Warrior Cats Mafia [Day Three]

[Bell]

I have never seen any data to support that VCA is any more accurate than tea leave reading and I hate that nobody has bothered putting in the effort to figure out if it works or not.
In

[MathBlade]

I have never seen any data to support that VCA is any more accurate than tea leave reading and I hate that nobody has bothered putting in the effort to figure out if it works or not.
In

The problem is different players call different things VCA.

I find it more useful to understand the game and find townreads or prove something possible or impossible than an exact solve.

When I get tunnelled I kinda forget that though :/

[Something_Smart]

S_S CAN YOU TALK ABOUT THIS READ? WHY DID YOUR VOTE STAY ON KITTYTACKY ALL D2?

2416

I liked the Kitty wagon more than the T3 wagon. I thought Shiidaji posting a mega wall in the PT and nothing in the main thread was towny, and I thought Kitty was actively suspicious and deserved to be pressured more.

[MathBlade]

S_S CAN YOU TALK ABOUT THIS READ? WHY DID YOUR VOTE STAY ON KITTYTACKY ALL D2?

2416

I liked the Kitty wagon more than the T3 wagon. I thought Shiidaji posting a mega wall in the PT and nothing in the main thread was towny, and I thought Kitty was actively suspicious and deserved to be pressured more.

What were Shiidaji’s reads? Shiidaji = T3 yeah?

[SCRRRDBEAR]

I have never seen any data to support that VCA is any more accurate than tea leave reading and I hate that nobody has bothered putting in the effort to figure out if it works or not.
In

I DON'T THINK THERE'S A NEED FOR IT TO BE TESTED, IT'S JUST APPLYING DEDUCTIVE REASONING TO VOTING HISTORY. SOME INDIVIDUALS WILL BE ABLE TO DEDUCE USEFUL INFORMATION FROM VOTING HISTORY IF THEY ARE FAMILIAR WITH BASIC PATTERNS AND MAKING LOGICAL INFERENCES. IF THEY DON'T KNOW WHAT TO LOOK FOR AND MAKE LOGICAL ERRORS THEN THEY WILL NOT PRODUCE USEFUL INFORMATION.

I FEEL THERE IS A NEED TO DO THIS NOW UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT T3/TITUS/MISTYX ARE DARK ONES BECAUSE I BELIEVE THEY ARE NOT GENUINE AT ALL, AND I THINK VCA (DEDUCTIVE REASONING APPLIED TO VOTING HISTORY) WILL GENERATE USEFUL INFORMATION NOW IF DONE CORRECTLY.

S_S CAN YOU TALK ABOUT THIS READ? WHY DID YOUR VOTE STAY ON KITTYTACKY ALL D2?

2416

I liked the Kitty wagon more than the T3 wagon. I thought Shiidaji posting a mega wall in the PT and nothing in the main thread was towny, and I thought Kitty was actively suspicious and deserved to be pressured more.

IMO THIS IS A COMPLETELY SINCERE RESPONSE AND I REALLY FEEL LIKE SS IS TOWN. THAT'S ALL I HAVE TO SAY.

MISTYX CAN YOU ELABORATE ON YOUR S_S READ?

BELL CAN YOU ELABORATE ON YOUR MISTYX READ?

She's doing more work in this game and seemingly being more inquisitive than scum her.
In addition, I don't think that she interacts with T3 as they did if they were partners.

It's honestly, good enough for me.

I THINK YOU'RE UNDERESTIMATING THEIR SCUM GAME, WHICH IS AN IMPRESSIVE FEAT BECAUSE IT'S STILL PRETTY TRANSPARENT. I CHALLENGE YOU TO REVIEW THE QUALITY OF THE "WORK" THEY'VE DONE AND ASK YOURSELF IF IT COULD EASILY BE THROWN TOGETHER TO LOOK LIKE "ACTIVITY." I SHOULD PROBABLY BoP MYSELF FOR DEFENDING THEM D2.

