Mini 2284: The Thing Anonymous [Day 2]

[Fuchs~]

I'm just waiting for the Clark elim at this point.

Fuchs do you want to talk about Palmer? Are you still suspicious there? I'm curious on your thoughts

I feel like I fully voiced my thoughts on him. There is nothing that has come from him since that has swayed my position on him in a vacuum.

His reaction to Clarks claim in 539 do seem less likely as partners, as it has the function of discouraging a PR from outing vs a jailkeeper fake claim that likely would have been chosen to bait one out. So a Clark scum flip would probably soften the read somewhat -- but that would also entail a full re-eval from the PoV of confirmed scum!Clark anyways.

[Nauls~]

I'm not particularly interested in altering the way I post for the sake of making assimilation harder. It's time and effort I'd rather spend elsewhere, and I don't find the idea of making the game's most interesting mechanic unfeasible to be a fun way to play. It might give us a slight edge but I'm not interested in it. Not gonna look at hours people are online either for similar reasons. Ultimately I respect the setup and the mafia members enough that I want us to be able to play the game properly.
I will do my best to pick apart the way people write for the sake of finding assimilation, though, because that actually seems to be in spirit with the game.

[Fuchs~]

If successful assimilation is as hard as you make it sound - "nigh impossible" - doesn't that mean the JK plus vig combo is at best "borderline balanced" in this game also?

Well the mod wouldn't balance on assimilation being difficult, he'd balance if anything off the opposite--which means we NEED the Jailkeeper to be town balance-wise.

It is pretty wild to make an assertion about the needed PRs to balance towns power when there are exactly 2 claimed slots.

Like, this has the built in assumption that there are not other PRs floating out

[Childs~]

I don't really like the plan of childs.
As said by Mac, novice vig doesn't imply town!Clark.

Yes it does, because Jailkeeper and Vigilante are meant to be paired together.

And, let me drop this bombshell:

WHAT MAKES CLARK LOOK LIKE SCUM TO YOU?

Serious question.

Would it be a lack of content?
Would it be the content being posted being scummy?
Both?
The claim into the above? The above into claim?
All valid, but follow along with me, here, that is important.

So you think BY PLAY that Clark is scum, yes???

Alrighty then.

Let's work with that!

WHAT'S THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO IF WE ELIMINATE A TOWN-CLARK?

We lose a Jailkeeper and me, with no scum dead and the two strongest TPRs dead before D2.

Alright, so let's cover the inverse, then!

WHAT'S THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO IF WE LET A SCUM-CLARK LIVE D1?

You've already given the answer to this repeatedly, the stupidly obvious,
Clark hops to a new body.

Okay but here's the most important part and why this fear mongering is fucking stupidity incarnated:

WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THAT ON D2 IN THE DISGUISED PLAYER'S BODY, CLARK WILL SOMEHOW MAGICALLY IMPROVE IN PLAY AS SCUM?

Clark is scummy as fuck by play, enough to get run up today.

Even if he's scum, that trait ain't magically going to disappear overnight from possessing a new body.
The scumminess of his content would still be there--just in a different body.

So, what's the risk?
Clark's scummy enough to be wagoner right now, he's scummy enough to be wagoner on whoever he'd hop to if he's scum.

[Childs~]

I'm not particularly interested in altering the way I post for the sake of making assimilation harder. It's time and effort I'd rather spend elsewhere, and I don't find the idea of making the game's most interesting mechanic unfeasible to be a fun way to play. It might give us a slight edge but I'm not interested in it. Not gonna look at hours people are online either for similar reasons. Ultimately I respect the setup and the mafia members enough that I want us to be able to play the game properly.
I will do my best to pick apart the way people write for the sake of finding assimilation, though, because that actually seems to be in spirit with the game.

Mechanics are meant to be used. If we shut down the scum's ability to use the mechnic, we invented our own mechanics which effectively generates a lead from nothing.

[Nauls~]

(Clark uses they/she)

[Childs~]

If successful assimilation is as hard as you make it sound - "nigh impossible" - doesn't that mean the JK plus vig combo is at best "borderline balanced" in this game also?

Well the mod wouldn't balance on assimilation being difficult, he'd balance if anything off the opposite--which means we NEED the Jailkeeper to be town balance-wise.

It is pretty wild to make an assertion about the needed PRs to balance towns power when there are exactly 2 claimed slots.

Like, this has the built in assumption that there are not other PRs floating out

Actually, no, it doesn't.

I've never claimed that our power is going to be just two roles. It's not, i just see no reason to say what it WOULD be.

