Mini 739 ~ Mafia Jailbreak, Game Over

[Huntress]

I'll reply to 483 and 484 a bit later, short of time at the moment, but I just wanted to say that in view of the counterclaim I'm sticking with my vote on RC. The only other player I'd be happy voting for today would be SpyreX who does not seem to be in the running.

RC's breadcrumb, quoted in 495, looks very multi-purpose to me. How does it point to jailer rather than almost any other role?

I shall be around and able to check in most of the evening.

[bionicchop2]

RE: breadcrumb - That is an extremely blanket statement that could cover pretty much any role and does not signify intent to claim jailkeeper at a later date. In that same post, the words watcher and jailer are both bolded, which looks an awful lot like a double breadcrumb attempt to leave an option for claiming a variety of roles.

On top of this, when RC claimed to have breadcrumbed in post 484, he said:

My, ahem, "breadcrumbing" may have began to spiral out of control somewhere around, oh, the third or fourth page? XD

What he ended up quoting was on page 5. I don't know about anybody else, but the times I have chosen to breadcrumb in a game, I was very aware of where I left them and they were much clearer once revealed. I don't see posting for 4 pages and then leaving a hint that he might act differently if he had a role and assumed a SK as breadcrumbing.

Add to this the assumptive statement "as some of you have undoubtedly suspected" implying that his play was so obvious for a jailer. As a jailer, I don't see any of his play as standard jailer play. I also know that a SK possibility has zero effect on my upcoming night decision, so the whole concept of a jailer really needing to consider a SK is a smokescreen.

[bionicchop2]

Just got out of the car after a grueling 23 straight hours, and hey look a claim from RC that makes perfect sense. Can we get this Rhinox lynch going for reals now?

Weren't you voting Rhinox over RC purely because you thought he was a scum power role, but that both were scum? What happened to that?

Fits in with what I said a few days ago:

This is just straight, gut fueled opinion talking here, but I really think it would be a mistake to lynch RC over Rhinox today.

Catching up on some stuff I didn't get to read too closely over vacation and I caught this. Extremely scummy comment IMO. You push that they are both scum and are pushing which of the 2 is more important scum to lynch.

How is this scummy? Who would benefit from a statement like this? I think scum would.

Scum A stating 2 players are scummy. Both could be town, 1 could be scum, most likely both are not. If a partner is in the 2, scum would cast suspicion on both (cover them self by screaming their partner is scum) and nudge everybody in the direction of the person who isn't scum. Of course, the WIFOMy reverse could be used by scum. Nudge towards your partner so if anybody picks up on it, they lynch the other one.

I don't think I can gather anything about Rhinox or RC based off your statement, but I think it bumps you up the scummy scale a bit.

[Vi]

Vote Count:

RedCoyote (L-1) ~ Huntress, bionicchop2, Rishi, iamausername, popsofctown, SpyreX

Rhinox (L-3) ~ Jahudo, OhGodMyLife, CF Riot, RedCoyote
popsofctown (L-6) ~

SpyreX,

Moriarty147,

RedCoyote

OhGodMyLife (L-6) ~ Rhinox

Minimum (L-7)

[size=0]bionicchop2 - 0 | Huntress - 1 | iamausername - 0 - PROD1 11 PROD2 3 | Jahudo - 0 | CF Riot - 1 | Moriarty147 - 0 | OhGodMyLife - 1 - PROD1 18 PROD2 4 | popsofctown - 0 | RedCoyote - 0 | Rhinox - 1 | Rishi - 0 | SpyreX - 0 PROD1 10[/size]

Final Deadline: Thursday, Feb 26 2009

(7.5 hours remain)

-----

No, the day's not over yet.

[Rhinox]

unvote; vote: RedCoyote

Can't promise to be back before deadline, so as promised, there's the hammer.

[bionicchop2]

If we are correct on RC and I happen to die tonight, please look very closely at Jahudo and OGML tomorrow. If RC is town, it changes things, but those 2 would still be close to the top of my list. They both listed RC as what appeared to be their 2nd suspects throughout the game, but never once voted him. Then when pops-lynch possibility increased, Jahudo moved Pops up to 2nd. OGML pushed both RC/Rhinox scum, but kept steering towards lynching Rhinox as more important scum. Keeping scum in the top of your rankings while trying not to get them lynched is very scummy.

