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Post Post #11050 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:25 pm

Post by Dancing Puppets »

In post 11022, RCEnigma wrote:I’ll save a rad dive till tomorrow when I can actually go through the iso. I want to hear Nancy’s thoughts on Rad as well.
Lololol this is too funny after all so many of my reads have been stellar.

I will re-ISO him but I really think Bella probably visited Math on n1, so gth her RAD visit claim read to me as an attempt to justify Bell visit, so if you think extremely likely that Bella visited Math on n1 and not RAD - and seriously why would Bella heal RAD when he was being extremely hard tr after his posts during gladiate on d1, so scum likely realized Dunn softed vig and therefore it makes the most sense that Bella lied about visiting RAD on n1 and most likely healed Math since he’s rb. Corwin practically locktowned RAD. So without an extensive re-ISOing of RAD, I think it would be weird for Bella to lie about visiting her buddy if he’s scum but I only really trust my reads on certain players and being so wrong on Bella made me doubt how much I can trust some of my reads.

OtH, Taly, Drap, masons, you, BB and now DNA due to that paraphrase are the reads I feel extremely confident on rn. Iow, I would hard veto wagons on them. Other slots, I would have to take into account my own solve + listen to what others are saying.

So will reread RAD tomorrow.
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Post Post #11051 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:29 pm

Post by Enchant »

So, who we killing
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Post Post #11052 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:30 pm

Post by Dancing Puppets »

In post 11016, Cytosine and Guanine wrote:Here's the post-by-post paraphrase/summary of the neighborhood starting with MathBlade's entrance. (I already summarized/paraphrased the posts leading up to MathBlade's entrance in .) I am putting it in spoilers because it's pretty long. If I am being vague, it's because 1) I want to stay pretty clear of the "not quite a copy-paste but dangerously close to being one" line and 2) the question or comment was very likely insignificant and would not be very relevant at this point.

Spoiler: Neighborhood Summary Pages 2-4
27: MathBlade asks what he should look at first as the thread is very large.
28: MathBlade clarifies that 27 is also meant to help sort us.
29: I mention our post restriction to MathBlade and that I cannot help him catch up much.
30: MathBlade asks if it is known that he and us can speak together in private.
31: Guanine responds that the existence of the PT is not public yet.
32: Guanine quotes 31 that he forgot to sign and signs this post.
33: MathBlade says he will crumb the neighborhood.
34: Guanine agrees that crumbing is a good idea.
35: Guanine quotes 34 that he forgot to sign and signs this post.
36: MathBlade posts his first crumb (post #).
37: MathBlade posts his second crumb (post #).
38: MathBlade posts his third crumb (post #).
39: MathBlade says people are avoiding talking about Bell.
40: MathBlade asks us a question and says he can help us save words by posting for us.
41: I respond to the question in 40.
42: Guanine follows up my response in 41.
43: MathBlade says he is looking at vote counts.
44: MathBlade asks who our signatures correspond to.
45: I post some notes I had on the thread. I also respond to MathBlade's question in 44 explaining my view on the matter and letting Guanine decide.
46: MathBlade asks me if he can paraphrase my 45.
47: MathBlade posts his fourth crumb (post #).
48: MathBlade says that he posted my 45.
49: MathBlade wants the neighborhood to be public.

