Mini 692: Boost Mafia (Game Over!)

[eldarad]

This is also a potential good method of making sure already boosted scum are boosted again, so if eldarad turns scum I'll be looking at sthar and electra.

Right. I'm calling the scumteam of Jahudo + Iceman + either sthar or eldarad, more likely sthar.

In quote 1 you are saying that if I am scum then one of {sthar, Electra} are scum with me.
In quote 2 you are saying that either sthar or I are scum.
What changed?

But it still appears that you're using Huntress' power role claim as further reason to throw suspicion her way, which I dislike. Huntress being scum requires her to have claimed her role going head to head with her godfather's soft power claim, and also a scum booster makes little sense if she can just boost the same guy her team NK's. I think the claim definitely goes towards clearing her, and you trying to make it look the other way around is scummy.

A scum booster makes complete sense as it is a power that is not useful to the mafia, but can be used to confirm the person who has that power. Allowing the scum to kill the person they boost is fine too - at some point Huntress will have to come through and boost someone who survives the Night, or else we'll start asking questions, won't we?
I'm approaching this from the point of view that the benefit of being confirmed exceeds the drawback of boosting a townie. It may be that the mafia decided that this wasn't the case last Night.

So, in my opinion, Huntress' role claim makes it more likely she is mafia. There are other factors - such as the difference between Jahudo and Huntress' claims - that suggest that she probably isn't mafia.
Holding a different opinion to you isn't scummy.

It doesn't. Trying to test the 3rd-boost-is-useless thing enables the scum to just NK the guy the third time around, creating a WIFOM trap we have no way of solving. It is therefore not practical to test it, which shouldn't make you think it is true - electra-scum could have easily figured our optimal stragegy is not to try and test it, and therefore felt safe making it up.

I didn't say testing it was easy. But then, there is no rush - we may end up deciding to boost Incog three times during the game because we want him to get an extra vig bullet. Although, at the same time, I am under no illusions as to the life expectancy of our claimed vig.
If testing the providence of Electra's information becomes vital to the success of the town, then we do have a few fairly extreme options available to us, should we need them.

But at the heart of it all, if Electra is scum - and is therefore trying to minimise what she has to tell us, why tell us

two

things?

[Raging Rabbit]

In quote 1 you are saying that if I am scum then one of {sthar, Electra} are scum with me.
In quote 2 you are saying that either sthar or I are scum.
What changed?

I reread the game. electra I think is more likely town, you could've just been buddying up to her or intentionally leaving a loophole for later attacks. But I guess if she dies before you for whatever reason and turns out scum you're still the most likely partner.

But at the heart of it all, if Electra is scum - and is therefore trying to minimise what she has to tell us, why tell us two things?

This is an extreme case of WIFOM.

Mod

, can we get some prods on people?

[Elmo]

Day 2, Vote Count #2 - Lynching

Huntress <- sthar8
sthar8 <- Incognito
icemanE <- Raging Rabbit

Not voting: Electra, Green Crayons, TDC, Huntress, eldarad, icemanE.

Boost Count

Incognito (3) <- eldarad, Raging Rabbit, Green Crayons
TDC (2) <- Raging Rabbit, sthar8
eldarad <- TDC
Raging Rabbit <- Incognito

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch/boost.

Mod

, can we get some prods on people?

Yeah, I was going to do it yesterday, but something came up. The following has been sent to everyone who hasn't posted in the last 48 hours (Electra, TDC, Incognito, sthar8, icemanE):

Subject: Mini 692: Boost Mafia (Mass Prod)
Hi, I hope you all had a good Christmas, but I think now's about the time to move back towards normal activity. Consider this half prod, half notification; as usual, please respond in thread. Thanks!

Consider this notification if you weren't sent the PM.

[eldarad]

This is an extreme case of WIFOM.

So?

And given that you've just expressed the opinion that Electra is town, presumably you agree with me.

[TDC]

I fully intended to claim today no matter what in the hopes of getting boosted and possibly gaining another bullet so that I could shoot again Night 2.

Fair enough. I suppose you agree with your next shot (if any) being directed by the town?

--

@ TDC: What are your reasons for choosing to boost Eldarad?

His reaction to Electra's claim, mainly.

--

A scum booster makes complete sense as it is a power that is not useful to the mafia, but can be used to confirm the person who has that power.

How do you figure that a scum booster would not be useful to the mafia? Do you think a scum booster would be unable to boost fellow scum? Or that scum can't be boosted?

[Raging Rabbit]

This is an extreme case of WIFOM.

So?

And given that you've just expressed the opinion that Electra is town, presumably you agree with me.

So any conclusion we try to draw from it is worthless.

I somewhat agree with your conclusion, most certainly not with your reasoning.

[Incognito]

Has it really been that long since I've posted here?

@TDC:

Yes.

I'm looking forward to seeing something,

anything

from icemanE.

[icemanE]

I'm really sorry. I must have accidentally unwatched this game because I completely forgot it existed until I got a prod. I'll be posting something worthwhile very soon.

[icemanE]

Elderad's case look like bullcrap.

In quote 1 you are saying that if I am scum then one of {sthar, Electra} are scum with me.
In quote 2 you are saying that either sthar or I are scum.
What changed?

This is constructed to make something look suspicious that really isn't. Opinions change over time and one of the things that bugs me most is when people attempt to make a change of thinking into a scumtell. If it's something extraordinary, like if someone were to declare something a policy of their's and then violate it in their next post, that's one thing, but this isn't that.

If I were to pick between RR being town and elderad being town at the moment, I'd be leaning RR as town. However, a crap case isn't a scumtell.

[Raging Rabbit]

Is that all you have to say?

[Green Crayons]

iceman, just exactly how far did you get before you forgot this game and how much did you not catch up on before you posted?

