Mini 692: Boost Mafia (Game Over!)

[Elmo]

Day 1, Vote Count #20

Huntress (5) <- sthar8, Electra, TDC, eldarad, Green Crayons
Jahudo (3) <- Incognito, iLord, Guardian
Incognito (2) <- Jahudo, Raging Rabbit
eldarad <- Huntress

Not voting: RandomGem.

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch. The

deadline

is Thursday, 18 December 2008, 06:00 UTC, which is 2 days, 12 hours, and 8 minutes from this post. sthar8 has been prodded. RandomGem's prod has not been picked up.

[Elmo]

And by four, I mean five. =(

[Raging Rabbit]

So it essentialy boils down to a choice between Jahudo and Huntress. I'm leaning more towards Jahudo right now, but would rather do a more thorough recap on the cases against both before I vote, but the many tests I have this weak mean I'll have trouble finding time. And don't hammer Huntress yet, I think she's like at -1.

[Jahudo]

From the context of the posts, I thought everyone was satisfied with a Jahudo lynch.

It sounded more like alot of people wanted to specifically read my post history. I'd like to know how you got the conclusions that they agreed with something while they were reading it.

but in the absence of a deadline, I need to finish my reread on Jahudo first.

read huntress.
read eldarad
read jahudo
(finish incognito read)?

Another read into the respective jahudo and Huntress threads of conversation is required

And don't hammer Huntress yet, I think she's like at -1.

L-2 but all the same.

I'll try and do a quick Huntress read today but I'm more interested in how her wagon grew so quickly.

[sthar8]

Sorry, weekend was significantly longer than expected. I'll have something up soon.

[Incognito]

Checking in, I still much prefer a Jahudo-lynch over a Huntress-lynch. I'm not sure why Huntress took such a long time to get into this game, but my read of Crazy at least was that of disinterested town. That said, now that Huntress is at L-2 and the deadline is right there, she should certainly be thinking about role claiming really, really soon.

[Huntress]

Well, I've re-read Jahudo and I still don't see the case against him. I think the discomfort I had about him came from the way he seemed to be trying to direct others, including me, as to where to look and was keeping a fairly neutral stance. This isn't necessarily scummy but it could be. It may be just a matter of play-style but I would need to do a meta on him for that and I don't have time at the moment but I might be able to manage it tomorrow afternoon. I've read iLord's and Incognito's cases on him but I don't find them convincing. I couldn't find Guardian's case if there was one.

So I'd rather not vote Jahudo today. I'd still much prefer to stick to Eldarad or if necessary switch to Incognito (yes, I know I haven't written up my case on him yet).

I know I've still got to reply to Eldarad's last post, and others, but in the meantime where does everyone stand on him? (mainly addressing those who haven't said in the two or three pages).

Incognito has asked me to claim. I'd rather avoid doing so unless absolutely necessary but if I will if I need to.

[eldarad]

On the Jahudo lynch - I wouldn't support a Jahudo lynch in normal circumstances. If there was a choice between a Jahudo lynch and no lynch I would lynch Jahudo...
But given the current situation I don't see how that could happen (I'd have to unvote Huntress - who currently has more votes and, it seems, more suspicion - in order to vote Jahudo.). I much prefer lynching Huntress.

Incognito has asked me to claim. I'd rather avoid doing so unless absolutely necessary but if I will if I need to.

It's <48 hours before deadline. I don't see how you think waiting until you claim is going to help the town at all.

[Huntress]

It's <48 hours before deadline. I don't see how you think waiting until you claim is going to help the town at all.

Because I'm still hoping it won't prove necessary. The only ones asking me to claim so far are my two top suspects. I'd rather wait until I hear what others have to say than give further information at the request of those I think most likely to be scum.

[TDC]

Of the two two vote wagons I prefer Huntress.

Why is that? Looking back through your posts I can't see any reason for this decision.

I'm still pretty neutral on Incognito. Crazy was null for me, but you've done a few things that bugged me. (Mostly, the whole post-boost discussion of Electra). That said, I think that your unwillingness to join what seems to be the only competing wagon to yours is a mild pro-town sign and I'd prefer a Jahudo lynch over a you-lynch, anyway.

unvote; vote: Jahudo

I'm willing to switch back if Jahudo turns out not be able to reach 7 votes in time.

