Large Normal 240: Baileyposting [game over]

[Crescent]

Though I would say the possibility is more likely if Fred is town, because it makes it more likely Unsure is town as well.

If they're both town, he's essentially tunneling a town counterwagon to a leading town train, while passively defending said town vote leader, but not really attempting to stop it's momentum. He's like, exactly where I'd want to place myself as scum if Fred and Unsure are both town - This looked perfectly set up to vote them off back to back.


I don't scum read him, but I also don't trust him.

[Crescent]

Also I've got to get to work so no time to even think of doing anything rash.

[Andante]

ok so, what the heck are we doing with this game right now?

[Andante]

Anyone not voting fred, tell me right now why you TR Fred

[Vivax]

Anyone not voting fred, tell me right now why you TR Fred

He's on team truth, not team liars

[Andante]

if yall are so opposed to a Fred wagon, we could go get UNO, but no one really saying/doing anything... like helloooooo do we need a lim to happen for yall to show up and do literally anything? Or can yall tell me why Fred is town?

Reminder: Fred posted 3 VCs in a row that weren't fully accurate, and made a "reads" thing for "A and B can't be partners" in a 17p game. on DAY 1... if that stuff isn't just busywork to look busy idk what is

[Andante]

Anyone not voting fred, tell me right now why you TR Fred

He's on team truth, not team liars

I need more than that

[Vivax]

Anyone not voting fred, tell me right now why you TR Fred

He's on team truth, not team liars

I need more than that

You mean you don't

[Crescent]

I have a small amount of time before I enter the cold abyss and basically go dead to the world for a couple of hours, and I want to quickly sum up some thoughts.

I have reasons to scumread both Fred and Enchant, but don't think they're scum together.

I think knowing Fred's alignment will significantly help towards solving the game.

I believe an Enchant scumflip virtually townclears Fred, and we get his alignment anyway, but we don't get much at all from am Enchant townflip.

I generally don't play "spicy", but I didn't play spicy in 2273, and then Corwin threw a solved game.

Time to freeze weeeee

[Prince of Paterson]

Townreads

Vivax
Gamma Emerald/bugspray
Crescent
Greeting

Townleans

UNOwen
Andante
Malakittens/Dwlee (weak read, mostly gut)
geraintm (weak read, mostly gut)
Lowell (only due to bugspray's result)

Of the 5 remaining slots, I don't feel that strongly about any of them being scum. I'd like to see what Fredrick flips, because I think even if he's town it will be pretty informative, but I can't say that I'm fully confident in him being scum. I think his lack of ability to produce substantial reads or nuance does point to him being more likely scum, but some of his posts have felt genuine.

Enchant is difficult to read. I townread their first few posts, but I don't feel that as strongly with anything since then. I could believe they're scum due to the limited focus on actual sorting or reads, and more on joking around and being present.

Firebringer I have felt at times could have an agenda. They seem perfectly capable of sheeping Pooky on a correct scumread in order to bus and then pivot that into a nightkill on Pooky and then attempting to take control of a mostly apathetic game. I don't think I actively scumread anything they've posted, but their positioning concerns me. Could easily be scum with Malcolm, as 1035 feels lightly partnered to me.

Unsure I like a lot better than FancyPants, but that may be due to playstyle. FancyPants I had a slight gut scumread despite their opinions on the game mostly aligning with my own at the time, but Unsure's approach after replacing in felt good to me. Looking back at the actual action they took, though, I think it could easily be partnered with Meg.

MalcolmTucker I felt could be scum from his day 1 play, but his posts early on day 2 felt to me like a genuine town approach to solving the game and it didn't feel like he had a plan at all. There hasn't been anything since then to townread, though, so I don't want to give that too much weight.

[Prince of Paterson]

yeet

Fredrick A Campbell [5]:

bugspray, Greeting, geraintm, Andante, Prince of Paterson

Andante [4]:

MegAzumarill, Vivax, MalcolmTucker, Enchant

MegAzumarill [2]:

PookyTheMagicalBear, Lowell

UNOwen [1]:

Fredrick A Campbell

Vivax [1]:

UNOwen

not voting [4]:

Firebringer, Dwlee99, Crescent, FancyPants

yeet

Fredrick A Campbell [4]:

bugspray, geraintm, Prince of Paterson, Lowell

FancyPants [4]:

Vivax, Enchant, MegAzumarill, Fredrick A Campbell

MegAzumarill [4]:

