Webcomic Wars Mafia: D7- Be Thankful I'm Not The Author

[Head_Honcho]

Assuming that was a response to me, the hider point was unimportant, what was important is that it seems like you have no difficulty convincing yourself Empking is scum, whereas you had some difficulty convincing yourself Percy was scum. So why was Percy the desired lynch? Why was Empking hard to read yesterday but okay to railroad today?

I do not think Empking is necessarily a townie, but I do feel like iffy people really want him to get lynched and that concerns me given our current numbers.

[roflcopter]

empking is not as stupid as he's pretending to be

i am v/la til friday night

[Tarhalindur]

Assuming that was a response to me, the hider point was unimportant, what was important is that it seems like you have no difficulty convincing yourself Empking is scum, whereas you had some difficulty convincing yourself Percy was scum. So why was Percy the desired lynch? Why was Empking hard to read yesterday but okay to railroad today?

1) Your critical error is in assuming I think there's a good behavioral case on Empking.

I don't like the behavioral case on Empking. He does a bit off this game (not sure how to express it - closest I can come is that he seems a little more invested than normal), but that's NOT conclusive. Not after I got burned so hard in XylBot.

What IS reasonably conclusive is a) Empking had better-than-average reason to push for a Fishy kill last night (Fishy was one of the main Empking proponents yesterday) and especially b) there's not that many townies left in this game, and there's a LOT of players that I find more likely to be town than Empking (myself, yourself, Sironigous, Sotty7, SerialClergyman, and hasdgfas all come to mind).

(Aside: At this point, my scumhunting is basically boiling down to townhunting, then taking the remainder and trying to group them. The situation STILL isn't making much sense.)

2) I'm "railroading" Empking? Where the hell did that misrep come from? Last I checked I haven't voted for him ONCE this game - even today, {DizzyIzzy, tubby216, SerialClergyman} are higher on my priority list.

See, I think Empking is scum... but I think he's specifically Discontinued, and I'd rather lynch someone with a shot of being either second Mafia (should it exist) or SK today.

I do not think Empking is necessarily a townie, but I do feel like iffy people really want him to get lynched and that concerns me given our current numbers.

I agree. I think there's a pretty good chance that the unrevealed Mafia is trying its damnedest to get Empking (Discontinued scum) lynched so that they get a chance to win overnight.

I want Empking dead before the end of the game... but I don't want to lynch him today. If I had, I would have voted him.

Can we lynch of DizzyIzzy or tubby, please? Preferably the former - if we have an SK, I'd say it's her.

Vote: DizzyIzzy13

[SerialClergyman]

I think it's hard to see Tar scum if Empking is town, so I think a vote for Tar is less powerful than a vote for Empking.

I'm happy with a wagon on Emp or dizzy. If Tar is promising a wagon on Emp later down the track, I'm cool with dizzy now.

vote dizzy

What happened to lynching me, Tar?

[Tarhalindur]

I think it's hard to see Tar scum if Empking is town, so I think a vote for Tar is less powerful than a vote for Empking.

I'm happy with a wagon on Emp or dizzy. If Tar is promising a wagon on Emp later down the track, I'm cool with dizzy now.

vote dizzy

What happened to lynching me, Tar?

A few things:

1) I'm not 100% sure on your alignment given play today (in particular, if the setup turns out to have only 1 Mafia then you're probably town)... you're about the second most town of the unconfirmeds by play (behind only Sotty7, and she's gone MIA), and nagging internal voice is reminded of Percy.
2) I don't see you being SK, and best play today is probably to lynch a player that is likely be SK if one exists (aka tubby216 or DizzyIzzy; I'm pretty sure worst case on those two is that they flip Discontinued, because I don't see either being town on PoE grounds).

Second preferred choice is Sajin, preferably with a DizzyIzzy hammer (at worst we trade 1-1, at best we lynch scum) - if we don't lynch Sajin here, we pretty much have to hope that some scum group (read: whichever one he's not in) kills him eventually.

---

On another note: We may need to rely on a scumgroup's best interest coinciding with ours (anything other than an SK lynch leaves open the possibility of an extended Prisoner's Dilemma). Here's the situations, so that the relevant group knows about them:
- Discontinued: If you started with any fewer than five members and DizzyIzzy doesn't flip unrevealed faction or SK, you NEED to kill a possible unconfirmed tonight. If you don't, you risk Day 4 starting with 4 unrevealed faction out of 8 players tomorrow (if lynch and your kill miss them and they don't kill the same player you do), which should result in their win. (This goes double if you started with 3 players.)
- SK: If you exist and survive today's lynch, you NEED to try to kill Discontinued tonight (hint: try Empking on for size). Anything else risks that the Discontinued Mafia started with 5 players and that lynch + kills hit three separate non-Discontinued players (in which case Discontinued
should win at day start tomorrow).