50: Guanine, responding to MathBlade's question in 44, says that he has already slipped who is who.
51: Guanine suggests MathBlade just claim his flavor Sun.
52: MathBlade double-checks whether we are okay with him claiming his flavor.
53: MathBlade makes an edit to his post in 52.
54: MathBlade makes another comment relating to 52.
55: MathBlade says he will go ahead and flavor claim.
56: Guanine asks a question to MathBlade.
57: MathBlade asks for Guanine to clarify the context for the question in 56.
58: MathBlade says he has not seen scum Lukewarm before and is hesitant to start a wagon there if Lukewarm is town.
59: Guanine responds and says that he liked Lukewarm's early game.
60: MathBlade asks if we need anything or can give him a reads list.
61: Guanine says he is moving Bell up to null and Dancing Puppets to town. He also mentions that Klick and Frog are still null as well.
62: Guanine says he still has reservations about Bell.
63: MathBlade asks us to clarify what can be shared.
64: MathBlade wonders if it is possible that everyone except Bell is town.
65: Guanine responds that everything from him is shareable.
66: Guanine responds to MathBlade's 64 with the fact that Taly confirmed Bell as Boone.
67: MathBlade responds to Guanine's 66 that it is either a fake claim, or MathBlade's theory is off.
68: MathBlade is frustrated with the game.
69: MathBlade asks us what reads we want to share.
70: I respond to MathBlade's 64 with it being unlikely given how Save the Dragons advertised the game.
71: MathBlade says that he got a bit upset.
72: MathBlade asks us what a long number means.
73: MathBlade agains says he would like for us to give him something to post.
74: I respond to 72 by explaining how Pooky wanted reads Day 1.

75: MathBlade says the scum are the active players. He specifically calls out Dancing Puppets.
76: MathBlade asks us to further explain our Dancing Puppets town read.
77: Guanine responds to 76 with an elaboration.
78: Guanine reiterates that MathBlade can share anything Guanine posts.
79: Guanine says he is at page 172 in the the thread.
80: MathBlade once again asks us to further explain our town read of Dancing Puppets.
81: MathBlade complains that reading the game is hard due to to how quickly the game is progressing.
82: MathBlade explains why he unvoted and asks us to give some scum reads.
83: Guanine talks a bit about Dancing Puppet's .
84: MathBlade says that he is still not convinced by our arguments that Dancing Puppets is town.
85: Guanine states that Roden's claim has removed Roden from Guanine's scum reads.
86: Guanine gives in a bit to MathBlade's 84.
87: MathBlade asks us to give a quick blurb for every player we town read.
88: MathBlade says that he would like to town read Dancing Puppets, but he needs a good reason to do so.
89: Guanine asks MathBlade to clarify 87.
90: MathBlade believes there are scum in the people voting Roden.
91: Guanine posts our list of town reads and reasons why.
92: Guanine makes some corrections to 91.
93: Guanine clarifies that the list reflects most his opinion rather than our collective opinion.
94: MathBlade is somewhat satisfied by what Guanine has given him to work with.
95: Guanine suggests Klick as the potential scum in the Roden voters.
96: MathBlade is okay with wagoning Klick but is worried about how that may be perceived.
97: Guanine suggests the best strategy for wagoning Klick is to combine forces with Bell.
98: MathBlade says that he voted Klick.
99: MathBlade says he is not town reading Bell.


I'll post the other half of the neigbhorhood chat and our thoughts on associations and anti-associations tomorrow.
~Cytosine
Because this was actually my theory and Math eventually backed off of me, I definitely believe this. Math backed off of us to get tr by DNA. He had no choice, he had to keep DNA haapy.
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Post Post #11053 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:30 pm

Post by ProfessorDrapion »

In post 11051, Enchant wrote:So, who we killing
You
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Post Post #11054 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:30 pm

Post by ProfessorDrapion »

In post 11051, Enchant wrote:So, who we killing
You
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Post Post #11055 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:31 pm

Post by butterchurn »

In post 11051, Enchant wrote:So, who we killing
Who do you suggest?
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Post Post #11056 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:31 pm

Post by Enchant »

Awesome!

Invite me to funeral!
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Post Post #11057 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:31 pm

Post by Enchant »

In post 11055, butterchurn wrote:
In post 11051, Enchant wrote:So, who we killing
Who do you suggest?
Go murderize mason claims, idk
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Post Post #11058 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:34 pm

Post by Rad »

In post 11046, butterchurn wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 9210, Rad wrote:Actually, masons for the Math and C&G slots makes a lot of sense given both the flavor and their TRs on each other.

Is a setup with 2 mason groups ridiculous and unheard of? My main concern with this idea is:
In post 4539, Cytosine and Guanine wrote:
In post 4001, Roden wrote:Yeah I'm not going to bother trying to keep up at this point, 70 pages is too much.

