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Post Post #2750 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 1:34 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 2302, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 2297, Dannflor wrote:I would imagine Ausuka is a vig shot
I think she was viably in the miselimination pool and unless scum saw something they thought was a crumb or something I doubt they take that shot
i mean i thought she was scum for what i thought was heavily softing a PR and then later walking it back so it's def possible scum saw the same thing i did
i did figure out eventually that i was misinterpreting but it did really look that way at first to me
Nevermind, I gotta ask:
Why did fire not use his role on Ausuka to verify this?


Maybe because the scum used a second kill as an investigative tool???

Also,
WHY DOES FIRE THINK THE AUSUKA KILL IS A SCUM KILL HERE?

Most of the town it seems at that point was like "Vivax vigged there" from what I saw.
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Post Post #2751 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 1:35 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 2749, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 2746, Dannflor wrote:
In post 2742, Andresvmb wrote:Alternatively, they’re executing VTs so that they can have the average be lower than 75% and get an additional NK. Actually, that’s probably why.
how would they know Lukewarm was a VT
Probably an educated guess?
To be fair, the VT/PR divide in this game is quite obvious. There's players I won't believe if they claim PRs; there's players I won't believe if they claim VTs; the scum would have to be utter morons to not be able to tell which are which.
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Post Post #2752 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 1:45 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 2750, mastina wrote:
In post 2302, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 2297, Dannflor wrote:I would imagine Ausuka is a vig shot
I think she was viably in the miselimination pool and unless scum saw something they thought was a crumb or something I doubt they take that shot
i mean i thought she was scum for what i thought was heavily softing a PR and then later walking it back so it's def possible scum saw the same thing i did
i did figure out eventually that i was misinterpreting but it did really look that way at first to me
Nevermind, I gotta ask:
Why did fire not use his role on Ausuka to verify this?


Maybe because the scum used a second kill as an investigative tool???

Also,
WHY DOES FIRE THINK THE AUSUKA KILL IS A SCUM KILL HERE?

Most of the town it seems at that point was like "Vivax vigged there" from what I saw.
i didn't check ausuka bc as i said in that quote, i figured out in the course of conversation with ausuka that i was misinterpreting and that she never intended to pr soft. so my initial instinct was irrelevant

i was responding directly to dann who mentioned the possibility of scum seeing a crumb. i was saying that if they had seen what i saw, maybe they thought she was a PR
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Post Post #2753 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 1:51 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 2748, mastina wrote:What were the hinted-at reasons here? Those hint at a result on Roden, not a result on me.
How would a result on me having visited nobody indicated that Roden's claim was weird but coming from town?
There's no correlation here at all.
This doesn't read like someone with a result on me; this reads as someone with a result on Roden.
the reasons i was hinting at were not role related. i don't remember the exact context but i think it was that i didn't really have the energy to argue with you about why it seemed like you were making wrong assumptions about what roles made sense, and that it didn't seem worth it when roden might just be scum on play anyway

i didn't have any intent or interest in crumbing and im not sure why you would expect me to. crumbing results seemed to me like it would be more likely to hurt than help, esp if i die and then results become obvious
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Post Post #2754 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 1:57 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 2460, Ydrasse wrote:wat going on between fire and mastina
(Reading fire's posts in the area I'm more sure than ever that fire is scum there btw.)

Btw reading is less productive than I thought but I feel vaguely that Something_Smart's approach is still weakly town here.
jjh I retain the town read of his perspective.
(Also continues to not be a town perspective. also doesn't track given fire laid out the exact thought process for why he SHOULD have checked
Ausuka
.)

Around makes me more comfortable with S_S still being town here.

So, update of where I'm at:

TOWN NO MATTER WHAT:

{Ydrasse, Uncrowned} I don't think Ydrasse needs explaining here, and I'm willing to bet Uncrowned is town here, too.
TOWN PRETTY MUCH REGARDLESS:

{jjh927, PenguinPower, Something_Smart, Andresvmb} PenguinPower's response was town and PP has been town the entire game. jjh isn't quite as surefire, but he's still pretty much out of contention imo. Something_Smart joins the club. Andresvmb is pretty much there, too.

WHAT'S LEFT:
Malakittens
(decent chance of being scum)
furtiveglance
(current best candidate for being scum)
{Dannflor, Klick} (has a maximum of 1 scum between them, could both be town but both have individual sus things--I'll say that Dannflor vaguely looks town but I wanna iso dive Dann/Klick next to check.)
fireisredsir
(almost certainly is the fourth scum but again, third scum
needs
to be eliminated first)
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Post Post #2755 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:14 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1965, Dannflor wrote:
In post 221, Titus wrote:I think at least one of Ircher/SS if not both are scum. The timing of this slip argument right as SS gets pushed for reads is a bit sus when that argument was there all along.
I guess it kinda bothers me if you have something you feel strong about in S_S because I sort of doubt Titus and S_S are scum together?
which means I think one of us is wrong
Maybe it's too much of a jump to just assume that Titus would never make this post so early about two of her buddies but it just seems so brazen if so
Oh for what it's worth I agree with Dann here about Titus not being scum with Something_Smart. Given Dannflor pushed Titus from the getgo, I'm fairly comfortable calling him town here.

