[OLD] Open Setup Ideas and Discussion

[mith]

I don't think the Death Miller Cop thing unbreaks that setup. Cop should still come out D1; Mafia still have the option of countering, but IIRC the correct strategy at that point is to keep both alive and let them "investigate". The Mafia still confirms the real Cop if they kill him. (Someone coming up Mafia on a NK = Cop in that setup.)

[mith]

(I find it slightly peculiar that people are trying to "fix" original-newbie without, apparently, giving much though to whether their fix actually helps the problem.)

[mykonian]

Can you explain how you get 1/9, I don't get it.

sorry, yes, this is wrong. very wrong.

(chance that vig hits)(chance that mafia hits vig)
(2/3)*(1/2)=(1/3)

only in case the cop is lynched day 1, this becomes 1/9, as (previous)(chance in lylo)=(1/3)(1/3).

If vig is lynched day 1, cop has 2/3 chance of checking someone that is not killed. Mafia will probably cc, 1/2 chance of winning. That means (1/3)(1/2)=(1/6). Most likely, scum will easily win this game. Even if my numbers aren't close to right.

[PokerFace]

I think I'll help you out empking

Disgrace to NK-Imune Miller Vigs

2 Mafia Outlaws
1 Cop
5 Vanillas
1 NK Imune Death Miller vig

Oman 6P

1 Cop
3 Vanillas
1 NK Imune Miller Vig
1 NK Imune Framer SK
(Can Frame and Kill Each night. He Auto wins if only him and vig are alive)

Texas Justice with Outlaw Fix

9 One-Shot Vigs
3 Mafia Outlaws

You are a

Mafia Outlaw

. Your fellow Mafia Outlaws are XXXX and YYYY. Each night everyone alive on your faction is able to talk strategy and choose to kill one player. Because you are Outlaws and not just normal Goons, you may also block any one player as a group each night. Your faction can control and use both actions each night as long as at least one member is alive. The person you block and the person you kill can be the same person or could be 2 completly different people. You win when the town is eliminated or nothing can be done to prevent this. Good Luck.

You guys like this idea?
Think title and new role pm idea are good?
Does entire town need to be eliminated or just outnumbered by the mafia?

BUMP!

[Empking]

I think I'll help you out empking

Disgrace to NK-Imune Miller Vigs

2 Mafia Outlaws
1 Cop
5 Vanillas
1 NK Imune Death Miller vig

Second

- Was the Death part on purpose?

Oman 6P

1 Cop
3 Vanillas
1 NK Imune Miller Vig
1 NK Imune Framer SK
(Can Frame and Kill Each night. He Auto wins if only him and vig are alive)

Its not normal due to not having a mafia group. (sad face)

8-Player Lyncher

2 Mafia

1 Lyncher

1 Cop (Maia only)
0-1 Doc
3-4 Townies

If lynchee is NK'd, lyncher (if still alive) becomes town.

Lynchee can be any player other than the lyncher

[PokerFace]

wait mafia

group

Disgrace to NK-Imune Miller Vigs

2 Mafia Outlaws
1 Cop
5 Vanillas
1 NK Imune Death Miller vig
(Any Mafioso Auto wins if left alone with vig)

Oman F11

1 Mafia Tough Guy - (nk imune mafioso)
1 Mafia Tailor
1 Cop
5 Vanillas
1 NK Imune Miller Vig
(Any Mafioso Auto wins if left alone with vig)

Fixed*

All games I have nomed so far were all day start.

The death miller part was on purpose so that scum could counter claim the viog and possibly cause all players to be lynched since the vig is revealed as scum.

And also Oman is on an impersonate Thok trip. So combine these wonder twins and you get:
Disgrace to nk-imune miller vig

Texas Justice with Outlaw Fix

9 One-Shot Vigs
3 Mafia Outlaws

You are a

Mafia Outlaw

. Your fellow Mafia Outlaws are XXXX and YYYY. Each night everyone alive on your faction is able to talk strategy and choose to kill one player. Because you are Outlaws and not just normal Goons, you may also block any one player as a group each night. Your faction can control and use both actions each night as long as at least one member is alive. The person you block and the person you kill can be the same person or could be 2 completly different people. You win when you outnumber or equal the remaining town. Good Luck.

