not frog u are scary bear

Hmm..
In post 20, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 17, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 15, Andante wrote:the only kind of glue I've even used recently was stick glue.. hahahaha
Aaaaaaand that's what she said

Got em :mrgreen:
In post 19, Andante wrote:yeah idk what I'm missing... but I don't get it lol
Come again??
In post 23, Frogsterking wrote::doc: Oops :doc:
In post 25, Frogsterking wrote:For some reason this reminds me of the joke that's like a picture of a newspaper:

Doctor Amputates Wrong Leg!

Doctor says "Oops"
In post 32, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 24, Kcdaspot wrote:i hereby demand that your avi be monokuma looking dumb for the rest of the game.

mebbe like with a duncecap or something.
Hmm
In post 33, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 32, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 24, Kcdaspot wrote:i hereby demand that your avi be monokuma looking dumb for the rest of the game.

mebbe like with a duncecap or something.
Hmm
Alright it's done; I'll keep this avi and sig until the end of the game.
In post 28, Malakittens wrote:
In post 25, Frogsterking wrote:For some reason this reminds me of the joke that's like a picture of a newspaper:

Doctor Amputates Wrong Leg!

Doctor says "Oops"
I mean it just makes you look like a terrible person. :shifty:
:cool: .. :lol: .. :o .. :oops: .. :shifty:
In post 39, Frogsterking wrote:VOTE: Enchant seems scummy this game
In post 42, Frogsterking wrote:Things change you know what
In post 43, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 28, Malakittens wrote:you look like a terrible person.
Yes and am I a terrible person you can trust? Confucius says: To trust or not to trust, this is the question
In post 44, Frogsterking wrote:UNVOTE: Enchant changed my mind
In post 46, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 45, Enchant wrote:
In post 44, Frogsterking wrote:UNVOTE: Enchant changed my mind
SEE?

SEE?

CHARISMA.
Enchantment
In post 48, Frogsterking wrote:I feel like my shadow self is taking over. It's telling me who to vote.
In post 50, Frogsterking wrote:I will appreciate it if everyone takes my pro-town new survey strategy when I post it, the Standard Survey Strategy.
In post 103, Frogsterking wrote:I was waiting for a Beetlejuice but no one called my name.

I'm still working on the scripts for my survey strategy.
In post 105, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 89, Enchant wrote:
In post 77, Andante wrote: like, excuse me... half this table legit isn't doing anything
That's not true, i breathing.
I think Enchant seems informed here
In post 106, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 104, JacksonVirgo wrote:
In post 103, Frogsterking wrote:I was waiting for a Beetlejuice but no one called my name.

I'm still working on the scripts for my survey strategy.
Saying this is useless and annoying. Post it soon or quit talking about it completely
I have until page 10


Game 4: Weiqi, Baduk, Go - Mafia

Spoiler:
In post 8, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 7, Yeet wrote:I apologize for holding up the game. Good luck to the mafia.
VOTE: Yeet

Why was there such a long delay? What did you do?
In post 12, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 10, Yeet wrote:My account name of “maozedong” was not accepted by the mods, so they told me to change the name of my account.
Sounds a little far fetched!
In post 24, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 14, Yeet wrote:Ah, yeah I will have to do that at some point. I’m currently on my phone in bed but I will do that the next time I get to a computer (will probably be tomorrow evening after work).
I'm not joking! I think your slot is a scum power role who is required to be present or the game risks becoming mechanically unfair to the scum team.
In post 31, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 22, skitter30 wrote:
In post 12, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 10, Yeet wrote:My account name of “maozedong” was not accepted by the mods, so they told me to change the name of my account.
Sounds a little far fetched!
What are you implying / was your initial vote serious?
In post 24, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 14, Yeet wrote:Ah, yeah I will have to do that at some point. I’m currently on my phone in bed but I will do that the next time I get to a computer (will probably be tomorrow evening after work).
I'm not joking! I think your slot is a scum power role who is required to be present or the game risks becoming mechanically unfair to the scum team.
I'm being serious I think the setup was delayed because it's balanced mechanically around a very powerful scum power role and the player who got this role never confirmed!
In post 40, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 25, Yeet wrote:Indeed I am saddened as well. However both he and the current leader of China are very controversial figures, so I understand the sentiment behind the sanction.
In post 27, Yeet wrote:I suspect that Frogsterking is aligned with the town.
Now I'm worried that Fool is a role in large normals?