RCE's iso is a little concerned tbh, but I'm comfortable for now at least--there's better candidates.

Reading Klick's iso, I don't think he's actually scum here. The mechanics talk here doesn't feel TMI or defense of Ircher, and imo, this is incredibly indicative of Klick not being scum with Ircher:
In post 643, Klick wrote:We should either hammer Ircher or move on imo
I'm interested in pursuing an RCEnigma vote but I don't want to dampen the Ircher wagon for something that might not happen
Klick if he were scum could just have hopped off, but the framing of this is what I think is town. "Either hammer him or move on" is not a mindset I see an Ircher scumbuddy having there.

furthers it. The nuanced approach there just doesn't feel like a scum perspective to have on the game at all. furthers it.

Basically every Klick post mentioning Ircher screams not-scumbuddy with him. But not forced. Not intended to look like it was. Not intended to look antiscum. It just is natural, fluid, and happens.
In post 1203, Klick wrote:
In post 1014, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 318, Titus wrote:I don't give a rat's ass about 5 scum or 4 scum.

What I do care about is Ircher freezing. Ircher's last log in was today this morning after he was first asked about the question regarding his assumptions. While it may not be a slip, the freezing doesn't look good.
Idk if Titus is gonna rat out her scumbuddy like this
This is like the one post that has made me consider Titus!scum lol
This is a huge thing in making me think Klick is town here too.

But also, I wanna bring up 1014, probs best to do in a different post.

furtive gives away that he's scum with Titus there, and via that, that he and fireisredsir are the scumteam.

There's an outside
chance
that Mala could be scum, but Mala just doesn't fit. Mala is the only player who has no associations with Ircher/Titus that are antiscum, but she also lacks interactions with Ircher/Titus that indicate her being scum. Not really. Not compared to fire/furtive.
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Post Post #2756 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:29 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 2215, Titus wrote:Image
Hi. This is me.
Good luck scum.
Just as an in-hindsight thing, I read this post and was trying to figure out what the 'crumb was.
Sejuani's a cavalier guild champion, but neither trait was in TFT UPick.

In hindsight the 'good luck scum' was probably
actually talking to her scumbuddies
.

Oops. :facepalm:

(What this means tho is that at this stage, Titus knew she was going down. If "good luck scum" means Titus thought she was dead, then at that stage, she was aware she needed to set them up.)

Titus's iso doesn't really give me any hard-clears but does loosely support my fire/furtive guess here.
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Post Post #2757 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:33 pm

Post by mastina »

FINAL UPDATE:
TOWN NO MATTER WHAT:

{Ydrasse, Uncrowned} I don't think Ydrasse needs explaining here, and I'm willing to bet Uncrowned is town here, too.
TOWN PRETTY MUCH REGARDLESS:

{jjh927, PenguinPower, Something_Smart, Andresvmb} PenguinPower's response was town and PP has been town the entire game. jjh isn't quite as surefire, but he's still pretty much out of contention imo. Something_Smart joins the club. Andresvmb is pretty much there, too.

UNLIKELY SCUM:
{Dannflor, Klick}

WHAT'S LEFT:
Malakittens
(decent chance of being scum)
furtiveglance
(current best candidate for being scum)
fireisredsir
(almost certainly is the fourth scum)

To be honest at this stage I'm down to vote either furtive OR fire at this stage.
furtive flipping rolestopper would damn fire as the fourth, but even if furtive is, say, a mafia roleblocker, then I still think just from interactions + poe + play that fire is scum anyway.

It'd certainly have been more clear-cut if my cop result went through, but I think I targeted scum and baited out a panicked TMI scum perspective anyway.
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Post Post #2758 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:40 pm

Post by mastina »

(Btw I do owe an apology to Roden--I admit that a large part of my push on him was, quite simply: greed. I wanted to use my role on fire. I wanted the day to end quickly. I wanted either double validation in reads or a double hard-reset in them, with either both being scum or neither being scum. But I was perfectly okay with getting one town one scum, too. Basically I figured it was win-win no matter what:
If Roden flipped town and I got an innocent on fire, it'd provide me with a hard-reset on my perspective on the game, as none of my scumteams/assumptions/etc. could be possible with BOTH of them as town.

If Roden flipped scum and I got a guilty on fire, that'd basically be a game over for the scum, bringing them down to 1 scum left alive on D4.

If Roden flipped scum and I got an innocent on fire, it'd narrow the pool for Roden's scumbuddies down significantly.

