Mini 2284: The Thing Anonymous [Day 2]

[Fuchs~]

faking a guilty is one of those things i would love to do in this game because you can always abandon your slot after the fact. I also felt kind of susp of Palmer on day one to begin with - I think there is a good chance the convo between Palmer and Clark at beginning of day was badly done scum theatre

I hope Childs is town because Palmer needs shooting after I flip town.
For those who aren't me (I know I'm town) is it likely town cop investigates someone who is under suspicion from D1 and therefore a reasonable possibility of assimilating away? Compared with getting an inno on someone more likely to still be themselves today?

I'm VT by the way. Sorry Palmer if you were trying to fish for another town PR with this gambit.

Why did neither of these come with a Palmer vote?

[Palmer~]

For further consideration: getting an inno is worth so much less in this setup than getting a guilty. I can't soft my inno because my role (and possibly my alignment) will not be revealed when I die. And claiming it outright means my target might get assimilated, which renders the inno worthless after Today. So aiming for a guilty is worth the risk of scum assimilating away.

And that's all with the added fact that Windows wasn't even in

that bad

of a position. Only three people had ever voted there (me, Norris, and Nauls), and 2 of those were also suspected by the game.

Pedit: Yeah, that too. If my goal was to get Windows eliminated as scum, I'd do it in a way that doesn't involve locking the vig onto me.

[Palmer~]

Fuchs, I'm still open to talking with you about your scumread of me, if you want.

[Windows~]

On one hand, day 1 I town read windows and scum read palmer.

On the other hand, this seems like a really dumb play for scum palmer to make unless we are saying the scum team was exactly Lars+Palmer, and Lars scum was confident in their ability to impersonate Childs.

But even then, Windows does not feel like the go to target to fake a guilty on given how scum read he was Day 1.

They're just trying to rush a guilty through I think? In the knowledge Childs won't kill Palmer because Lars is Childs.

And actually taking out the vig by assimilating into them makes sense if they think they can rush the guilty through before Lars has to try too hard to pretend to be Childs.

It means after one of them is limmed tomorrow they're 6v1 on D4. That's not great, but consider that if one of them got limmed today they'd be 8v1 tomorrow. Or 7v1 if we directed the vig shot to kill one of them

[Windows~]

faking a guilty is one of those things i would love to do in this game because you can always abandon your slot after the fact. I also felt kind of susp of Palmer on day one to begin with - I think there is a good chance the convo between Palmer and Clark at beginning of day was badly done scum theatre

I hope Childs is town because Palmer needs shooting after I flip town.
For those who aren't me (I know I'm town) is it likely town cop investigates someone who is under suspicion from D1 and therefore a reasonable possibility of assimilating away? Compared with getting an inno on someone more likely to still be themselves today?

I'm VT by the way. Sorry Palmer if you were trying to fish for another town PR with this gambit.

Why did neither of these come with a Palmer vote?

I just saw all this and was scrambling to get my thoughts posted before I got limmed since I saw people throwing votes on me already.

I doubt I survive today, because I don't think it would be smart play from the rest of town - if the guilty was on someone other than me I'd be in favour of limming them first and Palmer second. Even if it's a scum gambit it's not one that gets them very far, so it's like giving up material to simplify into a won endgame in chess.

But yeah VOTE: Palmer obviously

[Fuchs~]

On one hand, day 1 I town read windows and scum read palmer.

On the other hand, this seems like a really dumb play for scum palmer to make unless we are saying the scum team was exactly Lars+Palmer, and Lars scum was confident in their ability to impersonate Childs.

But even then, Windows does not feel like the go to target to fake a guilty on given how scum read he was Day 1.

They're just trying to rush a guilty through I think? In the knowledge Childs won't kill Palmer because Lars is Childs.

And actually taking out the vig by assimilating into them makes sense if they think they can rush the guilty through before Lars has to try too hard to pretend to be Childs.

It means after one of them is limmed tomorrow they're 6v1 on D4. That's not great, but consider that if one of them got limmed today they'd be 8v1 tomorrow. Or 7v1 if we directed the vig shot to kill one of them

So, is your solve for this situation Palmer + Childs (who is actually Lars)?

[Palmer~]

623 is... interesting.

Which is also why I reacted this way to petapan's explanation.

If we believe Childs to be a novice vigilante and to still be human, I am not entirely opposed to burning me today, and then Windows being shot once I flip town.

I haven't yet processed Lars's death or the fact that Childs is still alive, though. On my reread during the Night, I wasn't feeling like Lars is scum.

Even though I think it's unlikely, I do want to confirm first that Childs hasn't been turned into one of them. And also for them to confirm that they are actually capable of shooting tonight, because it would be a tragedy if a scum assimilated away from the guilty.

And also for them to confirm that they are actually capable of shooting tonight,

Wouldn't aa newly-scum Childs say they were able to do this regardless?

Well, due to Childs' distinct posting style on Day 1, I am assuming we'll be able to recognize if they're newly-scum.

Look at me rushing the guilty through, guys.

[Windows~]

It's the only thing that makes sense to me.
Otherwise it just seems even worse of a gambit if Palmer gets shot tonight.

[Childs~]

Childs has some explaining to do.

Well, I was wrong, not much more to say about it than that.

