LOST (Game Over)

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

thanks for the pagetop setup luke

[butterchurn]

I think this game is scum driven and bus heavy

What about the game makes you think that? How would the previous elimination on Bella be scum-driven if it stemmed from ProfessorDrapion getting a guilty result?

[Best Bird]

Game is scum driven and 2/3 yeets have been on scum.

Ok.

[Lukewarm]

He wants to call the people scum reading him scum, but realizes that me and pooky both pushed math.

[Lukewarm]

I did not find his progression on Bella believable at all really.

By contrast, even though you were both arguing to save Bella, I did find yours believable

Progression when? Pre or post track reveal?

post.

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

It was the

"wow no one is even thinking about this, occam's razzor says that bella is town because of the track result"
to
"oh shucks, you guys convinced me. it would be actually a crazy series of coincidences needed for Bella to be town"
to
"Actually, here is a (quite flawed btw) plan on how to leash Bella to prove that she is town"

Spoiler:

Nah everyone jumped on Bella without any analysis, is why I'm comparing it to RVS.

Actually Occam's Razor given the likelihood of Bella being an actual doc based on flavor is that town!Bella sat on Bell and Bell is macho so now he's dead.

You gotta deny Bella's a doc at all for there to be a better Occam's Razor cause the scum!Bella doc scenarios are complicated.

Let's do this

VOTE: Bella

Strongman targets Bell and town!Bella targets Bell is just wtf GG

E-2 maybe? Been a while since I checked. Caution if you vote.

Yo we already decided Juliet (bella claim) could be doc.

Did Bella steal it from a scum partner? Sure maybe.

If PD dies tonight we flip bella, 100%.

If Bella is town doc PD doesn't die. Bella dies or someone random dies.

That's the point.

The 10303 sticks out like a sore thumb, and hardly feels like it was written by the same person. Makes me feel like this was not genuine.

[Lukewarm]

kinda messed up the formatting on that x.x

[butterchurn]

Spoiler:

Does Bella's flavor match up with the idea of being "macho"?

I was looking through the Lost wiki at the episodes Bella mentioned... the character Juliet is indeed a doctor. So yeah... flavor matches...

I couldn't find anything specific from "the other woman" episode that points to Juliet being "macho" but maybe that's not spelled out in the wiki. Any Lost watchers wanna comment on that? Any macho-like character development from her in that episode?

4. Mafia is not determined by flavor. That means roles were mostly selected at random to determine which roles would be mafia.

Let's put some more thought into this.

Mafia's not determined by flavor

, meaning bad guys in the show aren't necessarily scum here, good guys aren't necessarily town.

Roles were

mostly

selected at random to determine which roles would be mafia.

This part doesn't really make sense to me so let's think it through... First - "mostly". Ok so "some" roles may have been selected specifically to be town or specifically scum. Maybe doc is just town no matter what? And we could have, say, a day-shot vig who's scum cause it was random? Along with most other roles, but maybe some are just town or just scum.

So I could see this designed as... assigning specific roles to certain flavor, then randomizing the roles that could be scum (with some roles that CANNOT be scum), and then assigning to players.

That could make a doc like Juliet *just* town.

So question for longer time players. Have you seen scum-docs before on this site?

Ok so scum doc is possible, cool, good to know.

Let's suppose scum!Bella's doc claim is legit for a moment.

Does scum!Bella the doc target Bell as the one making the kill? Wouldn't scum!Bella the doc target the scum killer in case Bell is POG or something? Or maybe scum has an invest role and scum!Bella the doc sits on them just in case? Why is scum!Bella the doc killing Bell?

This series of posts from prior to that is also pretty heavily focused on proving that Bella is actually Juliet and a doctor, and that makes her town. Mala claims that Bella was trueclaiming. It could be a "just asking questions" angle to try to clear Bella as town due to the fact that her claim was true.

[Dancing Puppets]

Spoiler:

Does Bella's flavor match up with the idea of being "macho"?