If Roden flipped town and I got a guilty on fire, it'd provide a better frame for who the final two scum were thanks to the Roden wagon and fire not being expected to die.

No matter what, I figured it couldn't go wrong. But to pull it off, I needed Roden to die. I imagine Roden is quite upset at this, and for that I AM sorry, Roden. I know between defending Titus who flipped scum and attacking you when you were town it was infuriating for you, but I
did
have a good reason for it and if the push on you wins us the game via me having solved it by catching furtive + fire from the way the days played out, I hope you'd agree that'd be worth it for the town. One town sacrifice to clutch a town win.)
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Post Post #2759 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:45 pm

Post by mastina »

Also if I'm right about it being furtive + fire, let this be a lesson that leaving a competent wrong-town player alive after they have been shown to be wrong town yet made obvtown from their wrongtown status, that via them still being a competent player, and via them being obvtown, competency + obvtownness + reads shown to be wrong = reevaluate into more accurate, and deadly, reads.

If they rolecopped me N1 then they should've known that the better option was to kill me N2. :P

(Tbh this is one reason that I actually don't think they did. No, really. I was right about Ircher being scum on D1, and I had a cop shot to use N2. That's a scary combo for the scum. A roleblock wasn't going to keep me down. I legit think it's just more likely that they have a rolestopper in furtive or fire is ascetic. But if I am right, I guess we'll find out. Still was a misplay if it is a roleblock they used on me N2. Because I don't need a result in order to get mileage from investigating fire, I just need to LIVE in order to get mileage from investigating fire.)
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Post Post #2760 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:57 pm

Post by Dannflor »

Yeah okay VOTE: furtive
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Post Post #2761 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:49 pm

Post by Klick »

In post 2632, Klick wrote:
In post 2548, mastina wrote:Why would the scum roleblock me?
Picture this: Mafia Rolecop targeted you N1, so they blocked you N2.

Thoughts?
I think this is just accurate

I want to do some thinking about fire's claim though
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Post Post #2762 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:52 pm

Post by Klick »

I would like to claim now that my role is confirmable but thus far I have used it to target Ausuka on N2 and Lukewarm N3 and this is incredibly frustrating to me
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Post Post #2763 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:53 pm

Post by Klick »

This was me reacting to Ausuka dying
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Post Post #2764 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:57 pm

Post by Klick »

furtiveglance
PenguinPower
Ydrasse
mastina
fireisredsir
Malakittens
Andresvmb
Uncrowned


jjh927
Dannflor
Something_Smart
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Post Post #2765 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:58 pm

Post by Klick »

I really don't see why jjh is town mastina I kind of assumed that read was because you saw town utility in jjh still being alive because you think he's strong
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Post Post #2766 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 7:35 pm

Post by furtiveglance »

I'm alive
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Post Post #2767 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 7:37 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 2762, Klick wrote:I would like to claim now that my role is confirmable but thus far I have used it to target Ausuka on N2 and Lukewarm N3 and this is incredibly frustrating to me
Should have used it on me.
Shame on a martyr claiming friends
From either perspective of &
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Post Post #2768 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 7:39 pm

Post by furtiveglance »

Mastina, I think you're town, so I'll engage with the one point you made against me (not voting Roden or Titus). The reason I did that, is that I didn't scumread either of them on D2.
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Post Post #2769 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 7:42 pm

Post by furtiveglance »

I think Klick is town, claim sounds quite boring.
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Post Post #2770 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 7:44 pm

Post by furtiveglance »

I feel like Klick has the correct poe but is wrongly towning Malalittens
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Post Post #2771 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:24 pm

Post by Klick »

In post 2770, furtiveglance wrote:Malalittens
Someone edit the cat in Mala's avatar to be wearing shades pls
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Post Post #2772 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:48 pm

Post by furtiveglance »

In post 2751, mastina wrote:
In post 2749, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 2746, Dannflor wrote:
In post 2742, Andresvmb wrote:Alternatively, they’re executing VTs so that they can have the average be lower than 75% and get an additional NK. Actually, that’s probably why.
how would they know Lukewarm was a VT
Probably an educated guess?
To be fair, the VT/PR divide in this game is quite obvious. There's players I won't believe if they claim PRs; there's players I won't believe if they claim VTs; the scum would have to be utter morons to not be able to tell which are which.
Dannflor saying that he thought mastina was wrong town being sheeped by mafia, then sheeping mastina almost instantly...
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Post Post #2773 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:49 pm

Post by furtiveglance »

Didn't mean to quote that, not sure what happened there
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Post Post #2774 (ISO) » Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:52 pm

Post by furtiveglance »

In post 1999, Dannflor wrote:Mastina I have this sinking gut feeling that you are town and that scum is currently playing around you specifically and pocketing you

I would love a good faith effort to sort me but that feels like not the direction you’re headed in
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