Cosmos Mafia (Dawn 1)

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Post Post #1750 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 11:20 am

Post by MMR »

In post 1650, MathBlade wrote:Like professor FA and RR are my ride or die towns
TBone is probably town but I get paranoid

Everyone else I can sort with the block tomorrow.
Why do you get paranoid of T-Bone?
He feels genuinely like he's trying to solve the game.
It feels kind of inline with his play in LOST.
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Post Post #1751 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 11:34 am

Post by Bunnyonce »

In post 1730, T-Bone wrote:
In post 1706, Bunnyonce wrote:Talk to me then T-Bone? I'm here for 15 minutes and will also be back in a few hours.

-Aisa
It looks weird to me that we're talking about a possible DDS vote, one happens, and you jump in to redirect. It's probably coincidence but damn if that doesn't look intentional.
Ok, can't really argue against "looks weird". I suppose you never claimed it was anything more :lol:

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Post Post #1752 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 11:56 am

Post by MathBlade »

In post 1750, MMR wrote:
In post 1650, MathBlade wrote:Like professor FA and RR are my ride or die towns
TBone is probably town but I get paranoid

Everyone else I can sort with the block tomorrow.
Why do you get paranoid of T-Bone?
He feels genuinely like he's trying to solve the game.
It feels kind of inline with his play in LOST.
-Rubella
Good question. It’s more a gut thing.

My brain agrees with you.

Like I am absolutely 100% scumreading Mastina and am very confident in the solve.

I just have a bit of “what if I am wrong feelings”. I don’t think I am wrong to be abundantly clear.

Like all my research and everything indicates such.

Dealing with work fires atm so slow to respond if anyone else asked me something I will try to get to it later or poke me.
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Post Post #1753 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 11:57 am

Post by MathBlade »

And regarding lost I barely could read that game

I’d read a post then reread it and each time it felt something different

I was in such a sick haze that game that I eventually replaced out but then kept up with it.
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Post Post #1754 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:03 pm

Post by Bunnyonce »

In post 1727, Scarfmanship wrote:Ydrasse, You say that I haven't done anything beyond that, but it worked. A wagon on me, while not the best outcome, does give fresh content to the game.

My nonanswer to your question is that I think furitive is town, and is like me but has more social capital. I think PPF votes me as either alignment because they have disliked me ever since i vaguely insulted them earlier. Dunno about the other two.

Also, there's another layer to calling for votes on DDS that (you plural)'re not seeing. Someone mentioned that DDS is a tertiary priority for people right now. I think mafia lives in tertiary priorities, and mafia lives in null reads, so if those reads are real, it's worth investigating. However, it's also worth investigating to see if the people repeating that DDS is null-scumlean are being genuine in their reads, or if they are parroting the consensus to sound town, so I wanted to see who was willing to commit to what they were saying. It also opens up the option to force potential mafia commit to a stance on a weak partner that they're not sure what to do with earlier than they want to. Or maybe we would have seen a lack of resistance which also would have been informative.

Because it is very easy to coast by shading the people everyone else is shading, complaining about mastina and mathblade, and get at minimum nullread for it.
In post 1728, Ydrasse wrote:-_-

UNVOTE:
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I contemplated telling Greeting to do this in order to make it less embarrassing, but that would have been evil

UNVOTE:

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Post Post #1755 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:05 pm

Post by professotic »

Bunny does this sum up your readslist?
Mastina - PPF (Lock Towns)
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Post Post #1756 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:11 pm

Post by professotic »

Wolves hard defending each other.
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Post Post #1757 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:11 pm

Post by MMR »

In post 1752, MathBlade wrote:
In post 1750, MMR wrote:
In post 1650, MathBlade wrote:Like professor FA and RR are my ride or die towns
TBone is probably town but I get paranoid

Everyone else I can sort with the block tomorrow.
Why do you get paranoid of T-Bone?
He feels genuinely like he's trying to solve the game.
It feels kind of inline with his play in LOST.
-Rubella
Good question. It’s more a gut thing.

My brain agrees with you.

Like I am absolutely 100% scumreading Mastina and am very confident in the solve.

I just have a bit of “what if I am wrong feelings”. I don’t think I am wrong to be abundantly clear.

Like all my research and everything indicates such.

