Datisi's Café [game over!]

[Titus]

Mastina is highly unlikely to be scum.

[Uncrowned]

that's not the point i'm trying to make

what i'm saying is S_S has been saying for most of the game that she's been at least somewhat scummy, though I'd argue the more recent posting is more than just "somewhat"

i feel like the actions (or lack of action, to be specific) aren't really matching up with the read

[Titus]

So in simple terms, you're saying mastina has been scummy?

[Uncrowned]

no, i'm saying that S_S has been saying that she's been scummy

i can see the confusion, the second part should be rephrased to say: "though i'd argue his more recent posting (S_S's) is suggesting she's scummier than just "somewhat" scummy"

english is fun

[Uncrowned]

i think mastina is solidly townie and like most of her read list outside of disagreeing on luke i'd say

[Titus]

I'm also slow on the uptake this AM and haven't read last night.

I'm not a fan of a mastina wagon.

[Titus]

i think mastina is solidly townie and like most of her read list outside of disagreeing on luke i'd say

Can you copy paste her last one?

[Uncrowned]

LOCKTOWN:
{Vivax, jjh927, Something_Smart}
{PenguinPower} (almost part of above)
{Ydrasse, Uncrowned, Andresvmb}
{furtiveglance} (could maybe be above)

HARD-TOWN:
{Ausuka}

SOFT TOWN:
{Klick}

{Malakittens, Titus}

POE POSSIBLE SCUM:
{RCEnigma}

LIKELY SCUM:
{fireisredsir}

SCUM:
{Lukewarm}

{Roden}

LOCKTOWN:
{Vivax, jjh927, Something_Smart}
{PenguinPower} (almost part of above)
{Ydrasse, Uncrowned, Andresvmb, furtiveglance, Ausuka}

SOFT TOWN:
{Klick}

{Malakittens, Titus}

POE POSSIBLE SCUM:
{RCEnigma}

LIKELY SCUM:
{fireisredsir}

SCUM:
{Lukewarm}

{Roden}

Vivax, jjh, and Something_Smart are all locktown for different, but closely linked, reasons. They have all shown a towntell that I believe demonstrates they

cannot

be scum here and absolutely must be town. All look town to me by play anyway, but that tell has me convinced each of them is town.

PenguinPower

is almost up there, because I believe PP spotted

half

of what I saw on S_S, but not the half which makes S_S town. S_S towntold in a way that cannot be scum, but if you saw only half of it, you'd think the opposite, that S_S spewed himself as scum. I have to be quite tight-lipped about this to not reveal what it is tho, but I think that PP seeing half makes him town.

Ydrasse

,

Uncrowned

, and

Andresvmp

are purely play-based reads without the secret towntell present. I'm still sticking to this being Ydrasse's towngame. It's weaker than before, but Ydrasse radiated town earlier in a way I don't think is scum. Uncrowned's content has constantly been town. I've loved Andres's D2 posting (some in particular), and there's not enough room on a scumteam for both him and Malakittens so Malakittens trusting him is enough to bolster him to here regardless of Malakittens's alignment. He should always be town here and I

see

it.

furtiveglance

I initially had a tier below, but I decided after thinking about the people townreading furtive today's reasons, that I agreed with them. Was town D1 in an incredibly town way and I think is still worthy of the locktown tier today.

Ausuka

I had as below furtive but still at hard-town, yet I've decided to move Ausuka here after reviewing my reason for townreading Ausuka before, and I feel it still holds. Ausuka's play is incredibly anti-partner with Ircher in a way genuinely anti-partnery and with towntells that I believe are genuinely towntells. The whole exchange just looks town.

Klick

looks to be playing town, but not quite as strongly as others. It looks like what I'd expect from him as town, but I don't know what he looks like as scum. He's reasonable, he's making good posts, so his content is definitely town-sounding at the least, but I've no metric to guarantee it is the same way as I do my stronger reads.