I think the watcher/doc possibilities will keep me safe tonight - even if only through WIFOM, but I felt like I should put that out there.

[Vi]

Final Vote Count:

RedCoyote ~ Huntress, bionicchop2, Rishi, iamausername, popsofctown, SpyreX, Rhinox

Rhinox (L-3) ~ Jahudo, OhGodMyLife, CF Riot, RedCoyote
popsofctown (L-6) ~ Moriarty147

OhGodMyLife (L-7) ~

Rhinox

Minimum (L-7)

[size=0]bionicchop2 - 0 | Huntress - 1 | iamausername - 0 - PROD1 11 PROD2 3 | Jahudo - 0 | CF Riot - 1 | Moriarty147 - 0 | OhGodMyLife - 1 - PROD1 18 PROD2 4 | popsofctown - 0 | RedCoyote - 0 | Rhinox - 1 | Rishi - 0 | SpyreX - 0 PROD1 10[/size]

-----

Officer Rhinox had had enough. "Shaddap. We know you're up with the Mob, and you know you're up with the Mob. That makes it unanimous."

It's not polite to point, especially with guns, but Rhinox musta missed that day in charm school. R.C. found himself admiring Smith and Wesson's expert handiwork on the revolver's barrel while he stared it down. Too bad for him the gun won the staring contest.

--

RedCoyote,

Townie Jailer

, Capwned D1

--

-----

'Hope you got the pun in the lynch flavor. Night will last for no less than 72 hours, because you need a break from Mafia/this game

If you do not have a Night Action, please send me a PM anyway.

Failure to do so will result in a prod immediately after the next Day begins.

[Vi]

Sometime in the middle of the night, Officer Rishi woke up startled-like. With the business goin' on at the prison, yeah, these things happen, probably to everybody. An' then there was that one guy who woulda killed to 'a had a time like that. Instead he spent the rainy night decoratin' the walls with his insides.

--Rhinox,

Vanilla Townie,

Made the Concern of the Janitor N1--

-----

~Day 2 Start~

Vote Count:

Minimum (L-6)

Not Voting:

bionicchop2, Huntress, iamausername, Jahudo, CF Riot, Moriarty147, OhGodMyLife, popsofctown, Rishi, SpyreX
[size=0]bionicchop2 - 0 | Huntress - 0 | iamausername - 0 | Jahudo - 0 | CF Riot - 0 | Moriarty147 - 3 PROD1 0 | OhGodMyLife - 0 | popsofctown - 0 | Rishi - 3 PROD1 0 | SpyreX - 0[/size]

First Deadline Review: Sunday, March 15 2009
Current Deadline: Thursday, March 19 2009

-----

Moriarty147 and Rishi did not send PMs overnight and are being prodded. They have two days to respond before I seek their replacements as per Rule 14.

[SpyreX]

Ohh hay look at that.

[Moriarty147]

Just to say that I got my prod, but will be too busy to post anything until Tuesday. Sorry.

[OhGodMyLife]

That kill don't make no sense.

I have to recalibrate my scumdar.

[Rhinox]

f

[popsofctown]

oh dear, Rhinox gives our scumhunting an f....

posts later, i have HW

[popsofctown]

oh Vi.. isn't the info of who didn't send night actions TMI? Do you choose automatic targets for people who fail to send in a night choice? What about for roles that have only positive effects like watcher?

No PM, no action.

Certain parties watching the game from outside have informed me that that was a bad mod-move. It won't happen again. ~Vi

[Rishi]

That kill don't make no sense.

I have to recalibrate my scumdar.

Here.

I agree with OGML. I had to double-check the setup to make sure there was no vig in the game.

Unless there are two scumgroups in the game? Was that an attempt at a cross-kill?

[popsofctown]

I don't think Rhinox seemed so scummy that you would be looking for cross killage. More likely the mafia decided Rhinox's townieness would increase over time, especially after the correct read on RC, but was not at a state to get him targetted for watcher, jailkeeper, or doctor today.

[popsofctown]

Aha!

What's an even better explanation for odd killage like this is scum avoiding dead-ending. When you yourself, the scum, has publicly fingered someone as town, you know it will be hard to lynch that person since they can't help that lynch along.

