Mini 2284: The Thing Anonymous [Day 2]

[Fuchs~]

I'm pretty sure that we can completely confirm Clark's alignment, here, if I'm right.

I'm at a loss how we're going from your role to 'completely confirming Clark's alignment' here

^

I'm not usually great at this setup spec - is there something I'm missing here, that would imply novice vig -> clarke town? I just don't follow

I think that they plan was to have clark target them night 1. This guarantees childs makes it to day 2. (clark town, thats a protect, clark scum, they can't kill them)

then on night 2, tell clark to target them again, while childs tried to vig shoot clark.

If clark is town, clark saves themselves and becomes confirmed town. If clark is scum, they cannot stop the shot and clark dies.

Like I said, this would actually work if scum!clark did not have the option of slot abandonment tonight to avoid this

[petapan]

Vote Count 1.09

Clark (5):

Garry, Blair, Lars, Fuchs, Bennings

Copper (2):

Clark, Windows

Windows (2):

Palmer, Nauls

Palmer (1):

Norris

Norris (1):

Copper

Not Voting (2):

MacReady, Childs

With 13 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is November 12 at 10:00 AM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-11-12 11:00:00)

soundtrack

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Humanity 2

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▶ ❚❚ ──────────────●──────────────  1:21 / 2:42

[MacReady~]

my read changed in 10 pages? wow, shocker

The issue is more that there's nothing in those 10 pages explaining how or why you might switch

[MacReady~]

then on night 2, tell clark to target them again, while childs tried to vig shoot clark.

If clark is town, clark saves themselves and becomes confirmed town. If clark is scum, they cannot stop the shot and clark dies.

I see

That relies on:
- tying up potential PR's until day3 (and thus making this a topic of discussion until then)
- Neither of them deviating from the plan
- no bodyswapping shenanigans

Which makes me a little dubious if it's worth the effort

[Fuchs~]

then on night 2, tell clark to target them again, while childs tried to vig shoot clark.

If clark is town, clark saves themselves and becomes confirmed town. If clark is scum, they cannot stop the shot and clark dies.

I see

That relies on:
- tying up potential PR's until day3 (and thus making this a topic of discussion until then)
- Neither of them deviating from the plan
- no bodyswapping shenanigans

Which makes me a little dubious if it's worth the effort

Agreed, but seeing this option has pushed me back into the world of childs thinking about the claim in terms of their own PR, and coming up with the plan.

Scum just have ways to fuck with that plan by:
-Abandoning the Clark slot
-Taking over the Childs slot tonight, to then confirm the Clark slot tomorrow.

-Or even if Clark is town, taking over the Clark slot after it is confirmed

[Blair~]

I don't understand the plan at all

[MacReady~]

Yeah, I don't think this is necessarily damning for Childs, I'm just not sure I see the benefits of doing this

[Blair~]

I mean I understand it but I don't see what the benefits are when you could've just survived to night two by like not saying anything

[Blair~]

childs is almost certainly town imo from this claim and this awful plan

[Lars~]

agreed with blair

[Nauls~]

agreed with lars who agrees with blair

[Fuchs~]

I don't understand the plan at all

In a game with no scum PRS, having a jailkeeper claim and a vigilante cross target one another would be pretty effective.

If JK claim is scum, they die. If they are town, they live and are now confirmed, and they protected the vig claim for the night on top of it.

So the basis for the plan is not bad, but once you add in the assimilation mechanic in this game it opens up lots of issues.

[Windows~]

Wow lots has happened.

I don't see why Childs thinks their role confirms Clark as town but I feel like scum fakeclaiming to help their buddy actually would be less likely to say that rather than just propose their plan for testing Clark's role. Like it seems like pushing their luck too boldly?

So while it's not impossible they're buddies, to me Childs-Clark is T-S or T-T. But as I mentioned before I think the JK claim was just a scummy attempt to fish for town PRs. And oh look it worked.

If I were town JK and someone had just outed themselves to help save me I feel like I'd be reacting a little differently here than Clark has. She's not even trying to push a different lim today. Just seems too passive for town in this situation.

In addition I also think it likely if Clark really were town that scum would've fake counter-claimed. So for me lack of counter claim to a strong PR claim also points to Clark scum.

VOTE: Clark

(I also agree with Fuchs and MacReady that this proposed test is too unreliable in this game setup in any case. And that will likely be the case with other plans in future so other PRs should think twice before claiming in future.)

[Windows~]

VOTE: Unvote

Sorry thought Norris had posted. We should ideally get his thoughts on record also before ending the day.

[Fuchs~]

well that was enought ime for a claim VOTE: Clark

I have fully walked away my initial paranoia on the claim coming from scum childs to save scum clark, because childs was wilding towards killing him just a page before falling over to save him lmao.

[Fuchs~]

Hey Childs, if you do live to night two, I would advise not actually shooting. I think vig picks up a lot of negative utility in this set up because of the combined nature of [ we don't get night flips] + [we started with a confirmed count of scum.]

