Warrior Cats Mafia [Day Three]

[fireisredsir]

i like catboi's posting on this page quite a bit more than previous stuff which is a nice surprise. not enough to lean town yet but im less worried there i think

kitty doesn't feel scummy in quite the same way that he felt scummy when i played with him when he was scum but he still feels kinda scummy so sure

VOTE: kittytacky

I should apparently write more half-assed ramblings at 2 AM, then

it was more the stuff before that

but also probably yes

[mastina]

All your scumreads are like… people i think are town.

Of course you do, you need to say that to not have the scum be eliminated!

[mastina]

i think that might be a good approach for us in general for game starts.

I mean, you're Ceph.

You're always scum. Even when you're not.

(By which I mean you rand scum a disproportionate amount of times and even when you rand town, you still look like scum, this game included. Your style is just naturally one which I scumread.)

I, very weakly, have a townread on you in spite of that, but it genuinely is only like 1% and like...pure gut. I don't have any explanation for it, I'm trying. I just legit don't know.

I’m starting to wonder if it’s possible to develop a read on penguin early.

Yup!
Sure is!

Now, whether the read is

accurate

, on the other hand......


Loosely tho, I lean town--which is a safe bet since statistically speaking, more town than scum. So when in doubt, town.

[Something_Smart]

Has Shiro done anything in the PT?

[mastina]

@Mastina: are you a mason?

Obviously.

[Alisae]

Has Shiro done anything in the PT?

no they are a ghost.

[catboi]

I don’t have a scum PT to share this with my
Pals, but fire says he thinks marashu and catboi are scum buddies.
You heard it here second.

This is kind of funny to read right after he says he likes my posting after I decide I found a better vote than Marashu

So my wagon looks like this:
Frozen Angel, Something_Smart, Titus, Mistyx, Datisi, Kitty, Norweigan.

FA is obvtown imo;
SS didn't show as much passion as FA, but is always keeping an open mind for other things which is a town mindset.
I don't understand Titus vote on me. It feels more like an OMGUS rather than a scumread. The setup itself makes her really unlikely to be scum.
Kitty's vote seems too opportunistic, just hopped on the biggest wagon quoting a random post and affirming that i'm scum.


Mistyx, Datisi, Norweigan; What is even your goal with my wagon? Do you want me to explain my thought process for yesterday? Claim all my role details?
Explain my theory in detail? Do you want to get me to L-1 and act shocked when someone hammers?

I do think this is an okay post from Charloux that has kind of a believable solving mindset and the response to pressure feels towny. I am okay with the assessment that he seems to be getting run up for being weird rather than actually taking actions that make sense as scum. If anything him now knowing what he's talking about is more likely be town indicative, I get the sense there's a potential language barrier thing going on

Anyway it's nearly 3 AM so I think I'm gonna stop here for the night and finish reading everything else tomorrow morning

[mastina]

where did this suddenly come from. also titus can be scum or town regardless of that hypothesis so its kinda weird to tie those things together

there are 5 scum and 4 neighborhoods so in order to maintain a belief in exactly 1 scum in every hood you must conclude that titus is scum.
i do not think anyone should be assuming 1 scum in each hood. it is probably random.

For the record I realize it is stupid to townread this since objectively speaking this should be a nai post that Ceph would make as either alignment, but.

I am still townreading it??? I don't know why, but like. Gut says it's town in spite of objectively having no reason to be.

[mastina]

VOTE: val

Datisi's never scum here btw.

The vote's wrong since it's on town.

But Datisi is confscum for this series of posting and the vote.

[mastina]

Oh. I’m fine killing norwe if mastina is 97.5% certain they’re scum.
VOTE: Norwe

I am!

It's not 100% because I

can

be wrong on Norwee, but I just

really

don't think I AM.

their explanation of it afterwards made more sense to me tho

eir reaction was covering eir ass up.

