Micro 1065 Coalition Game Over!

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

replacing Menalque - he may have his slot back if he posts before I find a replacement

freezing the deadline at 1 day, 10 hours, 39 minutes.

[Una]

HEAL: JunkoChan, Una, Ydrasse, Vanderscamp, Dannflor

[Menalque]

I'm back

[Menalque]

sorry y'all, yesterday was a regional holiday and I thought I'd managed to post tues

[Dannflor]

HEAL: JunkoChan, Una, Ydrasse, Vanderscamp, Dannflor

[Dannflor]

I did get cold feet on Junko thinking 81 and 87 were a little too performative but I'm not feeling it anymore after sleeping

[Dannflor]

307 feels like scum would be afraid of it being seen as TMI

[Dannflor]

HEAL: Dannflor, Junkochan, Vanderscamp, Una, Ydrasse sorry pooky that wasn't alphabetical

[Dannflor]

Why is unwnd town

mmmm I dunno

I was getting the feeling that his dense posts came more from trying to explain reachy town thought processes than scum trying to show off

but I don't have much more than that

[Menalque]

it’s consistent with him yes but i just go >_> more because of setup implications

I mean set up implications can be what they might but I've lost every game of coalition I've ever played and one of the things that fucks it (imo) is that if you let the hard-to-read people in then it becomes really hard to figure out who is/isn't scum

whereas if you keep the people with the best scum games out, it becomes a lot easier to solve should coalition fail

[Menalque]

oop my student just arrived

[Dannflor]

I wonder if Lucian/unwnd is a thing

[Dannflor]

I feel like they just kinda, set up reads on each other without ever actually organically interacting

it's also interesting that lucian is unwnd's most developed read to the point where he has multiple paragraphs on lucian and almost nothing on anyone else

[Lucian]

Can the people who have Ydrasse in their coalitions explain to me why she's town?

[Dannflor]

it’s consistent with him yes but i just go >_> more because of setup implications

I mean set up implications can be what they might but I've lost every game of coalition I've ever played and one of the things that fucks it (imo) is that if you let the hard-to-read people in then it becomes really hard to figure out who is/isn't scum

whereas if you keep the people with the best scum games out, it becomes a lot easier to solve should coalition fail

this is a good player list

applying this to me but not una or unwnd or even junkochan means you are not sticking to the principle consistently

blah it's fine I'm not sure this is actually scummy of you but I would appreciate the effort to actually try to read me

[Lucian]

I feel like they just kinda, set up reads on each other without ever actually organically interacting

it's also interesting that lucian is unwnd's most developed read to the point where he has multiple paragraphs on lucian and almost nothing on anyone else

Do you genuinely believe that scum would intentionally play that way?

[Dannflor]

intentionally? maybe

idk how intentional it would be

[Lucian]

I think it would have to be pretty intentional, since, in a general sense, scum is not very keen on interacting with buddies.

And the fact that you're now forming your second team with the basis of "they talk a lot about me", is uh, alarming?

[Dannflor]

why is that alarming

[Dannflor]

I think scum would be very keen to interact with each other in this setup

[Lucian]

Because I'm not noticing any sort of thought on whether that reasoning actually makes sense to come from partners,

especially

since that is your second read of that nature.

Which makes it look like it's a read done for the sake of looking good, rather than actually solving...

Pedit: then it would be an intentional choice, yes?

[Dannflor]

yes I think scum would want to intentionally interact with each other a lot in this setup

I do not know whether scum would intentionally forgo talking about reads / interacting with others in favor of that

I feel like I've been very clear on why I think my reasoning makes sense?

[Dannflor]

Scum are incentivized to bus each other in this setup. It's slightly higher EV for scum if one of them is outside the coalition and one of them is within it. After all, if the coalition fails, all eyes are turning towards the coalition to find scum first, and the longer it takes to hit scum within the coalition, the better it is for scum. Now, there is a lot of WIFOM involved with this, of course, but intuitively, I think it makes sense for scum to want to distance early in this game.

[Dannflor]

your thoughts stopping at "scum don't want to interact with each other generally" feels very unintuitive to me

that's true for like

newbie scum maybe?? I don't feel like you really believe in picking at this angle

[Lucian]

I'm not denying scum will probably want to create distance between each other in this setup.

I'm saying that I think it's wrong to assume that, because they know they need to create distance, they will intentionally forgo or forget to interact with townies.

I'm also saying that you are not thinking about that when making your Lucian/X scum predictions.

And I'm saying that a townie, who is genuinely thinking about the game, would think about that.