Open 861: The Turing Test [game over]

[Loki Dokie]

If Ari’s scum here, she’s playing brilliantly but I really think she’s town and RR being extremely scummy allgame doesn’t hurt either.

That’s why I think her d1 hardpush on Kitty likely makes her town because let’s say RR was paired with Vulture, he probably wins. If a flamingo obvscum slot like Roden fooled us > Vultue, hands freaking down, RR vs. Vulture would be a slam dunk by comparison.

I think as scum in this setup, you want to do whatever’s necessary to prevent your entire team from facing the gauntlet.

Sure you can argue that Ari gets towncred from the Kitty flip but this is a game scum can lose with one or two scum still alive in the game, so like I said, unless you have a flaming obvious scumslot and I don’t believe Kitty was, it’s seriously anti-wincon to risk hardbussing in this knd of setup.

I think only Bell was bussing because his scumgame is so weak, scum were obviously counting on that to get him townread. Otoh, scum!Ari doesn’t need to hardbus a teammate when doing so was suboptimal and even unnecessary.

She could have vetoed Vivax and hardpushed Vulture and probably look supertownie doing that, why does she hardbus Kitty here when it really makes no sense to do so?

[fireisredsir]

yea in general i agree. ari has talked in the past about how as scum she mostly just wants to yeet townies and doesn't care much about how she looks doing it. it's possible she'd go out of her way to break that preconception, but i think it's a p big leap to see her as scum here anyway

[Loki Dokie]

In a more traditional game, scum can theory bus or almost bus their entire team and still win but not in this setup. Scum can lose with two scum still alive, so unless a slot is beyond flaming obvscum, you just don’t do that. Kitty was far from dead in the water, so Ari hardbussing himfor towncred makes very little sene in this kind of setup. And like you pointed out @fire, if scum was actually attempting to cut their losses with Bell, they don’t throw furivd into the pit when they have much better options if the objective was to sacrifice him.

Yeah, the more and more I think about it. so much about Ari’s play really doesn’t make a whole helluva a lot of sense if she’s scum here.

I think RR was going into the pit irrespective of their alignment, so why does scum!Ari even need to setup town!RR in advance? The only townie who was tr them was Vivax.

[GuiltyLion]

hmmm y'all are making nice and convincing arguments and making me not wanna reread

I'll try to do it tomorrow but yeah I am finding fire's reasoning convincing enough to quell paranoia

[fireisredsir]

it would make me feel better if you reread :>

i feel reasonably confident but i don't want to miss anything

[fireisredsir]

i will also reread to see how rat played d2 until now just to make sure i feel good about that fitting, since tbh i was mostly binning them as scum and didn't look that closely

[Loki Dokie]

I also question why scum!Ari would dare town!RR to vote Vulture, it’s not like she really needed their vote. In fact, had they called her bluff and actually voted them, they’d be looking a lot better.

[Loki Dokie]

Loki Dokie

, you are creating artificial and unnecessary pressure for a

Roden

wagon. It's true that his ISO isn't very towny, but this is not obvscum. If you're town, then take a step back and let him explain himself.

I have a hard time believing Greeting posts this if Roden is town and Greeting is scum. It doesn't feel white-knighty in the least

I couldn’t understand the scum reasons for the pairing until I remembered this post. I think Vulture was the ONLY townie, Roden had even a snowball’s chance in hell of beating.

[Loki Dokie]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... B%5D=35974

More evidence suggesting Ari!town here. In her scumgame, she is far more reactive than proactive like she was in PYP and here.

In both PYP and this game, she’s actively solving, in her scumgame, she mostly prioritized tearing down other people’s solves, instead of independently doing it herself.

[Loki Dokie]

What game were we both in where I was scum? Or is that just a general read?

in the coalition game you were significantly more townie when pressured. Coalition Micro

similarly in Fusion Upick

when you're scum you tend to kind of don't have that kind of edge/angry tone in your voice.

You don't have the same kind of edge when defending yourself and it feels like you're not quite really here and more importantly you don't feel like you want to be here.

SCP
Radio Buzz


I understand from your last completed mini normal[2276] you were fustrated over being nightkilled on n1 and perhaps not wanting to be nightkilled would be a valid explanation for maybe not being as townie as you have been in the past but this game is not really that sort of game.

in this game, scum can't just shoot the towniest townies - it would be quite suicidal of them to do so because it would make the 1v1s quite lopsided, they have to actually shoot in the murky middle so to speak, as a result you should be trying to be as townie as possible but it doesn't feel like you're enthusiastic about this game at all.

