926 A Game of Thrones Mafia - Over.

[Faraday]

Day 2.14 vote-count. The

"

"There are some things I do not need to be told. Even a blind man could see that wolf would never have left you willingly."

"

votecount.

Seacore (1) [The Inquisition]
MacavityLock (2) [TheButtonMen, Raivann]
Raivann (2) [MacavityLock, Percy]
TheButtonMen (2) [Confucius, Seacore]
Not voting: (3) [Mina, Kinetic, Locke Lamora]

Deadline: March 25th @ 6pm GMT.

[Locke Lamora]

Raivann: if Mac had claimed that he definitely does have a limited amount of kills, or that he has a restriction in some other way, like who or when he can kill, would you read him as more likely town?

[Mina]

Okay, if the Inquisition doesn't show up within the next day, I'd seriously consider voting him. This is ridiculous.

I'm no longer sure leaving Mac alive would be the most pragmatic solution. Because a roleblocker (if there is one) would block Mac if he suspects a goon and let him shoot if he suspects a townie. And I realized that

if

we decide to lynch him, it has to be today...because if we mislynch and he shoots a townie tonight, tomorrow might be LYLO. (Personally, though, I'd guess the distribution two teams of two, or one team of two vs. 1 SK.) After that, he'll be untouchable.

So basically, whether we should lynch Mac depends on one question: are there any players you think are from the faction that killed xvart AND more likely to be evil than MacLock? Because we should go for our greatest odds at catching a baddie.

I have thoughts on this, but I'll save them for when I get back from work. I've noticed something VERY interesting.

MacavityLock, Buttonmen, and Confucius are almost certainly not on the same team, based on ML and Button trying to lynch each other and Confucius trying to lynch both.

Scum-team? Town-team? Either?

Why do you think Mac, Button and Con can't all be town?

Sorry, I meant scumteam. They could theoretically be town (although that might be wonky balance), but I doubt they're all scum based on how hard they've been trying to lynch each other.

By the way, MacavityLock, did it occur to you that Confucius might be a power role, or did you just assume he picked up on your breadcrumb? Just trying to evaluate Con's claim.

Kinetic used to think we were all power roles of some sort. Wouldn't that mean that we would have to count him as a PR too? He could have been saying this as VT to draw NK, but i think not. I think he was setting himself up for a PR claim later.

Um...Raivann, you realize that if Kinetic actually

does

have a power role, that was worse than Seacore's VT claim?

Also, why do you suspect Percy? Is it just a combination of OMGUS/him suspecting Inquisition? I haven't seen you make a case on him.

I'm basing alot of reads right now on The Inq. telling the truth. I just dont see the scum motivation in him claiming he was targeted at the beginning of D2.

Well, he might have been trying to discourage the other faction from attacking him again at night. Now that we know he was telling the truth about his BP claim, that makes him look somewhat better (although Percy mentioned reasons for why he could still be scum).

The more claims we get the more Maclocks claim of being a straight up Vig stands out. Everyone else has some limitation except for him.

If MacLock is a vig, he's implied he might have limited shots. Of course, that makes me wonder why a vig with limited shots would waste one of them on N1 on a random inactive player who wasn't his top suspect or likely to lynched...But we've already established that if MacavityLock is not scum, then he's the worst vig ever.

[MacavityLock]

By the way, MacavityLock, did it occur to you that Confucius might be a power role, or did you just assume he picked up on your breadcrumb? Just trying to evaluate Con's claim.

It did not occur to me until he said as much. Now that he has, I believe the claim.

I'm basing alot of reads right now on The Inq. telling the truth. I just dont see the scum motivation in him claiming he was targeted at the beginning of D2.

Well, he might have been trying to discourage the other faction from attacking him again at night. Now that we know he was telling the truth about his BP claim, that makes him look somewhat better (although Percy mentioned reasons for why he could still be scum).

See my 606 for why Inq had to claim BP today.

But we've already established that if MacavityLock is not scum, then he's the worst vig ever.

Wait, what?

[TheButtonmen]

The more claims we get the more Maclocks claim of being a straight up Vig stands out. Everyone else has some limitation except for him.

If MacLock is a vig, he's implied he might have limited shots. Of course, that makes me wonder why a vig with limited shots would waste one of them on N1 on a random inactive player who wasn't his top suspect or likely to lynched.