[eldarad]

So any conclusion we try to draw from it is worthless.

I somewhat agree with your conclusion, most certainly not with your reasoning.

vote Raging Rabbit

If you think that Electra is town then you must have considered the key things about Electra's current position. That is:
- that her early claim is genuine, and
- her information is genuine.

If either of those two tests fail, then Electra must be scum.
Her early claim seems genuine (leap of faith, etc) but may not be, and the way we will be able to tell whether the claim is genuine over the long haul is by assessing the accuracy and provenence of the information Electra provides.
So, in deciding whether Electra is town or scum, you must have made an assessment of the information Electra has provided. For example:
- whether the information contradicts or confirms something in your role PM
- whether the information contradicts or confirms something you know about the game or the setup through some other means
- whether the type, amount and nature of the information tallies with your gut feeling as to what kind of information the mod might give to such a power role
- whether the mechanics of Electra's power confirms or contradicts the mechanics of other claimed power roles in the game

All of those things necessarily include an element of uncertainty. Some of them include elements of WIFOM. Yet you must have considered them all in some shape or form in order to arrive at a conclusion about Electra's probable alignment.

You have just disagreed with me because you think it is the right thing to say, not because you believe what you are saying to be true.

This is constructed to make something look suspicious that really isn't. Opinions change over time and one of the things that bugs me most is when people attempt to make a change of thinking into a scumtell. If it's something extraordinary, like if someone were to declare something a policy of their's and then violate it in their next post, that's one thing, but this isn't that.

Those two quotes were about 18 hours apart. I think it is reasonable to ask what changed between those two posts.

If I were to pick between RR being town and elderad being town at the moment, I'd be leaning RR as town. However, a crap case isn't a scumtell.

Why do you feel that it is necessary to pick between the two?

How do you figure that a scum booster would not be useful to the mafia? Do you think a scum booster would be unable to boost fellow scum? Or that scum can't be boosted?

I think the benefit of being confirmed by a townie would exceed the benefit of boosting a mafia teammate. I also think that boosting a mafia buddy would carry a rather large potential drawback of creating a link between them.
It may even be the case that Huntress-scum boosted her mafia buddy and claimed to have boosted iLord precisely because of this drawback.
I guess I also assumed that the town suffers when it boosts scum because it loses a power as much as because the scum gain a power.

[Huntress]

My re-read of Jahudo hasn't changed much apart from lessening my suspicion of Incognito. I hope to have my comments on Eldarad up tomorrow now that my RL routine is back to normal.

[Green Crayons]

My re-read of Jahudo hasn't changed much apart from lessening my suspicion of Incognito.

I'm sorry, what did this reread entail?

[Huntress]

Just checking in. (For the second time. My first post a few hours ago was lost.)

I'm sorry, what did this reread entail?

What do you mean?

[Green Crayons]

I didn't catch your initial impressions of Jahundo that didn't change apart from a lessening of suspicion of Incognito. Where might I be able to find them?

I think I originally phrased that poorly.

[icemanE]

Those two quotes were about 18 hours apart. I think it is reasonable to ask what changed between those two posts.

In my opinion, 18 hours is enough time to rethink something.

Why do you feel that it is necessary to pick between the two?

I say that because I feel Elderad's attacks were scummy because they seemed stretched.

[Elmo]

Posting to say that everything seems fine after the somewhat bumpy move, and that I love you all <3

[TDC]

How do you figure that a scum booster would not be useful to the mafia? Do you think a scum booster would be unable to boost fellow scum? Or that scum can't be boosted?

I think the benefit of being confirmed by a townie would exceed the benefit of boosting a mafia teammate. I also think that boosting a mafia buddy would carry a rather large potential drawback of creating a link between them.
It may even be the case that Huntress-scum boosted her mafia buddy and claimed to have boosted iLord precisely because of this drawback.
I guess I also assumed that the town suffers when it boosts scum because it loses a power as much as because the scum gain a power.

The problem with this is that claiming to have boosted the dead guy does not confirm her at all.
If she actually is a scum booster, then her not boosting someone who'd live to tell is testament that boosting a buddy is more valuable than getting her ability confirmed (or rather that scum think this is the case).

--

Boost: Incognito

[Green Crayons]

Boost #2: Electra

.

I need to reread the thread to refresh my memory of the different accusations/discussions going on, but I'm confident with this second boost as I'm pretty sure more information is helpful. Either it will be truthful and help us generally, or it will be false and it will help us lynch the bad lying scum (Electra).

[TDC]

Speaking of Electra.. I think she could use a prod.
Still hasn't replied to my question whether she actually needs to be boosted again to receive new information or not.

[Elmo]

Electra and sthar8 have not picked up their massprods. I'm going to give them a bit longer due to the site move.

[eldarad]

/post

Just checking in after the downtime.

[Raging Rabbit]

Bah, post deleted.

All of those things necessarily include an element of uncertainty. Some of them include elements of WIFOM. Yet you must have considered them all in some shape or form in order to arrive at a conclusion about Electra's probable alignment.

Yes, those are elements of WIFOM. Which is why I tried to relay on them as little as I could, and based my read (which I'm by no means sure of) mostly on gut, some of her attempts at scumhunting, and a solid town read from her first post. You relayed on a WIFOM argument about the info being testable, which makes no sense to boot. Our conclusions being similar doesn't mean I can't call foul on your reasoning. Voting me for this is possibly more far fetched than your "order of town reads" attack on iLord, and looks to me like a form of the recently discussed preemtive OMGUS.

And I think I recall electra being replaced in another game prior to the move, so it's probably a good idea to start looking for replacement.

I want Iceman to post substantial thoughts about what went on in the game. No doing so is just making him look worse and worse.

[icemanE]

boost: RR