Fusion was just a dumb Day 1 and A50 was being an asshole

Coalition I was mad because I was invested and actually correct on 90% of my reads and fire played like shit which pissed me off more

Not really comparable to a game that hasn't gone anywhere yet and I'm getting D1 voted for the same shit I say literally every game

As for SCP, I was literally at Disneyland on vacation and town fantasized a reason to scum read me, I didn't seem like I wanted to be in that because I legit didn't want to be for a few days lol

Radio Buzz...ehhh my only excuse is that everyone spammed the thread and I couldn't keep up

Besides that I have plenty of town games where I never really got mad, and a few scum games where I was invested immediately. I don't really think this meta analysis holds up when looking at the entirety of my game history.

This doesn’t look SvS to me.

[Loki Dokie]

Too lazy to gather and trim quotes right now, but...

Shading kuti for asking for past games
- I see your point that it's probably NAI and a weird thing to push, but it was pretty early without much else to go on... Could go either way.

Theater with Roden
-A bit presumptuous, but very possible, especially with the provided quotes from past games. And you're right that distancing is crucial for scum in this setup

Kitty shading Dann
-This one is real interesting to me, because it does seem to foreshadow Dannflor's presence in the test today, and while speculating on what we were supposed to think of Dannflor after Kitty's flip is WIFOM I will not engage with here, I do think it's more likely scum planned which of them would die ahead of time than them planning a Townie.

Referring to you as an easy push
-This is probably the most compelling argument for me. I do not believe that him either recognizing or not recognizing you is AI, BUT even without that it should have been plainly obvious that you're not going to be easy to get rid of that way, so it does kinda sound like scum had decided you'd be a mislim target and Dannflor was slightly slipping that.

And who did Roden blatantly distance from - ONLY RR.

Perhaps, Vulture being so scummy wrt to both d2 & 3, was an unexpectedly gift for scum? Because Roden hands down loses by a freaking landslide to virtually anyone else in the entire playerlist.

Vivax being the only town actually right on Roden was never going to be dragged into the pit.

[Loki Dokie]

I agree, it has to be Bell here, and your defense of him is probably exactly why.

I didn't personally find anything particularly scummy about Bell, but I do think furtive was pretty Townie, and I believe someone said before that inactivity was scum indicative for Bell? And indeed he hasn't been super active.

Extremely ironically, that “someone” was Ari. However, RR could be testing the waters, knowing that Bell was probably going down anyway and didn’t want to make waves.

But he never once - during the entire game ever voted for a single scum. The only flipped scum who voted when it actually could have made any difference was Bell. In fact, RR didn’t vote for ANYONE either d3 or d4. Similar to Roden’s completely useless Kuti vote and claimed WIFOM as his reason despite hard tr Dann.

There probably isn’t any game ever where votes are more AI than in this game.

[Loki Dokie]

vote count 1.final

with 13 votes in play, it took 7 to make a decision. day 1 ended.

yeet

KittyTacky [7]:

Bell

, Aristeia, GuiltyLion,

Dannflor

, Vulture, Vivax, fireisredsir

[HAMMER]

Vivax [5]:

Radical Rat,

furtiveglance

,

kutiplz, KittyTacky

, Roden

not voting [1]:

Loki Dokie

mod notes

~ i was literally about to sleep, why do you do this to me

I think specifically because of the mech, it’s extremely unlikely that 4/5 scum were on Vivax and only one bussed.

agree with this

I don't think it makes sense for the scum team to bus KT and have a massive bloc of votes on vivax because bus credit for bell is somewhat useless.[sorry bell]

So I think perhaps maybe the strongest argument for Ari!town could be this one? Scum!Ari would obviously know that RR would be confitown by this, so it makes absolutely no conceivably sense for her to make this post and drag town!RR into the pit with her.

For Ari to be scum here, she would have to be playing some extremely highly evolved element of 3D chess here and I can’t count on one hand how many times, I’ve ever seen scum do this. I think Ari’s just town here.

