Mini 739 ~ Mafia Jailbreak, Game Over

[SpyreX]

One or more, i wasn't sure. Huntress is one.

I couldn't really think of anyone who had rhinox fingered as town, except, just now, Spyrex!, who seems scummy anyway. Spyrex's tunneling on me has been queer, and i don't like how he suggested early in the game that we should be lurker hunting and then does nothing of the kind (scumpartners?).

And the fact that multiple people have said "oh spyrex is scummy" in passing without saying why

(maybe that was just one person but it's still fishy) makes me suspicious of him, quite possibly they are scumpartners.

Worst-case-scenario their townie guts are agreeing with me.

Even with the (), that is built around multiple people. Even if it is one, it sill doesn't make sense, but.

So heartwarming. Because even if you don't contribute at all, you're contributing less than pops the fluff poster. Even if you also use WIFOM in your night action interpretation, you didn't do it as wrong as pops did. Even if you also voted for RC, it's pops fault because he's doing it wrong.

We saw the spotlight shine on two town players all of day 1. Maybe letting the spotlight fall where it may is not a good plan here guys.

Sup AtE variant deus: He's doing it too moom!

Also, considering you were a huge proponent of both of the lynches yesterday (on flimsy grounds, I may add) - How can you justify a turn-around under the grounds of self-preservation?

In addition, the small piece of "they were town, thus I am town." which is implied in that statement is... well... you know... scummy. Real scummy.

Their flips have nothing to do with yours. Painting it as such is just another brick in the wall.

[popsofctown]

I didn't say "they were town, i am town"

I'm saying "letting the spotlight center around two people while allowing people to lurk is bad," "letting the spotlight center around one person while allowing others to lurk is bad".

[Huntress]

It really, really isn't. SpyreX was getting along just fine pushing the underdog pops wagon yesterday, so why would Rhinox's survival change that today? Either the suspicion of Rhinox from yesterday would be enough to get him lynched today without scumSpyreX's help, or the growing support for the pops agon towards the end of the day would continue enough to get him lynched today. From the position that pops is claiming to hold, that's a town lynch either way, and a strong likelihood of one where SpyreX doesn't get his hands dirty by being part of it, so why would he think scumSpyreX would want to avoid that situation?

I was assuming Pops was looking further ahead than just the next round and was thinking of a possible lylo situation, but I guess he wasn't as he seemed to retract it after you wrote this.

Huntress: Why do you think Spyrex is scum?

In general it's an overall feeling I got from his posts, and in particular post 303, which implied he knew RC was town, and post 497, where he does an about turn and votes for RC, despite saying throughout the game that he was sure RC was town.

If we're not done trying to interpret the kill, i think it might have been a stir-the-pot so that we ignore lurkers.

Right now i think the kill was a sort of lurker smokescreen.

Can you explain these a bit more please. How does the kill act as a lurker smokescreen?

And the fact that multiple people have said "oh spyrex is scummy" in passing without saying why (maybe that was just one person but it's still fishy) makes me suspicious of him, quite possibly they are scumpartners. Worst-case-scenario their townie guts are agreeing with me.

Would this make you more suspicious of SpyreX or of the people who said it?

I think you missed replying to this.

[SpyreX]

I didn't say "they were town, i am town"

I'm saying "letting the spotlight center around two people while allowing people to lurk is bad," "letting the spotlight center around one person while allowing others to lurk is bad".

We saw the spotlight shine on

two town players

all of day 1. Maybe letting the spotlight fall where it may is not a good plan here guys.

No, you didn't. Its an implication. The key word, of course, being town.

Now, hypocrisy aside, if the statement was "We focused on two players yesterday and we're doing it again" it has an entirely different tone. When you take the events of today - a focus on you and apply them to yesterday - a focus on two "town" players. The implication of similarity is that you, also, would be town.

Which, of course, isn't true but.

In general it's an overall feeling I got from his posts, and in particular post 303, which implied he knew RC was town, and post 497, where he does an about turn and votes for RC, despite saying throughout the game that he was sure RC was town.