CAN ANYONE DISPROVE A T3/TITUS/MISTYX/KITTYTACKY/DATISI SOLVE?

HEY MATHBLADE CAN YOU DISPROVE A T3/TITUS/MISTYX/KITTYTACKY/DATISI TEAM WITH VCA?

I just got done with a shit ton of RL peopling

I don’t have the spoons to prove or disprove a and b are letters of the alphabet let alone a solve atm.

I am going to go with it’s unlikely because team wolves are generally wrong.

The VCA I did do off a very limited selection of VCs earlier suggested Kitty town iirc. Will check wind PT when I feel human. I also think Titus is town so that’s another reason it’s likely wrong.

And no I haven’t read anything else here

VCA NEEDS TO BE PERFORMED ASSUMING A T3/TITUS/MISTYX TEAM

GOD AM I GOING TO HAVE TO DO ALL THE GOOD SOLVING TODAY. I AM TERRIBLE AT VCA.

WHAT DOES "OVERLOADING A WAGON" MEAN?

Not sure on context here

It’s generally when a large group of scum is on any one wagon / avoiding it there’s a huge risk of eventually someone on the team being sussed. Scum tend to (but not always) be split on wagons for this reason even subconsciously. It’s not an absolute but a good rule of thumb,

Generally an intro VCA takes a look and see what narrative the votes themselves do. Since the moderator is a neutral party taking votes whenever they like/proper it’s usually enough to build a narrative.

Then you compare that narrative to the one in thread.

Eg an elim on scum with limited wagons says uninfluential scum couldn’t say them (or didn’t want to)
But an elim on scum on a flash wagon or with many other wagons suggests a heated debate/deadline/freak out.

So if there was randomly a flash wagon without a heated debate or limited wagons but players were successful in several pulls off and on
This helps you to find places to read to catch up on.

Imho it can help reinforce or disprove a given narrative more so than “prove” any particular team.

VCA can strongly suggest and without like a supporting defense otherwise go with it.

VCA to me is like circumstantial evidence not a smoking gun. Sometimes it’s all you got if scum are good but it is still evidence.

THIS IS ACTUALLY QUITE HELPFUL, THANK YOU. I AM ALSO TIRED AND WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO VCA TOMORROW UNDER VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS. YOU MAY NOT AGREE WITH MOST OF IT BECAUSE I'M VERY CONFIDENT IN THE T3/TITUS/MISTYX ASPECT OF MY SOLVE, BUT I'M OPEN TO CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICISM NONTHELESS.

FWIW I WISH TITUS WERE TOWN SO THAT THEY WOULD DO SOME HELPFUL VCA, BUT ALAS.

[Something_Smart]

What were Shiidaji’s reads? Shiidaji = T3 yeah?

It was very early on. Ali explained it in 364.

I am trying to decide if I think Shiidaji is more likely to do that if they do have a partner in their hood, or if they don't.

[KittyTacky]

CAN ANYONE DISPROVE A T3/TITUS/MISTYX/KITTYTACKY/DATISI SOLVE?

Me because I am not scum.

[MathBlade]

I have never seen any data to support that VCA is any more accurate than tea leave reading and I hate that nobody has bothered putting in the effort to figure out if it works or not.
In

I DON'T THINK THERE'S A NEED FOR IT TO BE TESTED, IT'S JUST APPLYING DEDUCTIVE REASONING TO VOTING HISTORY. SOME INDIVIDUALS WILL BE ABLE TO DEDUCE USEFUL INFORMATION FROM VOTING HISTORY IF THEY ARE FAMILIAR WITH BASIC PATTERNS AND MAKING LOGICAL INFERENCES. IF THEY DON'T KNOW WHAT TO LOOK FOR AND MAKE LOGICAL ERRORS THEN THEY WILL NOT PRODUCE USEFUL INFORMATION.

