Warrior Cats Mafia [Day Three]

[Bell]

MINE

[Alisae]

[fireisredsir]

I'm not that appeased to vote mastina. what I see from mastina in this game is she putting thought behind what she is writing and actually making logical infenerces, even if its filled with lots of other stuff and emotions.I actually got the impression that she is evaluating stuff and not just throwing totally random stuff out there. mastina pushing for linked reads on ali and norwee after her initial read list material was a bit pushy over shallow reasoning but yet I see that genuine in a weird way as she got it based on something that was actually thrown in game yet I believe a scum mastina would throw completely random reads in and call them out on meta or random crap to look like she is doing the work in chaos (that's at least my impression of her playstyle and not necessarily truth)

idk i did go read mastina's most recent scum game and i don't think this is really accurate, she's not like incapable of progression as scum. but i think there she was a lot less willing to go into detail on reasoning or respond to new posts and stuff. and i think the level to which she's doing that here is closer to that than it is to her play in datisi's cafe as town

[Something_Smart]

that are pretty bold joking and is a thing town would be way less comfortable saying in general. and the questions that have 0 value in evaluation

Second question seems like it could potentially yield merit, presumably he was looking for "what indicates that you aren't scum", not "what caused you to not be scum".

Regardless, I don't get why town would be less comfortable making these? Isn't it usually a cliche that town is comfortable saying whatever where scum are a lot more nervous and careful?

[Something_Smart]

Is royal we an English term for me?

Yes, that's a relatively well-known joke, in my understanding. But I can understand being confused if you aren't familiar with it.

[Something_Smart]

if she is truely a mason then there is someone else with a clear on her. and if she isn't then there are no other slot to confirm their story or their buddy has to claim mason to confirm her story which means we will get 2 scum instead of one if she flips red cause of it.

so I expect the masonry to fully out before we eliminate her or for her to claim her actual role if she is threatened to go this day phase

She isn't claiming literal mason. She clarified in the hood that the comment refers to how she got immediate and strong townreads on 3/4 of her hoodmates based on hood posts.

[KittyTacky]

why is it scummy?

Because T3 doesn't seem to be faking imo and just seems to be genuinely struggling with catching up.

[KittyTacky]

Yes they are a null read but the wagon is still strange because I don't see a good reason for it.

[Something_Smart]

Mastina has already claimed in the hood btw.

[KittyTacky]

Might as well disclose it since scum likely know by now.
Titus joined Wind Clan and I asked in wind clan if we could potentially flashwagon T3 since I townread everyone else in hood. This makes sense since we were talking about if there was scum in the hood and I thought if there was scum in our hood its probs just T3.
Norwee agreed with the idea so I went with it. I obvs couldn't get to check in with Val or Shiro about it since time was kind off of the essence. It was an idea worth trying because maybe if we did say eliminate T3 and flip him before he could tell scum that Titus joined Wind Clan, that would be a huge edge to have over scum. This is assuming he does flip scum ofc.

Ah. Well I think you're scum, this wagon is scum-motivated, and so T3 is more likely town unless it's a bus. :shrug:

[KittyTacky]

VOTE: Kitty
Norwee abandon ship

Opportunism. Scum.

Why do you think that Alisae’s vote on you was opportunism, but Dannflor’s vote wasn’t? He abandoned the mastina wagon to vote you for seemingly no reason.

Both were tbh but Alisae was even more so, just jumped on immediately after. Dann is towny imo, he just hasn't played with me as town before.

[KittyTacky]

Especially because Dannflor expressed significant doubt about the wagon on you multiple times before voting you, and you even quoted a post from Dannflor in the same post that you called Alisae opportunist, so you clearly saw Dannflor’s vote and doubt about the wagon on you.

If anything, Dannflor was more opportunist than Alisae. Alisae strongly scumread you and got into a conflict with you, expressing very little doubt as to your alignment. So, Alisae’s vote on you can be explained as town voting a scumread because there are more votes on the scumread, but Dannflor’s vote can be explained as inconsistent scum voting a limbait.

It was more that they switched right then and there once the wagon started building up again with Dann's vote in spite of shading me for a while before. Dann is townie for their other interactions in spite of the iffy vote tho.

[Bell]

Mastina has already claimed in the hood btw.

What is their claim?

[KittyTacky]

I'm just... not sure about mastina anymore. Her Norwe case really vibed with me but her recent posts pinged a little scummy.