But, Jailkeeper with my role is definitely the MAJORITY of the power.
Not all of it.
But hands-down the strongest two roles, designed to work in tandem.

[Childs~]

(Clark uses they/she)

Sorry, am in rush and phoneposting, hard to check.

Give me time to not be on mobile and I can engage better.

But Clark is town.

[Lars~]

I'm just waiting for the Clark elim at this point.

Fuchs do you want to talk about Palmer? Are you still suspicious there? I'm curious on your thoughts

I feel like I fully voiced my thoughts on him. There is nothing that has come from him since that has swayed my position on him in a vacuum.

His reaction to Clarks claim in 539 do seem less likely as partners, as it has the function of discouraging a PR from outing vs a jailkeeper fake claim that likely would have been chosen to bait one out. So a Clark scum flip would probably soften the read somewhat -- but that would also entail a full re-eval from the PoV of confirmed scum!Clark anyways.

Okay fair, I just was curious if you had any more thoughts that you hadn't gone into fully. I feel a little conflicted on him but lean scum, and if you had a strong read I'd feel better about being more confident there

I don't think he's unlikely to be a Clark partner, personally

[Fuchs~]

If successful assimilation is as hard as you make it sound - "nigh impossible" - doesn't that mean the JK plus vig combo is at best "borderline balanced" in this game also?

Well the mod wouldn't balance on assimilation being difficult, he'd balance if anything off the opposite--which means we NEED the Jailkeeper to be town balance-wise.

It is pretty wild to make an assertion about the needed PRs to balance towns power when there are exactly 2 claimed slots.

Like, this has the built in assumption that there are not other PRs floating out

Actually, no, it doesn't.

I've never claimed that our power is going to be just two roles. It's not, i just see no reason to say what it WOULD be.

But, Jailkeeper with my role is definitely the MAJORITY of the power.
Not all of it.
But hands-down the strongest two roles, designed to work in tandem.

Your statement was that "we NEED the Jailkeeper to be town balance-wise"

This is not a statement that can be made with just the information that is available. There are 11 unclaimed slots out there. For all I know, hidden amongst those unclaimed slots there are actually so many PRs out there that having a Jailkeeper on top of them would be way too powerful

How can you say that we "NEED" it in order to be balance, when we have no idea the amount of power that exists in the unclaimed roles?

But, Jailkeeper with my role is definitely the MAJORITY of the power.
Not all of it.
But hands-down the strongest two roles, designed to work in tandem.

This is a circular argument.

You first assume that a Jailkeeper and a Vig exist, then decide that that is the appropriate amount of power for a town tow have, then conclude that Clark is a town Jailkeeper.

But that first assumption, that there is a jailkeeper and a vig, relies on the Clark being town

Like, can you really not imagine ANY OTHER combination of town Power Roles that could be balanced with Vigilante + (insert unknown, unclaimed, PRs).

There are infinite combinations of a vig + 9 other townies, that don't have a jailkeeper, that could be balanced in this game, and you are proclaiming that none of those are possible.

[Fuchs~]

I'm just waiting for the Clark elim at this point.

Fuchs do you want to talk about Palmer? Are you still suspicious there? I'm curious on your thoughts

I feel like I fully voiced my thoughts on him. There is nothing that has come from him since that has swayed my position on him in a vacuum.

His reaction to Clarks claim in 539 do seem less likely as partners, as it has the function of discouraging a PR from outing vs a jailkeeper fake claim that likely would have been chosen to bait one out. So a Clark scum flip would probably soften the read somewhat -- but that would also entail a full re-eval from the PoV of confirmed scum!Clark anyways.

Okay fair, I just was curious if you had any more thoughts that you hadn't gone into fully. I feel a little conflicted on him but lean scum, and if you had a strong read I'd feel better about being more confident there

I don't think he's unlikely to be a Clark partner, personally

You are welcome to go back through my ISO doing a control+f for "Palmer"

I still stand by all of it, and think that there are lots of reasons to think he could be scum here. He was my single strongest scum read until Clark did his naked Jailkeeper claim, and now he is chilling in second place just because someone else got scummier -- not that he got townier

[Fuchs~]

Just a follow up for Childs, who even do you want us to kill over Clark?

[Blair~]

But hands-down the strongest two roles, designed to work in tandem.

I snorted my drink out of my nose this game is great

[Nauls~]

I'm not particularly interested in altering the way I post for the sake of making assimilation harder. It's time and effort I'd rather spend elsewhere, and I don't find the idea of making the game's most interesting mechanic unfeasible to be a fun way to play. It might give us a slight edge but I'm not interested in it. Not gonna look at hours people are online either for similar reasons. Ultimately I respect the setup and the mafia members enough that I want us to be able to play the game properly.
I will do my best to pick apart the way people write for the sake of finding assimilation, though, because that actually seems to be in spirit with the game.