[SerialClergyman]

Why are you suddenly worried about there being an SK? I'd dismissed the possibility primarily on your own analysis of the night kills.

The reason why I asked is your vote on Dizzy seems a little out of the blue. I voted her last page and noone seemed keen to get on board, and now with your influence I could see a wagon come up, but I'm suspicious about the motivation coming out of the blue. If she townflips, I can just see your long detailed post tomorrow about how I steered it to Dizzy.

So, this might be paranoid, but why the concern about an SK now?

[Sotty7]

As I mentioned in a previous post, it bothers me greatly that Tar was apparently not 'convinced' of a Percy lynch, which to me says he is at least slightly more convinced Percy was town(telling the truth) than scum, which to me says he was slightly more convinced Percy was a hider which should have raised suspicions about Empking to be addressed yesterday. Especially as he had become quite a presence in the town, surely support of an alternate wagon (which he should have found as reasonable yesterday as today, where more is at stake) from the one he was not convinced of would have made that alternate wagon a much more viable possibility, and at least would have been a nontrivial effort.

I wasn't seeing the Tar hate much but you do make a good point about the Percy/emp deal. With emp being emp the scum could have thought he was an easy lynch, but Percy was not. So I really can't see scum passing up the two for one situation they had there especially with Percy's town flip. I think this is very damming to emp.

Unvote, Vote: Emp

A Dizzy lynch wouldn't be too bad either I guess. I still think Sajin is scum.

[Empking]

Mod: VC?

Why don't you think scum would have thought that Percy would be an easy lynch?

[roflcopter]

all empking is doing is asking stupid questions that have no bearing on alignment. how exactly is an answer to your previous post going to help you or anyone find scum, emp?

with siro's result its very unlikely that tar is mafia, but his hardon for not lynching empking despite saying he's scum is exactly what a scumpartner would need to do here. need i remind you that in your own analysis if the game started with five discontinued lynching non-discontinued could get us endgamed?

[Gorrad]

Deadline was supposed to be Saturday, but because of the move I'm pushing it back until Monday. VC/Prods later this evening.

[Head_Honcho]

I can

unvote Vote: DizzyIzzy

. I am fairly sure someone is taking me for a ride and this game is going to end my glorious streak : o

[Empking]

all empking is doing is asking stupid questions that have no bearing on alignment. how exactly is an answer to your previous post going to help you or anyone find scum, emp?

Its to see if it causes one of Sotty's scumbuddies to speak up to give her permission to answer it.

It worked.

[Tarhalindur]

Why are you suddenly worried about there being an SK? I'd dismissed the possibility primarily on your own analysis of the night kills.

The reason why I asked is your vote on Dizzy seems a little out of the blue. I voted her last page and noone seemed keen to get on board, and now with your influence I could see a wagon come up, but I'm suspicious about the motivation coming out of the blue. If she townflips, I can just see your long detailed post tomorrow about how I steered it to Dizzy.

So, this might be paranoid, but why the concern about an SK now?

Two reasons:

1) The only scenario I can think of OTOH where we have a potential autoloss is if we have an UNK SK and 5 Discontinued Mafia (lynching anything other than SK in that situation risks us being pushed into kingmaker, though a win is still possible if we get some lucky crosskills/missed kills). Again, if we do have an SK (unlikely but possible) then said SK was probably one of the players who replaced in N3 (by Occam's Razor... anything else requires two unlucky kills), and DizzyIzzy is considerably more likely given the Ascetic claim.
2) Since POE strongly indicates that DizzyIzzy will flip scum power role of some kind (be she Discontinued, unrevealed, or SK), so there's not too much downside to lynching her if she's Discontinued.
3) Constant SK discussion is getting to me... both because the internal nagging voice keeps saying it's possible and because everybody else seems unwilling to accept the possibility of multiscum (maybe it's just because they're all scum, mind...) and I can't exactly lynch by myself.

Main problem with DizzyIzzy lynch is that in multiscum (probable situation) I suspect she's Discontinued... but most of the good candidates for unrevealed faction are unlikely to be scum in singlescum...

Still mulling it over.

[Tarhalindur]

all empking is doing is asking stupid questions that have no bearing on alignment. how exactly is an answer to your previous post going to help you or anyone find scum, emp?

with siro's result its very unlikely that tar is mafia, but his hardon for not lynching empking despite saying he's scum is exactly what a scumpartner would need to do here. need i remind you that in your own analysis if the game started with five discontinued lynching non-discontinued could get us endgamed?

You need a lesson in math.

Assume 17-5-2-1. Assume we hit SK today, and Discontinued does not have a bonus kill (if it's 17-5-2-1 and they have a bonus kill, we're pretty screwed regardless of what we do). If 17-5-2-1, then today started as 6-4-0-1 (4 because Korlash is dead). SK lynch leaves us at 6-4 going into night, Day 5 starts at 5-4 (true LyLo), and we play from there.

