722: sthar claims secret double voter.
744: Incog claims osv. Doesn't know what happens if he is boosted. (For those who haven't played with me before, claims do NOT lower a person's score. I do, obviously, take full account in my reasoning, but the numerical score is a measure of behavioural scumtells and, thus, claims/lurking/etc. are beyond the scope of my numbers)
756: I don't agree with incog's argument about shtar's claim being suspect. I am naturally a vanilla, but with a role PM which says that I gain a power on being boosted. Shtar's claim, unless I am misunderstanding him, is of the same nature, albeit with a very different boost-power. Shtar also even said he had narrowed his potential power down to two options. I'd like some clarification from X as to what this means (X has the role PM, so hopefully he can work out what Shtar would have thought), but the fact that Shtar's statement suggests a power wasn't specifically identified also matches my own role PM (which, again, says I can learn information, but doesn't specify the nature of that information)
757: Shtar makes a very bad wifom argument here - that his claimed ability makes him more likely town because he has lost the benefit of surprise from it if he were scum. Also, claims that double-voting is a powerful scum ability that wouldn't fit with "what we know of the setup" - which is what, exactly? (+1)
786: I don't like Eldarad's vote for RR here. Eldar's statement that Electra giving two bits of info makes her more likely town is, as RR said, "extreme wifom". WHilst it is true that the whole "leap of faith" thing is also wifom, there's an important risk vs reward consideration involved here (which the blunt label of "wifom" overlooks) - claiming early as electra did, and in the manner that electra did, is a very risky move for scum. Whilst hyposcum electra could have done it for the purpose of appearing pro-town, that possible benefit is, I would argue, very much offset by the huge risks involved for scum attempting such a gambit. Moreover, I can't see why this one point is voteworthy. (+2)
813: <I arrive>
862: X is convinced Eldar is town because his towndar (Why do I get the impression that "towndar" is just "gut" in a cheap suit) told him so :sigh:
879: Hmm...X says shtar's claim was only a partial one. That's certainly not the impression I got. In 878, Incog quotes part of sthar's claim post [the bit incog quotes is in blue font below] but I think he misses what is most important [which I have bolded]:
sthar8 wrote:
I think that the best use of my role is to claim now and alleviate any suspicions that my new power might be a kill.
If you recall, yesterday I noted that I did not believe I was the best boost for the day. This was because I had narrowed my
potential powers
down to two options, and I didn't think either of them is particularly helpful to us in the early game, except as a way to potentially confirm me.
I'm a double voter. I have a second, secret vote that I PM to elmo in order to use. From the wording of my boost PM, I believe that once I use this vote, I will not retain the power into the following days. If there are no objections, I'd like to use this today in order to confirm myself. I'd also like to get it out of the way, because it could potentially be devastatingly swingy in a LYLO situation, and I don't want the pressure should it come to that.
Potential powers...He also said, in a later post:
Sthar8 wrote: So if you're saying you only got a double vote because you were boosted, how are you a power role?
Maybe we define power roles differently. I define them as having an ability above and beyond the standard town mechanics for a game. How do you define it?
[/quote]
and then:
Sthar8 wrote: My role PM gave nonspecific qualities of my character, and implied that boosting me would amplify these charactersitics into a power.
Scum would likely not know this, and if they did their qualities would necessarily be different from town ones. An early claim would force scum to commit to "vanilla," "vanilla with boost," or "normal PR." If they claim vanilla, and no townie has a "vanilla without boost" role, then they are caught. If we have true vanilla townies, we narrow the pool significantly, and know who our safe lynches are right away. If they claim "vanilla with boost," they are forced to lie, and making scum lie is the easiest way to catch them, especially since they have no standard example of how "vanilla with boost" works for town. I would not have discounted scum assuming that "boostees" would be explicitly informed of their powers, before electra elaborated on her claim. If they claim "normal PR," they are stuck in whatever role they chose, we gain information if they continue to live, and we might catch scum through counterclaim. I originally thought that there would be no traditional power roles in this game, obviously that assumption was wrong, and the strategy is weakened considerably. I guessed that if my speculation was correct, other players might come to the same conclusion and support the idea of massclaim, giving us a good chance of catching at least one scum on D1.
There's no explicit statement of "I have no powers except for my boost-power", but the way he describes it (which is similar to my own role PM, as I mentioned earlier) suggests he has nothing else.
921: X concludes that RR's play seems largely pro-town. The kicking point X makes is a valid argument, but I think that RR"s recent crtiicism of X is legit. Overall, therefore, the vote is unjustified and seems to be largely OMGUS, with some weak reasoning behind it. (+2)
930: Incog's explanation of his role PM fits with my own, and what sthar said.
936: X explains the role PM thing as being about charisma and leadership
943: Good point from RR - sthar claimed to have "narrowed it down"; he didn't go anywhere near as specific as X now has.
963: Incog's response to me on the smear campaign issue: The trouble here is that your argument essentially rests on an appeal to "what you've seen". Speaking from theory, and not from observation, there is absolutely no reason why an apparent "smear campaign" should only come from scum, rather than town who happens to find nobody protown (yours truly standing as an example of this
). Your argument presumes that a player intentionally makes their reads universally scummy when, varying game-to-game of course, such reads can simply arise from the nature of people's plays.
964: Eldarad: People who post most tend to end up with higher scores on my system. Taking TDC versus Incog, for instance, I have much less confidence in TDC being at 50 than I do at incog being at 57. IOW, the less a person posts, the more I attach a "margin of error" to my read of them. What I've seen of TDC is not scummy, but his low posting rate undermines that. WHereas, I have serious problems with a lot of Incog's posts. The system punishes people who post more, but I try to overcome that (I haven't been able to quantify the whole "margin of error" thing, however)
This answer pretty strongly implies that the boost-power is his only power.
2) Green Crayons (replacing Mana_Ku who replaced Skillit) - 55
3) Raging Rabbit - 53
5) TDC - 50
6) Huntress (replacing Crazy) - 56
7) Incognito - 57
8) eldarad - 53
9) Xtoxm (replacing sthar8) - 53
12) icemanE (replacing RandomGem who replaced fuzzylightning) - 51
FINALLY!
Something else: I've noticed recently that my replacement readups tend to produce lower scores for people than I get from ranking people as I play. The numbers I've produced here fit that pattern of behaviour (I think it is because, in reading, I don't experience things as closely and, thus, don't get to reason or question in the way I normally would - along with the natural tendency to miss small details when reading).
I'm going to try something new here: to adjust the numbers based on where I think they would be if I had played along throughout - to smooth out the replacement problem
2) Green Crayons (replacing Mana_Ku who replaced Skillit) - 60
3) Raging Rabbit - 55
5) TDC - 50
6) Huntress (replacing Crazy) - 65
7) Incognito - 70
8) eldarad - 55
9) Xtoxm (replacing sthar8) - 55
12) icemanE (replacing RandomGem who replaced fuzzylightning) - 50