[KittyTacky]

Anyways, since this day is kinda winding down, I wanna reignite me.

Ask me anything! Literally anything! Preferably related to the game.

[KittyTacky]

*reignite it

[Something_Smart]

What is their claim?

Probably shouldn't out that without consulting at least one of my hoodmates. But you don't have to worry that mastina is stalling out her claim to get more info or something. (I mean, she may still be stalling out, but for other reasons.)

[mastina]

Spoiler: past version

{catboi, Datisi, Dannflor, Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Frozen Angel*}
{Charloux, Mixtyx}
(second tier still locktown, just not same certainty--all of them I almost put in the above tier, so the separation between them is very small and nearly nonexistent.)

TOWN:
{SCRRRDBEAR, Cephrir}

{PenguinPower}

TOWN?:
{Shiro, Shiidaji}

???
{KittyTacky}
{Titus}


PROBABLY SCUM:
{Something_Smart}

SCUM:
{Alisae}
{NorwegianboyEE}.

I'm gonna do this a bit differently, instead of town to scum doing strength.

Dann/Datisi/catboi are genuinely never scum here. Ever.
When I say that, I am not exaggerating. I have played it out in my head countless times. I've looked for literally any sign whatsoever.
I've scrutinized every interaction that I've seen from them, and genuinely.
There is zero doubt. No paranoia. None. Not a drop.

I know that I usually exaggerate. I know that I usually am hyperbolic. That when I day a read is 100%, it's not REALLY 100^, I'm just leaving out the small voices of doubt behind the read.

When I say they are 100% town, I mean 100% TOWN. I genuinely don't see the scum. It’s not there. I'm looking for it. But no matter how I slice it. They're just...town.

Next, Alisae and Norwee are both scum.
I genuinely don't see them as town. I've looked. It’s not there. I can't find the townness. All I can see is the scum.
However, I admit it's possible that I just can't see the town in them. I am telling you that they are 100% scum, genuinely no paranoia.

Below that is FA. Removing the shroud of 100%, the actual number is more like 90%, and removing the same shroud, the this-is-town is closer to 85%. I still need to do the research, since it's fully possible she can legit be 100% in her town meta with me 100% certain. But I need to do the research there.

Bell, Marashu, Mistyx are the next step down. Estimate of 75%. They have very very very strong, compelling reasons to be town, it's just that unlike the holy Trinity, I DO have paranoia. I was hiding it before, but it's there. It exists, and is the remaining 25%. Where my reasons could be wrong and the scummier aspects that briefly pinged were right.
But if this were a readslist, I'd still list them as locktown.

Fire might be up with them, but I forget the reason why. I know that part of it is "fire isn’t acting like Cafe him, therefore town", but I had reasons for townlocking him beyond that. If I remember them, will get back to you on him.

Charloux I have no clue where to place tbh.

The next definitive placements are Something Smart and Cephrir. I had one as SLIGHTLY higher than the other while writing this mentally, but I can't remember which was higher right now because they're that close in comparative strength, at about 60% for SS scum, Ceph town.
(Note for percentages: 50% isn’t null, null is 0%. So 60% isn’t "just 10% higher than default", it's 60% higher than default.)

The rest, don't honestly know percentage wise.
Bear, Charlpux, Shiro, and Shiidaji I all loosely think are town, but fucked if I know by how much.


The tl;Dr takeaway tho:
Datisi, catboi, Dannflor all ALWAYS town; NEVER eliminate them.
Genuinely locktown.

Bell, Marashu, Mistyx, probs-FA are all town; NEVER consider eliminating them prior to lylo, and even then think very very hard before doing so, because they're probably town.

Norwee and Alisae ARE scum.
You might not believe it now, but they ARE going to flip scum because they're NOT town.

SS probscum, Ceph probtown, but not infallibly so.

Rest, meh.

Updated:

100% reads

:

TOWN:

{Datisi, Dannflor, catboi}

SCUM:

{NorwegianboyEE}

NO DOUBT

:

TOWN:

{Frozen Angel}

SCUM:

{Alisae}

HIGH CONFIDENCE

:

(~80-90%)

TOWN:

{Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Mistyx}

MID-CONFIDENCE

:

(~65-75%)

TOWN:

{Charloux}

LOW-CONFIDENCE

:

(~50-60%)

TOWN:

{Cephrir}

SCUM:

{Something_Smart}

ZERO-CONFIDENCE

:

(fucked if I know)

{SCRRRDBEAR town?}
{Shiro, Shiidaji}
{PenguinPower, KittyTacky}

{Titus}

As a reminder: baseline is 0%. So 50% isn't null, 50% is +50% from null. 60% isn't 10% above null, it's 60% above null.

