LOST: Dead Thread

[ProfessorDrapion]

Although it could just be Taly slot doing the kills since I did save them day 1

[Rad]

I dunno. There was a point where I attack DP(butterflies) almost randomly (gut read way early) and Malcolm jumps on me for it. I feel like that was more likely white-knighting but yeah, could be scum protecting. Nancy does come to slowly trust me again after that while Malcolm did not.

If Nancy is scum she played a scum game way beyond what I would expect out of scum. BBT caught her early though if scum.

I think a more likely grouping is OTH + Pooky. I thought Taly was scum early though so maybe OTH + Taly.

[ProfessorDrapion]

I don’t think it’s Hook tbh.

[ProfessorDrapion]

Their response during the last day I was alive didn’t seem like a wolf but rather a town with a town perspective.
Basically they didn’t seem informed that I was town tracker and genuinely believed me to be wolf where Nora did not and butterflies barely did and as I said butterflies took a 1v1 like approach on me cause they are a wolf.

[Rad]

OTH claimed Drap + johnny which makes absolutely no sense IMO.

[MathBlade]

Why would you expect someone to make sense?

That just reinforced group think vs town/scum.

I get scumread so much as town because I disagree not because I am scummy.

[Rad]

I just mean it seems like an easy pairing to point to, in order to get Drap limmed, which is when it happened.

OTH can back off that after drap flips town (Oops!).

Drap + Johnny doesn't make sense from a pairing perspective when OTH suggested it. Yeah town can make bad calls. I find it more likely motive for scum to push that idea when OTH did though.

But I mean, you pushing me on this idea Math makes me assume I'm just wrong lol ;P Which could certainly be the case.

[Rad]

Why would you expect someone to make sense?

That just reinforced group think vs town/scum.

I get scumread so much as town because I disagree not because I am scummy.

I'll put some thought into this concept though cause that's really interesting

[ProfessorDrapion]

OTH claimed Drap + johnny which makes absolutely no sense IMO.

Nah I understood it as I know they already stated to wolf read me before my fake red check.

[ProfessorDrapion]

as I said the wolves are just Butterflies and Taly Slot (Nora)

[RH9]

Although it could just be Taly slot doing the kills since I did save them day 1

Good point.

[MathBlade]

I just mean it seems like an easy pairing to point to, in order to get Drap limmed, which is when it happened.

OTH can back off that after drap flips town (Oops!).

Drap + Johnny doesn't make sense from a pairing perspective when OTH suggested it. Yeah town can make bad calls. I find it more likely motive for scum to push that idea when OTH did though.

But I mean, you pushing me on this idea Math makes me assume I'm just wrong lol ;P Which could certainly be the case.

*pours wine*

You’re welcome and enjoy!

If I get you to think more and enjoy the game after death I am doing my job

[Bell]

Only mistake I made this game was saving the Taly wagon.

No. This was not your only mistake.

[ProfessorDrapion]

Only mistake I made this game was saving the Taly wagon.

No. This was not your only mistake.

Only one I don’t regret.
(Other then maybe RCE execution, probably shouldn’t have done that but they were PoE and I couldn’t see them as town.)

[Bell]

Fair enough. I'm not the arbiter of your reality. All I can do is point at my request again and ask you to think about it.

[ProfessorDrapion]

The goal of mafia is as town aligned is to eliminate all wolves from the game.
It doesn’t matter how you go about it.

[ProfessorDrapion]

I strictly follow my win condition.

[Bell]

The goal of mafia is as town aligned is to eliminate all wolves from the game.
It doesn’t matter how you go about it.

It does matter how you go about it. For example you can't threaten someone with physical harm to gain an in game advantage.

[MathBlade]

It absolutely does. I agree with Bell.

Being antitown gives room for scum to capitalize.

There are times when it is appropriate to do so but if you look at some games I have had the protown people had my scumteam dead to rights but then propping up bad town drowns out the good.

Town lost a few days of scum hunting due to your gambit.

[MathBlade]

I strictly follow my win condition.

We are not saying you’re not following your wincon.

We are saying that there’s generally better plays to do.

Fake claiming guilties is on the newbie don’t list.

[MathBlade]

Especially with a player like me who is good at framing a narrative. Just don’t.

[Bell]

I strictly follow my win condition.

I'm kind of stuck on this one.
I'm basically asking you not to pull this type of gambit because the mathematics don't work out in town's favor.
let's eliminate the probable mason pair.
2/7 *100 = 28.57%
There's the hard math. You had a 71.43% chance of being wrong.

The rest is fuzzy variables.
But other things you might weigh and play with.
1. What is the percentage chance you will be miseliminated if you're wrong with this fake claim?
2. What was the percentage chance you would have been miseliminated if you didn't make the gambit?
3. What was the percentage chance that without your fake claim scum would have been eliminated?

I think if you weigh this honestly you'll see that it was pretty much a risk that was unnecessary and weighed against you.
It was an unforced error and while you're arguing that your gambit revealed the remaining scum. Objectively it didn't, it's a fuzzy variable.

[ProfessorDrapion]

If I didn’t do the gambit I would have been a night kill I am forcing Butterflies and Taly to have to kill someone outside of the known confirm so probably BestBird.

[ProfessorDrapion]

I know you might not realize this but if I can call out the remaining mafia and become an ML when I was originally a destined night kill, is really good in the end cause it forces mafia to confirm someone not confirmed via night kill.

[ProfessorDrapion]

I don’t regret what I did.
Town would have been ML’ed either way if you put it on in simulation.

This way I removed a night kill they needed and forced it into an ML which unknowingly is actually bad for wolves.