[iLord]

It sounded more like alot of people wanted to specifically read my post history. I'd like to know how you got the conclusions that they agreed with something while they were reading it.

I dunno, I thought I read a lot of agreement.

I will lynch Eldarad or Jahudo.

I really don't want to lynch Huntress today. I will lynch her over no lynch, though.

[Raging Rabbit]

I skimmed both targets.

The main issue with Jahudo is him being too soft and preffering to stick to the sidelines, especially in the early game where little of what he said had any implication that caused him to in any way stick out, and all in all there's a general feeling he's out to avoid the spotlight. His more recent posting gives me more of a town vibe, though a lot of his case on Incog does seem to be kinda leeching of aspects of my own case against Incog, and it's weird how he sorta drops suspicion and then attacks Incog again for less convincing reasons. Still, he defends himself pretty well. What still disturbes me is that he still doesn't seem to be putting too much effort into scumhunting.

Crazy played quite differently from his townie-self, though that can be explained as a result of his lack of time. The big summary post reads quite scummy, but other posts of his give a mild town vibe. Huntress makes a very weak case on Electra, which is also redundant since she was already boosted. The attack on eldarad isn't at all convincing either imo. Despite my disagreeing with most of her points, I believe the way she's willing to stick her neck out to support them - especially staying on eldarad and not voting Jahudo - is a moderately strong towntell. Unwilingness to claim is noted. All in all I have my doubts about her, but am far from settled enough to want her lynched.

I'm not that keen on a Jahudo lynch either, but he's preferable to Huntress and could also provide me valuable info in my suspicion of Incog, since I don't think they can be scum together.

Unvote, vote Jahudo

.

[Incognito]

Huntress, I didn't want you claiming right at this very second either. I've just seen too many instances where a person (whether town or scum) waits until the very last minute to claim thereby throwing everyone into a clusterfuck. And with no lynch at no majority, I think it's extremely important that a claim gets in at the right time so that an appropriate decision could be made about the lynch.

[Guardian]

WoW is addictive, apologies.

I spent 7-8 minutes skimming Huntress, Jahudo, eldarad.

Wagon on Huntress is terrible.
Wagon on Jahudo is meh.
Wagon on eldarad is meh-.

I'll keep my vote on Jahudo.

PS: Huntress/Jahudo: in my personal opinion, claims are overrated, but do what you will...

Why do I think they are? Scum claim power role like 95% of the time, so believing claims leads townies to being lynched and scum living on. But whatever.

[Incognito]

Summary:Everyone wagon eldarad please. PS: you're welcome.

PPS, Circle of suspicious people:
Eldarad, Incognito, Jahudo, iLord, TDC in rough order.

pps: eldarad is still scum, amirite?

Wagon on Jahudo is meh.
Wagon on eldarad is meh-.

I'm sorry but why aren't we lynching Guardian again?

[Jahudo]

Summary:Everyone wagon eldarad please. PS: you're welcome.

pps: eldarad is still scum, amirite?

I'm sorry but why aren't we lynching Guardian again?

I asked him about that attitude of his and his answer in post 600 didn't feel right. There doesn't look to be too much time for everyone to go over his today but it should be something to keep in mind for the future.

Also, I've went back over Huntress posts and my own opinion of her is still leaning on the side of pro-town. As far as switching my vote, eldarad I'm reading town. RandomGem never looked good but I think he's flaked. I didn't like Mana's limited posts but GC has looked better. Actually, I probably would support Guardian second after Incognito.

[Huntress]

Because you are saying that my pushing of Skillit is scummy, yet someone who is guaranteed to share Skillit's alignment is saying the same thing.

The fact that Green Crayons disowned Skillet's theory doesn't mean he saw it as scummy. See the last two paragraphs of post 559 for his comments.

But you actively avoided the sthar boostwagon. That doesn't sound like someone you think is probable town.

I avoided it because I was less sure about him than I was about others.

You are happy that my stated opinion as to why I boosted Electra is sincerely held?

No. I don't know whether it was or wasn't. We won't know that until your status is revealed.

I didn't use it in my case against you.

Lies.

A brief summary of my reasons for voting Elderad:

1) His too-quick boost of Electra.

Because it seemed too quick.

He boosted her in his very first post for making an early move but in his next post he said, "But also note that I was trying to start a boostwagon too.", from which I infered that this was originally partly a gambit.