I can vaguely tell there's a wagon on me. I'm claiming Mason.
UNVOTE: Roden
(move Town)
-Guanine
A C&G mason would have to believe that 2 mason groups in this set up is totally legit and there's no reason to question the other mason claim at all.

I think considering the Math and C&G slots are viable wagons right now, they should just claim if they're masons?
In post 9230, Rad wrote:
In post 9227, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 9210, Rad wrote:Actually, masons for the Math and C&G slots makes a lot of sense given both the flavor and their TRs on each other.
They never claimed masons, and it is unproductive to just invent that idea and work from there.
It's a scenario that clears up a ton of things for me. I'm not inventing anything, I'm looking at it from different angles and that specific angle makes most things click into place. I'm not saying it's necessarily the reality, and C&G can come in and make a claim if they want to, and we can take it from there. The other angle that makes sense for me right now is a SvS between the 2 slots.

I didn't notice this mentioned recently. I think it is also important to bring up this sequence where Rad out of nowhere theorizes that C&G+Math as masons "makes a lot of sense". And when basically told that that's ridiculous, his response of "I'm just considering all the possibilities!" is pretty similar to how he acts after called out for how he handles the Bella claim.

Also taking note of this series of posts for if Enchant flips scum:

Spoiler:
In post 9118, Rad wrote:
In post 9116, Lukewarm wrote:But also, he would be a safe person for scum to push. Because no one is ever blamed for his miselim in any game he is miseliminated in.
Luke I think we're having similar thoughts about Enchant.

Here's my "easy targets" list from beginning of d2:

Math
BBT
Enchant
Johnny
PP/BB
Mala
PD

I've been specifically aware of any pushes on those people. Not that any of them are necessarily town that scum wants to push, but that if scum wants to push someone easily, it's likely a town in this list.

Have you been thinking something similar? I only ask because you pointed this out with Enchant so was wondering if you had a list like this.
In post 9127, Rad wrote:
In post 9123, T-Bone wrote:
In post 9118, Rad wrote:
In post 9116, Lukewarm wrote:But also, he would be a safe person for scum to push. Because no one is ever blamed for his miselim in any game he is miseliminated in.
Luke I think we're having similar thoughts about Enchant.

Here's my "easy targets" list from beginning of d2:

Math
BBT
Enchant
Johnny
PP/BB
Mala
PD

I've been specifically aware of any pushes on those people. Not that any of them are necessarily town that scum wants to push, but that if scum wants to push someone easily, it's likely a town in this list.

Have you been thinking something similar? I only ask because you pointed this out with Enchant so was wondering if you had a list like this.
I just wanna say, I am literally having to work with Nancy here to get even one vote on Enchant so this is anything but easy.
My perception of easy and the reality may not match up (though I stand by my perception here).

Do you think there are some easier players for scum to target or is that a ridiculous thought?

I'll give my "hard" list to compare. Do you think if we gladiate Enchant with any of the following players, people would vote anyone over enchant?

Rad
Luke
DP
C&G (note - was made at beginning of d2, I think after the potential lie reveal this is no longer "hard")
Roden
Dwlee
In post 9130, Rad wrote:
In post 9120, Lukewarm wrote:Looking at your own list it kind of feels like you are conflating being widely scum read with being an easy push, and also an easy push with a safe push.
A town that's widely scum read is an easy push for scum to make. So I'm more cautious of those in the "easy" list and will focus more on the reasons given for a vote on them than anyone else.

Are there probably scum in this list? Yeah for sure unless town is absolutely lost (hurrr) this game. A push on any one of them doesn't mean it's a push on town, but if there are town in that list, they're likely going to get pushed by scum.

That's my theory here.
In post 9137, Rad wrote:
In post 9132, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 9130, Rad wrote:So I'm more cautious of those in the "easy" list and
will focus more on the reasons given for a vote on them than anyone
else
If this is what you were saying, then I totally agree with you
Yes that is my main point.