You guys like this idea?
Think title and new role pm idea are good?
Does entire town need to be eliminated or just outnumbered by the mafia?

BUMP!

[mith]

Per discussion in Site Ideas, I am splitting Open Setup discussion into an "ideas" thread (this one) and a "certification" thread (here). Please read that thread for more details.

[shaft.ed]

I don't think the Death Miller Cop thing unbreaks that setup. Cop should still come out D1; Mafia still have the option of countering, but IIRC the correct strategy at that point is to keep both alive and let them "investigate". The Mafia still confirms the real Cop if they kill him. (Someone coming up Mafia on a NK = Cop in that setup.)

But if you have two claimed death miller cops at some point the town has to lynch one or else be end gamed. The mafia NK'ing him would be a rather stupid tactic. The game essentially comes down to 1) town lynching the first scum. 2) picking right between the claimed DMC's.

[mith]

I would have to go through it again, but I believe the breaking strategy for the newbie setup has the town lynching the other Mafia first (in the case that the Mafia counters; if there's only one Cop claim, that's the Cop, end of story). The death miller addition has no effect if the other Mafia is already dead - the town knows whether or not they have lynched Mafia or Cop based on whether or not the game is over.

[PokerFace]

So games that are nomed here then go to certification stages or what exactly?

I really like and think the 3 recent games I mentioned should be discussed and or run pending my ineperience with setup design

[shaft.ed]

Nominate Texas Justice with Outlaws

[mith]

Hm, I may be remembering wrong. It's been a long time since I worked out those strategies, and I don't think I wrote them up anywhere. I'll have to do some more thinking about it, but it may be that the correct strategy was to lynch a claimed Cop.

The plan I had in mind was something like this:

1. Cop and Mafia both claim Cop.
2. Doc claims Doc; Mafia can't counter, because then you have three confirmed Townies, and it's just a matter of having three chances to win two coinflips (75%).
3. Now, during N1, assume that the Doc always protects one of the claimed Cops (I'm pretty sure this is optimal, for reasons to be discussed). If the Mafia adopts a strategy of always killing the real Cop, then if the Doc chooses wrong, the Mafia will win 2/3 of the time (the fake Cop is lynched, of course, but then we are left with a 3 person endgame after the Doc is kill N2). However, if the Doc chooses correctly, the Mafia loses

if the town knows that the Mafia will always kill the Cop

(real Cop is confirmed by protection, and will have two investigations with which to find the Mafia hiding amongst the Townies). So, always killing the Cop would give a 1/3 expectation for this situation, and another 75% for the Town overall. Thus, the correct strategy is either to always kill the Doc or to have a mixed strategy of sometimes killing the Cop, sometimes the Doc (and perhaps sometimes not killing).
4. If we assume the real Cop has survived going into D2, we now have two claimed investigations - one real and one fake. While these investigations obviously cannot guarantee the town will lynch scum, they may allow us to eliminate someone (if one Cop claims Mafia on player A, and the other claims Innocent on player B, player B is definitely innocent), or they may allow us to link Cops to claims (if one Cop claims Mafia on player A, and the other claims Mafia on player B, then the pairing is either Cop1/B or Cop2/A), or both. It would be an interesting problem to work out the optimal claim strategy (almost certainly mixed) for the fake Cop.

In any case, while I am less confident that the town has the same breaking strategy as in original-newbie, I am still pretty convinced that the town can play *a* breaking strategy that yields better guaranteed results than they would get otherwise.

[Caboose]

Jungle Republic

1 Seer
3 Mafia (no NK)
2 Werewolves (has an NK)
6 Townies

^I found this in the wiki. I would /in for this if we ran it.

[Empking]

TJWAOT: I still think its broken the same way as normal Texas is, it just means that it goes to a three man end game.

Actually, what is town's win percentage if they just attack the person below them? Or the odds of it going into a three man end game?

[shaft.ed]

If you pair and shoot you end up with:

All scum paired with town:
2 live townies (one confirmed innocent), 1 live scum (50% win ratio)

Two scum paired with eachother:
Scum win

the breaking strategy will now slightly favor scum and is thus not a breaking strategy.