In the same post he gives what is apparently his only reason for supporting Electra, "And, as Electra said, for a scum to make that leap of faith about the existence or otherwise of boostable vanilla townies, or whatever, is pause for thought."

His only other comment on Electra is in post 234 where he says, "You have a point that Electra has kept a low profile since her initial entrance. Her last post where she says "early game is as boring for scum as it gets" is a bit worrying, isn't it, given her apparent boredom with the game...". But despite it being "a bit worrying", he is still content to leave his boost on her.

This quote is your reasoning as to why (1) indicates that I am scum.

So my boost was too quick. I already explained my reasoning for the quick boost. That means that you do not think my reason (the leap of faith) is sufficient for a boostvote.

You are misinterpreting this. It's right that I did not think it was sufficient for such a quick boostvote. BUT NOWHERE did I say that you were scummy for the 'leap of faith' itself.

Yet you also accept that my opinion is sincerely held.

No. See my comment on this above.

Explain how this is indicative of scum.

The fact that you are trying to put it across that I accepted something I didn't is indeed indicative of scum.

You also think I should have unboosted because of #234, so again I need to ask whether you believe whether I sincerely hold the opinion that Electra's claim is townie because of the leap of faith.
If you accept that I do hold that opinion sincerely then how can you make the judgement that the slight element of doubt that may have been introduced because of Electra's choice of words (about scum being bored when she herself was showing signs of boredom) outweighs the leap of faith?

See my comment on this above.

I don't think 'bored players' or analysis value are sufficient reasons.

But you are also saying, as part of (1), that when I didn't unboost Electra because she appeared to be bored, that was scummy of me.
I'm explaining that Electra being bored is not an indicator that Electra is not town.
You appear to be disagreeing with me.

I meant that your statement that "a number of players appeared to be bored with the game at that time" was not a good reason to continue with the boost, but I think I may have missed the point you were making there, so thanks for explaining that here. Which players were you refering to, by the way?

Where did I claim it wasn't a scum tell against Crazy?

Awesome.
Is Crazy a townie?

Yes, but townies sometimes do things that can be scum tells too.

"Massive QFT to everything that eldarad has said so far" covers:
massclaim isn't a breaking strategy
boosting Electra
boostwagons can give info so let's use them right away
voting Skillit for reaching

Note that you are now using two of those things as reasons why I am scum. I don't get the impression from 151 that Crazy was

reducing

his agreement with me. I understand how you have a strong incentive to so do.

Crazy didn't boost Electra
He didn't join any boostwagons
He didn't vote Skillet for reaching. He used his own reasons for voting.

Just typing "QFT" does not equal sheeping.

Sheeping as I understand it means following another player's suspicions, reasons and votes. Crazy did none of this.

---------------

That said, now that Huntress is at L-2 and the deadline is right there, she should certainly be thinking about role claiming really, really soon.

Huntress, I didn't want you claiming right at this very second either.

So what do you call "really, really soon"? This looks like backtracking.

[Incognito]

Huntress:

Up until this last page or two, your posting pattern in this game has been sporadic at best. I wrote my post suggesting you claim real, real soon at 2 days 2 hours before the deadline if I remember correctly. I actually didn't even expect you to respond to that within two hours time; taking your posting pattern into consideration, I thought you'd be more likely to return to the thread like a day before the deadline actually, which is about the time I would consider an L-2 claim in a 'No Lynch' at majority game to be acceptable.

[Jahudo]

Huntress:

I thought you'd be more likely to return to the thread like a day before the deadline actually, which is about the time I would consider an L-2 claim in a 'No Lynch' at majority game to be acceptable.

Actually I'm at L-2 now and if people want a claim then it will probably be later today. I'm doing some traveling tomorrow and can't guarantee a post in the last 24 hours before deadline. So basically last chance for questions and clarifications on me.

I'm for lynching Incog > Guardian > TDC (for the quick bandwagon jump) closely followed by anyone that's not me

[Electra]

I don't think Jahudo is more likely to be scum than Huntress, therefore I am unwilling to move to his bandwagon for the time being. (also Huntress is the larger wagon, etc, etc) Also, did Huntress claim? I will be okay with a Jahudo lynch if that's the only option.