I was looking through the Lost wiki at the episodes Bella mentioned... the character Juliet is indeed a doctor. So yeah... flavor matches...

I couldn't find anything specific from "the other woman" episode that points to Juliet being "macho" but maybe that's not spelled out in the wiki. Any Lost watchers wanna comment on that? Any macho-like character development from her in that episode?

4. Mafia is not determined by flavor. That means roles were mostly selected at random to determine which roles would be mafia.

Let's put some more thought into this.

Mafia's not determined by flavor

, meaning bad guys in the show aren't necessarily scum here, good guys aren't necessarily town.

Roles were

mostly

selected at random to determine which roles would be mafia.

This part doesn't really make sense to me so let's think it through... First - "mostly". Ok so "some" roles may have been selected specifically to be town or specifically scum. Maybe doc is just town no matter what? And we could have, say, a day-shot vig who's scum cause it was random? Along with most other roles, but maybe some are just town or just scum.

So I could see this designed as... assigning specific roles to certain flavor, then randomizing the roles that could be scum (with some roles that CANNOT be scum), and then assigning to players.

That could make a doc like Juliet *just* town.

So question for longer time players. Have you seen scum-docs before on this site?

Ok so scum doc is possible, cool, good to know.

Let's suppose scum!Bella's doc claim is legit for a moment.

Does scum!Bella the doc target Bell as the one making the kill? Wouldn't scum!Bella the doc target the scum killer in case Bell is POG or something? Or maybe scum has an invest role and scum!Bella the doc sits on them just in case? Why is scum!Bella the doc killing Bell?

This series of posts from prior to that is also pretty heavily focused on proving that Bella is actually Juliet and a doctor, and that makes her town. Mala claims that Bella was trueclaiming. It could be a "just asking questions" angle to try to clear Bella as town

due to the fact that her claim was true

.

Why do you believe this to be true? Major FoS.

~Titus

[butterchurn]

It was conditioned on Mala's claim, as I stated in the previous sentence.

oh - what was ceph's exact role?

Hated 1-shot gladiator
Bella is a macho doc

[Lukewarm]

My other thoughts about Rad include his avoidance of the Math wagon day 2, despite claiming to scum read the slot.

Back to Back votes on Math early in the Day

Spoiler:

I think I am back to this

VOTE: Math

VOTE: Mathblade

LOL @Frog town.

VOTE: Mathblade

vote's best served here

Rad shows up, and his strongest theory is cg+math S/S. Chooses to be the first vote on C/G instead of the 4th vote on Math

Spoiler:

Mod makes up post limitation as a game design element and ignores it? I don't buy it.

Player gets limitation and doesn't care what happens if they go over? I don't buy it.

2129 isn't a naked quote, it's a quote from one of the hydra's players who accidentally posted under the wrong account. If the player didn't accidentally post it under the wrong account, it would have been a 2 word post under the C&G account.

Fake post restriction.

VOTE: Cytosine and Guanine

Also Corwin must not have asked C&G about the penalty either. Seems like a pretty reasonable thing to ask if you're town and want to know what happens if they go over it. I mean why not? That's not something we want them explaining when they're restricted to 100 words. But Corwin/Math could have easily found out if they cared and let us all know.

@Rad So you think our hood is SvS? Okay, it's not impossible, but it's like very taboo. I should know having subverted that expectation in the past.
~Cytosine

Yeah I would read this scenario as a SvS neighborhood.

I have no clue if that's likely or not but the general consensus seems to be that neighborhoods were random in this game, so all combinations are possible.

Decides to try out a Malcolm wagon

Spoiler:

All aboard

VOTE: Malcolm

Rad does his Daily Round up, which frankly feels kinda biased against killing Math. Like read math, then read C/G and malcolm lol.

Spoiler:

Alright town let's gooooo!

We've got some great options here to discuss tonight!

First up we've got our most popular target in both Day 1 and Day 2. Mathblade!!

