Open 861: The Turing Test [game over]

[Vivax]

I don‘t really overthink this from what the slots actions were
Instead I just compared how carefully the posts were made, Aristeia with the random youtube pop-ins and less boxed in takes than RR simply looks townier

RR tried harder to make posts in a way that they justify a later consistency in voting

[Vivax]

Gun to head, I'd pick Kitty over Bell, but I still would much rather Vivax.

Example of boxed in thinking

[Loki Dokie]

Yeah maybe. RR never voting anyone but Dann doesn’t look great. I was right about Roden only voting Kuti after GL put him to e-1.

It makes sense why scum paired him with Vulture now.

[Loki Dokie]

Gun to head, I'd pick Kitty over Bell, but I still would much rather Vivax.

Example of boxed in thinking

Okay then, explain to me how you tr RR > me then? My posting was the complete antithesis of anything even remotely resembling “boxed in”.

That sheer level of nuanced posting is something I greatly struggle with doing as scum.

Like he was on your wagon but I unvoted you, so you tr him > me was just beyond whack.

[Vivax]

Gun to head, I'd pick Kitty over Bell, but I still would much rather Vivax.

Example of boxed in thinking

Okay then, explain to me how you tr RR > me then? My posting was the complete antithesis of anything even remotely resembling “boxed in”.

That sheer level of nuanced posting is something I greatly struggle with doing as scum.

Like he was on your wagon but I unvoted you, so you tr him > me was just beyond whack.

I don‘t disagree, but you are the type of player worthy of tinfoil that‘s not hard to see.
As such a player I might push you just because of that. Or because I like chaos in general and am not afraid of looking wrong as town (sometimes more, sometimes less)

Also cause you are effective at pushing counternarratives. When scum fools me it‘s cause they make me overthink or make the game simply unattractive to try in

[Vivax]

A game of mafia is like a miniature mirror of society
Or the societies one lives in

[Loki Dokie]

Apologies @RR for misgendering you.

[Vivax]

You should be able to infer I project the same degree of freedom I am allowed to enjoy into my games, and that I can trust who‘s around me to be tolerant

[Loki Dokie]

Gun to head, I'd pick Kitty over Bell, but I still would much rather Vivax.

Example of boxed in thinking

Okay then, explain to me how you tr RR > me then? My posting was the complete antithesis of anything even remotely resembling “boxed in”.

That sheer level of nuanced posting is something I greatly struggle with doing as scum.

Like he was on your wagon but I unvoted you, so you tr him > me was just beyond whack.

I don‘t disagree, but you are the type of player worthy of tinfoil that‘s not hard to see.
As such a player I might push you just because of that. Or because I like chaos in general and am not afraid of looking wrong as town (sometimes more, sometimes less)

Also cause you are effective at pushing counternarratives. When scum fools me it‘s cause they make me overthink or make the game simply unattractive to try in

You vastly overestimate my scumgame. I only wish I was that capable of mimicking that as scum. Perhaps in 5 years, maybe?

[Loki Dokie]

I have to look it up but I also think that both RR and Roden were paranoiaing on GL. Also. I guess RR’s reaction to Ari push was objectively pretty bad. God only knows why you were tr them for that.

[Vivax]

I have to look it up but I also think that both RR and Roden were paranoiaing on GL. Also. I guess RR’s reaction to Ari push was objectively pretty bad. God only knows why you were tr them for that.

The mech is rather townsided. Opinions given on people outside of the pair aren‘t that relevant until they show up in another pair.

If you build up a meta of never being wrong as town, how do you want to scum?

[Vivax]

If you roll scum in this setup, the phrase

if you don‘t have a good pair better have a good hand

applies

[fireisredsir]

reread overnight and had it at, from town to scum,

loki > vivax > ari > GL > RR

and have been p sure it's just RR for a long time now. so what would their options be? i don't think there's any way they could get away with picking loki. picking vivax is a throw if anyone looks at d1. its hard for me to know what other people would think but im pretty sure ari and GL at least would fight for me as town if i was put up there. so i think the main options really were ari or GL. both are also strong leaders, especially as conftown, likely to just insist on voting RR, so removing that voice is p valuable

so i don't think it's that surprising that RR would choose ari. unfortunately i don't think i can 100% clear ari bc i think her play after d1 is p close to how she would probably play this as scum. but i really think her d1 is not scummy, especially after the roden flip, i think there's several places where she looks v unaligned with roden

meanwhile there's literally nothing clearing for RR, everything that they've done has fit with a scum agenda, especially now knowing the full rest of the team

[fireisredsir]

also idk what you two are talking about or why reads on each other are relevant, we're all town here

[fireisredsir]

wish i had just stuck with the solve and gotten it right yesterday but oh well

[fireisredsir]

prob like 3 of [rr, kuti, kitty, roden] plus 2 of [bell, ari, GL]

if kitty is scum then scum want cred for flipping there and want to pivot that into a town leader position

flipping kitty here is not bad tho. i think it's more likely to be scum than vivax