I find both of their "I don't find the other suspicious, I find this random person suspicious" to be sketchy. Depending on what Jahudo claims, I may be more likely to move to him, since he's implied certain things about his role already.

@ Jahudo - I don't think Huntress's wagon grew quickly, I remember it stagnating at some number and then getting a few more votes recently, but if you can point out that her wagon grew in a way that would resemble a wagon on a townie, I would probably be willing to switch my vote to you.

[Huntress]

Huntress:

Up until this last page or two, your posting pattern in this game has been sporadic at best. I wrote my post suggesting you claim real, real soon at 2 days 2 hours before the deadline if I remember correctly. I actually didn't even expect you to respond to that within two hours time; taking your posting pattern into consideration, I thought you'd be more likely to return to the thread like a day before the deadline actually, which is about the time I would consider an L-2 claim in a 'No Lynch' at majority game to be acceptable.

My posting's been sporadic because I've been spending my available time reading, then posting when I've got something to say or when I'm replying to posts. I'm in the middle of replying to Green Crayons post at the moment but as I rarely get uninterrupted time to concentrate until the rest of the household is asleep it can take a bit of time to get a long post together. (I've been interrupted twice while just writing this.) I can assure you though, I am on and reading two or three times a day, sometimes more.

[eldarad]

No. I don't know whether it was or wasn't. We won't know that until your status is revealed.

I was asking for your OPINION.
Given that you are voting for me - and this is one of the 4 stated reasons you have given for your vote - I think it is reasonable that you tell the town whether YOU think I am lying about my reasons for boosting Electra.

Nice how you avoided answering the question that causes your case to unravel. By not answering you manage to respond to the rest of my post with "N/A"

Do you think - in your opinion - that my stated reason for boosting Electra is sincerely held?

Then you can answer all the questions that you ignored on the first attempt.

Yes, but townies sometimes do things that can be scum tells too.

Heh. So, given that you know that a townie can do that thing, explain how it is a scumtell against me.

~~~
I'll only be able to log on once more before deadline and I'm now even less willing than before to unvote Huntress. I'll see what the situation is when I log on next, but I really think Huntress is our best bet.

[Guardian]

Summary:Everyone wagon eldarad please. PS: you're welcome.

PPS, Circle of suspicious people:
Eldarad, Incognito, Jahudo, iLord, TDC in rough order.

pps: eldarad is still scum, amirite?

Wagon on Jahudo is meh.
Wagon on eldarad is meh-.

I'm sorry but why aren't we lynching Guardian again?

thx for straw-maning me by taking those posts out of context.

I went back and spent about half an hour total reading huntress jahudo and eldarad and changed my mind. eldarad's craplogic was not a trend as I had suspected it would be, and I found his play overall honestly trying to discern people's alignments. Jahudo just seemed average, there was nothing overwhelming either way.

it's terribly unfair of Incog to attack me for not reading well, and then when I read the game more attack me for changing my opinion based on reading

[sthar8]

OK, here goes...

Jahudo's early play was characterized by lack of explicit opinions except in the case of Incog-SL, which makes me nervous. It seems that he avoids committing to anything until pressed to do so. By contrast, he's agreed with many of my opinions, and his questions seem to be heading in generally protown directions. At first, I assumed that the bias in his questions indicated his opinion on each issue, but some of the implied opinions seem contradictory to me. I think that agreeing with his opinions on some issues, most notably iLord and Crazy, might be biasing me in his favor, especially since the rest of my read on him is decidedly neutral.

I can't find anything in the last few pages that contradicts this read or suggests another reason to lynch him. I really don't like how fast this wagon grew. That said, I will support a Jahudo lynch over a no lynch, but only under extreme time crunch.

While I agree with guardian that it is unfair to attack him for improving his play, I'm concerned by the fact that he was willing to push cases based on poor or nonexistant reads.

I'll be back later today with more on Huntress.

[iLord]

We are in an extreme time crunch.

sthar8, your vote to Jahudo if you will.

Electra, yours as well.

Jahudo's at L-2 right now.

Eldarad and Huntress need to consider Jahudo over no lynch, especially Huntress since there's little way that Eldarad's getting lynched today.

Jahudo, you should most definitely vote yourself to avoid getting us a no lynch, as well as claiming.

I think only around 28 hours left - we need to hurry!