If you ignore me, and decide that you want to shoot anyways because you have a shiny gun and want to use it, then make sure you announce your target before thread lock, so that if you are assimilated, we will still know what kill was because of you and what kill was related to the scum team.

[Childs~]

I don't see how you being a novice vig proves that Clark is town or will enable us to 'test' her overnight.

It’s quite simple.

If there is ever a night with two deaths, it's proven I shot that night--thus, could not have been assimilated on any prior night.

If I shoot a target and my target doesn’t die, then the only options are that both myself and Clark are scum,
Or that both Clark and myself are town.

If I live long enough to shoot, then Clark was protecting me regardless of alignment.

It's been pointed out that Clark could just assimilate. No fucking duh, that's why we pay attention to when every slot is posting and how they are posting--looking not only for a deviation, but ALSO any slot matching what Clark was doing previously.

Clark would need to mask NOT ONLY their own time, BUT ALSO match the time of the target--which limits the options enough to make body swapping nigh impossible.

As for why Jailkeeper is a real claim, you guys DO play Normals, right???

Jailkeeper is THE role you pair with Vig.
I asked for information on gates specifically because that combo in of itself if entirely ungated is borderline balanced for a 13p game. It opens up a combo that is incredibly stiffling.
So no fucking shit I am defending Clark, now.

Clark is town.

Remember: scum have no power roles beyond the assimilation mechanism.

So then, the combo can only be broken by scum attempting the assimilation mechanic, which is why we need to deny them viability of it.

No assimilation viability, no ability to break the broken vig jk combo.

[Windows~]

If successful assimilation is as hard as you make it sound - "nigh impossible" - doesn't that mean the JK plus vig combo is at best "borderline balanced" in this game also?

[Palmer~]

I think Childs is greatly overestimating this town's ability to successfully figure out assimilations. And considering the entire plan hinges on that, I think it's a very bad plan.

I also echo Childs being town, though.

Currently busy, will have more time in a few hours to read properly and see if I have thoughts on anything else.

[Fuchs~]

If I shoot a target and my target doesn’t die, then the only options are that both myself and Clark are scum,
Or that both Clark and myself are town.

If I live long enough to shoot, then Clark was protecting me regardless of alignment.

Oh. This plan is worse then what I thought it was. Cross shooting at one another would be better in basically every way lmao.

Like assume you both make it to night 2, and you set up your coordination

Out comes from cross shooting:
Clark Town: Clark is confirmed town AND Clark protected you on Night 2.
Clark Scum: Confirmed scum Clark is dead.

Out comes from your plan:
Clark Town: Clark is confirmed town. You are not protected Night 2
Clark Scum: Your target dies (we don't know their alignment), Clark abandons slot and we have to hunt for him all over again.

-----

And I don't even want to do the cross shooting plan because the above outcomes requires the original assumption

Like assume you both make it to night 2, and you set up your coordination

Which is flawed, because what stops any of these things from happening:

Scum!Clark, he just leaves his slot night 1

Scum!Clark's scum team assimilates you tonight. Tomorrow they do their best to impersonate you, and then when they "coordinate" with Clark, they just... don't kill that person. Clark confirmed town, job well done. They then assimilate out of your slot since 2 kills will not happen (by saying you want to shoot at someone with out the protection) OR they say you should keep getting protected by clark, and therefore cannot make 2 kills happen until Clark is dead.


Your plan is not a full proof plan, your plan revolves around the benefits if clark is town and broadly dismisss the negative if clark is scum by saying assimilation is impossible to pull off.

From my PoV, your plan is good if Clark is town, but bad if Clark is scum. So, gotta fall back on judging the decision on what I think his alignment is, and his play at all points in time while close to elimination say scum to me.

[Fuchs~]

Out comes from cross shooting:
Clark Town: Clark is confirmed town AND Clark protected you on Night 2.
Clark Scum: Confirmed scum Clark is dead.

Out comes from your plan:
Clark Town: Clark is confirmed town. You are not protected Night 2
Clark Scum: Your target dies (we don't know their alignment), Clark abandons slot and we have to hunt for him all over again.

Actually sorry. The town outcome is the same for either, but the scum outcome is still worse. Brain did not brain correctly.

[Garry~]

I don't really like the plan of childs.
As said by Mac, novice vig doesn't imply town!Clark.

[Lars~]

I'm just waiting for the Clark elim at this point.

Fuchs do you want to talk about Palmer? Are you still suspicious there? I'm curious on your thoughts

[Childs~]

If successful assimilation is as hard as you make it sound - "nigh impossible" - doesn't that mean the JK plus vig combo is at best "borderline balanced" in this game also?

Well the mod wouldn't balance on assimilation being difficult, he'd balance if anything off the opposite--which means we NEED the Jailkeeper to be town balance-wise.

[Childs~]

I think Childs is greatly overestimating this town's ability to successfully figure out assimilations.

Well, there’s a simple solution to that:
Get better.

Unironically.

Just have a posting style which is hard to continuously replicate long-term, making it nearly impossible to fake. The closer to your natural, the better; the less generic, the better.

And then just pay attention to others.

It's not that hard to do.