Yeet is talking about depressing non-game related topics and is townreading me despite doing nothing but instantly shading their slot unironically at start of game.

Is Maedong or whoever an alt of NM?
In post 47, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 42, fireisredsir wrote:VOTE: frogsterking for making the first thread of serious conversation in this game be a really dumb one
fireisred trying to shut down scumhunting during start of day noted
In post 53, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 49, tenebrousluminary wrote:Salutations. Yeet and any others whom it may concern, you may call me teneb or tl if that is easier. I also respond to "hey you."

I would like to think that the game delay is notsomething we should read into, so I won't.
Okay can you elaborate?
In post 71, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 52, skitter30 wrote:
In post 40, Frogsterking wrote:Yeet is talking about depressing non-game related topics and is townreading me despite doing nothing but instantly shading their slot unironically at start of game.
What? How are they depressing non-game topics and do you object to me/dats saying your entrance was +town and why is shading their slow unironically scummy (and i'm not sure they were even shading their slot either ...)

~

not sure i like
It's non game related for TOWN because it doesn't help with scumhunting, I think it's believable you and Dats +town my entrance so I'm not objecting to it OR returning you or Dats +town back because it could just be a pocket attempt from you.
In post 75, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 66, Yeet wrote:I can guarantee at least one scum has posted.
How could you know this?
In post 88, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 86, GeneralWu wrote:The forum software this website uses is pretty old, right?
Yes
In post 91, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 87, fireisredsir wrote:why does frogster sound so NEW, it's weird vibes for a 2011 join date
Shade or curious?
In post 135, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 83, skitter30 wrote:After readinf multiple times, i actually dont think i got any clarity from it >.>

Why is it more believeable that me/dats would townbin you than for yeet to do the same thing?

~

Nai = non alignment indicative

In other words i'm saying what dats has done thus far is neither townie nor scummy for him
Okay so in I'm saying I would often consider anyone approaching me the way you did like "hey me and this other person think you're +town" to be a scumtell and reject the read. The way you asked me just now in seems so believable I'm not scumreading you for it AND still I'm too cynical of being pocketed to even give you a potential town lean for it.

I just noticed in you also asked why Yeet is unironically scummy for townreading me despite my only actions being to shade Yeet. I don't know how to answer that other than that I don't think it's a very believable/common reaction from a townie for Yeet to play like that?
In post 142, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 101, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 91, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 87, fireisredsir wrote:why does frogster sound so NEW, it's weird vibes for a 2011 join date
Shade or curious?
no offense meant, new isn't bad. but when the way you are approaching and interacting with the game doesn't line up with how i would think an experienced player would, it could be cause you feel awkward and have trouble engaging genuinely as maf.

but on the other hand, if you are more new (and looks like you don't have a ton of games played actually) then it makes you make more sense to me
Okay I understand now, I think you're scumhunting because you already followed up by checking my # games played
In post 145, Frogsterking wrote:
Vote Yeet
In post 150, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 136, GeneralWu wrote:
In post 131, Yeet wrote:
In post 125, GeneralWu wrote:I don't think skitter is scummy for saying what she did about Datisi.
It sounds pretty normal to me. While not everyone here is completely familiar with Datisi's playstyle, I don't think it's scummy for skitter to suggest that Datisi's posts are NAI.
The point was not that she suggested his posts are NAI - that is what I expect town skitter to do. And I’m sure she knew that part, regardless of what her alignment is. The point is that she started it with disbelief that he was getting pressure from players who don’t know him, knowing full well that she is using her experience with Datisi to sort him.

She saw an opportunity to make a read (fake content) that she would as town and slipped up in how she presented it.
Maybe she just thought that other players would see the same things she did, but it turned out that they didn't.
noted for being potentially a town tell, a scum tell, or both!
In post 164, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 158, skitter30 wrote:
In post 135, Frogsterking wrote:Okay so in 71 I'm saying I would often consider anyone approaching me the way you did like "hey me and this other person think you're +town" to be a scumtell and reject the read. The way you asked me just now in 52 seems so believable I'm not scumreading you for it AND still I'm too cynical of being pocketed to even give you a potential town lean for it.

I just noticed in 52 you also asked why Yeet is unironically scummy for townreading me despite my only actions being to shade Yeet. I don't know how to answer that other than that I don't think it's a very believable/common reaction from a townie for Yeet to play like that?
I dont really understand any of this either ...
.. :mrgreen:

awkward :nerd:
In post 178, Frogsterking wrote:
Okay following I feel compelled to share wu is a townlean for me unironically.