Mathblade was a replacement for Corwin. Both have felt kinda scummy, kinda not at various points. Math pushed hard to get town to "just talk to each other" which seems like a pretty noble thing indeed (cool!) if it wasn't also to defend against people just straight voting for him for reading him as scum (bummer...)!

Here in town we've got people with all sorts of meta reads on him. He came in pretty slow and steady and people meta read him as scum for it, so then he ramped things up and different (maybe!) people read him scum for it!

Math's meta has very conveniently settled into the "math is scum if he's in the game" territory.

Math was a neighbor to C&G and we can't quite tell what was a lie and what was the truth coming from this smooth talker. He's the Sun to C&G's Jin and supposedly Corwin was posting for both of them, like in the show (cool!), just not in any way that we can verify (bummer...).

It's probably the truth, we just don't realize it (Yeeesss)!

Hurry and vote today for Mathblade before his slot gets replaced with someone who makes you question your reality, or if flipping the slot sounds fun to you!

Next up we've got... BlueBloodedToffee!

BBT was the most excited person to get this game together. I bet most of you are in here because he messaged you in some way to get you to join! Siiiick. He also likes to skip out for long periods of time, complain about how much has happened since he last visited, and then proceed to spam page tops more effectively than anyone! Of his 292 posts, approximately 276 of them are pagetops! KING!

BBT is notoriously difficult to read with masterful blending of town and scum play styles, or in other words, both his town and scum play are incredibly scummy! Which one is he this time?? Don't bother with that meta nonsense, says his signature, cause BBT screams scum no matter what so just stop it don't bother!!

BBT has been especially good at naked votes this game, where he strips hi... I mean, where he votes for someone with no specified reason. This is a new term for me cause I'm a newbie and I love sharing my newbie status with people. Cool!

BBT loves VCA unless your VCA points to him, in which case it's absolute shit and you should feel embarassed for it wtf is wrong with you? Level 0.

BBT is a great counter wagon to just about anyone. If you see a wagon gaining momentum and you want to stop it, just vote for BBT. BOOM instant competing 3-6 person BBT wagon!

Next we have... Cytosine and Guanine aka C&G aka CaG aka cg aka DNA?? aka Jin

C&G could only speak up to 100 words during day 1. This is a legit restriction that the mod gave them. I bet you can't guess what the penalty is if you go over. Can you? Can you guess it? I mean not that you'd want to guess it, you could just ask the mod, but why would you do that? And why would their neighbor ask about it? Booooring. Also fuck the mod, let's go over 100 words anyway. It's not like we have a neighbor who could literally "translate" to the rest of town like in the show Lost that this restriction seems based on. Nah that's stupid just hit 103 words and give the mod the middle finger and let's move onto our next and last entry...

Malcolm!

Malcolm is currently writing an action horror novel staring Rad (that's me!). Follow Rad's character as the narrator describes in excrutiating details all the scummy shit only someone like Rad could pull off. There's no move Rad makes that isn't precicely calculated with the singular goal of town muuurrrdeerrrr.

Malcolm has also recently unlocked the "fastest 3 votes" achievement. Congrats! Luke will be giving out this award later in your neighborhood where you can defend Rad's town creds back and forth before you realize he's not just a character in your spy romance novel, he's... puurrree eeeviiiillll!

I'll just wait here and vote with town when town's ready so let's go town, let's vote out the scum!

Like really. He leans scum on Math. Sees literally all of his town reads on Math. Voting Math is apparently a struggle for him

Spoiler:

The top 2 wagons right now are uneventful from my perspective.

6 Mathblade (Lukewarm, Bell, Taly, Cat Scratch Fever, BlueBloodedToffee, RCEnigma)
3 Bluebloodedtoffee (Mathblade, Roden, Off the Hook)

Math is full of my town reads and town leans, but I'm not super confident in my own reads
BBT has Math which I scum lean, Roden which is a supposed mason which I just accept but have no real read on, and OTH which I have null atm

And then a bunch of 1 person wagons.

If I had to choose between those right now, as a gladiate, I flip Math, but I'm not super confident in it.