I believe that scum will go for "hard" targets IF the opportunity provides itself, but most likely it won't, so the easy targets are more likely and I'll pay more attention to those pushes.
In post 9139, Rad wrote:
In post 9136, Mislim Bait wrote:
In post 9130, Rad wrote:
In post 9120, Lukewarm wrote:Looking at your own list it kind of feels like you are conflating being widely scum read with being an easy push, and also an easy push with a safe push.
A town that's widely scum read is an easy push for scum to make. So I'm more cautious of those in the "easy" list and will focus more on the reasons given for a vote on them than anyone else.

Are there probably scum in this list? Yeah for sure unless town is absolutely lost (hurrr) this game. A push on any one of them doesn't mean it's a push on town, but if there are town in that list, they're likely going to get pushed by scum.

That's my theory here.
scum pushing lhf is just basic hunting theory.
who's reasons are bad is what matters
Yeah, it's LHF theory, isn't it. Sorry for being basic :shifty:

I think I got caught up in Luke's point about Enchant and wanted to explore and confirm it.

It's a kind of weird sequence where he uses Luke's post that mentions Enchant as a springboard to talk about how Enchant (along with a list of others that includes Math) is an easy push and that we should all be watching out for people who push them with bad reasons, while also framing it as Luke's point (despite Luke's point being different) that he is seeking to confirm.
So, couple things.

1. I have low confidence in my ability to scum read, so I do try to consider ALL the possibilities. And for the masons bit - what is scum!Rad hoping to gain from presenting this idea? If c&g is town, why the fuck would scum!Rad present it? And if c&g is scum, why would scum!Rad present it here instead of the scum PT? Like what is scum!Rad hoping to gain from this in either scenario with how it played out? If c&g responded "yes we are masons!" ok sure, you gotta flip c&g after math scum flip and you can consider flipping me, but c&g responded "nope" so wtf was scum!Rad even doing there?

2. I think it's reasonable to be cautious of an "easy push". Doesn't mean scum can't also be an easy push, but I try to be more cautious when someone who I consider is an easy push gets... pushed. Yeah I dunno if announcing it was a great idea. Sometimes I lose my filter.
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Post Post #11059 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:38 pm

Post by Dancing Puppets »

In post 11057, Enchant wrote:
In post 11055, butterchurn wrote:
In post 11051, Enchant wrote:So, who we killing
Who do you suggest?
Go murderize mason claims, idk
Are you seriously fucking joking with this?
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Post Post #11060 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:39 pm

Post by Cat Scratch Fever »

What's the VC
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Post Post #11061 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:39 pm

Post by Cat Scratch Fever »

Also happy Friday y'all :]
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Post Post #11062 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:48 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 11049, Rad wrote:Luke this (and your other recent posts) is why I town read you and scum read Malcolm.
Awww <3

And here I was thinking it would be the cop inno on me.

Lol
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Post Post #11063 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:49 pm

Post by Rad »

In post 11050, Dancing Puppets wrote:
In post 11022, RCEnigma wrote:I’ll save a rad dive till tomorrow when I can actually go through the iso. I want to hear Nancy’s thoughts on Rad as well.
Lololol this is too funny after all so many of my reads have been stellar.

I will re-ISO him but I really think Bella probably visited Math on n1, so gth her RAD visit claim read to me as an attempt to justify Bell visit, so if you think extremely likely that Bella visited Math on n1 and not RAD - and seriously why would Bella heal RAD when he was being extremely hard tr after his posts during gladiate on d1, so scum likely realized Dunn softed vig and therefore it makes the most sense that Bella lied about visiting RAD on n1 and most likely healed Math since he’s rb. Corwin practically locktowned RAD. So without an extensive re-ISOing of RAD, I think it would be weird for Bella to lie about visiting her buddy if he’s scum but I only really trust my reads on certain players and being so wrong on Bella made me doubt how much I can trust some of my reads.

OtH, Taly, Drap, masons, you, BB and now DNA due to that paraphrase are the reads I feel extremely confident on rn. Iow, I would hard veto wagons on them. Other slots, I would have to take into account my own solve + listen to what others are saying.

So will reread RAD tomorrow.
Though I feel a bit bad about you spending time reading 460+ posts, I did the same for you + much of 3 other games, so the idea makes me kinda happy XD It broke my brain reading through all that so we would be equal-ish.