Norwee moves up to a locked read because I discussed my read on him in the neighborhood and I realized that, actually, yeah. I CAN soulread Norwee. He IS scum. I guarantee you he is scum. 100% guaranteed. I reviewed it in my head countless times. I approached it from every angle, wondering, "am I wrong here?". But I'm not.
I don't know why I can soulread Norwee. But I can. And he's scum this game. You might not believe me today, but it doesn't matter. You want to eliminate scum, you eliminate Norwee. Period. I guarantee you. Literally 100% guarantee you. Norwee is scum. Norwee is so scum that if a cop claims an inno on him, the cop is lying.

I know Norwee's play. I know I can read him. I know that he's scum here. He's the one player onsite that I can randomly soulread. And he is scum, here.
I know I

should

give reasons for why he's scum, demonstrating why he's scum, but I'm done being mastina so I'm done trying to explain reads. It's a read I'm NEVER wrong about tho. I KNOW I can read Norwee, and I KNOW that Norwee's scum this game.

Frozen Angel, her posting and stances I believe are town aside from the meta suggestion she's town. I'm comfortable locking her there as town, with no doubts.

Alisae I realize people think e's town today, but when Alisae continues to defend Norwee to the death when Norwee flips scum, remember that Alisae has done so from the onset. Remember every mislim Alisae pushes through, and e will push through several! Remember all the players that are town that Alisae ends up suspecting. Eventually, Alisae will feel the pressure of widely not being seen town anymore, and at that point will probably bus, but then e will use the towncred from that bus to leverage even more mislims. So remember this and remember that all of it collectively means that Alisae is scum.

I remembered the reasons on fire beyond "fire isn't playing like Datisi's cafe, therefore town", and yes, they are good. fire's early thoughts I find highly town, highly accurate, and highly reasonable in a way unlikely to be scum. His engagement has just felt a lot more natural and organic this game. Tonewise he's an entirely different player and that tells me probably town. But, I've never played with fire outside of Datisi's cafe, so it's not the same level of locktown. He IS locktown tho.

Mistyx's posts have gotten better throughout the game, raising her to locktown as well. She's different from what I remember her being like as scum, is matching what I remember her being like as town, and has tone similar to fire that I think is town. But it's not a 100% read.

Bell's reads are honestly shit this game (see also, he thinks I'm scum, he pushed Datisi), which is in of itself a concern, and he's not QUITE as active and strong as I know a town Bell to be, but I'm still like 90% sure this is Bell's towngame because his activity has picked up (rather than died down) and he is being fairly strongly present.

Marashu is never scum here for their entering posts. Everything about Marashu radiates town. Marashu is only this low because no familiarity with Marashu.

Ditto for Val. Val is never scum here for their perspectives throughout the game, the sheer town tone, and being initially suspect of scum (Norwee, Alisae) but later ending up pocketed by them in a way that hard-spews Val town. The only reason this is a 90% rather than 100% is lack of familiarity with Val.

Charloux, I basically believe the clan leaders are all (or at least mostly) town both reads-wise (Dannflor and FA are locktown), and also mech-spec-wise (them being town makes sense given the apprentice mechanic). Play-wise Charloux's content has felt fairly good, but my lack of engagement with the majority of Charloux's stances as well as lack of familiarity keep this from being stronger.

Ceph, vibe-wise I just have a gut-town read on him. He's notoriously difficult to read, but he just seems town?

Something_Smart, similarly so, vibes as scum.

The rest, fucked if I know, with the exception of Titus.

I think Titus is scum here because I feel that if Titus were town here, she would be defending me as town in a similar way that Frozen Angel is defending me right now. Titus should

know

why I am town this game (similarly to how FA does), and yet, she is not defending me.
I know that she's busy. I know she's not doing much in the game.
But I know she's not too busy to defend me. Which is why I feel her lack of doing so is loosely scum-indicative.
But it's not a strong read because I realize that she is playing this game solo, and as a solo-Titus, she is less likely to be engaged when as busy as she is. The timeline crunch with her absent feels a little suspect, her lack of defense of me feels a little suspect, but it's not strong.

