Large Normal 240: Baileyposting [game over]

[Vivax]

least likey* >_<

[Unsure]

Why doesn't what you said apply to Firebringer?

"Votecount analysis is easy to manipulate. If you see Crescent, Andante and

Prince

coming in with the oomph wagon on Meg, you might want to start to cover your butt if you don't feel like fighting."

I get Greeting but her vote wasn't that critical to the elimination and we already see she can be inflexible with her reads. I've yet to deepdive her meta but if that's NAI then Greeting can still be scum. What makes Firebringer the least likeliest busser?

Crescent wasn't even coming in with the "oomph". Neither did Andante. Plus, I thought you had Prince as a scumread? Explain.

[Vivax]

I can change target on a whim cause I'm not afraid to look inconsistent. Got a nudge from Andante into the trees direction, opened Owens filter and found a valid reason.
I believe that Prince, if scum, is the last elim to pursue. His push for the hammer on Fred was good enough to honour, but also mafia motivated.

And the three mentioned went for Meg all around the same page. So it was some kind of super mindmeld, or cooperation at least.

[Crescent]

Owen has notably been on my list of the three

most

likely bussers, but the point about Fred being town does make it less likely than, say, Prince. I just looked up what led to Prince's vote in post #541.

Since Meg hasn't answered still, the reason I'm asking about his opinion on the wagon is that I'd expect someone who had the reaction they had to the mini pileup on Fred would also show a bit of concern about scum being involved in the almost completely unexplained five vote wagon against himself. Responding to it by ignoring the votes and instead accusing FancyPants of tmi for calling it a bad wagon doesn't seem consistent. To me it looks like Meg couldn't tell whether the wagon was a bluff or not and didn't want to risk looking scummy by overreacting.

Hadn't really thought Meg was scummy previously, but this is actually fairly convincing reasoning. I'm okay with this, maybe Pooky is right after all.

VOTE: MegAzumarill

Prince votes Pooky in #450, and doesn't

ever

talk about Meg until post #460 (Not even when he votes Pooky). The votes just became 4-3-2-2 with Meg in the lead in post #441. Prince's vote to try to discredit Pooky comes a mere 9 posts after Meg, a train led by Pooky, becomes the vote leader. Prince's vote on Meg comes just 8 posts after Lowell puts a 5th vote on Meg.

So basically, he ignores the train until it's at 4 votes, then tries to discredit it by going after it's leader. The train holds it's momentum, and he drops a vote on it immediately after it hits 5 votes. Combine that with the only person this guy has ever seemed to actually want to vote off (Fred) being town, and him starting the day by saying "Let's kill Enchant" and voting pretty obvtown Fire instead, this has definitely emerged as a vote on Meg that sticks out.



Also, Fire is the least likely to be a bus on that train, just because of the way he and Pooky interacted. To start day 2, I said it "Generally isn't ever a bus".

[Prince of Paterson]

And the three mentioned went for Meg all around the same page. So it was some kind of super mindmeld, or cooperation at least.

Votecount analysis is easy to manipulate. If you see Crescent, Andante and Prince coming in with the oomph wagon on Meg, you might want to start to cover your butt if you don't feel like fighting.
That said, for the way I reacted negatively to that I could be a decent push here, but I get the feeling the remaining mafia don't want to try that.

Timeline is a bit off here. UNOwen voted Meg before any of these, to put the wagons at 5 on Meg, 4 on Fredrick. He then stuck with the wagon all the way to the end. His reasoning later in 539 was what convinced me to vote Meg.

[Unsure]

I was writing to say that, but also Andante didn't vote Meg
What do you think about it now, Vivax?

[Prince of Paterson]

Also, Fire is the least likely to be a bus on that train, just because of the way he and Pooky interacted. To start day 2, I said it "Generally isn't ever a bus".

Only thing I ask is that if I do get elimmed at some point, you consider carefully whether you could be wrong about this. I hold the opposite opinion. Pooky and UNOwen's votes were the least likely to be a bus because of the way they campaigned for more votes and gave genuine, nuanced reasoning. Fire's vote and interactions with the wagon were mostly centered around buddying Pooky and didn't really have anything to do with Meg at all, until it looked like a Meg elim was unavoidable, at which point there was some obligatory attempt at interaction. The subsequent kill on Pooky locks them in as appearing to be of one mind and doesn't allow Pooky the chance to question if he's being buddied by scum.

I don't really see anything about it that makes it not ever a bus.

[Prince of Paterson]

Prince's vote to try to discredit Pooky comes a mere 9 posts after Meg, a train led by Pooky, becomes the vote leader. Prince's vote on Meg comes just 8 posts after Lowell puts a 5th vote on Meg.