Well folks, I think my work here is done.
In post 186, Frogsterking wrote:
@Wu


Wu sheep my vote on Yeet if you're town. Yeet's slot is scummy, Yeet is stumbling the daystart, and I don't want my Yeet wagon to be arbitrarily abandoned
In post 194, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 183, GeneralWu wrote:
In post 178, Frogsterking wrote:
Okay following I feel compelled to share wu is a townlean for me unironically.


Well folks, I think my work here is done.
Dang
How did you conclude that
I think and are more likely to come from town because they're unassuming and open up lines of discussion! :mrgreen:
In post 206, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 197, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 194, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 183, GeneralWu wrote:
In post 178, Frogsterking wrote:
Okay following I feel compelled to share wu is a townlean for me unironically.


Well folks, I think my work here is done.
Dang
How did you conclude that
I think and are more likely to come from town because they're unassuming and open up lines of discussion! :mrgreen:
163 is not towny, fluff is not discussion. i don't think it's very scummy either but maf has more motivation to try to make friends than town does
Huh do you mind elaborating why maf have more motivation to make friends than town? I'm going for a walk but I'll be back soon.


There is a lot of data there, I will highlight what I find important:

The biggest point here is that Frogsterking posts a lot more when they are town. I'm not talking simply post count, which is also true, but the verbosity of the posts themselves. A casual side-by-side comparison is enough to reveal that their posts are quite lengthier as town, whereas when Frogsterking rolls mafia they tend to post a lot of shorter posts, including a lot of one-liners.

Here is their iso for this game:

Spoiler:
In post 30, Frogsterking wrote:You guys seem like a lobby who want to try my Standard Survey Start (SSS).
In post 36, Frogsterking wrote:Okay on a skim by the way I scum read Dunnstral.
In post 37, Frogsterking wrote:VOTE: Dunnstral
In post 44, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 43, Alexcellent wrote:
In post 36, Frogsterking wrote:Okay on a skim by the way I scum read Dunnstral.
Why?
He's just voting some person for no reason and lurking and barely saying anything.
In post 53, Frogsterking wrote:Let's hammer Dunn IMO
In post 57, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 54, Dunnstral wrote:Frogsterking, do you think you play differently at the start of a game when you are mafia compared to when you are town?
In post 55, Dunnstral wrote:Frogsterking, do you have any thoughts about the setup? Optimal strategy, any plans for what to do, etc.?
Dunn if you want me to Town read you then get a real scum read.


What we have seen so far leans heavily towards how Frogsterking has played mafia in the past, and does not look similar to how they've played as town.

Next I looked at their early game pushes. I found it notable that in the 4th game they manufactured a reason to vote for somebody early and then focused heavily on that player in several of their next few posts. This behavior is not seen in either of their town games, where their focus is a lot more broad. I think that the third game falls somewhere in between; their focus feels more narrow than in the town games, but they are more willing to move their vote around as well.

It is my opinion then that Frogsterking is somewhat easy to read as their play seems to be rather distinct, and it seems that nobody else has caught onto this yet. That would make them mafia in this game.

VOTE: Frogsterking

I find their jumping in front of a bullet for Bambi Jay notable.
I'm catching up but yeaaaa Dunn is town. This doesn't feel fake able. In terms of frog, no idea yet but they are on the lower end of null
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kutiplz
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Joined: June 14, 2022
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Post Post #95 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:46 am

Post by kutiplz »

In post 91, GuiltyLion wrote:oh I think kuti is town too
Wait why
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Post Post #96 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:49 am

Post by Ph0enix »

Will catch up in a bit.
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Post Post #97 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:51 am

Post by Bambi Jay »

How would I derp clear myself? I literally just wanted clarification. Even if I was evil or town I still wanna know how the setup actually works.
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Post Post #98 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 12:23 pm

Post by Ph0enix »

In post 87, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 60, Ph0enix wrote:Not sure that's enough justification to place a vote tbh.


It appears we're out or RVS by now, so...