Considering you said you thought I was scummy before 303 and, yet, 303 is the only concrete "evidence" you've given for this feeling well.

As for the latter - I made it abundantly clear that a.) I thought RC and Rhinox were town AND b.) that I would lynch them regardless to stop a nolynch. This, of course, is because a.) a lynch is better than a no lynch AND b.) I could have been wrong (of course I wasn't, but.).

Of course, there was also the kink of the double claim. Which, in that situation, didn't make sense for Bio (if he was scum) to counter because with the time involved the chances of a wagon shifting under the guise of the claim were marginal at best. And rereading the OP leaves the number of roles present up to interpretation.

So, yea, I lynched RC and I was very sure he was going to flip town (up until the double claim which I was only marginally sure because the counter by nature didn't make as much sense from scum Bio as from town Bio - although by nature it does make Bio a bit more suspicious).

I've got a massive headcold so if it doesn't make 100% sense what I'm getting at - too bad.

[Vi]

Vote Count:

(unchanged)

popsofctown (L-3) ~ SpyreX, CF Riot, iamausername

SpyreX (L-5) ~ Huntress

Minimum (L-6)

Not Voting:

bionicchop2, Jahudo, Moriarty147, OhGodMyLife, Rishi, popsofctown
[size=0]bionicchop2 - 0 | Huntress - 0 | iamausername - 3 PROD1 0 | Jahudo - 0 | CF Riot - 1 | Moriarty147 - 1 PROD1 4 | OhGodMyLife - 3 PROD1 0 | popsofctown - 0 | Rishi - 2 PROD1 4 | SpyreX - 0[/size]

First Deadline Review: Sunday, March 15 2009
Current Deadline: Thursday, March 19 2009

-------

iamausername and OhGodMyLife are getting prodded for their first times today.

You may want to consider banking on a March 19 deadline. ...That doesn't sound frightening enough. I think I need to reconsider my deadline scheduling policies for my next game.

[OhGodMyLife]

Responding to prod. I can confirm that I have no information to contradict my having been jailkept. Real post tomorrow.

[iamausername]

Prod'd. I've got two other games that I've fallen further behind on, but I'll be with you ASAP.

[Moriarty147]

Moriarty

, what are you looking for in your reread? Why are you hesitant to vote Pops today when you were voting for him all of yesterday?

The day is far from over, and day 1 focussed on two people who (to at least a majority of the town) seemed scummy who both flipped town, so I'm not sure haste in voting is to be encouraged now, especially as deadline still is not very soon by any means.

As for my reread, I am trying to see if I missed any tells in day 1, especially now that we have some flips (and maybe we'd have some links come up between players that are suspicious...)

As for Huntress, I'm still not sure how that's a valid case on SpyreX. It seems extremely contrived that him thinking that RC and Rhinox might *both* be town (shock! awe!) when they both have wagons on them is necessarily a scumtell in any way, shape or form. As for the final vote, lynch > no lynch, etc. Would like to see some more reasoning from you, if that is at all possible.

[popsofctown]

If we're not done trying to interpret the kill, i think it might have been a stir-the-pot so that we ignore lurkers.

Right now i think the kill was a sort of lurker smokescreen.

Can you explain these a bit more please. How does the kill act as a lurker smokescreen?

Everyone starts talking about the kill interpretations, then quickly points a finger at someone who actually *talked* yesterday. Then we start focussing on that person they defend themselves and the lurkers get to say "oh me too". And we ignore the lurkers.
This is a concern because if that was the intent, it looks like it's getting fulfilled.

And the fact that multiple people have said "oh spyrex is scummy" in passing without saying why (maybe that was just one person but it's still fishy) makes me suspicious of him, quite possibly they are scumpartners. Worst-case-scenario their townie guts are agreeing with me.

Would this make you more suspicious of SpyreX or of the people who said it?

I think you missed replying to this.

