Mini 2284: The Thing Anonymous [Day 2]

[Fuchs~]

Anyways. Done with doing that.

I think that this means that we kill Windows today, but still gonna think on it some

[Childs~]

I mean that I have no particular reason to believe that the gate is 1shot, you already lied about the existence of said gate.

Well I said it was a quite severe gate.

I needed to say that in case I was killed and people tried to setup spec under my fake ungated Novice Vig claim--it'd throw off setup spec for them to think that I was stronger than I am.

But I didn't want to give the exact gate on D1, for multiple reasons. Make it harder for scum to fakeclaim, both being me and also PRs.

I didn't know what the setup was like, but hiding the exact gate while specifying it was severe was the right play since it's part of why I believe the cop claim being oneshot.

I didn't specify which gate it was, but how many severe gates do you think there could be? Two-shot maybe. Simple, maybe. But there's only so many severe gates in existence.

...Also btw, it's very subtly so, but even before I confessed the lie of having an extra gate, I did

hint

at my extra gate.

Want me to quote my posts post-claim where I laid the

very very subtle

hints that I was actually gated beyond the Novice? 'Cause I did leave hints.

Spoiler: a few

If I live long enough to shoot

I asked for information on gates specifically because that combo in of itself

if entirely ungated

is borderline balanced for a 13p game. It opens up a combo that is incredibly stifling.

We can test a jailkeeper claim in this game because scum can't actually have a roleblocker but this risks letting Clark jump into a new body if she is a thing

I am aware of this risk.

(This risk was also referring to me being oneshot btw.)

I

agree

with the conclusion that my vig shot is anti-town to actually use.
I

agree

with it actually going through as being bad for the town.

So the best option isn't for me to make a shot with the intent of having it succeed--my best option is to make a shot with the explicit intend of having my night action fail.

Ergo, have the jailkeeper target me N1 and after that either me or share my target.
It's worth discussing the merit behind me confirming my vig power with a shot.
But my actual preference would be to attempt a vig shot and have the jailkeep cause it to fail.

(I don't trust my accuracy with a vig anyway. )

(Okay so a lot of these are a lot more subtle than I thought in hindsight.)

Even if the test confirms her as town, we still don't know whether the slot will actually

stay

town, because assimilation is possible.

Scum assimilating into Clark will be shown the moment my kill actually goes through during the night.

If I shoot and my target doesn't die,

my shot

failed due to a town PR--Clark, in this case.

Whenever that happens, Clark cannot be scum.
If my shot fails N2, Clark is town.
If my shot fails N3, Clark is town.
If my shot fails N4, Clark is town.
Every night my shot fails, Clark is confirmed to be town.

If Clark is alive and my shot ever succeeds--then Clark is confirmed to be scum.

And I am confirmed to be town the first night my shot succeeds.
If my shot succeeds N2, I could not have been scum on D1 or D2.
If my shot succeeds N4, I could not have been scum on D1, D2, D3, or D4.

So when the scum would break the loop above, they would by necessity run into

the issue of me confirming

they had done so.

(I realize this isn't clear, and could be me lying my ass off, but "my shot" was meant to hint that it was

singular

.

They can't kill me N1, and if they kill Clark, then I still get my shot off.

Here it's a lot more clear, tho. I left the hint that "I still get my shot off". 'My shot', not 'a shot'.

My shot implies singular shot; 'a shot' implies plural.

My usage of 'my shot' was a deliberate breadcrumb of having only one.

if they actually are a vig, I think that they should probably never fire.
this can be worked around by having childs announce their intended during the day

Why never fire when I can have a jailkeeper block me or target my target to effectively produce the same result?

As long as I announce my target, and as long as the jailkeeper is either on me or my target, my shot should never go through--effectively, never firing.

I was open to discussing the merits of letting my shot go through N2, but I still overall leaned towards the strategy of having my shot be perma-blocked and thus, perma-confing Clark as long as they live.

Here I was arguably blatant about it tbh.

I as the one with the vig shot

I agree that my shot going through is negative utility. So me effectively not using it by having it be "tied up" is a

good

thing.

Here was another blatant one. "the vig shot". THE vig shot. THE, as in, SINGULAR shot.

"not using IT", IT, as in, SINGULAR.

Admittedly, this isn't slam-dunk, but hey, I was trying to not be blatant about being oneshot so my 'crumbs were incredibly subtle.

one successful vig shot brings the game onto evens

. I'd need to shoot twice in order to bring the game to odds. And that doesn't actually give the town an extra mislim, it just moves two eliminations from the town into a single town player's hands.