---

Which combine the above with the way he treated Bella. He has poor interactions with both flipped scum's wagons imo.

---

it was Luke or bell for me and I assumed if another doc then prolly on other obv! town

I kinda want to read this as the scum team really was debating between me and Bell that night on who to kill. So those were the two that she claimed to be debating protecting.

And why kill Bell over Luke? - we are both widely town read. we both look good on the math flip. we both claimed neighbor (and I had even been dropping hints all game that I am more then a neighbor)

But. Luke has Rad as #1 Town Read. Bell has Rad as scum Read.

I don't actually know of any other read off the top of my head that we disagreed on. (could be wrong, but Bell did not do a reads list day 2 for me to compare to.)

---

And then basically all of his posting today.

His Paranoia solve flies in the face of his own presented play this game.

I think this game is scum driven and bus heavy, but that seems ridiculous and I dunno how scum pooky or Luke get to end game without being obv scum so it's whatever.

I know I've been afraid to say this

which makes me think scum has created an environment where it doesn't feel comfortable to speak up, and the lurker types certainly aren't causing that. But hey fuck it

He is acting like this paranoia has been here for a while, but he was too afraid to speak on it. But that simply does not match his play.

When he was thinking about not killing Bella, I was the single person in the whole player list that he reached out to, by name, to do a "sanity check"

Luke sanity check me please.

Did scum!Bella the doc or not doc go kill Bell last night?

Is that what you do to someone that you have a paranoia read on, that you are just too afraid to voice?

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: Rad

[Rad]

Game is scum driven and 2/3 yeets have been on scum.

Ok.

It's my paranoid hero solve. I get to gloat like fuck end game when scum!Luke dominates the shit out of town as the top town read all game. I admit it's ridiculous though with my statement "but that seems ridiculous and I dunno how scum pooky or Luke get to end game without being obv scum so it's whatever". And I'm still willing to just follow Luke on this Enchant flip cause chances are Luke's just town here.

He wants to call the people scum reading him scum, but realizes that me and pooky both pushed math.

Pfff I've been sus of you and T-Bone for a while now.

@Bell what do you think about T-Bone's 8736 and Luke's 9072 with regards to their reads on me / descriptions of my play this game?

@Bell what do you think about T-Bone's 8736 and Luke's 9072 with regards to their reads on me / descriptions of my play this game?

You do know that a single player scum reading you is okay right? Lol

I do!

I also read him town and would like to hear his thoughts about those posts

For some context Luke, I feel similar about both you and T-Bone as you feel about T-Bone. I'd like to get some more opinions to help round out my reads, and hey, if Bell's scum that answer could be useful as well.

It doesn't have to be me trying to convince Bell that I'm town with your and T-Bone's endorsement, ya know?

Pooky announcing you're both town via cop read when there's no great reason to throw that out right now just made me sus Pooky. And in the scenario where scum!Pooky does that, I try to figure out what the likely scenario is for Luke and T-Bone's alignments. Probably safe to pull in 1 scum partner there. Kinda ridiculous to pull in 2. And really safe to just announce you're cop and 2 townies are town.

[RCEnigma]

I’d rather not do Rad at this very moment. But like..yeah 10272 especially “you would have to deny Bella is a doc at all” makes it seem like Rad had knowledge Bella was trueclaiming their role.

[RCEnigma]

Oh butter already hit on it.

[Rad]

Yo Luke, I literally got the Math wagon rolling. Town stalled like fuck and I wrote my 9443 parody post that got town all ramped up to flip scum You're welcome! The Math wagon kicked into gear and I jumped on board. My scum read on math had died off, with just a scum lean, but I was willing to just go with everyone else to see what happened. Also that second quote you bolded "It's probably the truth..." was a joke dude. The joke is that supposedly Corwin was doing work for 2 people, but not in any way that anyone of us can verify, but it must be true anyway!! I mean give me a break, obvious joke, but you're taking it as a manipulation technique? lol

He is acting like this paranoia has been here for a while, but he was too afraid to speak on it. But that simply does not match his play.

