Mini 2284: The Thing Anonymous [Day 2]

[petapan]

Vote Count 1.06

Clark (4):

MacReady, Garry, Blair, Lars

Copper (3):

Clark, Bennings, Windows

Windows (2):

Palmer, Nauls

Palmer (2):

Fuchs, Norris

Norris (1):

Copper

Not Voting (1):

Childs

With 13 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is November 10 at 1:00 AM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-11-10 02:00:00)

Notes:

Garry is being replaced. The deadline will receive an extension once a replacement is in place.

soundtrack

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Main Theme - Desolation

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▶ ❚❚ ──────────────────────●──────  3:35 / 4:29

[Copper~]

Windows stonks go down because really that was just grasping at straws.

And like, as the person that he is suspecting, I get that the natural reaction to what feels like a bad push on you is this, there is just the question of why would he even need to be grasping at straws as scum to push you here.

At the time there was no wagon higher then 4 votes, and there were 3 total wagons with 3-4 votes.

With 3 different medium sized wagons, and 0 near-critical wagons, it is hard to imagine that scum!Windows was in a position where he was so desperate to get you miseliminated that he felt the need to be "grasping at straws." Just makes a lot more sense to me that it is a townie who is genuinely thinks that you are scum.

If scum sees what they think is a contradiction or a potential gotcha on a townie, they won’t think “ehhh actually there’s no urgency so I just won’t call this out”,

they’ll still call it out. The current gamestate is pretty meaningless, scum will almost always call out something that will push their agenda.
Also I’m pretty sure Fuchs just straight up knows that Copper is a townie here

This was not my point at all.

My point is that when I see someone making arguments that come across as "grasping at straws," such as this timing argument, then it is likely either: a townie who is kinda tunneled and seeing evidence everywhere they look OR scum in a desperate position.

There is no reasons to think that if he were scum he would be in a desperate position, therefore, him being town confirmation baising his own read when looking back over it makes more sense to me.

Why can't scum fake a tunnel?

[Copper~]

Windows stonks go down because really that was just grasping at straws.

And like, as the person that he is suspecting, I get that the natural reaction to what feels like a bad push on you is this, there is just the question of why would he even need to be grasping at straws as scum to push you here.

At the time there was no wagon higher then 4 votes, and there were 3 total wagons with 3-4 votes.

With 3 different medium sized wagons, and 0 near-critical wagons, it is hard to imagine that scum!Windows was in a position where he was so desperate to get you miseliminated that he felt the need to be "grasping at straws." Just makes a lot more sense to me that it is a townie who is genuinely thinks that you are scum.

If scum sees what they think is a contradiction or a potential gotcha on a townie, they won’t think “ehhh actually there’s no urgency so I just won’t call this out”, they’ll still call it out. The current gamestate is pretty meaningless, scum will almost always call out something that will push their agenda.
Also I’m pretty sure Fuchs just straight up knows that Copper is a townie here

The 'grasping at straws' comment reads to me like whatever the tell is for when scum feel like they've been caught for the wrong reasons.

Copper's other posts since then don't give me reason to move my vote elsewhere:

Honestly I’m not the biggest fan of the votes that have piled onto Norris, but Norris also hasn’t given me any reason to feel any better about them than before.

Yeah I'm getting LHF vibes

Doesn't seem like genuine LHF town and more like scum trolling to look like LHF. Subtle difference.

Just restating their "Norris's trolling is scummy" point.

In order to contest Norris being defended.

Or maybe these are three town wagons and the things don't give two shits about pushing town wagons when there's no threat for them. But I dunno.

Possible but I'm like 95% sure there is at least one scum between those 3 wagons. imo it's Norris.

Including their own wagon in the count, I don't know how to read that. Compared to "I'm 95% sure there's scum in one of the other two wagons". I'm trying not to be tunnelled here but gut feel is this feels off from how a towny would say it. Also maybe there's an element of "look I'm agreeing to people choosing among the three of us" which to my mind means if Copper is scum both Norris and Clark are likely town since I think if Copper were buddied with either of them it would be more tempting to agree with the "maybe all three are town" angle.

Yeah you're tunneled hard, if I was scum I wouldn't really have a reason to... put myself in that limpool. It just felt less clunky than saying "between the Norris and Clark wagons".

I think windows is town for this post

ebwop

Put my comment in the middle of the quote lol

Elaborate.

"Elaborate" isn't bad in itself but it's like, a lazy way to contribute. If Copper's other posts recently offered more then this wouldn't seem suspicious but it feels to me like scum skating by without doing much.