I FEEL THERE IS A NEED TO DO THIS NOW UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT T3/TITUS/MISTYX ARE DARK ONES BECAUSE I BELIEVE THEY ARE NOT GENUINE AT ALL, AND I THINK VCA (DEDUCTIVE REASONING APPLIED TO VOTING HISTORY) WILL GENERATE USEFUL INFORMATION NOW IF DONE CORRECTLY.

S_S CAN YOU TALK ABOUT THIS READ? WHY DID YOUR VOTE STAY ON KITTYTACKY ALL D2?

2416

I liked the Kitty wagon more than the T3 wagon. I thought Shiidaji posting a mega wall in the PT and nothing in the main thread was towny, and I thought Kitty was actively suspicious and deserved to be pressured more.

IMO THIS IS A COMPLETELY SINCERE RESPONSE AND I REALLY FEEL LIKE SS IS TOWN. THAT'S ALL I HAVE TO SAY.

MISTYX CAN YOU ELABORATE ON YOUR S_S READ?

BELL CAN YOU ELABORATE ON YOUR MISTYX READ?

She's doing more work in this game and seemingly being more inquisitive than scum her.
In addition, I don't think that she interacts with T3 as they did if they were partners.

It's honestly, good enough for me.

I THINK YOU'RE UNDERESTIMATING THEIR SCUM GAME, WHICH IS AN IMPRESSIVE FEAT BECAUSE IT'S STILL PRETTY TRANSPARENT. I CHALLENGE YOU TO REVIEW THE QUALITY OF THE "WORK" THEY'VE DONE AND ASK YOURSELF IF IT COULD EASILY BE THROWN TOGETHER TO LOOK LIKE "ACTIVITY." I SHOULD PROBABLY BoP MYSELF FOR DEFENDING THEM D2.

CAN ANYONE DISPROVE A T3/TITUS/MISTYX/KITTYTACKY/DATISI SOLVE?

HEY MATHBLADE CAN YOU DISPROVE A T3/TITUS/MISTYX/KITTYTACKY/DATISI TEAM WITH VCA?

I just got done with a shit ton of RL peopling

I don’t have the spoons to prove or disprove a and b are letters of the alphabet let alone a solve atm.

I am going to go with it’s unlikely because team wolves are generally wrong.

The VCA I did do off a very limited selection of VCs earlier suggested Kitty town iirc. Will check wind PT when I feel human. I also think Titus is town so that’s another reason it’s likely wrong.

And no I haven’t read anything else here

VCA NEEDS TO BE PERFORMED ASSUMING A T3/TITUS/MISTYX TEAM

GOD AM I GOING TO HAVE TO DO ALL THE GOOD SOLVING TODAY. I AM TERRIBLE AT VCA.

WHAT DOES "OVERLOADING A WAGON" MEAN?

Not sure on context here

It’s generally when a large group of scum is on any one wagon / avoiding it there’s a huge risk of eventually someone on the team being sussed. Scum tend to (but not always) be split on wagons for this reason even subconsciously. It’s not an absolute but a good rule of thumb,

Generally an intro VCA takes a look and see what narrative the votes themselves do. Since the moderator is a neutral party taking votes whenever they like/proper it’s usually enough to build a narrative.

Then you compare that narrative to the one in thread.

Eg an elim on scum with limited wagons says uninfluential scum couldn’t say them (or didn’t want to)
But an elim on scum on a flash wagon or with many other wagons suggests a heated debate/deadline/freak out.

So if there was randomly a flash wagon without a heated debate or limited wagons but players were successful in several pulls off and on
This helps you to find places to read to catch up on.

Imho it can help reinforce or disprove a given narrative more so than “prove” any particular team.

VCA can strongly suggest and without like a supporting defense otherwise go with it.

VCA to me is like circumstantial evidence not a smoking gun. Sometimes it’s all you got if scum are good but it is still evidence.

THIS IS ACTUALLY QUITE HELPFUL, THANK YOU. I AM ALSO TIRED AND WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO VCA TOMORROW UNDER VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS. YOU MAY NOT AGREE WITH MOST OF IT BECAUSE I'M VERY CONFIDENT IN THE T3/TITUS/MISTYX ASPECT OF MY SOLVE, BUT I'M OPEN TO CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICISM NONTHELESS.