[mastina]

yea ok thinking about it more i really don't like the "ive put too much energy into mafia lately so im not going to give reasons for my reads" immediately followed by a huge wall that is just reiterating what her reads are. like the energy used to make that post could have been put towards something useful instead but she went out of her way to excuse herself from doing that and then still put the energy in anyway

Well you don't understand the way my brain works. When I said I was done giving energy, I meant it. I'm done being mastina. I can't pretend to be mastina anymore. So I'm done acting like I am.

So instead of spending time being mastina, I decided to just. Not bother.

And then ADHD + mania (instead of depression) kicked in and I wanted to post something that was a partial override of the promise to not effort, but not a full override because it was actually much easier to write than normal. It was also done at work--energy at work is entirely different from energy at home.

Still, tho. There's liberation because I've felt the release of not having to be me anymore.
I realize you won't understand what I'm saying, but that's because you didn't actually do the thing I said you should do, now, did you?
I told you that if you checked my posts onsite in the last week, you'd be able to understand. (For that matter, my blog posts in the last week, too.) You didn't actually look at that, now, did you? So of course you wouldn't understand.

I don't feel like typing up the full version of a post on this but yes. I am done being mastina. The last week broke me, and it wasn't until I gave up on being mastina that I felt good. In this game I didn't describe this as well as I should have, I admit, but I'm not really going to bother with the details.

What you need to know right now is that I genuinely don't care.
I am

aware

of the wagon on me.
I don't

care

about the wagon on me.
The town on it have shit reasons, and there's plenty of scum on it, but honestly I am done putting in the energy to care.

So instead, let me reiterate:

100% reads

:

TOWN:

{Datisi, Dannflor, catboi}

SCUM:

{NorwegianboyEE}

NO DOUBT

:

TOWN:

{Frozen Angel}

I'm NEVER wrong on any of these.

I guarantee you.

I can soulread Norwee and Norwee is scum this game.

I guarantee you that all of Datisi, Dannflor, and catboi are town.
I guarantee you that FA is town, too, albeit not to the same tier as the holy trinity is.

And given the above guarantees, between my read on em and eir stances over the game, you'll be able to

eventually

see that Alisae is scum, too.

But I'm done fighting for the reads in spite of being more sure than ever in the above being true.

[mastina]

Alisae - scum
catboi - town
Charloux - town
Datisi - town
NorwegianboyEE - scum
Bell - town
KittyTacky - scum?
Dannflor - town
Mistyx - town
SCRRRDBEAR - town?
Titus - scum?
fireisredsir - town
mastina - town
Frozen Angel - town
Cephrir - town
Shiro - town?
Something_Smart - scum
Val89 - town
T3 - town?
PenguinPower - scum?

(Actual list, refer to this.)

[mastina]

My meta on Mastina is basically:
Will Mastina have a meltdown?
Y: Scum.
N: Town.

For the record, I've never had a meltdown as scum (I'm sure you'll say this is wrong and have a scumgame in mind where you think I did, but I guarantee you that whatever game you are thinking of, that was not in fact an actual scum meltdown because I know my meta and know I've never had a meltdown as scum), so this meta is literally backwards, but it's honestly not worth fighting--my flip will show your meta's wrong, so like. Not worth bothering with it.

What IS worth bothering with is making sure people know this:

My read on Norwee is not a tunnel.
My read on Norwee is not confirmation bias.

I'm done pretending to be fake-confident in reads I'm not. I'm done making exaggerated percentages. I'm done bullshitting confidence where none really exists.

Norwee is scum because I am the only player onsite who can soulread him. And while I don't always get the chance to soulread him (it takes special circumstances to activate), once I do, I am never wrong.

And Norwee IS scum this game.

You may not believe me.
You may insist that I was confbiased.
But no. I know Norwee. WHY I know him, fucked if I know. But I do. This is Norwee's scumgame.

[mastina]

On the other hand this is one of the rare moments where Mastina is either going to walk up and correct you

I mean yeah, normally I would be correcting you.

There's not a single good vote on me. That's, what, nine votes I should be correcting the reasoning of?

But honestly you don't fucking know how done I am and I can't be damned to type it up, but I am in fact done with being mastina so like. I'm done bothering with that. Normally, I would correct you, but normally I'd be mastina. Since I'm done being mastina, that means instead I'll let my flip do the talking for me, and to reiterate.