Dealing with work fires atm so slow to respond if anyone else asked me something I will try to get to it later or poke me.
I see.
TBH I don't SR mastina as much now, especially after her latest posts. I'm mainly keeping my vote on her because I think that one of my hydra partners feel more strongly and I feel like it's better for an elinimation to happen, then none. Also, I don't really SR Scarf.
In post 1753, MathBlade wrote:And regarding lost I barely could read that game

I’d read a post then reread it and each time it felt something different

I was in such a sick haze that game that I eventually replaced out but then kept up with it.
Sorry for reminding you about LOST.
I thought that you played very well and you probably were one of the scum who I TRed for the entirety of while you were in the game.
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Post Post #1758 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:13 pm

Post by MMR »

In post 1756, professotic wrote:Wolves hard defending each other.
Nancy was pocketed by Taly and you thought that they were scum together.
Are you certain that this is scum!PPF and scum!mastina, not town!PPF being pocketed?
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Post Post #1759 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:15 pm

Post by Bunnyonce »

@prof, no? Here is my current list. Greeting is the expert on his opinion so he can tell you about his reads when he is online.

Townread

MathBlade
Yume
furtive

Townlean

STD/Ydrasse
Scarf
mastina

Everyone else is sort of a shrug. Yes, I know I said I had a mini gut read on DDS as town, I don't feel like it's based on enough evidence to move them officially into the townleans.

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Post Post #1760 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:17 pm

Post by MathBlade »

It’s fine to remind me. I just don’t think I will be much help in using lost as an accurate meta source or agreeing with anything.

You could tell me someone posted 500 times and pigs flew and I’d be like yeah okay sure

Tbh her latest posts only reinforce the scumread so *shrug* she doesn’t feel very solvey at all.
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Post Post #1761 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:17 pm

Post by Bunnyonce »

In post 1755, professotic wrote:Bunny does this sum up your readslist?
Mastina - PPF (Lock Towns)
I'd like to know why you thought this was a worthwhile post.
In post 1756, professotic wrote:Wolves hard defending each other.
Assuming this is directed at us, how exactly does your theory fit into my latest unvote?

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Post Post #1762 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:17 pm

Post by MMR »

Bunnyonce wrote:@prof, no? Here is my current list. Greeting is the expert on his opinion so he can tell you about his reads when he is online.

Townread

MathBlade
Yume
furtive

Townlean

STD/Ydrasse
Scarf
mastina

Everyone else is sort of a shrug. Yes, I know I said I had a mini gut read on DDS as town, I don't feel like it's based on enough evidence to move them officially into the townleans.

-Aisa
Wait.
Is most of the others null, then?
Or am I missing your SRs?
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Post Post #1763 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:24 pm

Post by MMR »

In post 1760, MathBlade wrote:It’s fine to remind me. I just don’t think I will be much help in using lost as an accurate meta source or agreeing with anything.

You could tell me someone posted 500 times and pigs flew and I’d be like yeah okay sure

Tbh her latest posts only reinforce the scumread so *shrug* she doesn’t feel very solvey at all.
I agree with most of this.
But, I don't get the last sentence. I feel like while most of her reads seem still somewhat "set in stone" (this is what Measles said when I asked about placing the vote on her), she seems to have finally placed her attention off you and that's an improvement.
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Post Post #1764 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:26 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 1607, mastina wrote:
In post 1602, MMR wrote:(By the way, is it NAI for him to do this?)
Oh certainly!

There's basically five MathBlade models.

1: MathBlade is scum, and tries to convince me he is town. This is the least-common of the five, which is ironic, because it's the most effective at deceiving me. But as scum, MathBlade genuinely doesn't think to do this most of the time. Mostly trivia tho because we're not in this world.
2: MathBlade is town, and tries to convince me he is town. When this happens, I tend to think it's the first model, which is ironic because the first model is something he almost never does. Mostly trivia tho because we're not in this world.
3: MathBlade is town, and is convinced I am scum. He becomes irrationally certain of it and will not budge.
4: MathBlade is scum, and panics at my suspicion on him.
5: MathBlade is scum, and pretends to be the third model--he knows how irrational his town self is, so he plays into the bit, exaggerating it slightly and embracing the push.
(4 and 5 tend to go hand-in-hand, but are not fully one and the same.)

Objectively I realize the third has a quite high likelihood of being true.
But like--by gut, I feel like the fifth is the actual truth because it
feels
like MathBlade is exaggerating.

Yes, I know that anything "MathBlade surely couldn't think this as town", actually MathBlade can.
But it's like--it's not so much that MathBlade can't think those things, so much as it is, I feel like a town MathBlade wouldn't.
That there's a chance he did, but everything he does is just that: a chance of being MathBlade-town, but feeling statistically unlikely.

The statistical unlikelies pile up.

Say something was 40% from MB town.
A different thing is 40% from MB town.
A different thing is 35% from MB town.
A different thing is 45% from MB town.