I mean what else would I say when I feel a post lacks substance.

[Fuchs~]

Yeah I agree with this, it's just... a weird defense. Scum can fake such things.

Why can't scum fake a tunnel?

This feels intentional

I don't know how many ways I can say that this looks like a genuine tunnel vs the angle that scum would consider taking in this situation.

Yes they can, it is a possibility. I am saying I don't think that they would.

Like subtract out my reaction to his push.

The reaction to it was that it convinced zero people that copper was more likely to be scum, convinced zero people that windows was more likely to be town (again subtracting me) and convinced 5 players to lower their read on him (Copper, Palmer, Clark, Nauls, MacReady). Ah yes, the tell tell calculated scum move.

So the repeated people chiming in with "but why couldn't scum him fake this," that is simply not how I am looking at the situation, and I am asking my self "why would scum him to this to himself." And I don't think that he would. That is what I was trying to say when I was talking about the game state. There was nothing about the situation, forcing him to make such a bad move.

And I simply dont think that people not liking his argument makes him more likely to be scum, because scum are actively trying to make arguments that people like. Townies are making arguments that they believe in, regardless of how other people are going to like it.

And yes scum can do it, and yes they can make mistakes or miscalculations, so sure him still being scum is possible. But it became a lot less likely from my pov. And I think about this game in terms of more or less likely.


Anyways, not sure how many other ways I can try to reword my thoughts before I go insane, so probably going to stop responding to all questions about my windows read from here on out toDay.

[Lars~]

Alright, Nauls, I still don't see Fuchs as anything but towny, but I could be wrong on my read on Windows. After rereading and reassessing a bit I feel more of a null read on Copper, maybe leaning a bit town even.

I don't think Copper should be the elimination. I still think Clark is likely scum. I feel pretty good about Nauls, Fuchs, Blair, Garry, and MacReady. Not sure on Childs, but he wouldn't be the first place I look if Clark does turn out to be scum.

The others are likely in Palmer, Norris, Bennings, Windows.

[Lars~]

I guess it's maybe not a good idea to give too many preflip reads since scum can use those to see if they need to assimilate. I'm somewhat working under the assumption that I'll be able to notice any assimilation, but I might be overestimating my abilities on that front.

[Bennings~]

have tomorrow off will be catching up

[Nauls~]

Like subtract out my reaction to his push.

The reaction to it was that it convinced zero people that copper was more likely to be scum, convinced zero people that windows was more likely to be town (again subtracting me) and convinced 5 players to lower their read on him (Copper, Palmer, Clark, Nauls, MacReady). Ah yes, the tell tell calculated scum move.

So the repeated people chiming in with "but why couldn't scum him fake this," that is simply not how I am looking at the situation, and I am asking my self "why would scum him to this to himself." And I don't think that he would. That is what I was trying to say when I was talking about the game state. There was nothing about the situation, forcing him to make such a bad move.

You can’t look at the outcome of the situation and determine that because it was ineffective, that scum!Windows wouldn’t do it. No player has that foresight and Windows could’ve very well made that push thinking it would gain some sort of momentum (or at least make him look like he’s solving) and it just… not working.
I’ve thrown out plenty of ideas in scum games that I thought would be good but that ended up making me look worse.
You kind of address this later in your post but still, your entire idea of Windows being town hinges on him not just making a bad post as scum, which is pretty flimsy. If we bring that logic to its natural conclusion, anyone making poor arguments, points that don’t gain momentum or that make themselves look bad are town. You could apply this to any post that people don’t like. “But scum wouldn’t make a post people don’t like!”
“Scum!Windows wouldn’t make such a bad post” is an odd point to make.

[Nauls~]

I guess it's maybe not a good idea to give too many preflip reads since scum can use those to see if they need to assimilate. I'm somewhat working under the assumption that I'll be able to notice any assimilation, but I might be overestimating my abilities on that front.

I think there’s merit in ideas like these, but I feel like a large majority of the time where town decides not to voice certain reflections on the game in fear mafia takes advantage of them, it ends up not being beneficial. I think having clear dialogue with each other is more important than the potential of putting a slight damper on the scum team’s potential assimilation.

Though to be fair, preflip associatives aren’t really necessary to determine a day 1 elim, so maybe you’re right and we could pass up on those.

[MacReady~]

453 is very townie
I'm waiting for the Clark slot to come back, again

[petapan]

Garry has been replaced and a new player is now using the alias. The deadline has been extended 1 day to compensate.