I couldn't really think of anyone who had rhinox fingered as town, except, just now, Spyrex!, who seems scummy anyway. Spyrex's tunneling on me has been queer, and i don't like how he suggested early in the game that we should be lurker hunting and then does nothing of the kind (scumpartners?). And the fact that multiple people have said "oh spyrex is scummy" in passing without saying why (maybe that was just one person but it's still fishy) makes me suspicious of him, quite possibly they are scumpartners. Worst-case-scenario their townie guts are agreeing with me.

vote: Spyrex

We should get a night action claim from BC, should we not?

[bionicchop2]

Vi has given us too much information. While moriarty and Rishi can be scum, they were not responsible for last night's death. Same goes for OGML who was jailed last night - unless I was blocked.

In theory this leaves 7 suspects for last night's kill (including myself). As I said, the others can all be scum, but did not kill last night.

[popsofctown]

Vi, quit giving bionicchop uber safe night-choice-claims!

[Jahudo]

I agree that knowing who didn't send in a night PM is TMI but it should help us out today by narrowing down who performed the kill, but that shouldn’t make us rule out Moriarty or Rishi as scum either. Having only 1 night kill leads me to think one scum faction but there are a lot of ways to explain why we could have an SK too, but we might not know that for a while.

What's an even better explanation for odd killage like this is scum avoiding dead-ending. When you yourself, the scum, has publicly fingered someone as town, you know it will be hard to lynch that person since they can't help that lynch along.

That sounds like a good reason to NK someone that many people labeled as scum. And Spyrex did staunchly stick to his read of Rhinox as town, making it hard for him to join a lynch bait wagon the next day without new Rhinox scumtells that Rhino may or may not make. However, this also looks like the obvious path and I think NKs sometimes use occam's razor as a red herring to connect the victim with an obvious target.

-------
Since we now know that the two strongest wagons were on town, it seems likely that the scum didn’t think they were in any danger yesterday. So they might have played a little more relaxed and nonchalant about whom they’d end up lynching. Right now I'm thinking about that group of Huntress, pops and Rishi.

I have to recalibrate my scumdar.

I hope you didn’t start printing up T-shirts of "RC + Rhinox = Scumpairs forever."

[SpyreX]

Aha!

What's an even better explanation for odd killage like this is scum avoiding dead-ending. When you yourself, the scum, has publicly fingered someone as town, you know it will be hard to lynch that person since they can't help that lynch along.

I couldn't really think of anyone who had rhinox fingered as town, except, just now, Spyrex!, who seems scummy anyway. Spyrex's tunneling on me has been queer, and i don't like how he suggested early in the game that we should be lurker hunting and then does nothing of the kind (scumpartners?). And the fact that multiple people have said "oh spyrex is scummy" in passing without saying why (maybe that was just one person but it's still fishy) makes me suspicious of him, quite possibly they are scumpartners. Worst-case-scenario their townie guts are agreeing with me.

vote: Spyrex

We should get a night action claim from BC, should we not?

I... wow.

Yes I am scum that called both of the lynches yesterday as junk, defended them, then quickly turned around and killed Rhinox. Furthermore, the people calling me suspicious (for the record I think that is you and Huntress) are the ones I, in fact, have said are scum are really in fact my scumbuddies (note here that you indicted yourself as being scum).

CAUGHT ME!

Vote: Pops

You can not be town. It is impossible.

On to more important things though:

1.) Bio.
I really don't know what to make of this. Bio's play has not been scummy, however I really have a hard time buying two Jailers. But, why would a scum out themselves day 1 to bag a jailer? It doesn't add up.

2.) Vi's note on Mo and Rishi.
Chances are, yes, that both of these two are town because of this mess. However, do not accept it as a 100% truth. They could still be scum that simply went awol and a partner sent in a kill. Or we have an SK and the mafia didn't take actions, etc, etc.

Since we now know that the two strongest wagons were on town, it seems likely that the scum didn’t think they were in any danger yesterday. So they might have played a little more relaxed and nonchalant about whom they’d end up lynching. Right now I'm thinking about that group of Huntress, pops and Rishi.

<3. Although you should modify it to pops, pops, pops, Huntress and Rishi.

[CF Riot]

Vi, quit giving bionicchop uber safe night-choice-claims!

Expand on this. I don't see what you mean.

I agree with Jahudo. This is pretty much just speculation, but wouldn't it also be to Spyre-scum's benefit

not

to kill Rhinox, and leave the possibility of a Rhinox wagon that he didn't have to be a part of? I mean, don't scum generally like to stay off of mislynches if they can? Pops's whole 516 just looks like rationalizing an excuse to vote someone who's putting pressure on him.