Those begin to add up and create a world where in order for MB to be town, you have to believe that MathBlade did them
all
as town, rather than just one or two.

And those things are quite numerous. MathBlade's posts feel like he's aware of his meta's worse aspects and deliberately exaggerating them for the towncred and to get away with being anti-town. That he's aware he could do all the things he is doing as town, so is doing them, even though if he were town he wouldn't actually be doing them.

That's what he feels like.
Please explain how a read wall of statistics about me is moving away from me?
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Post Post #1765 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:26 pm

Post by MathBlade »

(We all know I disagree with the figures and that’s best to death)
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Post Post #1766 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:35 pm

Post by MathBlade »

Even in that post she’s committing a logical fallacy as well.

She’s saying it’s 25% likely that X happens for Math town
And 45% likely for Y

She’s not accounting for independent events or the likely hood that A specific event has to occur. (A = capitalized for emphasis)

It’s like the main problem with Big Bang denial and random chance.

I mean if you take the odds of all this dna evolving then those odds are so minuscule then there’s no way we evolved.

But at least one of the very very tiny probabilities has to be right.
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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Post Post #1767 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:36 pm

Post by MMR »

In post 1764, MathBlade wrote:
In post 1607, mastina wrote:
In post 1602, MMR wrote:(By the way, is it NAI for him to do this?)
Oh certainly!

There's basically five MathBlade models.

1: MathBlade is scum, and tries to convince me he is town. This is the least-common of the five, which is ironic, because it's the most effective at deceiving me. But as scum, MathBlade genuinely doesn't think to do this most of the time. Mostly trivia tho because we're not in this world.
2: MathBlade is town, and tries to convince me he is town. When this happens, I tend to think it's the first model, which is ironic because the first model is something he almost never does. Mostly trivia tho because we're not in this world.
3: MathBlade is town, and is convinced I am scum. He becomes irrationally certain of it and will not budge.
4: MathBlade is scum, and panics at my suspicion on him.
5: MathBlade is scum, and pretends to be the third model--he knows how irrational his town self is, so he plays into the bit, exaggerating it slightly and embracing the push.
(4 and 5 tend to go hand-in-hand, but are not fully one and the same.)

Objectively I realize the third has a quite high likelihood of being true.
But like--by gut, I feel like the fifth is the actual truth because it
feels
like MathBlade is exaggerating.

Yes, I know that anything "MathBlade surely couldn't think this as town", actually MathBlade can.
But it's like--it's not so much that MathBlade can't think those things, so much as it is, I feel like a town MathBlade wouldn't.
That there's a chance he did, but everything he does is just that: a chance of being MathBlade-town, but feeling statistically unlikely.

The statistical unlikelies pile up.

Say something was 40% from MB town.
A different thing is 40% from MB town.
A different thing is 35% from MB town.
A different thing is 45% from MB town.

Those begin to add up and create a world where in order for MB to be town, you have to believe that MathBlade did them
all
as town, rather than just one or two.

And those things are quite numerous. MathBlade's posts feel like he's aware of his meta's worse aspects and deliberately exaggerating them for the towncred and to get away with being anti-town. That he's aware he could do all the things he is doing as town, so is doing them, even though if he were town he wouldn't actually be doing them.

That's what he feels like.
Please explain how a read wall of statistics about me is moving away from me?
I missed this post in my skim-through.
Though, I think that it was because she was responding to me or I feel like she might've moved away from you, completely.
I might move her down in my reads a bit but I feel like most of her other posts had been not about you.
So, it's still an attempt and I think that she has potential to fully move away, even if she hasn't rn.
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Post Post #1768 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:38 pm

Post by MathBlade »

So yes it’s very likely we evolved due to the sheer amount of evidence. Not because of the random percentages combined of any one evolution.

It’s a convoluted math topic but pretty common when people add math and real life odds.
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Post Post #1769 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:38 pm

Post by MMR »

In post 1761, Bunnyonce wrote:
In post 1755, professotic wrote:Bunny does this sum up your readslist?
Mastina - PPF (Lock Towns)
I'd like to know why you thought this was a worthwhile post.
In post 1756, professotic wrote:Wolves hard defending each other.
Assuming this is directed at us, how exactly does your theory fit into my latest unvote?

-Aisa
I think that Drap (who I'm assuming to have made those posts) is confbiased.
He's done that before to me and Mumps, in LOST, whch eventually lead to him faking a guilty and getting us mislimmed. (All's forgiven, though.)
So I would expect that it is going to last for a while.
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Post Post #1770 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:39 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 1767, MMR wrote:
In post 1764, MathBlade wrote:
In post 1607, mastina wrote:
In post 1602, MMR wrote:(By the way, is it NAI for him to do this?)
Oh certainly!