FWIW I WISH TITUS WERE TOWN SO THAT THEY WOULD DO SOME HELPFUL VCA, BUT ALAS.

I find that listing out assumptions before starting helps:

Ie
Premise 0: Scum are of size between X and Y.
Scum have day chat/don’t have daychat.

Start small and literal things that are true almost no matter what independent of the thread then build around facts.

Eg for me I started with the general fact that scum generally are not on their buddies miselim wagon and there are usually some good town that are on a town only elim.

Both - Titus, Dannflor, Norway, Mistyx, Marashu, Enchant
Only T3 - Kitty Tacky, Datisi, Charloux, SBEAR
Only mastina - fire, Val, Bell, PP, Norway, me

So the only T3’s are likely town barring good reason.

Datisi shot up as a scumread for me due to the bad play, but initial VCA said town but did want me to focus on.

I know I am town but my slot being omitted on last VC seems more replacement oriented.

Granted the idea isn’t perfect but I think your solve is off. It’s where I am starting from.

And no it’s almost midnight so I am not updating it for replaceapalooza

[MathBlade]

Good town only on a scum elim*

I can’t type my bad

[MathBlade]

If I had spoons to make the VCA better I would but someone who knows at least the high level events will likely make a better one

[MathBlade]

Being explicit helps find wrong assumptions (ie if I am right and Titus is town) then which assumption is wrong you can find.

[Datisi]

Spoiler: bear's 3507

DATISI, IN YOUR EXPERTISE, IF D2 WERE AN SvS CROSS BETWEEN KT AND T3, WHERE WOULD THE SCUM TEAM BE MOST LIKELY TO POSITION THEMSELVES GIVEN SOME DEGREE OF COMPETENCE AS A SCUM TEAM?

either bussing whichever one looked more likely to flip, or testing the waters for some third wagon.

though this is an answer purely on theory

YEAH YEAH WE GO THEORY INTO SPECIFICS

DOES THIS FIT IN THEORY?

honestly at this point i think scrrrdbear is probably mafia

i don't have the energy to put together a coherent case but a lot of the progression from today just feels unnatural?

like i think he was just throwing people into his suspect pool for the sake of it

i don't get the progression on T3
i don't get how he went from tunneling kitty to "oh i dont like some of kitty's comments but that hood could be pure ig" and the only real reasoning seemed like it was me pushing T3?
i don't like the random questioning of fire (maybe it was catboi) reading me that never went anywhere on either side

i just feel like he's been kinda taking the path of least resistance all day and it's weirding me out

i will freely admit i'm being paranoid but the "you're either scum or paranoid from sleep deprivation" line feels kind of like a gaslight?

and i don't mean this pejoratively or as a personal attack or anything like that that's just genuinely how it reads to me

i'm becoming paranoid because there's supposedly 5 scum in the game but the most that consensus can come up with is circling back to just kitty/T3, and we don't really have any sort of towncore leadership that i can tell

it feels like there's fundamental issues in gamestate that aren't being addressed so i threw out something that i thought was plausible to explain them

Alisae
catboi
Charloux
Datisi
NorwegianboyEE
Bell
KittyTacky
Dannflor
Mistyx
SCRRRDBEAR
Titus*
fireisredsir
Cephrir
Marashu
Shiro
Something_Smart
Val89
T3 Shiidaji
PenguinPower

if we remove the people i think i have decent reasons to townread we have

catboi
Dannflor
SCRRRDBEAR
fireisredsir
Something_Smart
T3
PenguinPower

[Titus]
[Kitty]

havent reread fire but never got pinged there so that's more a case of "i need to reread that to lock it in"

otherwise uh i don't think this was necessarily a meaningful reevaluation because this is pretty much where i was earlier