After you make an impulsive post as scum that you know was a mistake, you need to work on making it appear to not have been one. So any competent scum player (and Alisae is competent) is going to create a narrative where their scum post is made to not be a scum post.

That doesn't stop it from having been a scum post.

Alisae saw the push, impulsively decided the best course of action to deal with Val was to push back and use eir experience to win the 1v1, and later created the justification for it.

Me and Alisae teamed is some real level 0 thinking Mastina. You’re better than that.

???
There's literally nothing in your play that is "basic" enough to suggest an Alisae-Norwee team. Literally all of your play is designed to appear to not be scumbuddies. That's the opposite of level-0; that's you going out of your way to avoid appearing to be level 0, which is ironically more damning than if you actually

were

displaying level-0 scumplay.

If you and Alisae actually pulled level-0 scumplay it would ironically be a 1000-iq scumplay as too-competent-to-do-this-therefore-they-didn't (except you did).
But you actively went out of your way to

avoid

the level-0 scumplay which ironically makes it more damning than if you just did it, because the avoidance of level 0 scumplay is more indicative of being scumbuddies than actually displaying level 0 scumplay would be.

[fireisredsir]

This is kind of funny to read right after he says he likes my posting after I decide I found a better vote than Marashu

it was a half joking theory but unironically i think if you had decided you wanted to bus marashu (i did think your trajectory into him was kinda weird) then you wouldnt be super likely to just go somewhere else in the way you did, felt more like towny exploring new options than scummy agendaposting

so yea it did kinda factor in actually

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: val

Datisi's never scum here btw.

The vote's wrong since it's on town.

But Datisi is confscum for this series of posting and the vote.

confscum or conftown and why

[mastina]

but his play here seems more or less like NQN2, where I tried to push him when I was scum.

I was in NQN2, and this is not the Norwee from that game. It's not even remotely close. I don't know what kind of catnip you're imbibing to think that this is even remotely close to the Norwee from that game. It's literally night/day different between the two.

[mastina]

mildly unfortunate that i started thinking mastina makes a surprising amount of sense this game and then she started not-really-townreading me which makes this take seem ally-motivated

Tbh the most scum aspect of your 619 id you seeing your post as being perceived as pocketing me,
rather than you thinking that I am pocketing you.
(Basically, you having the thought that you liking me is scum-indicative for you, rather than thinking it is scum-indicative for me.)

But ironically, it is the very fact that it is not the expected town-oriented thought,
Which makes me think you're actually town here?

I think my townread on you has increased to like...55% at this point or so.

It's just a vibe. I dunno why, but you just ~

feel

~ town to me for some reason.

[Cephrir]

that's more words than you probably needed to dedicate to a change of 4% but what im learning from this is to play worse for townreads uwu

[Bell]

Oh. I’m fine killing norwe if mastina is 97.5% certain they’re scum.
VOTE: Norwe

why does this feel sarcastic im confused

Either outcome is funny. *signed up*

Every game lately is like this. I try play in a way that makes me have fun and also can solve at the same time. But i always end up feeling annoyed. I didn’t even really want to sign up to this in the first place. But now i’m here and just as expected i’m first wagon. All i can do is grit my teeth and bear it. I don’t even know why i manage to continue despite feeling miserable. It’s some kind of strange stubborness that never let’s up.

Are you town or scum.

[mastina]

I think there's a world of difference between the scenario from datisi's cafe that you're talking about and this game. In that game fire's reaction was to a

faked guilty

which carries a significant degree of weight to it - people are very likely to vote you for it and you can't really ignore it. Scum panicking and overreacting in that scenario is very understandable. By comparison a singular vote on Day 1 carries not much weight at all - it wasn't like val's case was particularly likely to get alisae killed on its own so I don't believe they would overreact in such a panicky way as scum. I

would

buy it if this was being done by a more raw [...] player who would be more likely to feel threatened by minor suspicion.