[/quote]
More suspicious of the people saying that. At the time though, the NK interpretation pushed Spyrex ahead of the people saying that. Now the people saying that are ahead, and it looks like it was person saying that, you.

[Huntress]

In general it's an overall feeling I got from his posts, and in particular post 303, which implied he knew RC was town, and post 497, where he does an about turn and votes for RC, despite saying throughout the game that he was sure RC was town.

Considering you said you thought I was scummy before 303 and, yet, 303 is the only concrete "evidence" you've given for this feeling well.

When I first mentioned you in post 301 I said I was suspicious of you but I would need to go back and look at my notes to see if there was enough to make a case with. At that point it wasn't much more than a niggle.

As for the latter - I made it abundantly clear that a.) I thought RC and Rhinox were town AND b.) that I would lynch them regardless to stop a nolynch. This, of course, is because a.) a lynch is better than a no lynch AND b.) I could have been wrong (of course I wasn't, but.).

Of course, there was also the kink of the double claim. Which, in that situation, didn't make sense for Bio (if he was scum) to counter because with the time involved the chances of a wagon shifting under the guise of the claim were marginal at best. And rereading the OP leaves the number of roles present up to interpretation.

So, yea, I lynched RC and I was very sure he was going to flip town (up until the double claim which I was only marginally sure because the counter by nature didn't make as much sense from scum Bio as from town Bio - although by nature it does make Bio a bit more suspicious).

It wasn't so much the fact that you voted for the lynch, it was the words you used:

Well, hells bells, I was as wrong as you can be about RC I guess.

This doesn't seem to bear out what you are saying now.

As for Huntress, I'm still not sure how that's a valid case on SpyreX. It seems extremely contrived that him thinking that RC and Rhinox might *both* be town (shock! awe!) when they both have wagons on them is necessarily a scumtell in any way, shape or form. As for the final vote, lynch > no lynch, etc. Would like to see some more reasoning from you, if that is at all possible.

That wasn't intended to be a full case, just a quick summary as I haven't finished my re-read yet. I never said that thinking that RC and Rhinox might both be town was a scumtell; it was the implication in post 303 that he

knew

RC was town that I was picking up on.

Everyone starts talking about the kill interpretations, then quickly points a finger at someone who actually *talked* yesterday. Then we start focussing on that person they defend themselves and the lurkers get to say "oh me too". And we ignore the lurkers.
This is a concern because if that was the intent, it looks like it's getting fulfilled.

This seems a bit far-fetched as a reason for a NK. But looking back I see that it was

you

that started doing what you describe here. Was that because you wanted to turn the discussion away from the direction that the first two to comment, OGML and Rishi, were starting to look?

[Rishi]

Need to catch up on this game. Will do so over the weekend.

[SpyreX]

When I first mentioned you in post 301 I said I was suspicious of you but I would need to go back and look at my notes to see if there was enough to make a case with. At that point it wasn't much more than a niggle.

Well since 303 and beyond is all I have to work with, allow me to retort:

That wasn't intended to be a full case, just a quick summary as I haven't finished my re-read yet. I never said that thinking that RC and Rhinox might both be town was a scumtell; it was the implication in post 303 that he

knew

RC was town that I was picking up on.

Yes, I

knew

RC would come up town.
I also

knew

Rhinox would come up town.
I also

know

Pops will come up scum.

Now, I'm going to requote what I said to you the first time you brought this up as some great slip:

Yes, it was a slip. Caught me!

Or, perhaps considering I've been very sure about both Rhinox and RC ending up town it was implied that I believe when he IS lynched today he will, in fact, come up town.

It wasn't so much the fact that you voted for the lynch, it was the words you used:

This doesn't seem to bear out what you are saying now.

From the absolute most cursory of glances, sure it doesn't. However, lets delve just a tiny bit deeper.

Well, huh.

I really doubt that there are actually TWO jailers in this setup

(although I wouldn't put it 100% past Vi).

Funny thing is, I knew RC was going to claim a PR, and I more likely than not expected it to be jailer. However...