[Windows~]

Also for those of you who believe Palmer how do you explain the nightkill? It would be pretty dumb of me to kill Lars since he was townreading me. Definitely more so than some others

[Childs~]

Even though I think it's unlikely, I do want to confirm first that Childs hasn't been turned into one of them. And also for them to confirm that they are actually capable of shooting tonight, because it would be a tragedy if a scum assimilated away from the guilty.

I have no Simple/Complex gates limiting me to shoot vanillas or PRs, and I am not odd-night, soyeah. I can shoot tonight!

Mind you, I'll only shoot if I have to, since, well. Not gonna hero vig when we have only one scum left in the game.

(Also at that point, we can probably just brute force a win. Technically we should be looking for assimilations every night, but if there's only one scum in the game, then it's not really as necessary.)

[Palmer~]

Mind you, I'll only shoot if I have to, since, well.

Well, in the current situation, I think you very well do have to shoot if the town misses Today.

Which... Even if I do get eliminated Today, then Windows is confirmed scum upon my green flip. Either:

- Childs is town, shoots Windows, Windows dies.
- Childs is scum, obviously cannot shoot anyone. There is only one death tomorrow, confirming both Windows and Childs as scum - with one of them having assimilated away, and the other being confirmed scum still in their own body.

Okay, no matter how you slice it, we end up with one dead scum. Very cool.

[Childs~]

In my mind, the entirety of Clarke's demise points to scum being fairly low-influence - they weren't able to divert the wagon away

Tbh with Windows and Clarke eliminated as Things, it should be fairly easy to find the third, but I don't think we should be trying today given the outcome of today and that tonight the last scum can try to assimilate.

We should look at the N2 kill and see if it looks like they assimilated on D3. If yes, then check for the differences in players; if no, then we can begin to hunt for the final scum.

[Garry~]

Not gonna hero vig when we have only one scum left in the game.

this is based of palmer's guilty, right?
because there's still two rn out there.
assimilation doesn't decrease number of scum

[Childs~]

Why did my mind go to "eliminate me first, shoot windows if green" instead the other way around.

Because you're town, duh.

[Childs~]

Yeah, seems prudent that Childs reveals if their shot is gated

Oh it has a gate but not any which would stop me from shooting tonight.

[Fuchs~]

Childs, which of the two do you think is better to kill today, and which is better to have you on it the first one flips green?

[Childs~]

And also for them to confirm that they are actually capable of shooting tonight,

Wouldn't aa newly-scum Childs say they were able to do this regardless?

I mean, yes, but they wouldn't know what gate to claim.

Only the real genuine article knows the gate I have.

Also, while anyone can fake me short-term, faking me long-term is not very easy.

[Childs~]

Well, due to Childs' distinct posting style on Day 1, I am assuming we'll be able to recognize if they're newly-scum.

I mean, you never know!

Someone

could

be stupid enough to try and fake being me.

I just know they haven't yet.

[Childs~]

I guess we will see if Childs is the same

I take it this should suffice.

also I am just going to claim that I am a one shot mailman who sent the message to MacReady to conftown myself for now.

Pretty sure that makes the game pretty much autowin, yeah?

MacReady conftown for now, you conftown for now, Palmers conftown for the result, and me with a very distinctive posting style who can shoot at any time.

That's 4/11 as town with only one scum left alive.

Scum if they jump into the conftown will have to fake being them;
Scum if they don't jump to the conftown will have to dodge eliminations in the remaining.

So, 3/9 conftown tomorrow;
2/7 conftown on D4;
1/5 conftown on D5, so not quite autowin but: very very close, yeah?

[Fuchs~]

Childs, how do you feel about the mechanical balance of your role and the existance of a 1 shot cop?

Does that feel balanced to you? If they are both in the game, what do you think that that means for the other PRs in the game?

How do they mesh with a mailman, which, in this set up is functionally an IC + Assimilation tester?

Do you think that cop+vig+mailman all fit in this game together? And if they are all in the game together, do you think that that is the full extent of our PRs?

[Fuchs~]

MacReady conftown for now

Blair's ability did not confirm MacReady. It just showed that he had not been assimilated Night 1, but did not tell us if he started as a Thing

[Childs~]

On one hand, day 1 I town read windows and scum read palmer.
On the other hand, this seems like a really dumb play for scum palmer to make unless we are saying the scum team was exactly Lars+Palmer, and Lars scum was confident in their ability to impersonate Childs.
But even then, Windows does not feel like the go to target to fake a guilty on given how scum read he was Day 1.

Pretty much, yeah.

I know they didn't assimilate me (tbh I'd love to see them try, but like: they realistically can't ), so like.

Palmer can't get away with this as scum and is probably just town, so.

When we're ready we can vote Windows.

[Fuchs~]

When we're ready we can vote Windows.

Absolutely no one vote windows or palmer until we finish talking with Childs long enough to be confident that they are still the same person

[Childs~]

Mind you, I'll only shoot if I have to, since, well.

Well, in the current situation, I think you very well do have to shoot if the town misses Today.

I mean,

yeah

, but I ain't voting you, I'm voting your guilty.

Since I can shoot if needed, and the guilty was a clear unambiguous 100% guaranteed guilty, and scum have no power roles: you wouldn't claim a guilty as scum. (That or you were really,

really

stupid and didn't think it through. But like, balance of probability, you're town.)

But if (when, actually) Windows flips scum, I should holster.

Hilarious as it'd be if the town had a near-perfect win with me shooting the last scum N2, I don't trust my read accuracy; my reads aren't worth shit.