bleh

VOTE: Something_Smart

feel like this is a hit btw

going to eat breakfast

you and kitty are at the bottom as the ones i have bad reasons to townread

VOTE: Something_Smart

feel like this is a hit btw

going to eat breakfast

why

you're flying under the radar

this isnt indicative of anything on its own but i think you're doing that on purpose

townread kitty in 1444 then start pushing him in 1818 / 1831 / start of d2

i don't think you have conviction in your reads and are just posting stuff to not get pushed

i could see enchant marashu having a mafia between them but i don't think it's enchant and i think marashu is individually decent enough

are they in the same hood idr

VOTE: T3

i don't know, but i don't think so. misty was voting t3 prior to this. she then unvoted him for ??? reasons, and tried to push s_s for a little bit, as the alisae and kittytacky wagons were happening. i don't think that scum transitions from bussing a deadweight buddy to pushing a random person when (1) that makes them look worse later (2) there were other possible wagons to hop on? i don't think anyone was seriously scumreading s_s. if misty is scum, that was done solely for wifom purposes.

LEARN TO KILL THE FIRE

i think he probably isn't, unfortunately

TO BE FRANK Y'ALL AIN'T EVEN CLOSE TO MY FIRST PICKS FOR A DREAM TOWNCORE EITHER, THAT'S FOR SURE. I DON'T THINK ANY OF THE THREE OF US HAVE DEMONSTRATED MUCH COMPETENCY IN UPROOTING DEEPSCUM AFAIK. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH Y'ALL AIN'T EVEN CLOSE TO MY LAST PICKS FOR A DREAM TOWNCORE THOUGH EITHER, IF THAT'S WORTH ANYTHING AT ALL.

no deepscum have flipped, nobody has displayed competency in uprooting them.... and since when am i a pick for a towncore at all?

BY THE WAY, IT'S CALLED "WORKING MEMORY"

my eyes rolled back into my skull

p sure you're both using the terms wrong

back to game related stuff - i will be extremely surprised if this post came from scum-bear.

p-edit: i acknowledge your responses i'm not going to read them or continue this conversation until tomorrow, thanks

MORE STALLING

like, this is a prime example of town-bear being insulting and demeaning to a person he's convinced is scum that i highly doubt scum-him knows how to replicate

i should probably just stop reading bear posts altogether, they're making me angry even if the garbage isn't aimed directly at me

[Datisi]

VOTE: flow trap

Honestly, thank you. My energy has been trash today, so pressure won't hurt.

Can I have a list of who is in what clan?

VOTE: Bell

can you talk more about the bell vote?

Misty being in Riverclan is perfect

why?

[SCRRRDBEAR]

i don't know, but i don't think so. misty was voting t3 prior to this. she then unvoted him for ??? reasons, and tried to push s_s for a little bit, as the alisae and kittytacky wagons were happening. i don't think that scum transitions from bussing a deadweight buddy to pushing a random person when (1) that makes them look worse later (2) there were other possible wagons to hop on? i don't think anyone was seriously scumreading s_s. if misty is scum, that was done solely for wifom purposes.

I'LL DEFINITELY CONSIDER THIS AGAIN. MY THEORY IS THAT MISTYX FELT PRESSURE TO MAKE A PLAY IN A SITUATION WHERE IT WASN'T POSSIBLE AND THEN BAILED OUT. IT WASN'T LIKE THEY INVESTED ANY THOUGHT AT ALL INTO THEIR SS READ, AND SS IS THE TYPE OF SLOT WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY AN EASY TARGET.

I THINK IT'S THE TYPE OF SCUM PLAY THAT WOULDN'T BE LOGICAL FOR SOMEONE WHO IS AN EXPERT SCUM PLAYER LIKE YOU TO MAKE, HOWEVER, I LITERALLY JUST COMPLETED A GAME WHERE A SCUM BUDDY OF MINE DID EXACTLY WHAT YOU'RE DESCRIBING EVEN THOUGH IT DREW THEM NEGATIVE ATTENTION AND THERE WAS...NO GAIN TO IT.

