Warrior Cats Mafia [Day Three]

[Datisi]

ah fuck sorry you're right my bad lemme just

[Datisi]

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VOTE: Datisi

[Datisi]

(VOTE: kittytacky)

[NorwegianboyEE]

Are we absolutely sure that executioner isn’t an possible role in this game?

[T3]

Are we absolutely sure that executioner isn’t an possible role in this game?

It is mod confirmed there are no third-party roles.

[T3]

I think there was a whole discussion about it on page 20 or so when Titus claimed stray and people thought she was 3p.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Ok so i read Mastina’s whole drivel just to see if there was anything important and there was not.

Confirming it to be pointless so not any more poor souls will have to endure reading it.

[mastina]

Ok so i read Mastina’s whole drivel just to see if there was anything important and there was not.
Confirming it to be pointless so not any more poor souls will have to endure reading it.

There was plenty important there. Here let me show people again.

Spoiler: past version

{catboi, Datisi, Dannflor, Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Frozen Angel*}
{Charloux, Mixtyx}
(second tier still locktown, just not same certainty--all of them I almost put in the above tier, so the separation between them is very small and nearly nonexistent.)

TOWN:
{SCRRRDBEAR, Cephrir}

{PenguinPower}

TOWN?:
{Shiro, Shiidaji}

???
{KittyTacky}
{Titus}


PROBABLY SCUM:
{Something_Smart}

SCUM:
{Alisae}
{NorwegianboyEE}.

I'm gonna do this a bit differently, instead of town to scum doing strength.

Dann/Datisi/catboi are genuinely never scum here. Ever.
When I say that, I am not exaggerating. I have played it out in my head countless times. I've looked for literally any sign whatsoever.
I've scrutinized every interaction that I've seen from them, and genuinely.
There is zero doubt. No paranoia. None. Not a drop.

I know that I usually exaggerate. I know that I usually am hyperbolic. That when I day a read is 100%, it's not REALLY 100^, I'm just leaving out the small voices of doubt behind the read.

When I say they are 100% town, I mean 100% TOWN. I genuinely don't see the scum. It’s not there. I'm looking for it. But no matter how I slice it. They're just...town.

Next, Alisae and Norwee are both scum.
I genuinely don't see them as town. I've looked. It’s not there. I can't find the townness. All I can see is the scum.
However, I admit it's possible that I just can't see the town in them. I am telling you that they are 100% scum, genuinely no paranoia.

Below that is FA. Removing the shroud of 100%, the actual number is more like 90%, and removing the same shroud, the this-is-town is closer to 85%. I still need to do the research, since it's fully possible she can legit be 100% in her town meta with me 100% certain. But I need to do the research there.

Bell, Marashu, Mistyx are the next step down. Estimate of 75%. They have very very very strong, compelling reasons to be town, it's just that unlike the holy Trinity, I DO have paranoia. I was hiding it before, but it's there. It exists, and is the remaining 25%. Where my reasons could be wrong and the scummier aspects that briefly pinged were right.
But if this were a readslist, I'd still list them as locktown.

Fire might be up with them, but I forget the reason why. I know that part of it is "fire isn’t acting like Cafe him, therefore town", but I had reasons for townlocking him beyond that. If I remember them, will get back to you on him.

Charloux I have no clue where to place tbh.

The next definitive placements are Something Smart and Cephrir. I had one as SLIGHTLY higher than the other while writing this mentally, but I can't remember which was higher right now because they're that close in comparative strength, at about 60% for SS scum, Ceph town.
(Note for percentages: 50% isn’t null, null is 0%. So 60% isn’t "just 10% higher than default", it's 60% higher than default.)

The rest, don't honestly know percentage wise.
Bear, Charlpux, Shiro, and Shiidaji I all loosely think are town, but fucked if I know by how much.


The tl;Dr takeaway tho:
Datisi, catboi, Dannflor all ALWAYS town; NEVER eliminate them.
Genuinely locktown.

Bell, Marashu, Mistyx, probs-FA are all town; NEVER consider eliminating them prior to lylo, and even then think very very hard before doing so, because they're probably town.

Norwee and Alisae ARE scum.
You might not believe it now, but they ARE going to flip scum because they're NOT town.