If you want to eliminate all the scum this game, at some point you need to eliminate Norwee. Norwee IS scum here.

Since I'm done pretending to be mastina I'm done pretending to have strength in reads I don't have, so when I say Norwee is scum here.

I mean it:
Norwee IS scum here.

I might actually be more sure Norwee is scum than I am that Datisi/Dann/catboi are town. (Which is a hard feat since I am genuinely with no paranoia, 100% sure all three of them are town.)

[mastina]

bell is hard town for this page remind me to explain later

I know the reason and I agree with it. Dann is also hard-town for having thought of the logic in the first place (which I agree with), but you already knew both of these things so it doesn't really change anything, I just feel like this post needs to be reiterated for how good/accurate it is.

wow this day has really died huh

Generally speaking, that happens when I'm no longer around to post.

I'm never the top poster in a game but I'm always top-50% and usually top-25%. And my posts are what spurn those with a higher post count to actually

have

that higher post count. Without me, the whole thing falls apart and game-wide activity plummets. Literally every single game I'm in, there's a night/day difference in activity before I die versus after I die. It's one of the main reasons I've liked being mastina, because mastina has the effect of making games more proactive overall.

But this week broke me so I can't be mastina anymore. It's unfortunate, since I

am

accurate in my strongest reads.

There's a lot of reads I could be wrong on, here. Anything from mid-confidence and below, I could be wrong on.
I

could

be wrong on Charloux (although I don't think I am).
I

could

be wrong on Cephrir.

I

could

be wrong with my Something_Smart scumread. (I mean, he IS voting Norwee, and Norwee IS scum. So like, if he's scum he's voting scum. But the vote is a positive look for him.)
I

could

be wrong on KittyTacky (to be honest I actually like KittyTacky's posts and they all look town to me, it's just that I've zero confidence in the townread there).
I

could

be wrong about SCRRRDBEAR being town (tho they do look town to me).
I

could

be wrong about reads on Shiro and/or Shiidaji/T3.
I

could

be wrong about PenguinPower (who I've lost reads on altogether pretty much).
I

could

be wrong even on my Titus scumread (even tho I think I'm right).

There's a lot I

could

be wrong about.

But my strongest reads, the ones I am most confident in, I KNOW I'm right on.
This is the most sure I have been in my reads on Norwee (scum), Dannflor (town), Datisi (town), and catboi (town). I'm sure on FA being town. And my locktown/towncore is never scum. {Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Mistyx} are all town here.
My true confidence might be 80-90%, but if I were faking being mastina that 80-90% would be 98-100%. So that should give a metric for those reads.

I'm NOT wrong in any of them.

I guarantee you I'm right on literally all of those reads.

There's a lot of reads I could be wrong about.
But Norwee scum, Dann/Datisi/catboi town, FA town, locktown/towncore town, I'm NOT wrong about. Period.

It'll be your choice on whether to believe me or not but you can look back at these posts at any point during the game. (I mean, you

won't

, because players never look at eliminated town players' reads/reasons. But you theoretically can, and SHOULD. Just sayin'.)
The more and more I am shown to be right about, the more and more you should trust me in the remaining amount that I say I have no doubt in.

[mastina]

If you want a counterwagon to mastina I'm open to hearing options because I

also

feel like people are voting her more to being annoyed by her than actually finding her scummy but we need to be realistic here

Realistically speaking, your only option for a scumflip D1 is Norwee.

And, technically speaking, he still has a wagon there! So like, it IS doable.

You just won't, because in spite of me knowing that my soulread of Norwee is right, I've zero drive to actually convince you of it.

Like, I'm right. I know I'm right. But you won't believe me and I really don't care to try and convince you.

[mastina]

Good, we’re about to miseliminate Mastina, just as planned.

That would be Alisae's plan, yes.

Since Alisae wants to protect Norwee, and they know I know Norwee is scum and that I can soulread Norwee and that my accurate read on Norwee is never going away so the only way to get rid of it is for the elimination to go through D1.

Plan never would've worked if I hadn't had a hell week, but sadly, because I did, it will. One bad week from me was all it took for this to go from scummie-level town performance from me to garbage-tier.

But like--while the middle of the road reads of mine are middle of the road and thus, liable to failure...

...My strongest reads

are

right, and in particular, my Norwee scumread is a threat to the scum since the scum know I can soulread Norwee.