Now, assume 17-5-2-1 with UNK SK (unlikely but possible). Assume we lynch Discontinued today (so 6-3-0-1 going into night). Then assume the worst case scenario - namely, that 2 separate townies are killed N4 (so Day 5 starts as 4-3-0-1). This suits the SK in this scenario just fine... he just has to make sure that Mafia doesn't gain a true majority (either a Mafioso has to be lynched D5 or he has to successfully crosskill N5, but not both) and town is eventually forced to choose which scum wins.

The other factor you're failing to take into consideration is that I think there's NO way that DizzyIzzy is town. She's either Discontinued, SK, or unrevealed; town Ascetics are exceedingly rare and useless, the ability is very strong on scum, and there's at least six players in the game more likely to be town than her (self, Head_Honcho*, Sironigous, SC, hasdgfas, you** all come to mind).

* - H_H's play over the last two pages has been horrible, but I still have trouble seeing how his D2 vanilla crumbs aren't genuine. If scum then he must be unrevealed faction.
** - If you (roflcopter) are scum, you must be unrevealed... SK is pretty much impossible given N2 and N3 kill methods (don't see you using a Hadoken kill method if you're SK that can choose kill method), and Discontinued is impossible given claimed, uncounterclaimed N2 Korlash kill.

Speaking of that... your defense of DizzyIzzy here is actually a point towards DizzyIzzy being unrevealed (it's exactly what I would expect from an unrevealed faction Mafioso, and I don't see why unrevealed would shy away from a lynch on a non-unrevealed)... and lynching DizzyIzzy as Unrevealed is pretty much a best case scenario as unrevealed, should it exist, almost has to be the stronger faction right now...

[Sotty7]

Mod: VC?

Why don't you think scum would have thought that Percy would be an easy lynch?

Did you read yesterday or the day before

at all?

Percy is a good player who can argue well, he couldn't save himself from a lynch but he put up on hell of a fight. You on the other hand couldn't match that kind of effort.

[Empking]

Mod: VC?

Why don't you think scum would have thought that Percy would be an easy lynch?

Did you read yesterday or the day before

at all?

Percy is a good player who can argue well, he couldn't save himself from a lynch but he put up on hell of a fight. You on the other hand couldn't match that kind of effort.

He put up a horrible fight and was the closest to lynch pretty much the entire day. He was obviously an easy lynch because he was lynched easily.

[Gorrad]

Due to mod exhaustion, VC on Monday, Deadline on Tuesday.

[SerialClergyman]

With deadline coming close, I think people need to either vote dizzy or explain why another lynch is more worthwhile.

[Empking]

Unvote

Vote: Dizzy

There's no question whether she's scummy though it'd still be better with a Sajin lynch.

[Sironigous]

Vote: Dizzy

See ya game.

So, yeah, if I had vig powers I'd immediately vig everyone except Tar and Sajin. Sigh. : |

[Tarhalindur]

Since by my read there's a decent chance I'll be killed tonight (especially if there's an unrevealed faction), my guide to tomorrow:

First, the big note (going to drop this now, mainly to give DizzyIzzy/Sajin a chance to pipe up): I've been running through possible imbalanced scumgroups (i.e, one group with 4 scum and weak power, other with 3 scum with decent power - see the Phoebus Mafia vs. Wolves for an example).

If we have imbalanced groups, I STRONGLY suspect that Discontinued started as {Korlash, DizzyIzzy, Sajin} - Korlash flip (glass cannon) suggests that Discontinued would be the small group with power, DizzyIzzy claim is a power claim, Sajin claim suggests that he's power if he's lying. Likewise, the unrevealed faction would probably consist of roflcopter (not lying much about his abilities here) + 3 goons.

The main thing to note: This is the one scenario where Empking is likely to be town - I have difficulty seeing Empking as unrevealed faction (especially given Roflcopter), and there's no room in Discontinued for him in this version. Problem is, there's alternate scenarios (17-5-2-1 and especially the barely plausible 18-4-2-1) where Empking can be scum with DizzyIzzy and Sajin.

---

Notes for tomorrow:

Tarhalindur - If you're having to resort to this guide instead of just asking me for my thoughts, then I died and flipped town. Next question?

Sironigous - Probably town. Setting up a claim for >2 days is not unheard of for scum, but is extremely rare; reactions look genuine. NOTE TO SIRONIGOUS: There's a pretty good chance you WON'T get killed tonight (if Discontinued started with 4 and we miss unrevealed faction with today's lynch then Discontinued must either kill probable unrevealed or risk losing). I recommend sending in an Empking or Sajin investigation.

Head_Honcho - Day 2 response to me is a reasonably strong vanilla tell (not as strong as the one MoS showed, but MoS isn't alive anymore); outweighs shaky D4 play, IMO.