Malakittens

would be locktown if not for a couple factors.
The first is that Malakittens was off the wagon, where I expect there to be 1-2 scum.
The second is that both the scum nightkills (confirmed to be Nero/peta per Vivax claiming the BBT vig) are the two players I would expect Mala to nightkill if she were scum. Nero wasn't widely townread, but Malakittens is one of the few players to know of Nero back in his glory days of when he was his most dangerous. Nero also knows Malakittens pretty well I'm pretty sure, so of all the players in the game, she has more incentive than almost any other to kill him.
Similarly so for petapan. I've never seen his towngame in full-swing before, but allegedly, it's pretty damn good from what I'm told. (I believe it, it's just that I've personally never seen it.) This means that basically anyone could/would kill him, but for some reason I seem to recall that peta/Malakittens have some sort of history too which if this memory is correct would make Mala want to kill him.

These factors keep Malakittens from being locktown, but she's still more likely town than not on her strength of play. It's purely NKA/VCA that implicates she

could

be scum and I trust my scumhunting-by-play tools more than I trust my NKA/VCA tools.

Titus

is at a similar level of divided read. Her play does

not

match her meta of being scum with Ircher. She protects her scumbuddies, and makes effort to make sure they don't fall. Her play with Ircher is highly indicative of that not being the case. All of this makes her highly likely to be town. But, a lot of her play feels like her scumgame and there are many things which feel "off" about her. So she's more divided, but also overall more town than not imo.

RCEnigma

has been null the entire game, but at this stage, 'null' with this many players with compelling reasons to be town is quite possibly indicative of scum.
He's not been strongly present in a way suggesting town. His content is highly forgettable. When he is town, I expect to remember his posts, and to have a lot of them be agreeable. But while he's making some reasonable reads, his posts overall feel lackluster. He's someone that it's easy to forget is in the game, which is a red flag indicative of possible scum.

fireisredsir

fits as the scum off the wagon, and by play radiates being scum. I feel Vivax caught a good scumslip from fire, and fire just gives off the vibe of being scum. There's plenty of small things that add up here.

Lukewarm

fits as the scum on the wagon, and by play radiates being scum. Though on D2 I'm sensing more stylistic similarities to Lukewarm's towngame, the D2 content is highly pro-scum in nature, looking to be scum that is in a tight spot and is trying to figure out a way to avoid a town sweep.

Roden

is scum ten times over in ten different ways. I'm never voting elsewhere, not even to vote another scumread. I'm not gonna lie, it ain't as strong as Ircher, but it's

pretty damn close

. If Ircher was 99% scum, then Roden is like 97%. I'll be honest tho, the main difference in that 2% is essentially, "I never catch two scum in a row. I always think I do, but I never

actually

do. I caught Ircher so I couldn't have genuinely caught a second, could I?"
Because by every other metric, yeah Roden should be as strong a scumread as Ircher. Genuinely the only reason Roden is weaker is that paranoia of me never normally being this competent.
But I'll go with the theory that I was a PROPHET when I said I'd be a SCUMHUNTING GOD, and that therefore I am indeed accurate here.

[Something_Smart]

not that we'd lose, but that it would cause a difficult situation if scum!mastina was a thing

like say d4 or d5 hits and we aren't seeing any of the stuff mastina has spoken about as being part of her role, what's your course of action? are you leading the charge on that? if you already think she's +scum, you're basically letting her go unpressured for multiple days. if she's a scum PR that becomes even worse

i'd suppose it's not a huge deal considering this is a large (outside of the multi-kill stuff) but i feel like from your perspective it's weird you wouldn't even really prod in that direction at all, outside of some shading here and there. is town!you really happy to just vibe with her possibly leading miselims (if you think she's scum)?

i'm just not really understanding the thought process

Well, I mean yes, it is worse for her to live to D4 if she's scum compared to dying today. I'm not really going to let her pushing someone move the needle-- I'm pretty fine with the Roden wagon, but not because she said so. But I feel like it's less of a hit to town to let scum-her live to D4 (even if she's a PR) than it is to kill town-her D2, and she is more likely to be town than scum, so it's a net negative expectation.