I think there is probably scum on KT wagon (regardless of KT alignment) but the people I think are best candidates for scum on it (namely Bell and posssssiiiibly one of Vulture/Vivax) look more like reluctant bussing votes rather than scum-pushing-for-a-miselim votes. I have opposite feelings about the Vivax wagon, it's not hard for me to imagine any of RR/kuti/KT/Roden votes there as scum hopping on a limbait townie

i think that this is a pretty reasonable view of things and is also p close to how i see things if i assume that you're town. im not exactly confident on that point but maybe that's a sign that i should be

i also kinda think that if ari is scum, then my solve here (and subsequent post where i hint at leaning town on GL) would make her want me dead over dann? but id also think that the team with RR would want GL dead over dann due to him also having a correct poe in the quoted post, so idk. ig if they felt like they were putting up kuti/bell/roden first, then dann had more direct pressure on those three

then again dann was the one who suggested that kitty was being actively sacrificed by scum, so... hm. maybe it's not surprising that he would be chosen by ari

[GuiltyLion]

what's good my fellow Confirmed Townies of the Town

so I want to reread and take my time with this

just at a high level, my feeling is both the times I picked the more town-looking player playing the more 'competent' scumgame as scum it was wrong (Dann, Vulture), so the 101 take would be not to make that mistake again and go for Rat here

but there were a few bits of Rats play yesterday that felt kinda townie to me if Roden was scum? like a lot of my feeling on them was they were trying to defend Greeting/Vulture and push Roden for somewhat contrived reasons, yet turns out they were right

also the other doubt I have is - are we really in a do-or-die 2-2 situation if no one on the scumteam was playing a strong manipulative game and all were widely suspected? Is that just inherent to the setup, or does it make more sense if Ari is behind the scenes doing juuuust enough to steer things away from complete disaster for scum?

anyways I want to sit on this but glad I have you all to work through it with. fire what makes you say Ari is obviously unaligned with Roden?

[fireisredsir]

What game were we both in where I was scum? Or is that just a general read?

in the coalition game you were significantly more townie when pressured. Coalition Micro

similarly in Fusion Upick

when you're scum you tend to kind of don't have that kind of edge/angry tone in your voice.

You don't have the same kind of edge when defending yourself and it feels like you're not quite really here and more importantly you don't feel like you want to be here.

SCP
Radio Buzz


I understand from your last completed mini normal[2276] you were fustrated over being nightkilled on n1 and perhaps not wanting to be nightkilled would be a valid explanation for maybe not being as townie as you have been in the past but this game is not really that sort of game.

in this game, scum can't just shoot the towniest townies - it would be quite suicidal of them to do so because it would make the 1v1s quite lopsided, they have to actually shoot in the murky middle so to speak, as a result you should be trying to be as townie as possible but it doesn't feel like you're enthusiastic about this game at all.

I don't understand the Roden wagon. He's got three posts, and none of them strike me as particularly scummy.

Yeah same. Roden is very null to me.

I don't understand how you can sus the loki voters and also be null on roden

this feels like a contradiction to me.

this especially is what makes me think town ari. right before this she's pressuring bell a bit (not necessarily clearing, bc getting bell to talk more is probably a goal a bell scumpartner would have), and then she turns on roden, going in depth into accurate meta differences between his scum on townplay. i don't think she's making this up. and i think she tends to believe that people have difficulty changing their meta, so i don't think she would call this out and pile pressure on roden, bc if she believes that roden is sortable under pressure, then she is making her scum partner more visible

immediately after, she then pivots to kitty, and also draws attention specifically to the kitty/roden connection. all of this just actively hurts the scumteam. if she's scum, she knows that she will almost certainly be the final one left. she knows that getting this cred d1 isn't likely to last long enough to clear her on the final day, and is just going to put her team in a bad position

if ari wants to hard bus d1, which is the required assumption for her to be scum here, i think she just commits to one of them and drives it through. continuing to poke around and solve elsewhere, sorting other players, finding correct connections, is not worth the relatively minor amount that it makes her look good

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: Roden

I think KittyTacky is a better vote tbh Bell

VOTE: Kitty

What caused this switch?

Yeah I saw that. What made you decide on Kitty over me? There's no progression, you just switched over and had no response to the answer I gave you.

668

Also what caused you to join the first Done/Greeting wagon but avoid the second one?

547


I think the game would be significantly less aggravating for both of us if you actually read what I post instead of making me explain it to you again.

???