When he was thinking about not killing Bella, I was the single person in the whole player list that he reached out to, by name, to do a "sanity check"

Yeah I still lean on you as my town go-to because in all reality, that's probably just what you are, but that idea makes me paranoid as fuck and reading your scum game broke me. See my last town game where I literally sheep my top town read (I tell them to vote and I'll join whomever they pick) and mention that if he had survived the night, I would have read him as scum lol. GG my reads.

My Bella read was difficult too because I misread her all game my last town game, making cases on her and continuing to push, and was just wrong. People were reading her more town this game, which I leaned into because fuck my reads, until Drap's mech, so I was still rolling with a what-if Bella's actually doc here stance that would resolve itself.

[Rad]

I’d rather not do Rad at this very moment. But like..yeah 10272 especially “you would have to deny Bella is a doc at all” makes it seem like Rad had knowledge Bella was trueclaiming their role.

Bella's flavor matched the doc claim. Until Pooky's cop claim, I think we were all leaning towards flavor probably matters with regards to role. I mean, I certainly was and I know Luke was.

[Cytosine and Guanine]

Here's the post-by-post paraphrase/summary of the neighborhood starting with MathBlade's entrance. (I already summarized/paraphrased the posts leading up to MathBlade's entrance in 9386.) I am putting it in spoilers because it's pretty long. If I am being vague, it's because 1) I want to stay pretty clear of the "not quite a copy-paste but dangerously close to being one" line and 2) the question or comment was very likely insignificant and would not be very relevant at this point.

Spoiler: Neighborhood Summary Pages 2-4

27: MathBlade asks what he should look at first as the thread is very large.
28: MathBlade clarifies that 27 is also meant to help sort us.
29: I mention our post restriction to MathBlade and that I cannot help him catch up much.
30: MathBlade asks if it is known that he and us can speak together in private.
31: Guanine responds that the existence of the PT is not public yet.
32: Guanine quotes 31 that he forgot to sign and signs this post.
33: MathBlade says he will crumb the neighborhood.
34: Guanine agrees that crumbing is a good idea.
35: Guanine quotes 34 that he forgot to sign and signs this post.
36: MathBlade posts his first crumb (post #2398).
37: MathBlade posts his second crumb (post #2496).
38: MathBlade posts his third crumb (post #2510).
39: MathBlade says people are avoiding talking about Bell.
40: MathBlade asks us a question and says he can help us save words by posting for us.
41: I respond to the question in 40.
42: Guanine follows up my response in 41.
43: MathBlade says he is looking at vote counts.
44: MathBlade asks who our signatures correspond to.
45: I post some notes I had on the thread. I also respond to MathBlade's question in 44 explaining my view on the matter and letting Guanine decide.
46: MathBlade asks me if he can paraphrase my 45.
47: MathBlade posts his fourth crumb (post #2713).
48: MathBlade says that he posted my 45.
49: MathBlade wants the neighborhood to be public.

50: Guanine, responding to MathBlade's question in 44, says that he has already slipped who is who.
51: Guanine suggests MathBlade just claim his flavor Sun.
52: MathBlade double-checks whether we are okay with him claiming his flavor.
53: MathBlade makes an edit to his post in 52.
54: MathBlade makes another comment relating to 52.
55: MathBlade says he will go ahead and flavor claim.
56: Guanine asks a question to MathBlade.
57: MathBlade asks for Guanine to clarify the context for the question in 56.
58: MathBlade says he has not seen scum Lukewarm before and is hesitant to start a wagon there if Lukewarm is town.
59: Guanine responds and says that he liked Lukewarm's early game.
60: MathBlade asks if we need anything or can give him a reads list.
61: Guanine says he is moving Bell up to null and Dancing Puppets to town. He also mentions that Klick and Frog are still null as well.
62: Guanine says he still has reservations about Bell.
63: MathBlade asks us to clarify what can be shared.
64: MathBlade wonders if it is possible that everyone except Bell is town.
65: Guanine responds that everything from him is shareable.
66: Guanine responds to MathBlade's 64 with the fact that Taly confirmed Bell as Boone.
67: MathBlade responds to Guanine's 66 that it is either a fake claim, or MathBlade's theory is off.
68: MathBlade is frustrated with the game.
69: MathBlade asks us what reads we want to share.
70: I respond to MathBlade's 64 with it being unlikely given how Save the Dragons advertised the game.
71: MathBlade says that he got a bit upset.
72: MathBlade asks us what a long number means.
73: MathBlade agains says he would like for us to give him something to post.
74: I respond to 72 by explaining how Pooky wanted reads Day 1.