There's basically five MathBlade models.

1: MathBlade is scum, and tries to convince me he is town. This is the least-common of the five, which is ironic, because it's the most effective at deceiving me. But as scum, MathBlade genuinely doesn't think to do this most of the time. Mostly trivia tho because we're not in this world.
2: MathBlade is town, and tries to convince me he is town. When this happens, I tend to think it's the first model, which is ironic because the first model is something he almost never does. Mostly trivia tho because we're not in this world.
3: MathBlade is town, and is convinced I am scum. He becomes irrationally certain of it and will not budge.
4: MathBlade is scum, and panics at my suspicion on him.
5: MathBlade is scum, and pretends to be the third model--he knows how irrational his town self is, so he plays into the bit, exaggerating it slightly and embracing the push.
(4 and 5 tend to go hand-in-hand, but are not fully one and the same.)

Objectively I realize the third has a quite high likelihood of being true.
But like--by gut, I feel like the fifth is the actual truth because it
feels
like MathBlade is exaggerating.

Yes, I know that anything "MathBlade surely couldn't think this as town", actually MathBlade can.
But it's like--it's not so much that MathBlade can't think those things, so much as it is, I feel like a town MathBlade wouldn't.
That there's a chance he did, but everything he does is just that: a chance of being MathBlade-town, but feeling statistically unlikely.

The statistical unlikelies pile up.

Say something was 40% from MB town.
A different thing is 40% from MB town.
A different thing is 35% from MB town.
A different thing is 45% from MB town.

Those begin to add up and create a world where in order for MB to be town, you have to believe that MathBlade did them
all
as town, rather than just one or two.

And those things are quite numerous. MathBlade's posts feel like he's aware of his meta's worse aspects and deliberately exaggerating them for the towncred and to get away with being anti-town. That he's aware he could do all the things he is doing as town, so is doing them, even though if he were town he wouldn't actually be doing them.

That's what he feels like.
Please explain how a read wall of statistics about me is moving away from me?
I missed this post in my skim-through.
Though, I think that it was because she was responding to me or I feel like she might've moved away from you, completely.
I might move her down in my reads a bit but I feel like most of her other posts had been not about you.
So, it's still an attempt and I think that she has potential to fully move away, even if she hasn't rn.
-Rubella
I will believe it when I see it.

As I said I have work fires so sniping when I can but until she actually looks solvey I don’t trust she is. It just looks like she’s just trying to eliminate me for sussing her and doing the bare minimum to avoid antispew.
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Post Post #1771 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:41 pm

Post by MathBlade »

Is it possible I am confbiased? Of course.

I just really don’t think so.

I added stage guards for it and went through every argument that she’s town,

It boils down to people saying I know better than you which against evidence is kinda demoralizing and dehumanizing.

So I don’t move based on someone else saying that
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Post Post #1772 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:47 pm

Post by Bunnyonce »

In post 1762, MMR wrote:
Bunnyonce wrote:@prof, no? Here is my current list. Greeting is the expert on his opinion so he can tell you about his reads when he is online.

Townread

MathBlade
Yume
furtive

Townlean

STD/Ydrasse
Scarf
mastina

Everyone else is sort of a shrug. Yes, I know I said I had a mini gut read on DDS as town, I don't feel like it's based on enough evidence to move them officially into the townleans.

-Aisa
Wait.
Is most of the others null, then?
Or am I missing your SRs?
-Rubella
Yeah. I mean, sometimes things ping me but none of the pings feel really stable enough to call scum. It’s not that I don’t have ideas at all, but developing the ideas takes time and somehow just hasn’t really happened this game.

I’m going to bed, bye for now~

-Aisa
We are Greeting (he/him, they/them) and Aisa (she/her, they/them).
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Post Post #1773 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 1:25 pm

Post by professotic »

The one CW I would not oppose to is a Bunny CW.
I think they are aligned with Mastina and this last post from them feels like something where I feel is more likely to come from a wolf then town.
“Oh you know pings”

Cause man trust me when I’m a wolf I’ll do stuff like “I’m conflicted”
“If I had to guess probably them” or make like random solves or theories.

That post gives me a wolf making fake reads feel.
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Post Post #1774 (ISO) » Fri Oct 28, 2022 1:26 pm

Post by professotic »

You know what ima start the CW.

VOTE: Bunnyonce

I’m not allowing there to be a town CW wolves can jump on.
Gonna make sure they are forced to lose a teammates.
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