Now I dont know what to think. If RC flips town Bio is going up the creek so it makes very little sense for that 1-1 trade. It does make sense in reverse though - a 1-1 is, in most cases, worth it for the town.

Well, hells bells, I was as wrong as you can be about RC I guess.

Unvote, Vote: RedCoyote

I'll check back in but it all but has to be one of these two today.

As for the latter - I made it abundantly clear that a.) I thought RC and Rhinox were town AND b.) that I would lynch them regardless to stop a nolynch. This, of course, is because a.) a lynch is better than a no lynch AND b.) I could have been wrong (of course I wasn't, but.).

Of course, there was also the kink of the double claim. Which, in that situation, didn't make sense for Bio (if he was scum) to counter because with the time involved the chances of a wagon shifting under the guise of the claim were marginal at best.

And rereading the OP leaves the number of roles present up to interpretation.

So, yea, I lynched RC and I was very sure he was going to flip town (up until the double claim which I was only marginally sure because the counter by nature didn't make as much sense from scum Bio as from town Bio - although by nature it does make Bio a bit more suspicious).

I've got a massive headcold so if it doesn't make 100% sense what I'm getting at - too bad.

So, with those together, lets look at what I was saying again.

At the time of the claim and subsequent counterclaim, I did not believe that there would be two jailers. Hence, one of them would have to be scum. Although I still thought RC was town, it made even LESS sense from my perspective for Bio to come in with a scum-counterclaim on a jailer.

After that passed, I reread the OP and saw that there was obvious room for interpretation for the number of specific roles to be in the game. Now, even if I had read that and grasped that at the time of the lynch, I would have still ended up voting for RC to make sure the lynch went through - the only difference is I wouldn't have had doubt in my original read before it.

Its all good though since, as I've made apparent, once pops flips scum and I have a working base you're in the major pool of suspects.

As for all these lurkers I really hope you hold to posting SOMETHING after the weekend like I think you've all said.

[popsofctown]

Please quit saying "once pops flips scum". For one, it's false. For two, even if you thought it was true, if you had any sense at all you'd know it's possibly false. And three, it makes me feel like you need to cut off discussion on my alignment to get me lynched, and just repeat that i'm scum, which calls on the repitition fallacy which is not very becoming of young dragons like yourself, spyro. And four, there is no four. But a good list ought to have a four, even if it's a mere placeholder for a substitute of a doppelganger of itself.

[SpyreX]

Of course I know its possibly false.

However, I have no reason to believe I am wrong at this juncture. Thus, you are scum.

This is not an attempt to cut of discussion of your alignment, just my personal opinion. That I am confident in. Confident enough to say your scum.

So, unless you're going to say my confidence in my own read is a scumtell (which, ultimately Huntress is)... as you so eloquently put it to me earlier: deal with it.

[popsofctown]

However, I have no reason to believe I am wrong at this juncture. Thus, you are scum.

Non-sequitir of the day.

Do you see how your poor choice of language creates a case of repitition fallacy? Fallacies are ugly things that are of no necessity when you play town.

[SpyreX]

... What fallacy are you talking about? Are you implying that I am repeating it to believe it?

As for the above, the more wordy version of the same thing is:

Of course there is the possibility that my read of the game is wrong.

However, all of the evidence of your play leads me to believe, in fact, that my read is not wrong. Hence, I am going to trust my read of the game. As my read of the game is one where you are scum, you are, to me, scum.

Explain to me the fallacy you are trying to push on me for this thought process: I think you are scum due to your play, therefore you are my most likely candidate for scum and I will call you so.

[Vi]

Vote Count:

(unchanged)

popsofctown (L-3) ~ SpyreX, CF Riot, iamausername

SpyreX (L-5) ~ Huntress

Minimum (L-6)

Not Voting:

bionicchop2, Jahudo, Moriarty147, OhGodMyLife, Rishi, popsofctown
[size=0]bionicchop2 - 1 | Huntress - 0 | iamausername - 0 PROD1 1 | Jahudo - 1 | CF Riot - 2 | Moriarty147 - 0 PROD1 5 | OhGodMyLife - 0 PROD1 1 | popsofctown - 0 | Rishi - 0 PROD1 5 | SpyreX - 0[/size]

First Deadline Review: Sunday, March 15 2009
Current Deadline: Thursday, March 19 2009

[Jahudo]

Please quit saying "once pops flips scum". For one, it's false.