In case you just love reading:

newbie town game: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... ct[]=36603
newbie scum game (replaced in so shorter!): https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... ct[]=36603

(not sure why these links don't open my ISO directly but I tried to link to them)

My other games were 8 years ago on another site.

This is my third game since then :D
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Post Post #11064 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:51 pm

Post by Rad »

In post 11062, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 11049, Rad wrote:Luke this (and your other recent posts) is why I town read you and scum read Malcolm.
Awww <3

And here I was thinking it would be the cop inno on me.

Lol
lol dude I'm talking about the whole game.

It was more of a sneaky shading of Malcolm, cause I'm devious
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Post Post #11065 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:54 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Btw, if enchant flips scum, my town read on Malcom grows a bit stronger, because I made that whole enchant is scum case in our hood over night, and I'm still alive.

(I am assuming i was not saved? Becaise it feels like they would have needed to try and kill drap and that would mean that both the scum team AND a doctor decided not to target the tracker, so kind of assuming that is not the case)
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Post Post #11066 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:55 pm

Post by Rad »

RCE bp save makes sense to me *shrug*

Scum should be scared of a town!RCE here and the more town!Luke survives the more scummy he gets.
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Post Post #11067 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 5:00 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I feel like the scum team would prefer kills on drapion, mason1, mason2, pooky, or me over RCE personally.

Like pr claim or an unmiselimable. Of which, rce was neither.

So maybe? But I also assume there is a doc!Jack out there somewhere, and a save from him seems more likely to me
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Post Post #11068 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 5:12 pm

Post by Rad »

Drap
- maybe scum assumed doc would be on him and skipped? Or scum is bad and targeted him and doc saved (lol!).

Roden
- totally absent, why kill?

butterchurn
- reasonable kill for sure, he's active and seems smart, probably wishing they targeted him over whoever they targeted

pooky
- probably an easier day flip if town, i don't feel like pooky is a town leader here besides the spreadsheet stuff early

luke
- yeah i dunno, maybe doc was on you luke? but again, the more town!Luke survives, the more sus he becomes. Very specifically town!Luke fits that scenario of "if he's at end game, this guy is scum" kind of scapegoat possibility.

rce
- most have town reads on him, he's active, is open with his reads, might have some PR hunting on killing him, if he survives to end game no one is really all that suspicious (so far)

bb
- apparently no one cares about Ceph's input, if BB is town
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Post Post #11069 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 5:22 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

The scum have to kill the masons before endgame.

Like, I understand that they might not kill them right away if they feel like they have better targets, but I feel like they die before an rce shot.
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Post Post #11070 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 5:32 pm

Post by Rad »

RCE is as good a target as Bell was. Both widely town read and not the highest town reads so probably no doc.

Neither are as good as a town!Luke target but if you're trying to avoid doc, and letting luke gain that scummy late game vibe, why not?

Who cares about the masons right now? 1 is absent and 1 is active. The masons are still just a claim. Town can still turn on them even if it's a real claim. Hell, are you 100% sure they're masons? It's an easy claim and they could be scum. We accept them as masons cause the claim as scum is weird. Anyone who mentions a read list lists them as just town cause mason claim but who has actually spelled out why they read them as mason? I think just DP who read dwlee in the past few hours? Might be others that I don't remember, but I don't see them as something scum needs to dispatch immediately. I read butter as town but I've never read Roden as town beyond the claim.
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Post Post #11071 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 5:34 pm

Post by Rad »

In post 11041, Dancing Puppets wrote:This is too funny. :lol:

Titus had Roden as town due to VCA and I told her I’m a pretty decent a reading Dwlee so both are hard town for me both by mech and meta. Titus told me she forgot our convo about that.
Find another masons town read that specifies why they're town beyond the mason claim.
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Post Post #11072 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 5:36 pm

Post by Cat Scratch Fever »

i'd probably vote enchant over rad atp
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Post Post #11073 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 5:36 pm

Post by Rad »

Then you should vote enchant?
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Post Post #11074 (ISO) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 5:38 pm

Post by Cat Scratch Fever »

I think he's very close to lim already, and I'd prefer to not rush this day
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