In a game where scum can lose with 1-2 of their buddies alive, it makes absolutely no sense to put a scum wincon at risk by seeking towncred d1. Like I said, scum!Ari could still look good vetoing Vivax and hardpushing Vulture, because she would look both unaligned and deprive town of that critical one point but her scumgame doesn’t even remotely resemble her play in PYP, where as this one totally does.

RR’s progression on Vulture really doesn’t make a whole lot of sense but it does if you factor in the they knew that as a result of Roden being paired with Vulture, they were now everyone’s most agreed upon sr.

[Loki Dokie]

Post Post #1212 (isolation #3) » Mon Aug 15, 2022 10:35 pm

In post 1149, Aristeia wrote:

i think Bell/Dann are S/S and this game is basically over

I have bad news.
~ Bell

So Bell was actually telling the truth here, he just meant that Ari was wrong on Dann not him.

@RR don’t you think this interaction with Ari and Bell looks antipartnery?

@RR?

Sorry, brain's been a bit scattered lately.

But no, not really. A toothless accusation on one Town and one partner, when only the Town is relevant in the moment, followed by Bell making a token "Not scum" statement. Seems like pretty standard stuff to me

I really didn’t like how they just dismissed this, particularly when they argued something very similar as a reason for Vulture being town but unlike Vivax, didn’t really push that too hard but it’s primarily the inconsistency between their Ari read and Vulture for arguably very similar reasons, that pings me.

[Loki Dokie]

I really don’t think Ari’s posting makes a whole helluva lot of sense here from a scum perspective.

+ Roden’s cringe over the top attempt at wifomming us with fake distancing RR. Scum buddies usually don’t actually try to pretty much hit you over the head with that but it’s like

*Roden practically doing cartwheels to make us want to think the two are never aligned*

is beyond fake af. If you compare and contrast Kitty/Roden otoh - that’s believable scum distancing.

[Loki Dokie]

1737

VOTE: Radical Rat

e-1

Probably not going to change my mind on this unless someone makes an extremely compelling argument why I’m wrong here.

[fireisredsir]

i don't feel any need to rush until we're at a consensus, so im not gonna vote until everyone is ready, but im in the same place p much

gonna reread from d2 now tho, ive mostly focused on d1

[fireisredsir]

ok yea on d2 im remembering how much i disliked the way rat was using a preflip on vulture and hiding behind loki to shift their read over towards voting dann

it also came at a time when there were higher numbers leaning kuti, including bell and roden. ari did end up going for dann as well, but it came a lot later, she didn't really do much to influence in the early stages of d2

[fireisredsir]

i think Bell/Dann are S/S and this game is basically over

I agree zomg, with RR/Vivax for the third.

RadicalRat? How so?

Feels like they're deliberately positioning themselves to align with certain players rather than natural thought process and see if people agree.

this is exactly what RR was doing and may be why furtive got put up against bell

[fireisredsir]

ok furtive was actually on the right track d2, with a bell/RR solve in 1207 and looking for the third, and mentioning roden as a possibility in the next post. he just was wrong on dann

so while at least GL and I had a pretty similar solve, we were less vocal about it at the time, so it makes a lot of sense that scum would feel threatened by furtive there

i don't think ari would feel threatened by him at all, and there were plenty of others to kill who were suspicious of roden

i still think GL is the better kill since he at least implied the correct solve as well in 1216, but idk. maybe they also thought that furtive at least had a chance of losing the test, and that made it worth it

[fireisredsir]

im also not really sure if scum ari floats the idea of sheeping me on kuti and then turns around and keeps pushing hard for dann

but it is true that her big posts on why we should vote dann and why kuti was town came right as it felt like i was starting to get through to GL, and the loki switches back to kuti, and suddenly kuti might be the lim

so it is exactly perfect timing for scum to come in big and take control of the thread to drag things back towards dann. so that is still concerning for me, but it's not enough

[fireisredsir]

reading d3 with all of us assuming scum roden im really not sure how we all just managed to talk ourselves out of it d4 lol

[fireisredsir]

ari played d4 very well if she's scum

[fireisredsir]

eh ok im not as confident as id like to be, but im pretty sure it's just RR

it just looks to me like RR spent all of the testing phase trying their best to buddy loki. i don't get much feeling of behind the scenes solving from them

ok GL your turn

[Vivax]

Hello frens, have you figured out where captain Morgan hid the booty yet?