Circle shoots are just as bad depending on scum line up.

[mith]

the breaking strategy will now slightly favor scum and is thus not a breaking strategy.

Be careful with this statement... this isn't entirely true. A breaking strategy is one which is:

a. Optimal (maximizing the town's chances)
b. "Boring" (in the sense that it takes away scumhunting and becomes formulaic).

An optimal strategy may not increase the town's chances above 50%; it's quite possible that any other strategy or lack of strategy that they take is even worse. If the best thing the town can do is something that ruins the game, it's not a good setup.

(I'm not saying that's the case ehre, but you might want to consider what the odds are for the town if they don't follow the potential breaking strategy.)

[shaft.ed]

good point

[PokerFace]

<<asks the

stupid

question since he is no math wiz

What are the towns chances if they don't follow it?

[mith]

It's not a stupid question; it's probably a quite difficult one, too.

[shaft.ed]

Yes, I'm not about to pretend I can calculate that one.

Mith, back to the Death Miller Cop. I think one of the things you have to ask is why does the scum need to kill the Cop N1. The answer to me is that because if they just let him fester he can clear too many innocents.

In a traditional game with scum countering cop.

If scum let him live N1 they go to day two (assuming partner not lynched day one) with:
2v5. Cop likely has an innocent on a townie. If town lynches from the cop pool this will lead to:
-Lynch actual Cop: an effective guilty on the fake claimed cop + one confirmed innocent.
Day 3 results in the lynch of the fake cop. You go to a 1v2 end game looking for the other goon.
End result ~50% chance town win.
-Lynch fake Cop: Real cop is now confirmed innocent. Player he confirmed in the night is also innocent. Doc can protect cop if still alive meaning one more innocent or guilty wins the game for town.
End result ~100% chance town win.

This whole scenario is avoided if you run the set up with a situation where the lynching for the cop results in an ambiguous situation.

So in Death Miller, it looks like the town will get two chances to lynch the first goon and win with 100% chance. If they lynch the first goon on the third lynch they have a coin flip between the cop claims, but with a whole lot of information to base that decision on.

[mith]

I think you've got a couple extra townies in there somewhere. D2 is lynch-or-lose (if the town doesn't hit scum D1).

I think you're missing my point. There are three options when the scum counters the cop claim:

1. Town lynches a claimed Cop immediately.
2. Town lets them both live, and scum tries to kill the real Cop N1.
3. Town lets them both live, and scum kills (or tries to kill) the Doctor.
(or some mixed strategy involving 2 and 3)

Only in the first case does the Death Miller Cop make a difference. It may be that this is the correct play in original newbie (and not in the DM setup, in which case the DM has made a difference, though there still may be a breaking strategy), but if not, the DM can't make a difference, whether the Mafia should try to kill the Cop or otherwise. Once the town has decided to let both Cop claims live until they get the partner, the DM has no effect on the setup.

---

To correct myself, the correct play is not for the Doctor to come out immediately in the case of both Cops coming out; the correct play is to choose a lynch victim D1, and then if that victim is the Doctor, they claim and you choose someone else. The Mafia still can't claim Doctor (or they are immediately countered and Town wins 75%), and this way the Doctor remains hidden N1 80% of the time; thus, if the Mafia's strategy is not to kill the Cop N1, trying to hit the Doctor isn't nearly as effective (as it reduces the pool of potential suspects).

[shaft.ed]

I think Seraph's proposal is a 2v7 not a 2v5

[mith]

Oh, I guess I only saw the nomination and not the proposal. 2v7 is definitely broken in the manner I described; just leave the Cop claims alive, and try to lynch the partner. There's just too much time for investigations, too many chances for the town to lynch.

[PokerFace]

The way shaft.ed said good point made me thing he considered it easy and figured out. Yay that was wrong

The massive shot spree favors the mafia or a 1 scum in 3 situation. 1 in 3 is fairly even since random who is left in most causes and pending day 1, cases on players to find or make look scummy will be scarce. Scum might have slight edge again.

somebody has to calculate if town has a better chance of winning by playing the game out as normal or by causing a massive shot spree. Anyone got a giant claculator, would guess and check running the setup TJWO be out of the question?

[popsofctown]

Nom jungle republic