UNVOTE:
I'm not sure if this is AI or just playstyle friction but I strongly, strongly dislike this unvote, and the motivation in it as well as the comment preceding. Voting is always better than not voting. While reasoning for scumreads is obviously good, I don't like the implication here that you need to meet a certain standard of evidence/justification for a vote. Game is in a low info state and the best way to create info is to vote, create wagons, force people into taking stances. Sitting around not voting anyone and dismissing potentially good leads keeps the game in a low-info state.
I don't know what to tell you, it may be a playstyle thing. I don't think votes are necessary to create info, I don't feel more pressured now that there's 2 votes on me than I would have been if you and Galron had written your posts with the same content but without the votes themselves.
GuiltyLion wrote:And what do you think the point of RVS is if you're just going to unvote once "we're out" of it and go nowhere with it afterwards?
I see no point leaving a vote that was made in the first post of the game with no reasoning behind it, now that there's enough content generated that votes are no longer without reason. Unvoting does not mean I'm "going nowhere with it".
GuiltyLion wrote: I see in you don't seem to be scumreading Dunnstral, so what is the point of your comment on his vote? Why are you dismissing an attempt to pressure another player? If you aren't suspicious of Dunn's motivations then commenting like this on his vote feels to me like you're more interested in sounding reasonable or fair than you are in finding and pressuring scum.
That's fair, in hindsight I probably should have followed up and asked why she thought Bambi's misunderstanding when it comes to the setup is reason enough to vote her in and of itself. Though as it appears it's my playstyle that I have to adjust and be more aggressive with voting, as placing a vote apparently doesn't carry the same weight that it does in my head, which would render my comment on Dunn's vote obsolete.
GuiltyLion wrote:I think Alexcellent and Galron are town
GuiltyLion wrote: very much giving me vibes/profiile of scum trying to get their foothold in the game by asking basic questions and making safe/non-controversial comments, while not actually taking any
real
initiative to pursue reads or sort players.
This part I can't get behind. These two statements contradict one another. If I'm the one that's asking basic questions and making comments while not taking initiative to sort players, what's Galron been doing? How is he Town in your eyes based on current information, when his posts so far offer no real substance imo. (I'm not talking about Alex here, cause I think his posts have provided enough thus far given the limited information he's working with, as the rest of us.) It appears my asking questions and making comments is the reason you are SR-ing me while TR-ing Galron, cause that's the main difference between their posts and mine. Which wouldn't make sense - surely asking basic questions is better than nothing.
GuiltyLion wrote: is another example in addition to what I said about , a non-comment comment, "I don't like meta but I agree with your meta finding", that does not strike me as a comment that comes from a real intention to solve
Would be a fair argument, if the statement of mine you are referring to and the following one I'm going to quote were any different in substance, which they are not:
GuiltyLion wrote:I think Alexcellent and Galron are town

I am going to wait for Frog to respond to Dunn before I fully weigh in on that case, but I will say I think Dunn's point about Frog's focus being more narrow in his scum games than the town games is the more compelling argument to me.
My point was that, indeed, there seems to be a pattern when it comes to Frogster's posting frequency and the content of his posts based on his alignment and that pattern is something worth considering. You are not saying anything different than me here, the only thing different is that you are leaning slightly towards taking Dunn's side in the argument as of now (correct me if I'm wrong), while I'm not doing so yet.

As for Galron's playstyle itself, it bugs me, however I don't think it's AI as well, I understand that not all players enjoy writing walls of text in flashy colors as I tend to do. Furthermore, GL is my primary SR as of now based on the fact that I think his argument regarding my playstyle, due to which he voted me, is severely flawed and that he's trying to make something out of nothing and start a wagon on me. In that case, I don't think scum!Galron ever jumps on the wagon with no reasoning whatsoever like he did, it's too suboptimal of a play for me to consider. That's why I'm TR-ing Galron for now.

VOTE: GuiltyLion
kutiplz wrote:
In post 91, GuiltyLion wrote:oh I think kuti is town too
Wait why
+1
kutiplz wrote: I'm catching up but yeaaaa Dunn is town. This doesn't feel fake able.
Hard, hard disagree on that one. I don't understand why everyone is jumping to conclusions that it doesn't feel fakeable. As I said in a previous post, I get that Town players will naturally be more willing to push the conservation forward and so doing all this digging may be a slight TR, hence why I put Dunn as a possible slight TR in said post. However, to think that it's strongly Town indicative, let alone not fakeable, I can't get behind. Why would it not be fakeable? Why would Scum not spend some time digging if it apparently means a safe TR from some of the other players?
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Post Post #99 (ISO) » Thu Jul 21, 2022 12:25 pm

Post by Ph0enix »

I'm signing off for today, I'll check the game again in the morning.
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