This is not a valid defense. There's still the burden of proof until you can somehow confirm your role while still being alive.

For two, even if you thought it was true, if you had any sense at all you'd know it's possibly false.

Do you think he's purposefully ignoring other possibilities or do you think he's tunnelvisioned? Where do you see this happening besides when he says "pops is scum"?

And three, it makes me feel like you need to cut off discussion on my alignment to get me lynched, and just repeat that i'm scum.

Where is he cutting off discussion in favor of just repeating pops is scum?

[bionicchop2]

Here is an interesting tidbit. As Spyrex mentioned, no scum were in danger of being lynched yesterday since the 2 biggest wagons were both on town. This would lead me to think scum played a fairly relaxed game yesterday. Today, with no sure-thing wagons formed, scum would likely be more aggressive IMO. This is exactly how I view Jahudo as playing. Most of my note on him from yesterday are comments about how he seems to be playing it safe and laying low. Yes he was posting, but never seemed to really get aggressive with accusations. Today he has come out guns blazing.

As I said, I don't see any of the 2 vote holders as scum ATM, so I will start my own fun non-wagon which likely will go nowhere. yay!

vote jahudo

[popsofctown]

he's not cutting off conversation so much as ceasing to appeal to logic to convince people i'm scum. Less and less he has reasons, more and more he just says i'm scum.

Repetition fallacy is a human fallacy somewhat similar to confirmation bias, no one would agree to it consciously but it affects people on a subconscious level. If a conclusion is repeated enough times, people begin to accept it as true. I class it along with AtE as "stuff that can cloud people's judgment" and so i don't think it has any place in a mafia game.
Scum appeal to repition fallacy sometimes to get a mislynch, (even if they don't know the term they know that blankly repeating the position helps), but that's not necessarily the case here, because townies do it a lot too.

[popsofctown]

BC, can you explain that in a way i'd understand?

[bionicchop2]

BC, can you explain that in a way i'd understand?

If you don't understand it how it was written, then no. What part about him being more aggressive today is confusing?

[CF Riot]

As I said, I don't see any of the 2 vote holders as scum ATM, so I will start my own fun non-wagon which likely will go nowhere. yay!

Why is this line attached to your post? What is the point of placing a vote then adding this disclaimer?

Less and less he has reasons, more and more he just says i'm scum.

But the reasons he (and others) have already given are strong, and you haven't really refuted any of them.

[bionicchop2]

As I said, I don't see any of the 2 vote holders as scum ATM, so I will start my own fun non-wagon which likely will go nowhere. yay!

Why is this line attached to your post? What is the point of placing a vote then adding this disclaimer?

Because...I...felt...like it?

Was it scummy? If not, why nit pick at it?

[Jahudo]

As Spyrex mentioned, no scum were in danger of being lynched yesterday since the 2 biggest wagons were both on town. This would lead me to think scum played a fairly relaxed game yesterday.

I originally brought that argument up and applied it to popsofctown because that's what I thought of his motivations to change votes day 1. Why do you think it applies to me better than pops or someone else?

Today, with no sure-thing wagons formed, scum would likely be more aggressive IMO.

So can town IMO.

Most of my note on him from yesterday are comments about how he seems to be playing it safe and laying low. Yes he was posting, but never seemed to really get aggressive with accusations.

This is unclear to me. How is "playing it safe" comparable to aggression as a tell? Is "laying low" comparable to lurking as a tell?

Today he has come out guns blazing.

Yeah I'll acknowledge that but I don't see how that correlates to an alignment tell. New information always comes from the flips and there's alot to talk about.