ALSO: MY SCUMBUDDY NEVER GOT VOTED OUT FOR MAKING THIS MISTAKE EITHER.

I AM NOT EVALUATING MISTYX AS AN EXPERT SCUM PLAYER, I'M EVALUATING THEM AS A BEGINNER-INTERMEDIATE SCUM PLAYER WHO HAS LEARNED A FEW TRICKS BUT IS HIGHLY PRONE TO ERROR.

I THINK THE MINDSET YOU ARE APPLYING HERE TO MISTYX IS PROBABLY BEST USED ON THE REMAINING TWO SCUM BECAUSE I THINK THEY ARE HIDING MUCH BETTER. UNTIL I TRY MY HAND AT VCA I DON'T CURRENTLY HAVE ANY GOOD LEADS FOR THE FINAL 2 AND I THINK THEY COULD BE QUITE TOWNREAD.

like, this is a prime example of town-bear being insulting and demeaning to a person he's convinced is scum that i highly doubt scum-him knows how to replicate

WHAT DO YOU THINK CONVINCED ME THAT MISTYX IS SCUM? WHAT CAUSED ME TO AGGRO ONTO MISTYX IN THIS WAY?

[SCRRRDBEAR]

like, this is a prime example of town-bear being insulting and demeaning to a person he's convinced is scum that i highly doubt scum-him knows how to replicate

i should probably just stop reading bear posts altogether, they're making me angry even if the garbage isn't aimed directly at me

SCUM MOTIVATION FOR THIS POST NOTED FYI

[flow trap]

CAN ANYONE DISPROVE A T3/TITUS/MISTYX/KITTYTACKY/DATISI SOLVE?

Me because I am not scum.

Works for me

can you talk more about the bell vote?

Not at the moment

Misty being in Riverclan is perfect

why?

Cause Misty is a prefix usually in Riverclan; odd thing to push on, but it pings me as town.

[SCRRRDBEAR]

Cause Misty is a prefix usually in Riverclan; odd thing to push on, but it pings me as town.

DOES ANYTHING MAKE YOU DISTRUST MISTYX?

[Datisi]

WHAT DO YOU THINK CONVINCED ME THAT MISTYX IS SCUM? WHAT CAUSED ME TO AGGRO ONTO MISTYX IN THIS WAY?

i don't know, why is it important?

[SCRRRDBEAR]

WHAT DO YOU THINK CONVINCED ME THAT MISTYX IS SCUM? WHAT CAUSED ME TO AGGRO ONTO MISTYX IN THIS WAY?

i don't know, why is it important?

THIS DOESN'T SEEM LIKE A REAL QUESTION. ARE YOU TRYING TO PROTECT MISTYX?

[Datisi]

no, i'm trying to figure out why you're asking me the things you're asking me

[SCRRRDBEAR]

MY INTERACTIONS WITH YOU DON'T SEEM LIKE MY INTERACTIONS WITH TOWN!DATISI IN THE PAST. SOMETHING SEEMS OFF.

[Datisi]

k

[SCRRRDBEAR]

no, i'm trying to figure out why you're asking me the things you're asking me

MY INTERACTIONS WITH YOU DON'T SEEM LIKE MY INTERACTIONS WITH TOWN!DATISI IN THE PAST. SOMETHING SEEMS OFF.

IT FEELS LIKE YOU ALREADY KNOW PLAYER'S ALIGNMENTS IN THIS GAME. IT DOESN'T FEEL LIKE YOU'RE TRYING TO SORT MYSELF OR MISTYX.

[Datisi]

i have sorted you three years ago

[SCRRRDBEAR]

I'M GUESSING IF I TAKE A LOOK AT YOUR ISO YOU WILL NOT BE VOTING TITUS ANYMORE AND HAVE YOUR VOTE PARKED ON SOME RANDOM BS WAGON, JUST LIKE MISTYX IS DOING?