Micro 1065 Coalition Game Over!

[Dannflor]

probably

I am in a general phase right now of being a try hard and getting gud and trying to improve my read accuracy significantly

[Ydrasse]

for all my joking being outside of the coalition kind of owns if it fails

[unwnd]

probably

I am in a general phase right now of being a try hard and getting gud and trying to improve my read accuracy significantly

How good are you at reading Ydrasse

Asking for a friend

[unwnd]

As we know,

I'm king at reading Ydra

I'm always wrong

That consistency is chef's kiss

[Dannflor]

I have no particular feelings about my ability to read her one way or another

probably about average

[unwnd]

i town

Just want to share how many times I stared at this message

[JunkoChan]

HEAL: Una, Menalque, Dannfloor, Vanderscamp, junkoChan

[JunkoChan]

I'm weak for dommy mommy energy and mcu references

[Una]

Every post on this page is wolfy to me.
Except the JunkoChan posts are null.

[Lucian]

I read both junko and Lucian as town but for diff reasons, unwnd too I guess but I feel less good about that

Can I get a why on these?

greeting and lucian seem like mafia

Why the second one?

not putting yourself in your coalition when you are Trying to Town is suspicious

...This is going to be embarrassing, but while I was typing that post, I forgot that I can include myself in my coalition. I think due to being distracted IRL and focusing on my reads.

Just want to share how many times I stared at this message

The tacked on 'unless you are informed' always reads like UNLESS YOU ARE INFORMED to exaggerated effect in my mind. Just reeks of guilty conscience with how point blank it is

I was illustrating the one scenario where someone's very early coalition can be a serious pick, i.e. if they already know everyone's alignment. Why is it scummy to you?

[Una]

I think due to being distracted IRL and focusing on my reads.

This doesn't make any sense. Are you mafia?

[Lucian]

I think I've cooled off on my Junko scumread, though I am still not finding that slot any easier to parse, if that makes sense.

Greeting seems even worse, looking back. He healed me at a time when I had already made 56, so obviously he didn't think it was scummy. Then unhealed me because I did something that he as scum does, but... it doesn't really track why is that suddenly scummy from me, why is he projecting onto me, OR why something like that can't come from town!me.

I really like that Una noticed that. Pretty strongly leaning town there currently.

[Lucian]

I think due to being distracted IRL and focusing on my reads.

This doesn't make any sense. Are you mafia?

No? Why would it not make sense?

[Una]

My reads and my knowledge of the mechanics feels like very different parts of my mind

[Lucian]

And focusing on one of those at the time but not the other makes me mafia because...?

[Vanderscamp]

but I was being serious about not wanting either of dann or ydra in unless they obvtown

There are 15,120 possible coalitions but only 2,520 can win the game, this is a 17% chance to immediately win.

You are excluding 2 players from possible coalitions. That means you are only considering 2,520 coalitions, 17% of the ones that are allowed. (2,520 has appeared again because the number of Ydrasse and Dannflor is the same number of people as the Mafia). The probability of winning is the same but 5/6ths of the winning coalitions, on average, aren't in play so it will be much harder to subjectively sniff and smell a winning coalition.

It's mostly just easier or harder based on what role the characters being excluded are, the probability of winning is on average the same but is much swingier.

[Vanderscamp]

HEAL: Vanderscamp, unwnd, Una, Dannflor, JunkoChan

I think Lucian/Junko aren't aligned and Lucian has been my #1 scumread for a while now therefore I'm split between them

Do you think they could be town together?

[Vanderscamp]

Every post on this page is wolfy to me.
Except the JunkoChan posts are null.

This is probably more aggressive than I would expect from scum

[Vanderscamp]

I read both junko and Lucian as town but for diff reasons, unwnd too I guess but I feel less good about that

Can I get a why on these?

greeting and lucian seem like mafia

Why the second one?

not putting yourself in your coalition when you are Trying to Town is suspicious

...This is going to be embarrassing, but while I was typing that post, I forgot that I can include myself in my coalition. I think due to being distracted IRL and focusing on my reads.

Just want to share how many times I stared at this message

The tacked on 'unless you are informed' always reads like UNLESS YOU ARE INFORMED to exaggerated effect in my mind. Just reeks of guilty conscience with how point blank it is

I was illustrating the one scenario where someone's very early coalition can be a serious pick, i.e. if they already know everyone's alignment. Why is it scummy to you?

This post reads as extremely awkward

[Vanderscamp]

I think I've cooled off on my Junko scumread, though I am still not finding that slot any easier to parse, if that makes sense.

Greeting seems even worse, looking back. He healed me at a time when I had already made 56, so obviously he didn't think it was scummy. Then unhealed me because I did something that he as scum does, but... it doesn't really track why is that suddenly scummy from me, why is he projecting onto me, OR why something like that can't come from town!me.

I really like that Una noticed that. Pretty strongly leaning town there currently.

I am interested in this from Greeting if he hasn't explained already

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Flavor

VOTECOUNT 1.03

Ydrasse:

Una,

Dannflor, Junkochan, Menalque, Una, Vanderscamp:

Junkochan

Junkochan, Una, unwnd, Vanderscamp, Ydrasse:

Dannflor

Dannflor, Una, Unwnd:

Lucian

Lucian:

Vanderscamp

Greeting, Una, unwnd, Ydrasse:

Greeting

Dannflor:

Ydrasse

Menalque, Junkochan, Lucian, unwnd:

Menalque

Dannflor, Junkochan, Una, unwnd, Vanderscamp:

unwnd

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to form a coalition!

The deadline is in (expired on 2022-11-11 20:40:33).

mod note

pls organize your coalition heals in alphabetical order yes i am a lazy bear

[/quote]

[Una]

but I was being serious about not wanting either of dann or ydra in unless they obvtown

There are 15,120 possible coalitions but only 2,520 can win the game, this is a 17% chance to immediately win.

You are excluding 2 players from possible coalitions. That means you are only considering 2,520 coalitions, 17% of the ones that are allowed. (2,520 has appeared again because the number of Ydrasse and Dannflor is the same number of people as the Mafia). The probability of winning is the same but 5/6ths of the winning coalitions, on average, aren't in play so it will be much harder to subjectively sniff and smell a winning coalition.

It's mostly just easier or harder based on what role the characters being excluded are, the probability of winning is on average the same but is much swingier.

I don't like swing I like to make heal votes until pookybear is compelled to say that Una won and Ydrasse is acting like a townsperson

[Una]

I feel like Lucian wants me under his pocket

[Una]

And focusing on one of those at the time but not the other makes me mafia because...?

Everyone is focused on reads. It is strange to focus more on reads than usual. It is almost the entire game.
It is common to focus on alliances or camouflages more than usual as mafia so maybe you substituted.

[Una]

I would have believed it better if you just said you were posting on your phone too much