The only part of this query that I don't really understand is the "prod" bit. What kind of "prodding" do you think I ought to be doing, and why would it be helpful?

[Vivax]

Vivax [2]: Ydrasse, furtiveglance

VOTE: Ydrasse

I don't think anyone is either earnest, or town when keeping the vote on someone who is an almost guaranteed night kill
lazy omgus tm

Don't get the mastina scumreads at all
Or Roden for that matter, though I find some of his actions hard to understand

No idea what Uncrowned is pushing, but it's a performance drop-off compared to D1 alright

[Titus]

I looked at mastina's read on me and I can't blame her for my play feeling off. Partially I didn't want to obvtown, partially scum shade me when I am correct because they want credit for themselves, and partially IRL. This can contribute.

I would do a VCA as well tonight. That would allow me to respond to the readwall.

[Uncrowned]

and she is more likely to be town than scum, so it's a net negative expectation.

The only part of this query that I don't really understand is the "prod" bit. What kind of "prodding" do you think I ought to be doing, and why would it be helpful?

well, that kinda blows my whole point then

i said you seemed to think she was more likely to be scum, but you didn't refute that earlier? but if that's the case and you TL her, then what i'm saying is irrelevant

[PenguinPower]

oop - i borked my s_s vote

VOTE: s_s

there we go

everything is right with the world now

[Uncrowned]

Side note, there is almost no way what mastina is saying is correct. It's starting to lean more and more scum, though there is still a good chance town-mastina believes she broke the game.

Talk more about
1) your read on Mastina

I've seen mastina abuse/take control of mechanics as scum before. There is a very low chance she's actually broken the game, and if she's town what she's doing has significant downside and I'm dubious that Datisi would have put something in that gives her that much upside without the risk of being killed. (Since she presumably wouldn't announce this if scum could just kill her to stop whatever it is.) Plus, her read on me feels like TMI, since she clearly thinks she knows something about my role and I don't see how she can be that confident about it (even if she is right).

this isn't really reading like someone who is thinking mastina is more likely to be town than scum, my guy

[Uncrowned]

at best it's null, to me though it's looking like a scumlean so what's up?

[Titus]

VOTE: SS

Will consider a Roden vote upon review as that's a strong mastina read.

[Uncrowned]

The only part of this query that I don't really understand is the "prod" bit. What kind of "prodding" do you think I ought to be doing, and why would it be helpful?

is engaging with people you are unsure about not something you perceive as helpful? even if it doesn't give you an immediate answer, as an interaction to look to later?

i'd find it hard to believe you'd be willing to sit here for at a minimum, 4 in-game days subtly shading mastina without actually trying to figure out her alignment outside of "ah, i'll just wait till D5 or whatever and vote her then" if you're town

[Uncrowned]

VOTE: Something_Smart

[Vivax]

oop - i borked my s_s vote

VOTE: s_s

there we go

everything is right with the world now

Can you explain what this vote of yours is attempting to communicate?
I heavily oppose a SS lim

VOTE: something_smart

[Uncrowned]

all aboard

[Vivax]

Me desperately trying to find an avenue to do funny shitposts
Laughen VERBOTEN

[PenguinPower]

oop - i borked my s_s vote

VOTE: s_s

there we go

everything is right with the world now

Can you explain what this vote of yours is attempting to communicate?
I heavily oppose a SS lim

VOTE: something_smart

[Uncrowned]

yeah so basically what I think vivax is trying to do is

[Something_Smart]

well, that kinda blows my whole point then

i said you seemed to think she was more likely to be scum, but you didn't refute that earlier? but if that's the case and you TL her, then what i'm saying is irrelevant

Hmm, yeah, the eternal confusion between absolute likelihood and relative likelihood.

If we assume 3 scum left, any random player has a baseline 19% chance to be scum. If I think mastina has a, say, 35% chance to be scum, that's significantly above baseline, but she still has a 65% chance to be town.

[Vivax]

I just want to murder anyone who starts posting about numbers and percentages again