SS probscum, Ceph probtown, but not infallibly so.

Rest, meh.

Updated:

100% reads

:

TOWN:

{Datisi, Dannflor, catboi}

SCUM:

{NorwegianboyEE}

NO DOUBT

:

TOWN:

{Frozen Angel}

SCUM:

{Alisae}

HIGH CONFIDENCE

:

(~80-90%)

TOWN:

{Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Mistyx}

MID-CONFIDENCE

:

(~65-75%)

TOWN:

{Charloux}

LOW-CONFIDENCE

:

(~50-60%)

TOWN:

{Cephrir}

SCUM:

{Something_Smart}

ZERO-CONFIDENCE

:

(fucked if I know)

{SCRRRDBEAR town?}
{Shiro, Shiidaji}
{PenguinPower, KittyTacky}

{Titus}

As a reminder: baseline is 0%. So 50% isn't null, 50% is +50% from null. 60% isn't 10% above null, it's 60% above null.

Norwee moves up to a locked read because I discussed my read on him in the neighborhood and I realized that, actually, yeah. I CAN soulread Norwee. He IS scum. I guarantee you he is scum. 100% guaranteed. I reviewed it in my head countless times. I approached it from every angle, wondering, "am I wrong here?". But I'm not.
I don't know why I can soulread Norwee. But I can. And he's scum this game. You might not believe me today, but it doesn't matter. You want to eliminate scum, you eliminate Norwee. Period. I guarantee you. Literally 100% guarantee you. Norwee is scum. Norwee is so scum that if a cop claims an inno on him, the cop is lying.

I know Norwee's play. I know I can read him. I know that he's scum here. He's the one player onsite that I can randomly soulread. And he is scum, here.
I know I

should

give reasons for why he's scum, demonstrating why he's scum, but I'm done being mastina so I'm done trying to explain reads. It's a read I'm NEVER wrong about tho. I KNOW I can read Norwee, and I KNOW that Norwee's scum this game.

Frozen Angel, her posting and stances I believe are town aside from the meta suggestion she's town. I'm comfortable locking her there as town, with no doubts.

Alisae I realize people think e's town today, but when Alisae continues to defend Norwee to the death when Norwee flips scum, remember that Alisae has done so from the onset. Remember every mislim Alisae pushes through, and e will push through several! Remember all the players that are town that Alisae ends up suspecting. Eventually, Alisae will feel the pressure of widely not being seen town anymore, and at that point will probably bus, but then e will use the towncred from that bus to leverage even more mislims. So remember this and remember that all of it collectively means that Alisae is scum.

I remembered the reasons on fire beyond "fire isn't playing like Datisi's cafe, therefore town", and yes, they are good. fire's early thoughts I find highly town, highly accurate, and highly reasonable in a way unlikely to be scum. His engagement has just felt a lot more natural and organic this game. Tonewise he's an entirely different player and that tells me probably town. But, I've never played with fire outside of Datisi's cafe, so it's not the same level of locktown. He IS locktown tho.

Mistyx's posts have gotten better throughout the game, raising her to locktown as well. She's different from what I remember her being like as scum, is matching what I remember her being like as town, and has tone similar to fire that I think is town. But it's not a 100% read.

Bell's reads are honestly shit this game (see also, he thinks I'm scum, he pushed Datisi), which is in of itself a concern, and he's not QUITE as active and strong as I know a town Bell to be, but I'm still like 90% sure this is Bell's towngame because his activity has picked up (rather than died down) and he is being fairly strongly present.

Marashu is never scum here for their entering posts. Everything about Marashu radiates town. Marashu is only this low because no familiarity with Marashu.

Ditto for Val. Val is never scum here for their perspectives throughout the game, the sheer town tone, and being initially suspect of scum (Norwee, Alisae) but later ending up pocketed by them in a way that hard-spews Val town. The only reason this is a 90% rather than 100% is lack of familiarity with Val.

Charloux, I basically believe the clan leaders are all (or at least mostly) town both reads-wise (Dannflor and FA are locktown), and also mech-spec-wise (them being town makes sense given the apprentice mechanic). Play-wise Charloux's content has felt fairly good, but my lack of engagement with the majority of Charloux's stances as well as lack of familiarity keep this from being stronger.