PookyTheMagicalBear, Greeting, Firebringer, UNOwen

MalcolmTucker [2]:

FancyPants, Andante

Andante [1]:

MalcolmTucker

Enchant [1]:

Dwlee99

not voting [1]:

Crescent

yeet

MegAzumarill [4]:

PookyTheMagicalBear, Greeting, Firebringer, UNOwen

UNOwen [3]:

Enchant, Fredrick A Campbell, Vivax

Andante [1]:

MalcolmTucker

MalcolmTucker [1]:

Andante

Fredrick A Campbell [1]:

bugspray

PookyTheMagicalBear [1]:

Prince of Paterson

Prince of Paterson [1]:

Lowell

FancyPants [1]:

MegAzumarill

Enchant [1]:

Dwlee99

not voting [3]:

Crescent, geraintm, FancyPants

yeet

MegAzumarill [7]:

PookyTheMagicalBear, Greeting, Firebringer, UNOwen, geraintm, Lowell, Prince of Paterson

bugspray [4]:

Fredrick A Campbell, Enchant, Vivax, Unsure

Andante [1]:

MalcolmTucker

MalcolmTucker [1]:

Andante

Fredrick A Campbell [1]:

bugspray

Enchant [1]:

Dwlee99

Lowell [1]:

MegAzumarill

not voting [1]:

Crescent

Here is why I think a Fredrick flip would be both a high chance of being scum and also informative.

- In the first of these VCs, I townread or townlean all 5 on the Fredrick wagon. 2 of the 4 people on the second wagon, on Andante, are in my pool of 5 most likely scum. A third is Meg, a flipped scum.

- In the second VC, I townread or townlean all 4 on the Fredrick wagon. I townread 3 of the 4 people on the Meg wagon. 2 of the 4 people on the third wagon, on FancyPants, are in my pool of 5 most likely scum. A third is Meg, a flipped scum.

- In the third VC, I townread or townlean 3 of the 4 on the Meg wagon. 2 of the 3 people on the second wagon, on UNOwen, are in my pool of 5 most likely scum.

- In the fourth VC, I townread or townlean 6 of the 7 on the Meg wagon. 3 of the 4 people on the second wagon, on bugspray, are in my pool of 5 most likely scum.

Consistently, I townread or townlean the people pushing Fredrick early in day 1, and the people who I think are most likely to be scum are seen pushing the counterwagons. If Fredrick flips town, I would expect that at least one of my townreads is wrong, as the scum likely would not all be grouping up on the counterwagon to a leading wagon on town. I include the third and fourth VCs to show that again, members of the same pool of 5 show up on the bugspray counterwagon to Meg.

There are a total of 4 different players here that show up as counterwagons to either Fredrick or Meg: Andante, FancyPants, UNOwen, and bugspray. The people voting these wagons are as follows:
- MegAzumarill: 2x
- Vivax: 4x
- MalcolmTucker: 1x
- Enchant: 4x
- Fredrick A Campbell: 3x
- Unsure: 1x

That's the complete list. A total of 15 votes cast on 4 different people, with 13 of those votes being cast by only 4 individuals. All of them on a wagon that was secondary to either Fredrick or Meg. I don't think that level of consistent movement of votes is natural. Even if Fredrick is town, I think there's likely still something going on here, it's just less straightforward. And the easy answer is just that Fredrick is scum, Meg was scum, and at least 1 or 2 of their partners are among this group. The final one likely decided to bus early, seeing the position scum were in, and I would put my money on Firebringer.

I should also note that Vivax shows up on these wagons every time too. I don't think this is especially damning for him, as I've felt since early on that he is town who is often overconfident and often wrong, which is exactly the type of town that mafia would want to hide behind and join their pushes. However, it should be noted, because if he survives to endgame, depending on the flips it could be worth giving him another look.

[Vivax]

VOTE: Fredrick A Campbell

I'm convinced. Nice effort.

[Andante]

Anyone not voting fred, tell me right now why you TR Fred

He's on team truth, not team liars

What happened to team truth earlier?

[Vivax]

Anyone not voting fred, tell me right now why you TR Fred

He's on team truth, not team liars

What happened to team truth earlier?

How much earlier?
We got launched.