The only way for a vig going through to give the town an extra elimination is with a killstopper.

So the existence of a vig means that the existence of a killstopper is guaranteed

I can explain further, but it would genuinely be antitown to hand scum a roadmap to what sorts of roles are in the game, I think you'd agree.

The vig having

my modifier

actually increases the odds of the jailkeeper being present, because

the more you alter the vig role

, the more the town roles need to be made more swingy/contrived/etc.

Okay here was the biggie tho.

"the more you alter the vig role" was meant as a

big fucking huge

hint that I wasn't being truthful about the only gate being Novice. Novice is a fairly simple modification to the vig role. Altering being more extensive = extra modifier, "the vig having my modifier" was my hint at it being a more severe one. And there was the reiteration of one vig shot getting us to evens.

(Might've left more after that but since I got at least a couple of the biggies, I've gotten bored with tracking down more.)

[Childs~]

This page has both somewhat alleviated my concern that childs is not childs, while simultaneously making me very frustrated with childs for their plan yesterday. Like, the attempt to force the town into a game plan, based on a lie, that only actually works if you read is right, and fucks the town over if it is wrong...

I mean, I get it, it was bad if the town actually listened to me.

Be glad they didn't, and then figure out what to do with the knowledge gained.

[Bennings~]

If I used it as much D1 as I would normally be inclined to, then on D2 someone would use it as much as I am.

It was specifically me holding back that made it easier for me to identify me as me today.

Just gotta say, this is a dumb plan.

If you make your self different, on purpose, day 1. And then don't do it day 2, the end result is not to make it EASIER to identify you on day 2.

Instead, that purposeful difference just... makes the days look different...

i thought the same but then thinking about it, guess it tracks overall with childs' modus operandi which to me seems like confidence and ideas but not full awareness of how these might come across to others? think it was apparent with the whole plan surrounding clarks

i've gathered that unless the team is exactly palmer/childs then palmer must be telling the truth, which confs them for the moment but not childs? that's where we're at rn?

i'd wager from what i said above and just the posting in general that childs is still themselves, so we're good on that front. doesn't clear from being scum but at least clears one slot from being assimiliated fmpov

[MacReady~]

Palmer, maybe you answered this, but why did you target Windows?

Also why do we think scum killed Lars (assuming they did and he disn't assimilate)

[Bennings~]

assuming town!lars it would have to do more with reads i'd assume? unless they were thinking PR but i wasn't getting those vibes

[Blair~]

I don't trust my read accuracy; my reads aren't worth shit.

ngl this doesn't sound like you from day one

[MacReady~]

Also for those of you who believe Palmer how do you explain the nightkill? It would be pretty dumb of me to kill Lars since he was townreading me. Definitely more so than some others

Why do you think Lars died?

[Blair~]

Do you really want me to setup spec and hand the final scum a guide of what to claim?

lol what scum would listen to your setup spec this is wild

[Windows~]

Assuming unreliable cops are too bastard to be in this setup it's definitely 50-50 between me and Palmer.
Palmer Childs is a possible scumteam but me Childs isn't as likely.
Childs is town if Palmer is town.

Trying my best to be objective here: it's best for us to lim Palmer first. Because then if Palmer is scum we've killed scum. Whereas if Palmer is town Childs is town and can vig me. Either way, one more scum is dead by D3.
Whereas if we lim me first and Palmer is scum with Childs, we go into D3 without any more scum dead.

[Fuchs~]

I don't trust my read accuracy; my reads aren't worth shit.

ngl this doesn't sound like you from day one

I get the feeling that Childs values their own set up spec more then they value their reads, and most of what they did yesterday was based on set up spec, so :shrug:

[Blair~]

But that doesn't stop me from having absolute fury if I actually AM right.

There'd be HELL to pay today if Clarke had flipped town.

And there will be HELL to pay tomorrow if you manage to eliminate Palmer.

this is a game it's ok to be wrong

[Fuchs~]

Assuming unreliable cops are too bastard to be in this setup it's definitely 50-50 between me and Palmer.
Palmer Childs is a possible scumteam but me Childs isn't as likely.
Childs is town if Palmer is town.

Trying my best to be objective here: it's best for us to lim Palmer first. Because then if Palmer is scum we've killed scum. Whereas if Palmer is town Childs is town and can vig me. Either way, one more scum is dead by D3.
Whereas if we lim me first and Palmer is scum with Childs, we go into D3 without any more scum dead.

This feels like you copy and pasted my argument, reworded it, and forgot to credit me.

Plagiarism is a crime Windows.