Ceph, vibe-wise I just have a gut-town read on him. He's notoriously difficult to read, but he just seems town?

Something_Smart, similarly so, vibes as scum.

The rest, fucked if I know, with the exception of Titus.

I think Titus is scum here because I feel that if Titus were town here, she would be defending me as town in a similar way that Frozen Angel is defending me right now. Titus should

know

why I am town this game (similarly to how FA does), and yet, she is not defending me.
I know that she's busy. I know she's not doing much in the game.
But I know she's not too busy to defend me. Which is why I feel her lack of doing so is loosely scum-indicative.
But it's not a strong read because I realize that she is playing this game solo, and as a solo-Titus, she is less likely to be engaged when as busy as she is. The timeline crunch with her absent feels a little suspect, her lack of defense of me feels a little suspect, but it's not strong.

[KittyTacky]

I

could

be wrong on KittyTacky (to be honest I actually like KittyTacky's posts and they all look town to me, it's just that I've zero confidence in the townread there).

Then why am I "scum?"?

Honestly, mastina towncred goes up somewhat despite this little contradiction, I like the motivation that seems to be behind these walls. Town defensive, not scum defensive.

[KittyTacky]

Are we absolutely sure that executioner isn’t an possible role in this game?

I know right? It's a huge part of why I TR Datisi, since I am town, doing this as scum would be delayed suicide once I flip green.

[Datisi]

why do you think i would be afraid of "looking bad"

do you think scum never pushes any misyeets in fear of "looking bad"

[Bell]

Did Mastina claim in thread yet.

[Bell]

If I had multiple votes they'd all be on Mastina for not playing the game.
They've written wiki articles about this.
There's no excuse.

[Datisi]

she said she won't claim in thread

lemme go consult the council on what to do

[Bell]

Just claim for her jesus.

[Datisi]

mastina's claim

Spoiler:

your mum

[Bell]

What bet did you lose?

[Datisi]

roden figured out the flavour of the serial killer in datisi's cafe

[Mistyx]

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VOTE: Datisi

this is exactly how i feel about this game right now

[Mistyx]

I'm just... not sure about mastina anymore. Her Norwe case really vibed with me but her recent posts pinged a little scummy.

I

could

be wrong on KittyTacky (to be honest I actually like KittyTacky's posts and they all look town to me, it's just that I've zero confidence in the townread there).

Then why am I "scum?"?

Honestly, mastina towncred goes up somewhat despite this little contradiction, I like the motivation that seems to be behind these walls. Town defensive, not scum defensive.

what’s up w/ this @kt

[Bell]

K.
Emotional response over.
Maybe.
Gunna think about it.

[Bell]

My initial impression is presumptive so
I need to reevaluate it.

Initial thought is assuming Mastina is scum because they know refusing to claim is anti-town. I’m aware people aren’t rational. But.
I think They’re delaying their own elimination for an advantage of some kind.
I think Mastina would reevaluate their read of Norwe here if they were town.

That’s kind of it. But I’ll think on it more.

[mastina]

I think Mastina would reevaluate their read of Norwe here if they were town.

You don't understand what a soulread is.

*I*

am not the one who needs to reevaluate my Norwee read.

*I*

have the

correct

read on him. Norwee is scum here. Period. End of discussion.

Nothing you do or say will change his alignment here. He is scum. You might not accept that, but it's the truth. The endgame will show it.

It's the players with

townreads

on Norwee who need to reevaluate their Norwee reads.

A soulread is a read that

cannot

be wrong because you are literally staring into their soul, seeing their role PM. I can see Norwee's alignment this game and he is scum.

[T3]

Skimming through Bell’s ISO in Lost, his vote was all over the place and he rarely gave context, so his vote moving all over the place is NAI.

[Something_Smart]

My biggest regret right now because it means I can't actually go "fuck that" to the idea of claiming since I literally already did, a fullclaim from the onset pretty much. (Less than 48 hours into the game.) My neighborhood can claim my role publicly at literally any time, meaning that I can't actually say "you want my claim, you flip me" or similar.

Why would you do that though, even if you could?