Where does he imply limited shots?

[Raivann]

Raivann: if Mac had claimed that he definitely does have a limited amount of kills, or that he has a restriction in some other way, like who or when he can kill, would you read him as more likely town?

No, Mac is scum.

Um...Raivann, you realize that if Kinetic actually does have a power role, that was worse than Seacore's VT claim?

Also, why do you suspect Percy? Is it just a combination of OMGUS/him suspecting Inquisition? I haven't seen you make a case on him.

Kinetic probably does have a PR, a scum PR that is.

I would probably have to reread to make a case but yeah its mainly omgus.
I mean just iso me and it's obvious that I'm super townie and awesome scumhunter thats why Mac, and Percy are trying to lynch me.

[Percy]

How about the fact that I was very insistent that Kin provide the reasons he brought up name-claim?

I looked at this exchange. If we are in a game with an SK and a mafia group

and

the bad guys have all been given fake claims, I can imagine one faction probing for information on the other faction if someone brought up the idea of nameclaiming. Still, I can imagine this story fitting vig-ML as well.

Could you link me to the game where MacavityLock got very prickly when pressed on his vote? I'd like to see the similarities for myself.

Sure:

Mini 878 - Nouns Mafia

In particular, note

this post

.

One thing I will note; as far as fakeclaims go, cop is

SO MUCH EASIER

to claim as scum than either Watcher or Tracker. Scum can give "accurate" results rather easily, but Watchers and Trackers can be easily counterclaimed by anyone with a Night Action. I don't think we should be lynching Confucius today, and claiming such a role is a difficult scum play (unless, of course, he's a scum tracker/watcher, but that only really makes sense if there's an SK imo).

Also,

C) My limitation will result in me getting No Result not a false one,

Hold on, didn't you say the only way you could get No Result was as the result of a RB?!

(I remember I had a WTF reaction to Flutter claiming that a cop shouldn't counterclaim Button because "there might be two investigation roles." But in hindsight, it must have been a breadcrumb. I suppose it bolsters Confucius's claim.)

Nice find.

Even if MacavityLock is scum, he'll now be held accountable for his kill. We know that at the very least, he isn't part of the team that killed xvart. It's in his own best interests to take out the other scum team. And if he targeted Inquisition (which Confucius has just confirmed), he was clearly aiming for shady characters even before his reveal.

:goodposting:

So here's me stepping it up..
Scumteam= Kinetic, Percy
SK= MacLock

unvote, Vote:MacacityLock

Let's assume you're a town and your read is 100% accurate. Why would you want to lynch the SK

before

the Mafia? It is in the SK's best interests to kill scum at this stage in the game, not town.

So our Vig wants to shoot BP SK again tonight ?
Is that what I'm supposed to believe?

No. If The Inquisition is a BP SK, he didn't kill anyone last night, which is very odd. The claim is that a 2-shot BP claim makes slightly more sense (to me, at least - townies with 2-shot BP would want to attract another NK, not dissuade, etc.) coming from scum than from town. Add The Inq's subsequent play = lynchworthy.

I just dont see the scum motivation in him claiming he was targeted at the beginning of D2.

If he was scum and

didn't

claim, it would look terrible if ML claimed he tried to kill him.

Now let's make one thing clear. I am waiting on TheButtonmen to answer my question about his role, but think about the limiting factor from the point of view of scum (he still hasn't claimed in full): it means he can basically get away with never giving us any result to confirm. Throwing that kind of limitation in a fakeclaim is classic scum play, as is claiming "I wuz roleblokd" the day after being forced to claim cop.

The Inquisition's role, if you believe it, doesn't have a "limiting factor", it's just a 2-shot ability AFAICS. Confucius says his limiting factor is implied rather than specific, but TheButtonmen is saying he has good knowledge of his limitation.

So,

@TheButtonmen

: Please claim your limitation in full.

are there any players you think are from the faction that killed xvart AND more likely to be evil than MacLock? Because we should go for our greatest odds at catching a baddie.

Yes, I am voting for him.

Kinetic probably does have a PR, a scum PR that is.

What?

I mean just iso me and it's obvious that I'm super townie and awesome scumhunter thats why Mac, and Percy are trying to lynch me.

I encourage you to follow his directions, people, and see whether you come to his suggested conclusion, or mine.