That's the thing about Alisae tho. Of all the players on-site, I would call Alisae one of THE most (if not THE most) "raw" player. Probably different definition of 'raw' than what you meant, but the description of raw is VERY apt for Alisae as a player.

Alisae's playstyle is very, very raw.
Alisae's personality is very, very raw.
Alisae is incredibly raw as a person. Eir very core essence is attuned to that word, pretty much. Raw, pure, just...kinda sorta primal, I guess?

It's a style that has a lot of emotions and snap-judgements to it, making a lot of decisions on the fly. That's not to say scum-Alisae doesn't plan; e does. It's just that scum-Alisae also adapts plans on the fly, and can discard weeks' worth of planning on an impulse of thinking there is a better plan, or thinking there is a need to pivot. Alisae has been the type of player to surrender in a game that was very winnable, just because on a whim e didn't think it was winnable.

Alisae is thus, a player I fully expect to overreact as scum. Alisae has a tendency to be a doomsayer as scum, thinking the worse. So if Alisae saw a correct solve from Val with Val sharing the reasons for why...Alisae is exactly the kind of player who

would

panic and overreact. Especially since Alisae is fresh back from a year-long hiatus. Alisae hasn't had the time to regain eir composure as either alignment. How do you think a fresh-off-year-long-retirement Alisae reacts to eir gambit with Norwee falling apart within 24 hours of the first day starting?

Someone who has had a year-long hiatus from games on this site, entering the game with a scum plan, and seeing a town player immediately demolish that scum plan and nail them for it?

That's

exactly

the type of scenario to elicit an overreaction from Alisae.

Alisae is an experienced scum player, but Alisae is incredibly emotional, impulsive, and importantly: rusty. Alisae is unfamiliar with meta changes, unfamiliar with player changes, and wouldn't know what would/wouldn't work as scum. E would rely on eir past experience, but wouldn't know if that past experience would actually work, having to hope that it was timeless and never growing obsolete.
And then, with those old tactics revealed spectacularly by Val--Alisae as the incredibly emotional impulsive player e is would react to that. Alisae hasn't had the time to adjust back to scumplay on this site, so Alisae seeing emselves

immediately

pegged would, in fact: elicit a panicked response. Because they would instantly think they need to go into damage control mode and hard-force. Alisae when cornered as scum does exactly that: suddenly push HARD against their accuser, in order to hope that they can get the lim there, and after the fact, dissipate the pressure at a later time.

[mastina]

VOTE: val

Datisi's never scum here btw.

The vote's wrong since it's on town.

But Datisi is conftown for this series of posting and the vote.

confscum or conftown and why

Conftown. Datisi's a major wagon, but Datisi has no interest in appeasing the players voting him, or being survivalistic, or really trying to actually fight--instead, he's sorting and pushing for who he thinks is scum.

The Val vote has basically no momentum, but the Datisi wagon does--a Val vote does Datisi no favors.

[fireisredsir]

you would have miscleared datisi in like every scum game he's played recently then, thats p shallow reasoning

[mastina]

LOCKTOWN:
{catboi, Datisi, Dannflor, Bell, fireisredsir, Frozen Angel*}
{Charloux, Marashu, Mixtyx, Val89}
(second tier still locktown, just not same certainty--all of them I

almost

put in the above tier, so the separation between them is

very

small and nearly nonexistent.)

TOWN:
{SCRRRDBEAR, Cephrir}
{PenguinPower}

???:
{Shiro, Shiidaji}

{KittyTacky}


SCUM?
{Titus}

PROBABLY SCUM:
{Something_Smart}
{Alisae}

SCUM:
{NorwegianboyEE}


{Norwee, Alisae, Something_Smart} feels like a solid 3/5.

But I admit,
{Norwee, Alisae, Something_Smart, Titus, KittyTacky} (default team of five) feels a bit too easy to be the right solve.
I think it's a good enough starting point for D1 tho.

I don't see the top tier of locktown ever flipping scum here, ever, at this point. (Unless I got FA meta backwards. I don't think I did tho.)
Second tier of locktown I feel very very strongly about being town. I don't see them flipping scum, either.