Wtf is this random lash out for

I just wanted to know if there was something more to it

this also just felt unaligned to me

[fireisredsir]

and

ari scum knows that she's going to have to get rid of bell at some point

she probably also expects that he's going to lose the test

she knew i would vote bell over furtive and willingly sheeped me on that day

so if she's just going to let bell die with no resistance, why put him up against furtive? furtive felt like someone that scum put up bc they thought they had a chance at elimming there

[fireisredsir]

but there were a few bits of Rats play yesterday that felt kinda townie to me if Roden was scum? like a lot of my feeling on them was they were trying to defend Greeting/Vulture and push Roden for somewhat contrived reasons, yet turns out they were right

i don't think there's really any downside to doing this as scum? at start of day they were leaning vulture. ari and you and me all clearly thought rat was scum, and also were leaning vulture. ari even directly called out that she was curious if rat would continue voting vulture.

so rat switched to roden. now there's town voting vulture, and they see scum voting the counter. that's probably actually the best play they could have made in terms of ensuring that nobody starts to doubt why everyone is okay with voting vulture

[fireisredsir]

the way I think about the scum team win condition is;

they all have to get through the gauntlet

eventually

like regardless of what the scum team is - the way they win the game is to get the town to flip the other person - which more or less means the scum players have to each pass through the gauntlet unless they win early, and it means the scum team necessarily must be revealed over time - similar to perpetual mylo except the scum have some extra agency in terms of getting to pick the gladiate.

The best way for the scum to do this is to set up associative pushes that look good on D1 so that as they are flipped, one flip begets another.

Like let's say someone like Bell who is pretty bad at scum[no offense Bell] is on the scum team.

The scum team would necessarily see Bell as somewhat of a liability, he basically is unable to replicate his town!meta when he's scum, he's just kind of a sitting duck.

So the best way to cash that liability into something good for the scum team is to push him D1, cash him in for towncred early - Bell even had the early vote on Kitty to establish distancing that way so that if Bell goes down Kitty gets somewhat reflected Towncred.

It feels like the whole bus Bell for Cred plan didn't work out for Dann because Bell wasn't as obvscum as people required for him to actually go down and eventually kitty became more or less inevitable.

Once Kitty went down and scored a point for town, the calculus regarding Bell kind of changes - it's not really viable to bus him at that point because going down 2-0 is basically a death sentence, so the scum have to get him through the gauntlet

somehow

.

There's two ways Bell/Dann!scum can go as a team.

Bell first and then Dann

or Dann first and then Bell.


It feels incredibly hard for Bell -> Dann to work out for the scum because it would look very strange for Dann to suddenly flip his read of Bell on a dime, can he get away with readflipping, getting Bell home and then escape intact himself? I think that's very tricky for him to do. Remember he has to be able to navigate that readflip without anything from Bell

and

survive with enough towncred to get himself out safely.

Otherwise he's stuck double-bussing and playing from 0-2 down which is kind of difficult even against a town that's flipping coins atp.

Dann flipping first however would generate towncred for Bell because it creates distance since Dann was trying to yeet Bell on D1. It's a much cleaner transition for the scum team and I think it just makes sense strategically as a play than the other way around.

Now in the Town!Dann Scum!Bell world; you'd have Bell deciding to hardbus Kitty d1, and then hardbus Kuti d2 and it feels super ~throwy~ ? like the play is so bad for scum I just can't see scum Bell deciding to play that way.

i went back to find this post thinking that it was the one thing that made me wary about ari (and at the time, it did, i felt like one of you or ari could easily be scum pushing back against the kuti choice from a strongly townread position), but looking at it now, i just kinda believe it?

like she is so deeply entrenched in the dann/bell mindset here. ive seen town ari do this a lot. it's probably not impossible to fake but idk, i buy it. i think as scum she would be more aware of the fact that this world that she is proposing is actually wrong, and would struggle to project the confidence of being in that mindset

[fireisredsir]

it just feels like kuti's stereotypical surface level LHF being set up to get an easy point and I kind of think scum

need

a win now.

If anything I agree with Fire's take that scum have every incentive to lob wifom balls with Scummy Scum paired with Townie Townie in order to trick us but I think they throw a fastball down the middle first to set up the wifom later.[yes baseball analogy I am a geek]

i think this bit is mildly scummy but eh it isn't enough to outweigh the rest for me

[fireisredsir]

really my biggest doubt is that i question why RR picked ari over GL. i think there's more that imo clears ari here and i would have been at least tempted to vote GL over RR, tbh

i was hoping they would pick vivax cause that would be an easy vote

[Loki Dokie]

vote count 4.final

with 6 votes in play, it takes 4 to make a decision. day 4 ends in (expired on 2022-08-29 23:15:00).

yeet

Vulture [4]:

GuiltyLion, Aristeia, Loki Dokie, fireisredsir

[HAMMER]

Roden [1]:

Vivax

not voting [1]:

Radical Rat

mod notes

~ this is a mod note.

vote count 1.final

with 13 votes in play, it took 7 to make a decision. day 1 ended.

yeet

KittyTacky [7]:

Bell

, Aristeia,

GuiltyLion, Dannflor, Vulture, Vivax, fireisredsir

[HAMMER]

Vivax [5]:

Radical Rat,

furtiveglance

,

kutiplz, KittyTacky, Roden

not voting [1]:

Loki Dokie

mod notes

~ i was literally about to sleep, why do you do this to me