75: MathBlade says the scum are the active players. He specifically calls out Dancing Puppets.
76: MathBlade asks us to further explain our Dancing Puppets town read.
77: Guanine responds to 76 with an elaboration.
78: Guanine reiterates that MathBlade can share anything Guanine posts.
79: Guanine says he is at page 172 in the the thread.
80: MathBlade once again asks us to further explain our town read of Dancing Puppets.
81: MathBlade complains that reading the game is hard due to to how quickly the game is progressing.
82: MathBlade explains why he unvoted and asks us to give some scum reads.
83: Guanine talks a bit about Dancing Puppet's 4367.
84: MathBlade says that he is still not convinced by our arguments that Dancing Puppets is town.
85: Guanine states that Roden's claim has removed Roden from Guanine's scum reads.
86: Guanine gives in a bit to MathBlade's 84.
87: MathBlade asks us to give a quick blurb for every player we town read.
88: MathBlade says that he would like to town read Dancing Puppets, but he needs a good reason to do so.
89: Guanine asks MathBlade to clarify 87.
90: MathBlade believes there are scum in the people voting Roden.
91: Guanine posts our list of town reads and reasons why.
92: Guanine makes some corrections to 91.
93: Guanine clarifies that the list reflects most his opinion rather than our collective opinion.
94: MathBlade is somewhat satisfied by what Guanine has given him to work with.
95: Guanine suggests Klick as the potential scum in the Roden voters.
96: MathBlade is okay with wagoning Klick but is worried about how that may be perceived.
97: Guanine suggests the best strategy for wagoning Klick is to combine forces with Bell.
98: MathBlade says that he voted Klick.
99: MathBlade says he is not town reading Bell.

I'll post the other half of the neigbhorhood chat and our thoughts on associations and anti-associations tomorrow.
~Cytosine

[Rad]

C&G while you're here, I have a question for you. Are you still around? It's something I'd need to ask and have you answer fairly quickly for it to matter.

[Cytosine and Guanine]

Okay

[Lukewarm]

Yo Luke, I literally got the Math wagon rolling. Town stalled like fuck and I wrote my 9443 parody post that got town all ramped up to flip scum You're welcome!

You were not even voting Math at the time that you wrote 9443? And your cases against the other people were noticeably sharper.

Kinda hard to give you credit for the math wagon my friend.

[Rad]

Thanks C&G -

Regarding your Corwin summary post 9386

Can you give me the timestamps for the following posts?

6
9
12
18
24

[Cytosine and Guanine]

Uh, I think that would be cutting it close to quoting private communications.
~Cytosine

[RCEnigma]

I’ll save a rad dive till tomorrow when I can actually go through the iso. I want to hear Nancy’s thoughts on Rad as well.

[Cytosine and Guanine]

6 - Thursday
9 - Thursday
12 - Friday
18 - Saturday
24 - Saturday

I do not wish to go in more specificity.
~Cytosine

[RCEnigma]

Yo Luke, I literally got the Math wagon rolling. Town stalled like fuck and I wrote my 9443 parody post that got town all ramped up to flip scum You're welcome!

You were not even voting Math at the time that you wrote 9443? And your cases against the other people were noticeably sharper.

Kinda hard to give you credit for the math wagon my friend.

I have this issue as well Rad. Like….town “stalled” on math (which is also misleading) because you and others started a C&G counterwagon.