New deadline: (expired on 2022-11-11 02:00:00)

Prodding Clark~.

[MacReady~]

Hello Garry 2.0

[Clark~]

453 is very townie
I'm waiting for the Clark slot to come back, again

You called?

[MacReady~]

Do you have thoughts on anything since you were here last, and is there a reason I should townread you (and therefore not try to lim you today)?

To be blunt, your slot was pretty scummy as we transitioned out of RVS, and your incarnation hasn't been much better. I've been waiting to see if you would be any townier, but you havent done much, and barring my read changing in the near future. soon I'm going to actively start canvassing to lim you. You're by far the scummiest slot in the game to me

[Clark~]

Decided to ISO Fuchs
I think this is more likely to come from town than scum:

Norris, why does you deciding that I am town mean that I get to decide your vote?

A lot of Fuchs' points are very nuanced which looks to me like trying to solve by thinking deeply about motives rather than the actual actions themselves. Which is what town would want to do instead of scum looking for something bad to jump onto.
To reiterate Fuchs, I don't understand the "why could scum not pretend to be tunnelled" argument. You could say that about literally anything.

Nauls's arguments with Fuchs look like Nauls is actively searching for things to argue about and ways to make Fuchs look bad rather than reading something and thinking it's bad. Then when the clash didn't go anywhere he just dropped it in 433.

[Clark~]

and is there a reason I should townread you (and therefore not try to lim you today)?

Short of claiming is there any way to answer this question?

[Clark~]

I don't really understand why people are town reading you anymore

[MacReady~]

and is there a reason I should townread you (and therefore not try to lim you today)?

Short of claiming is there any way to answer this question?

Being townier and demonstrating you're trying to solve the game.

Who do you think is scum?

[Fuchs~]

You could apply this to any post that people don’t like. “But scum wouldn’t make a post people don’t like!”
“Scum!Windows wouldn’t make such a bad post” is an odd point to make.

My response to a counter argument is not the same thing as my original point.

My original point was: scum, who can make up any argument about any slot, would not be making this particular argument unless they were desperate, and there is not reason for him to be desperate -- with a side splash of, I can see the exact town mindset that would lead to a townie making this point. Therefore, less likely to come from scum and more likely to come from town.

When I was looking back to count how many people scum read the post, I saw this post from blair.

Why do you think Windows is townie?

I thought his "reasoning" for thinking I am mafia is too stupid for a mafia player to make up.

My original point is more in the ball park of this. Less condescending, but in the same ball park.

[Copper~]

Yeah I agree with this, it's just... a weird defense. Scum can fake such things.

Why can't scum fake a tunnel?

This feels intentional

I don't know how many ways I can say that this looks like a genuine tunnel vs the angle that scum would consider taking in this situation.

Yes they can, it is a possibility. I am saying I don't think that they would.

Like subtract out my reaction to his push.

The reaction to it was that it convinced zero people that copper was more likely to be scum, convinced zero people that windows was more likely to be town (again subtracting me) and convinced 5 players to lower their read on him (Copper, Palmer, Clark, Nauls, MacReady). Ah yes, the tell tell calculated scum move.

So the repeated people chiming in with "but why couldn't scum him fake this," that is simply not how I am looking at the situation, and I am asking my self "why would scum him to this to himself." And I don't think that he would. That is what I was trying to say when I was talking about the game state. There was nothing about the situation, forcing him to make such a bad move.

And I simply dont think that people not liking his argument makes him more likely to be scum, because scum are actively trying to make arguments that people like. Townies are making arguments that they believe in, regardless of how other people are going to like it.

And yes scum can do it, and yes they can make mistakes or miscalculations, so sure him still being scum is possible. But it became a lot less likely from my pov. And I think about this game in terms of more or less likely.


Anyways, not sure how many other ways I can try to reword my thoughts before I go insane, so probably going to stop responding to all questions about my windows read from here on out toDay.

I disagree for the reason Nauls provided, but this feels like a townie thought process (if a flawed one) rather than defending a buddy IMO.

[Copper~]

Hello Garry 2.0

I hope Garry 2 is easier to read, Garry 1 was just... opaque, for lack of a better word. I ended up slightly scumreading them for it but I honestly wasn't sure.

[Copper~]

Nauls and Fuchs TvT 90%.

[Copper~]

I still think it's Norris and that Clark is more likely town.

[Norris~]

well you must be blind if you think its me

[Fuchs~]

Clark is more likely town.

Elaborate