So like.

That leaves ten slots for five scum.
Genuinely, a 50% shot at hitting scum on D1.

And three of those ten I think are town.

Which brings it down to 5/7.

Even without the reasons for them being scum, the reasons for others to be town just being that much higher means the PoE is outright

lethal

here.

[mastina]

you would have miscleared datisi in like every scum game he's played recently then, thats p shallow reasoning

My explanation might be flawed to make it seem that way but it very much is not. Datisi is town for two dozen reasons. Everything he is doing is town. It just is never scum here.

[mastina]

{Norwee, Alisae, Something_Smart} feels like a solid 3/5..

Btw I hold to this being a true scumbloc no matter what to be honest.

I don't have nearly the same level of certainty about elsewhere.

But I individually think this is Norwee's scumgame;
I individually think this is Alisae's scumgame;
I think that Norwee and Alisae are very specifically scum together;
Something_Smart isn't directly tied to them per se but I individually do think he's scum (sadly) and that his stances fit as scum with Norwee and Alisae.

I also scumread Titus but I'm honestly not sure if she fits as scum with them, it might be possible? But something about saying {Alisae, Norwee, Something_Smart, Titus} as 4/5 feels too easy, feels too surface-level, feels too shallow to be real. I don't have any better ideas, mind you, but better ideas can come from future day phases as we progress.

[Datisi]

Like, do you think you're out of scum range right now? Because so far I think you're in the middle of both your ranges.

no, no i don't think so. though, out of curiosity - if i had answered "yes, i do think i'm outside my scumrange here", then what would you do?

ftr, my poke towards you wasn't meant as a "catboi *should* have a read on me by now," it was a "i hoped he'd have a read on me by now, as that will potentially help me read him."

anyway, i like the reasoning for kittytacky being scum. upon my skim, i skipped that post because big post, but when i got back to it... it really did not say anything, huh. and the fact that he took the time to photoshop my avatar onto a clam (and photoshop it kind of *well*, considering the white pixels are barely visible), rather than, you know, do things in the game... yeah. it kind of reminds me of that one thing i did in smuggler's, where i also tried to be funny by posting an image instead of like, y'know, doing things. also, screw you for making me remember that game.

VOTE: kittytacky

after i eat, will get to isoing people to try to make sense of my weaker reads, and actually give reason for my stronger ones. interested in why mastina's so certain she's not misreading me here (despite fire specifically saying her reasoning is flawed - which i do agree with).

[Val89]

"actually i've cooled down and i'm no longer that sure of it... but i'm anyway gonna spend the next 9 days trying to convince everyone to kill alisae" is ???

I'm going to assume this was a misunderstanding rather than a deliberate rephrasing, but it was an 'and', not a 'but'. My point was that I still think Alisea is sus, but not the lockscum my attentions were best directed towards pushing to have eliminated for the rest of this dayphase, which is how I felt if you had asked me 12 hours prior.

If we were already at deadline, and I was directing the lim, I would still have picked Alisea as the best chance of hitting scum, but I was thinking my vote would be better served, particularly this early, on an actual wagon rather than a vanity one, and I was evaluating the ones that were forming at the time of the post - I didn't like Charloux because I had been persuaded to treat them as town for now, Marashu I didn't understand and was waiting for clarification, and I had started looking in more detail at Datisi, but real life interceded.

Those were my feelings at the time - I see there has been quite the activity in the meantime, including a theory about a Norwee-Alisae scum pairing, something I had expressly ruled out - so I'll need to go and look if that is still how I feel after looking at it more deeply.

[Datisi]

in my defense, i read "but I am no longer of the opinion that it's as clear cut as I was feeling last night, and its simple a matter of spending the next 9 days trying to convince everyone else of that" should probably lose that comma there then >_>

what made you re-evaluate, then? the whole 444 still feels to be talking negatively about ali