Mechanics are meant to be used. If we shut down the scum's ability to use the mechnic, we invented our own mechanics which effectively generates a lead from nothing.

This is a game. Have fun, and keep the game fun for other people. This might be the most important rule.

I'm don't want to play the game in a way that makes it significantly less fun for 3 other players. I don't care if it's optimal, it's a way to play that prevents the setup from flourishing and that makes it less fun for a team. (This is in reference to looking at posting times and purposely making my own posting harder to replicate, not your vigi/jk plan since that seems mildly +town at best and not gamebreaking)

[Blair~]

Night actions will be resolved on their original target. Assimilation takes place last in the order of Night Action Resolution.

@Mod how does this even work.

hypothetically if a vigilante targeted a thing who was assimilating another player and there are no other night actions, what happens?

[Lars~]

Childs
Blair
Fuchs

Nauls
MacReady
Garry
Copper

Windows
Bennings

Norris
Palmer
Clark

[Nauls~]

If we lim Clark, Clark flips jk, then Childs gets nked or assimilated and is vigi... what do we do?

I don't particularly believe Clark's claim but I'm kind of scared of that scenario where we enter day 2 down 8v3 down 2 prs.

But I guess holding back from a good lim because of a JK claim from someone about to be hammered is giving scum a free pass to fakeclaim as they wish. So maybe we just lim Clark and cross our fingers.

[Lars~]

Technically roles don't flip, but if Clark flips town we can assume. And I'm not worried about Childs getting shot at night hurting town that much.

[Fuchs~]

Night actions will be resolved on their original target. Assimilation takes place last in the order of Night Action Resolution.

@Mod how does this even work.

hypothetically if a vigilante targeted a thing who was assimilating another player and there are no other night actions, what happens?

My assumption is that when mafia assimilate, its actually 2 actions. First kill the target. Second take over that target's slot.

So if a Vig shot mafia who was attempting to assimilate, then the mafia would kill their target and the vigilante would kill that mafia at the same time.

Since the mafia is dead when it is time to resolve that action, it does not happen.

The mafia target is announced to have died and the vigilante target is announced to have died. .

[Nauls~]

Technically roles don't flip, but if Clark flips town we can assume. And I'm not worried about Childs getting shot at night hurting town that much.

Oh, I thought roles flipped during the day but you're right, only alignment should reveal.
I guess novice vigi is iffy for town anyways considering the setup, that's fair.

[Lars~]

Palmer, when you get here, I'd like to talk a bit.

[Fuchs~]

Childs seems to be of the opinion that being a vig is the bees knees for town power in this game, I still think that a vig is much worse in this set up then the average one (which is why I did not expect one to begin with).

I actually think that the best use of that role would have been to play like you are a VT, holstering for several nights, until maybe late into the game, but that is now impossible so :shrug:

[Windows~]

If we lim Clark, Clark flips jk, then Childs gets nked or assimilated and is vigi... what do we do?

I don't particularly believe Clark's claim but I'm kind of scared of that scenario where we enter day 2 down 8v3 down 2 prs.

But I guess holding back from a good lim because of a JK claim from someone about to be hammered is giving scum a free pass to fakeclaim as they wish. So maybe we just lim Clark and cross our fingers.

I agree in this setup vig is definitely more double edged but excitedly over-estimating its utility is a towntell I think? The drunk on power, "I'm a great scum hunter and now I can take down my suspects at my whim!" sort of vibe.

[petapan]

Night actions will be resolved on their original target. Assimilation takes place last in the order of Night Action Resolution.

@Mod how does this even work.

hypothetically if a vigilante targeted a thing who was assimilating another player and there are no other night actions, what happens?

Kills resolve before assimilation, so both the Thing and their nightkill target would flip as having died.

[Copper~]

I'm pretty sure that we can completely confirm Clark's alignment, here, if I'm right.

It does require that y'all can make sure that a Thing doesn’t take over an account, which this strategy might do, but I believe that we can, genuinely, break the game open from the Things having no prs aside from body snatching and flip less nightkills.

I think that this game was balanced around requiring the Things to bodyswap, and if we deny them that tool, we have a huge advantage.

I NEED Clark to confirm that he doesn’t have certain gates on his role, though.

I would prefer if everyone unvoted Clark right now, because regardless, I very strongly believe the claim.

Oooooooh, nice!

Your PFPs look so similar that I got really confused at first.