[Blair~]

The cop is guaranteed to be real.

how is the cop guranteed to be real?

[Blair~]

This page has both somewhat alleviated my concern that childs is not childs, while simultaneously making me very frustrated with childs for their plan yesterday. Like, the attempt to force the town into a game plan, based on a lie, that only actually works if you read is right, and fucks the town over if it is wrong...

While leaving the possibility of misinformation for the town, because if they did die their pm does not flip to clear up where they lied...

But also, this page is the first page that actually reads in a way that makes me fairly confident that they are the same person.

i'm here right now

[Blair~]

I kind of agree with MacReady about Palmer looking much townier than Windows and ready to yeet him

[Windows~]

Also for those of you who believe Palmer how do you explain the nightkill? It would be pretty dumb of me to kill Lars since he was townreading me. Definitely more so than some others

Why do you think Lars died?

People who believe Palmer is town believe I'm scum. So I'm assuming they believe Lars was killed because if I were scum with Lars I'd have been more likely to assimilate than Lars.

[Blair~]

if I were scum with Lars I'd have been more likely to assimilate than Lars.

based on what?

[MacReady~]

Why do you, Windows, think Lars died?
Given that from your POV that you're town

[Fuchs~]

if I don't write a super cool diary entry tomorrow plz kill me

Blair, I know that you are confirmed town for the day, but if you being confirmed town means I dont get a super cool diary entry, then I will be sad

HURT: Blair

[Windows~]

Assuming unreliable cops are too bastard to be in this setup it's definitely 50-50 between me and Palmer.
Palmer Childs is a possible scumteam but me Childs isn't as likely.
Childs is town if Palmer is town.

Trying my best to be objective here: it's best for us to lim Palmer first. Because then if Palmer is scum we've killed scum. Whereas if Palmer is town Childs is town and can vig me. Either way, one more scum is dead by D3.
Whereas if we lim me first and Palmer is scum with Childs, we go into D3 without any more scum dead.

This feels like you copy and pasted my argument, reworded it, and forgot to credit me.

Plagiarism is a crime Windows.

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

(Yes I'm aware you said much the same earlier but I feel like that was several pages ago and I wanted to re-state the situation. I know I'm not scum with Childs so I don't want us to risk the less optimal route where a Palmer-Childs team can sneak by for longer.)

[Nauls~]

Based off of what?

Based off the fact that they have been consistently putting out posts that exactly match the tone I'd expect them to have, and they've also been doing it real-time and with content that obviously isn't pre-prepared?

To be fair, it doesn't take much for someone to fake what they feel to be me.

It's just that if they weren't actually me, they wouldn't be able to pull off the all of me that I am. There's only one me, and only I can do me properly. Because it's me, natch.

This is the best thing I’ve read in ages

Also I’ve been townreading Palmer and scumreading Windows since day 1 so my position there’s pretty clear

[Nauls~]

I did also notice the exact same thing when catching up fwiw, but I think Childs is being Childs enough that it doesn’t really matter

[Windows~]

Why do you, Windows, think Lars died?
Given that from your POV that you're town

Honestly my brain today has been caught up in the "why did scum!Palmer fakeclaim with a fake guilty on me?" puzzle so I haven't thought as much about the "Why did Lars die?" puzzle.
Off the top of my head, in maybe this order:

Scum thought Lars might be a power role and/or
Scum didn't like his reads and/or
Scum wanted to avoid protective targets and/or
Scum wanted to make town drown in confusion and wifom and/or
The assimilation power sounded so cool Lars just couldn't resist trying it out and/or
Scum didn't like Lars's avatar

[Blair~]

Journal Entry#2

November 11th 2022: McMurdo Station, Antarctica

I'll never forget his eyes as he stared at me. The tears, the begging, the pleading.

After we locked him in the cage he banged on it piteously screaming that he was human. that we were

wrong

. that he had a wife and kids waiting for him in Canada.

The decision had already been made - to falter now would be to plunge into the darkness and surrender to

them

. At least that's what we told ourselves as we began spraying him with the flamethrowers.

The smell of burning flesh. His screaming reaching new heights as his skin began to burn under the heat. I had to force myself to keep looking. To

see

if I had condemned an innocent man.

As his body withered away under the flames,

it

rushed out at us; faster than the eye could see it slammed into bars with force that bent them in a dozen places. Too late..

It screamed at us as it thrashed against the cage, the last death struggles of a dying monster. I could see murderous intent in its eyes. It hated us so much.

We burned it for another hour after it stopped moving just to make sure. Exhausted - we cleaned up the ashes and made our way back to our bunks.

None of us would sleep well that night.