So, who to lynch, who to lynch, who to lynch.

Right now I'm still thinking Raivann, but I want TheButtonmen to answer my two questions/requests before I make up my mind. I could get down with a The Inq lynch also.

[Confucius]

No. If The Inquisition is a BP SK, he didn't kill anyone last night, which is very odd.

FoS: Percy

.

He who knows too much for the wrong reasons is often scum.

[Seacore]

Yes, there is the possibility that Inq is an SK and Mac is mafia

[Percy]

He who knows too much for the wrong reasons is often scum.

OK, I'll admit that ruling that out as a possibility is premature, and I deserve the FoS; it was a hasty conclusion I shouldn't have jumped to, so I'll clarify.

I find it

much

less likely than the other options I have proposed; in particular, it assumes a town RBer and/or Doc to prevent the scumteam kill; It assumes a scumteam on top of the SK as well, but I don't think that's an outrageous assumption.

Also, I was responding directly to Raivann, who was suggesting that BPSK was the explanation he should accept. I don't think anyone is asking him to accept that The Inq is necessarily BPSK; rather, that on the balance of probabilities, The Inq is scum with one or two shots of BP.

I just had an idea, though. Perhaps keeping TBM alive tonight is optimum play; if you're a watcher, you can watch TBM and determine whether someone targeted him, and if so, who it is. If you're a tracker, you force scum-TBM to either claim being blocked again (which would disallow a scum RBer to block the vig kill without outing TBM as a liar - again, I'm assuming there isn't a town RB + scum RB, but I don't think that's outrageous) and not submit an action, or if he's town, you won't be able to tell the difference between town-TBM and scum-TBM if he is blocked or claims to be blocked, but if he's not blocked, then you can confirm that he targeted someone with a (non-killing) action. I think this scenario is better if you're a watcher, but it could give us more info on whether to believe TBM.

Perhaps there's an argument to keep TBM alive...? Still, I fear going down this setup-analysis trying-to-outguess-mod juggling-claims angle, because it has ended quite badly for me

once before

and I'm happy to admit that I fucked that game pretty hard because I thought I knew more than I did, and I am probably making the same mistakes again. Looks like I just can't help myself.

Once TBM answers my questions I'll make up my mind.

[Confucius]

Percy, please explain why you agree that you deserve the FoS. What conclusion did you jump to? Why do you believe it is a jump? What should your conclusion have been?

[Percy]

I shouldn't have jumped to the conclusion that The Inquisition was not BP SK due to there only being one NK.

Assuming The Inq BPSK and ML Vig, it is entirely possible that there are three factions with killing roles - the scumteam, the SK (The Inq) and the vig (ML), and that the scumteam's kill was prevented in some fashion, whilst ML's kill was prevented on The Inq by BP.

It's also possible that ML is scum and targeted The Inq BPSK with the scum nightkill, with The Inq targeting xvart successfully.

I originally discounted these ideas, because I believe ML is not scum and find it too big a leap to assume there are 3 NKs and two of these kills were prevented - it ends up with too many PRs and kills for my liking. But it

is

a possibility, and my discounting that possibility

justifiably

leads to questioning exactly why I discounted it (hence why I said I deserved the FoS).

All I can say is that it was an honest mistake, made while clarifying to Raivann the fact that other (more likely, imo) interpretations of the current claim-state exist beyond The Inq-BPSK.

[Mina]

Ugh.

I'm torn right now. I'm honestly torn.

I keep on starting a post, and then deleting it. Because I've been weighing the pros and cons of saying what I want to say, but I'm starting to think it would just be winning the battle and losing the war. It's so frustrating for me to read posts and want to scream at how. But maybe I'll just keep my mouth shut.

Dammit, I hate WIFOM. I'm much more comfortable just being open with my opinions, and to hell with whether it'll screw over the town in a day or two.

It's 3:15 AM, and I have to wake up early tomorrow morning. And unfortunately, I won't have much time to contribute before the deadline. Too bad, because I really wanted to reread everyone in iso and organize my nebulous suspicions into some kind of hierarchy. Right now, I see lots of scummy or antitown behaviour, but no clear leader among the pack.

Right now I'll

Vote: TheButtonmen

. He's my preference for a lynch if I decide to bite the bullet and go for xvart's killers, although I may move this vote depending on his answer to Percy's questions (nice job catching that slip, Percy). But Inquisition's disappearance is starting to frustrate me.