So basically, he ignores the train until it's at 4 votes, then tries to discredit it by going after it's leader.

Presented in this way, my actions line up with your interpretation, so it's fair in a way, but I don't think it really fits what happened. My vote on Pooky was to pressure him to give more content, not to discredit him. I didn't feel like he cared about pushing for Meg to be eliminated despite it being presented as his strongest read, and I thought that had possible scum motivation. So I prodded him to explain more about his read on Meg and why he found them scummy. I found out through this discussion that he did actually care and had reasons for not explaining his rationale earlier. That prompted further discussion, which in the end helped to convince myself and I think others that Meg was scum. I don't ever discredit Pooky's reasoning, I ask him for more instead. I'm not sure how I as scum would benefit from that approach.

[Unsure]

We should be focusing on an MT elim anyway. He's really, really struggling for scumreads.

[Vivax]

I think I can't convince mafia, so I'll wait for a few townreads of mine to show up and see what they think.
Which are logically the ones who aren't my scumreads.

[Prince of Paterson]

We should be focusing on an MT elim anyway. He's really, really struggling for scumreads.

Part of me can see where you're coming from, but another part of me gutreads the struggle as town. One aspect of that is that I relate to some extent. I'm voting Enchant but I don't have a strong reason why. It's been easier for me to find townreads than scumreads in this game as well. I also don't think he really has this level of difficulty faking scumreads as scum, and so to some extent I believe that he is just being honest with his views on the game and is genuinely struggling to find a scumread that he's confident in.

[Prince of Paterson]

I think I can't convince mafia, so I'll wait for a few townreads of mine to show up and see what they think.
Which are logically the ones who aren't my scumreads.

Okay, but it isn't really about convincing. You gave a read that was supported by a narrative that is simply not accurate. What is your opinion now that you know the basis you provided is false?

[Vivax]

I think I can't convince mafia, so I'll wait for a few townreads of mine to show up and see what they think.
Which are logically the ones who aren't my scumreads.

Okay, but it isn't really about convincing. You gave a read that was supported by a narrative that is simply not accurate. What is your opinion now that you know the basis you provided is false?

I like your style, you're persistent and ambitious.
But I don't like the timings at which it shows.

[Unsure]

There's no conspiracy here. You were just plain wrong Vivax.

[Vivax]

There's no conspiracy here. You were just plain wrong Vivax.

I hear gas and see a light

[Unsure]

Literally, all you need is to backread.

[Unsure]

and now you're shading me for it
great

[Vivax]

Dunno I feel wicked smaht to be completely honest
Except for the fact that I can feel your frustration at dealing with it
That could just be something I'm imagining, but you will know

[Vivax]

Prince gets his tires deflated by flattery
Unsure by lack of belief (in themselves or otherwise)

[Datisi]

prodding Firebringer.

[Crescent]

Why doesn't what you said apply to Firebringer?

"Votecount analysis is easy to manipulate. If you see Crescent, Andante and

Prince

coming in with the oomph wagon on Meg, you might want to start to cover your butt if you don't feel like fighting."

I get Greeting but her vote wasn't that critical to the elimination and we already see she can be inflexible with her reads. I've yet to deepdive her meta but if that's NAI then Greeting can still be scum. What makes Firebringer the least likeliest busser?

Crescent wasn't even coming in with the "oomph". Neither did Andante. Plus, I thought you had Prince as a scumread? Explain.

It's less the vote itself and more specifically how he interacted with Pooky. For starters, the only way that's a bus is if Fire was effectively planning to hard bus from the start of the game to begin with. To do it in a half-assed, rushed way that spends half his time just shitposting with Pooky isn't really a scum mindset. They were practically just dicking around together more than they were actively hunting for scum... And Meg just kind of rolled over and died.

Secondly, he buddied up with Pooky pretty hard in the process of this. Why shoot him night 1? Pooky displayed virtually no actual reads in the game (Most of his posts were meaningless fluff), so he couldn't have been killed because scum were afraid of his reads. Fire would've had him totally pocketed.

[Greeting]

I get Greeting but her vote wasn't that critical to the elimination and we already see she can be inflexible with her reads.

I'm a he. They is also acceptable. She is confusing.

I might not be very flexible, but I am constantly analysing different possibilities, just not finding enough convincing arguments to do a full U-turn.

Answering your question from 1572, it's because not everyone thinks he's scummy. I'd much rather flip

Enchant

if we're supposed to find common ground.

[Enchant]

Why you suspect me

[Malakittens]

maybe fb scum

anyone feels it?!?!

[Enchant]

I only feel pain