Datisi's Café [game over!]

[Ircher]

Her read on me, and that's all that really matters.

[jjh927]

You said reads plural and indicated that you reached this conclusion after reading her entire iso rather than just her stance on you

[Nero Cain]

that post does nothing but pour gas on the fire.

[Something_Smart]

jjh makes me feel like I have no purpose in this game

[Ircher]

You said reads plural and indicated that you reached this conclusion after reading her entire iso rather than just her stance on you

Semantics, semantics.

I did read her ISO in the sense I glanced through all the posts. Anyway, Roden is town. Vivax is scum.

[jjh927]

You literally did just come in and say

"Mastina's reads are bad!"
"Well actually I don't mean all of her reads, just her read on me."

Did you know you have a wagon with like 9 people on it and a bunch of the people who aren't on it also think you're probably scum

[Ircher]

Fwiw, mastina is likely town despite the reads. I'm just saying her accuracy is low as is typical for her D1 despite her confidence.

[Ircher]

You literally did just come in and say

"Mastina's reads are bad!"
"Well actually I don't mean all of her reads, just her read on me."

Did you know you have a wagon with like 9 people on it and a bunch of the people who aren't on it also think you're probably scum

No, I haven't read a page with a vote count on it.

[jjh927]

I'm pretty sure if I voted you right now you'd be E-1

[Ircher]

I'm fine with that.

[Something_Smart]

Ircher, please pick a productive line of thought instead of whatever this mastina shade is.

[Ircher]

Again, it's not shade. It's facts. mastina's reads day 1 are poor. Period. Everyone should know that given how confident she expresses them.

[jjh927]

I mean, my day 1 reads are unambiguously top tier and you're also in my scumreads

[Ircher]

Even paragons get it wrong at times.

[Nero Cain]

U LIE!

[Nero Cain]

paragons are never ever wrong and their reads are 100% correct 100% of the time

[jjh927]

Right but the point is that maybe rather than trying to defend yourself by shitting on another player's reputation you should focus on actual reads you actually have

[jjh927]

And this is a "don't glance through the posts, actually read them" kind of situation because that's a minimum level of effort required for you to play to wincon if you're somehow town here

[Vivax]

is mastina town then?

I have some reservations about the mimi 0% productivity thing. It's just too bigbrain as scum to pass up, and I don't think mastina isn't bigbrain. But could be wrong.

[furtiveglance]

Also, I did confirm with the mod that there is guaranteed to be at least one VT in the game. I assume there is also more than one VT in the game, and guessing the ratio of PR to VT is probably pretty important. I was estimating somewhere around 2:1 to 1:1-- having too many VT's makes it trivially easy to keep productivity up. Since we need to average at least 75%, if we assume 2:1 PR:VT, the PR's would need to average around 62%, which honestly isn't bad.

The tricky thing is that hitting way too high is also pretty devastating for town because we lose a lot of power. So we should probably aim for no higher than 85%, which would require a PR average of 78%.

So my (almost) completely uninformed take is that most PR's should be producing between 62-78%. Since mastina is committed to 0 and is probably roughly 10% of town's PR's, shift that up 10% for today, so 68-86%.

For the record, I am also locktownning Something Smart for this post.

This is setup, maths and probability spec from someone who obviously loves this kind of thing. How is it town indicative?

[jjh927]

I mean, one thing I haven't seen discussed on a strategic level is the idea that if we were all mafia-playing robots and not people with varying skill levels, optimal play would probably be for everyone with a PR to do 0% on day 1 so that they have 100% banked for using power roles, and we just bite the bullet of the probably two extra kills in N1.

Not all players are equal though so this would cause things to tank on a dayplay level

[jjh927]

But anyway, Mastina declaring 0% is absolutely town indicative because no matter what- Mastina made that decision with thought behind it. Scum!Mastina avoids fakeclaims, especially in a situation like this where there's so many unknowns that could unravel it. And if Mastina was scum, declaring any percentage would be a fakeclaim that might become unraveled.

[Andresvmb]

Well, because we were on course for an Ircher lim for presumably good reason, and when I checked in I saw a bunch of strange stuff, and the strangest one was him posting a list with mostly reasonable people at the bottom, imho.

VOTE: Ircher

I'll go back to Ircher, actually. L-1
But more tomorrow when I'm sober if nobody hammers.

I think this slot is Scum too actually. Up to where I read, I wouldn’t move my vote on Ydrasse, but I’ll keep reading.

If Ircher flips Town, blow this up.

[Klick]

If mastina is scum, it is true that she's not going to contribute at all to productivity early on (or ever)
I wouldn't write her off with that reasoning

[furtiveglance]

But anyway, Mastina declaring 0% is absolutely town indicative because no matter what- Mastina made that decision with thought behind it. Scum!Mastina avoids fakeclaims, especially in a situation like this where there's so many unknowns that could unravel it. And if Mastina was scum, declaring any percentage would be a fakeclaim that might become unraveled.

What about "uh yeah that was a bait guys I'm VT" in a couple days? Not that I'm saying this is definitely the most likely scenario...