I've been less than thrilled with Locke's most recent contributions, as well. I find Locke very forgettable. Somehow, I can never quite pin anything down on him--I ask him a question, and he responds with a perfectly reasonable, two-sentence response that sounds consistent and insightful. But he's too cautious. Most of his suspicions are either going with the flow or attempting to slow down scumhunting momentum (for example, defending MacavityLock before). I don't think he's seriously pressured anyone all game. He fits the scum profile very well. Maybe I'll give examples of what I mean when I have time. Has anyone played with Locke before? Is it in character for him to be this low-key? Maybe I'm just biased against players whose posts are two paragraphs or less.

Raivann is...um, not doing a very good job of making people take him seriously. At all. Hint for next time: "he is scum, so I'm not worried about outing a PR" and "he is scum because he can't see what an awesome townie I am" is not reasoning that will convince anyone. But I'm still reluctant to lynch him.

[Mina]

EBWOP: "It's so frustrating for me to read posts that make me want to scream at their holes in logic or obliviousness...and force myself not to respond."

Where does he imply limited shots?

Never mind, this was the quote I meant:

Respectfully, I would prefer not to answer this question, as I'd prefer for scum to know as little about my role as possible. I will say that if I have a limited number of kills, I have not yet run out of them, and thus my role is still potentially confirmable via my claimed kill method.

I remembered him having said the "if I have a limited number of kills" line unprompted, but this was only after Confucius pressured him to reveal his limitation. So he never implied limited shots.

But why haven't you responded to my question from, like, a week ago!

[TheButtonmen]

C) My limitation will result in me getting No Result not a false one,

Hold on, didn't you say the only way you could get No Result was as the result of a RB?!

No.

@Conf:

Do you stop being able to use your power at some point / if some condition is met?

[TheButtonmen]

@Mina:

Which one?

[Locke Lamora]

Mina: you can check my wiki for a bunch of my games and decide for yourself. Honestly, I'm having trouble getting good reads off this game and the wave of PR claims that has hit us has added a whole new dimension to deciding who to vote.

Raivann:

And we got 3 other limited PR's. I think there is no vig and Mac is scum.
Out of the four claimed PR's, his claim doesn't fit.

Are you saying that was just irrelevant? You imply that Mac's non-limited vig powers don't fit with the other claims. The fact that you wouldn't have cared if he was limited makes me think you're just gunning to lynch him whatever.

[Faraday]

Day 2.14 vote-count. The

"

You are quick, for a dancing master,’ said Ser Meryn.
‘You are slow, for a knight,’ Syrio replied.

votecount.

Seacore (1) [The Inquisition]
MacavityLock (2) [TheButtonMen, Raivann]
Raivann (2) [MacavityLock, Percy]
TheButtonMen (3) [Confucius, Seacore, Mina]
Not voting: (2) Kinetic, Locke Lamora]

Deadline: March 25th @ 6pm GMT.
That's just 25 hours away untill deadline. A full majority is required to lynch remember!

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

[Locke Lamora]

I've found out I'm going to be pretty busy the next few days and I'm not sure how much I'll be able to post before deadline. I was getting pro-town vibes from Raivann's consideration of the PR limitations but the fact that he stated that Mac's lack of limits was a factor and now admits it makes no difference to him just makes me think he's set on lynching Mac whatever.

Vote: Raivann

Mod: possible V/LA until Monday.

[The Inquisition]

getting to this as soon I have a moment today. Been busy playing catchup at work since my ski trip.

[Kinetic]

vote:Raiv

Close enough to deadline where a vote will be needed one way or the other.

[Seacore]

Unvote. Vote Raivann

We need a kill

[Seacore]

Also, my recommendations for a Vig are Button and Inq

[Kinetic]

Raiv is at -1. If you're going to claim, now is the time.

[GLaDOS]

@Conf: Do you stop being able to use your power at some point / if some condition is met?

If my action on a given night involves approaching fire, I will not do it. That is all I have been able to glean.

I have to say I do not like the feel of this counterwagon. It feels like I am watching the last-minute Heilograph lynch a second time.

I will only vote Raivann if I feel it will prevent a No Lynch.

Mod Note: This is from Confucius