SerialClergyman - Something of a wild card. Shouldn't be Discontinued given D2 squabbles with Korlash, probably isn't SK either; question is, was roflcopter pulling a Korlash (i.e, roflcopter : SerialClergyman :: Korlash : Percy), supporting a scumbuddy, or actually town? Play doesn't help too much, since your play in games where you flipped scum still reads town to me. Leaning town (becomes certainly town if an SK flips).

Sotty7 - Slicey play and early play all read very town to me. D4 play, however, is bugging me:

As I mentioned in a previous post, it bothers me greatly that Tar was apparently not 'convinced' of a Percy lynch, which to me says he is at least slightly more convinced Percy was town(telling the truth) than scum, which to me says he was slightly more convinced Percy was a hider which should have raised suspicions about Empking to be addressed yesterday. Especially as he had become quite a presence in the town, surely support of an alternate wagon (which he should have found as reasonable yesterday as today, where more is at stake) from the one he was not convinced of would have made that alternate wagon a much more viable possibility, and at least would have been a nontrivial effort.

I wasn't seeing the Tar hate much but you do make a good point about the Percy/emp deal. With emp being emp the scum could have thought he was an easy lynch, but Percy was not. So I really can't see scum passing up the two for one situation they had there especially with Percy's town flip. I think this is very damming to emp.

Unvote, Vote: Emp

A Dizzy lynch wouldn't be too bad either I guess. I still think Sajin is scum.

This is bugging me - it reads like classic "I'm scum and don't care who gets lynched as long as it's not my faction". Moreover, given who Sotty7 is willing to lynch... leaning Sotty7 unrevealed faction (make that sure of it if {DizzyIzzy, Sajin} are both Discontinued).

Sajin - I'm increasingly doubtful of the claim. The question is, which group is he in? And who are his buddies? NOTE: By game balance, Roflcopter and Sajin CANNOT both be town. If an SK flips, lynch Sajin immediately. Likewise, if Sajin somehow flips town, lynch Rofl immediately.

Roflcopter - Roflcopter boils down as follows: If there's an unrevealed Mafia, he's in it. Otherwise, he's town. There is no middle ground here, and I'm 90% sure of this conclusion. Implications: If an SK flips, that all-but-clears Roflcopter. If an unrevealed faction flips, Rofl should probably be lynched ASAP (check your numbers first - he gets a temporary pass if there are more surviving Discontinued).

hasdgfas - Probably scum (though if SC scum then hasdgfas probably town). If I had to guess, I'd say Discontinued, though unrevealed is possible (make that probable if DizzyIzzy and Sajin are both revealed to be Discontinued).

Empking - Again, probably scum by the numbers. Given the other players attacking today and who's doing the attacking (see: Roflcopter), I'm pretty sure he's Discontinued, since either the obvUnrevealed wants Empking dead (probably not bussing) or there is no unrevealed faction and Empking is unlikely to be SK.

tubby216 - Probably unrevealed, since there's not much room elsewhere. Given that, is my second preference for lynch today,

DizzyIzzy - Scum. Not sure what kind.

[SerialClergyman]

Tar, why are you increasingly doubtful of Sajin but increasingly happier with me? I probably fought the most to not lynch him and move it onto someone else, aren't you worried if he's scum that I was saving my buddy?

[Tarhalindur]

Tar, why are you increasingly doubtful of Sajin but increasingly happier with me? I probably fought the most to not lynch him and move it onto someone else, aren't you worried if he's scum that I was saving my buddy?

Frankly, I'm not completely sure myself - gut says you're most likely to be town of the vanillas, and I find 9 town power roles increasingly doubtful. Closest I can come to articulating it is that my scumdar thinks you're scumhunting from a town perspective (something I can't really say for the rest of the players in the game).

[tubby216]

ok

unvote, vote Izzy

[Gorrad]

Vote Count brought to you by Akbar's Airships. "Not Deathtraps".

DizzyIzzyB13 (6): Hasdgfas, Tarhalindur, SerialClergyman, Head_Honcho, Empking, Sironigous

Empking (3): Sajin, Roflcopter, Sotty7
Sajin (1): Tubby216

Note Voting (1): DizzyIzzyB13
With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch.

After a very long and fruitful day, you find DizzyIzzy's constant inability to say anything very suspect. As you back her into a corner she stops you. "Wait!" She says "Give me just a second to reach into my mage-like robes and pull out my HADOKEN!!!!!!

Nothing happens.

"Stupid once a day cast time." she says "Well, that was a bust. Ah well, go ahead and kill me. Worked out well enough last time, what with the king of hell and all."

You happily oblige.

DizzyIzzyB13, Black Mage of 8-Bit Theater, NK-Immune Godfather of the Sprite Mafia, Lynched D4

N4! Send choices in ASAP.