[Vivax]

Didn't say which way

[Datisi]

vote count 2.07

with 15 votes in play, it takes 8 to make a decision. day 2 ends in (expired on 2022-07-27 13:15:00).

yeet

Fredrick A Campbell [5]:

Prince of Paterson, Gamma Emerald, UNOwen, Andante, Vivax

Enchant [2]:

Fredrick A Campbell, Lowell

Unsure [1]:

Greeting

Malakittens [1]:

Firebringer

MalcolmTucker [1]:

Unsure

Firebringer [1]:

geraintm

not voting [4]:

MalcolmTucker, Malakittens, Enchant, Crescent

mod notes

~ this is a mod note.

flavour

[Vivax]

I see insanity and raise you even more insanity

So, a relative I'm living with has tested positive for COVID-19 on a self-test kit. I'm having a little more phlagm then usual but am otherwise feeling fine. Here's hoping I'm not infected.

Quite fine luck isn't it if I do get infected. One bout of food poisoning followed shortly by another round of food poisoning caused by a foul-smelling prawn and then COVID-19.

[geraintm]

I should also note that Vivax shows up on these wagons every time too. I don't think this is especially damning for him, as I've felt since early on that he is town who is often overconfident and often wrong, which is exactly the type of town that mafia would want to hide behind and join their pushes. However, it should be noted, because if he survives to endgame, depending on the flips it could be worth giving him another look.

my experience with vivax in my last game are so totally different to this one. there they were shitposting townie, only marginally more useful than not mafia. this game....theyve attempted to be an actual functional member of society.

if it werent for so many people coasting so far today, the flip of fred seems worth it for the level of info it will gain. i just dont want to do it yet, because otherwise we end up day 3 and 4 with certain people having zero presence in the game and we end up either eliminating only vocal players or forced to go after those who have effectivly dodged the entire game

[Vivax]

I'm just glad about three days of rain and thunder so far.
I've heard it's unbearably hot around the world.

[Greeting]

I am going on V/LA for the next few days. I uphold my reads I gave so far.

If by the time I get back

Fredrick A Campbell

is at E-1, I will announce intent to hammer and hammer against my better judgement, for the simple reason that it's best to eliminate someone than no one and this still seems to be the choice of most townies. Given the way Day 2 is going, realistically I don't see any other solution, and I would name

Fredrick A Campbell

as a townlean, not a townread too.

Hi

Gamma Emerald

.

And yes,

Crescent

, I worked with both you and

Vivax

, because both of you are active and both of you are my hard townreads. And if you don't trust me and think I'm a deepwolf because I'm good at emulating towniness (it is true, I am good at it), then look at whether my actions have harmed or benefitted town in this game. Not only did I vote out

Meg

, but also I'm not afraid to build my own case on Day 2. If

Fredrick A Campbell

flips red, it's going to be embarrassing for me as I keep defending him and pushing for a counterwagon, but I still keep doing it, because I think he's more likely town than mafia and I'm doing what I think is best for town.

And yes, the last days here in Europe have been really awful when it comes to heat. What's worst is that this is just the beginning, and the summers of the future will be looking like that thanks to climate change.

[MalcolmTucker]

if yall are so opposed to a Fred wagon, we could go get UNO, but no one really saying/doing anything... like helloooooo do we need a lim to happen for yall to show up and do literally anything? Or can yall tell me why Fred is town?

Reminder: Fred posted 3 VCs in a row that weren't fully accurate, and made a "reads" thing for "A and B can't be partners" in a 17p game. on DAY 1... if that stuff isn't just busywork to look busy idk what is

Increasingly convinced this is probably worth going for. Initially I felt like it was a bit too easy, but seeing the current vote count, feels like it's surprisingly low given the minimal resistance. Almost as if scum won't vote there but are too wary to get mega defensive after D1.

[Crescent]

Isn't Fred -2 again after Vivax voted him?

[Crescent]

Oh wait Lowell's vote also moved off of him.

Fred dropped all the way from -1 to -4 huh.

[Gamma Emerald]

The game was dying. We had 2 replacements out for inactivity and thr game just seems paused as even the replacements come in and claim they'll jot be posting any time soon.

wtf??? Where did I say I wouldn’t be posting?

[Crescent]

The game was dying. We had 2 replacements out for inactivity and thr game just seems paused as even the replacements come in and claim they'll jot be posting any time soon.

wtf??? Where did I say I wouldn’t be posting?

You already have about half as many posts in the game as the two people who got replaced today did all game!