The RC/BC two jailer issue is weird, but given the context I'm weary of calling BC scum based on that alone. In

jailbreak

mafia, I definitely would not count out the possibility of multiple jailers.

Pops is my next top suspect. I don't like the waffling and fluff from yesterday, and I don't like the NK speculation that lead to his vote today. I need to do a reread now with the info that Rhinox is town, but until then I feel like this is a good place to start.

Vote: Pops

[bionicchop2]

I agree with Jahudo. This is pretty much just speculation, but wouldn't it also be to Spyre-scum's benefit

not

to kill Rhinox, and leave the possibility of a Rhinox wagon that he didn't have to be a part of? I mean, don't scum generally like to stay off of mislynches if they can?

Why would it benefit Spyrex to not kill Rhinox if he was scum? I could certainly see a play made to gain the trust of the town by confirming both his reads were correct. With that in his pocket, he could easily lead a mislynch today and not look scummy for it.

I don't think Spyrex has acted in a particularly scummy manner, so I wouldn't jump to vote him on the sole reason that the night kill would help him as scum. I definitely wouldn't go the other direction though and say that Spyrex-scum would leave Rhinox alive for an easy mislynch.

=====

My suspects #2-4 after RC were - in order - Moriarty, Rishi, OGML. This puts me down in the bottom/middle of my list for suspects that are viable lynch options for me today. I still feel fairly strong in my read on Pops. I won't debate those voting him today, but I will probably not be voting him unless there are no other options.

As I said, I think Spyrex has played fairly town, so I don't see myself voting him ATM. That leaves Jahudo, CF and Huntress for me to look at closely.

[CF Riot]

Because Rhinox was some super lynch bait, and as scum you don't

have

to vote someone for them to get lynched. I personally think

anyone

in this game as scum would have benefited from leaving Rhinox alive, not just SpyreX. I haven't yet figured out who would benefit from him dying. The "he won't get protected" argument doesn't seem like enough. The Spy, "Hey my town reads were right, so you should follow me today," argument doesn't seem likely either, because he could've just as easily let the town lynch Rhinox then made that same play on D3.

None of this is to say that Spyre can't be scum, it's just that I don't see how you can conclude Spyre = scum based off it, when it just as easily points the other way.

[Huntress]

What's an even better explanation for odd killage like this is scum avoiding dead-ending. When you yourself, the scum, has publicly fingered someone as town, you know it will be hard to lynch that person since they can't help that lynch along.

Good point.

And the fact that multiple people have said "oh spyrex is scummy" in passing without saying why (maybe that was just one person but it's still fishy) makes me suspicious of him, quite possibly they are scumpartners. Worst-case-scenario their townie guts are agreeing with me.

Would this make you more suspicious of SpyreX or of the people who said it?

Vi has given us too much information. While moriarty and Rishi can be scum, they were not responsible for last night's death. Same goes for OGML who was jailed last night - unless I was blocked.

I'm assuming from this that BC actually did block OGML. It would be risky to claim it if OGML wasn't blocked last night. But did he do it as jailer or roleblocker? And I can't see a townie roleblocker counter-claiming a jailer.

In theory this leaves 7 suspects for last night's kill (including myself). As I said, the others can all be scum, but did not kill last night.

Unless you have a scum-buddy who blocked OGML I'm willing to accept that you did not make the kill.

1.) Bio.
I really don't know what to make of this. Bio's play has not been scummy, however I really have a hard time buying two Jailers. But, why would a scum out themselves day 1 to bag a jailer? It doesn't add up.

It's a risky play but if believed could be a good cover for a roleblocker. But I agree that Bio's play has not seemed scummy so far.

2.) Vi's note on Mo and Rishi.
Chances are, yes, that both of these two are town because of this mess. However, do not accept it as a 100% truth. They could still be scum that simply went awol and a partner sent in a kill. Or we have an SK and the mafia didn't take actions, etc, etc.

Or if one or both had a shared night action with a second or third player they might have thought that Vi's PM request didn't apply to them. In other words it's a null tell rather than a town tell.

I'm going to do a re-read but for the moment I'm sticking with my highest remaining suspect from day one.

vote: SpyreX