A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[Mina]

I was intending this to be much shorter. Ack, trying to make yet another wall more readable by splitting it into several posts.

Part I: CSL and SSBF

I have a bigger scumread off of CMAR right now.

And...what is the scumread based on? Why do you suspect CMAR more than Raivann? Why do you suspect CMAR, in fact?

Raivann can wait until tomorrow.

So if you're saying we should lynch Raivann tomorrow, are you implying that he's your second top suspect? Do you suspect him more than

Kleedrac

, who you seemed convinced was scum before? Why do you suspect Raivann?

I have another question for you after you answer these.

(Oh, and since I have no manners, welcome to the game, CSL, Budja, and Thor. Thanks for replacing in.)

SSBF was town with that massive wagon analsys post from way back when..

Although he's made a lot of misplays and bad arguments, I felt the same way (which is why I never followed up on my original "parroting" line of questioning). In my experience, scum are usually reluctant to post cases and concrete opinions on multiple players, because they risk linking themselves to their buddies. (Instead, they tend to either attack one player at a time or post wishy-washy generalities on everyone; I think the post Unsight just linked to of SSBF's scum play falls into the latter category, but maybe I'll compare his BW analysis post later to see if it was as substantial as I remember.)

I'm paradoxically getting town vibes from julienvonwolfe, MacavityLock, Drippereth AND (to a much lesser extent) SSBF. To be honest, I'm swimming in townreads.

[xvart]

@xvart
It was hypothetical. Talking about "Kleedrac"-town doesn't mean that I think he is town, it's just saying if he WAS town, etc. This is how the phrase is used across the board, so I really don't know where you got your crazy ideas.

The problem as I see it is that you aren't even confident in either of the lynches you propose. You leave yourself outs by saying "these are the only three options: however, if X is town we are still in good shape; if Y is town we are still in good shape; etc. I also don't like the fact that you are basing your lynch strategy on the basis of considering both to be town or both to be scum. It just doesn't make sense because you are saying that the lynch should be Kleedrac because if Kleedrac is town it's not as big a deal as opposed to lynching town-Raivann. Is that a correct interpretation?

SSBF was town with that massive wagon analsys post from way back when..

Scum can't analyze wagons? You are basing your whole read on SSBF based on one post?

BAM! There's scum on that. Tons of 'em.
SO Lynchme's tow, we're town, dana's town, vezo's town, miku's town.

I'll ask again: where does your town read on dana come from? I don't recall you posting anything...

anything

about dana other than "dana is town." Please enlighten me.

xvart.

[Drippereth]

There was probably more, but what's wrong with getting a read off one post? I do it quite often with a fair amount of accuracy.

[Rifka Viveka]

@Rifka Viveka: I see you're on "hammer duty", but will you hammer anyone who gets to L-1?

I had to abandon that in order to pursue the lynch getting done at all. No to the second

I have a Q for everyone wagoning CMAR. That is, have you done a sitewide ISO on this player especially in games like ''go play in traffic''? This is looking suspiciously like a policy lynch. How are you distinguishing scum-CMAR from town-CMAR in this situation?

[Drippereth]

I don't remember having a CMAR lurking-scummeta. He was uberactive in the game with him where he was scum, (Mafia in Mendo, in New York).
That's also the same game where the whole contract thing from waaaaaaaay earlier was probably shown to him.
Yeah.
What happened in that traffic game?

[Mina]

Ninja'd.

Part II: Percy

@Mina: Did you ever get around to reading my meta?

The reason I asked you for meta in the first place was because I followed Gonzo Mafia and remembered that you said you were "excellent as scum and bad as town." And three new people raising you every time you posted did nothing to ease my paranoia.

I skim-iso'd you in Molinero's Mafia before the move (although now the links aren't working). Ever since then, ha ha, I've been kind of terrified of you. All those big, sensible posts with lots of detail and analysis....

So as much as I've disliked the Migwelloni/Kinetic slot's play, I can understand him being paranoid. (Mind you, I'm kind of enjoying the HOW CAN YOU TELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THAT FIENDISH MINA'S TOWN AND SCUM PLAY talk. I'm pretending it's because I looked uber-townish in AGoT and not because I don't look townish now.)

You sound pretty genuine, and look more townish than you did in Gonzo. My only lingering doubt is that you seemed more emotional and more willing to ruffle feathers in the two town games I've seen you in. I know that my instinct as scum is to shirk away from 1 v. 1s and from conflict with other players (when I'm not trying to lynch the "serial killer," anyway). Likewise, you tend to post intelligent, detached observations but mostly stay out of the fray. What I remember of Molinero Mafia showed me that you can easily do that as scum. Also, although I have no clue why dana flipped out at me over my having trouble understanding a post of his, I thought your evidence for his "flip-flop" on Raivann was a bit stretchy.

Either way, if you're scum and we really are in a multiple-faction game, then you've kind of shot yourself in the

Hand

foot by getting Raised.

Percy, do you see any difference between Raivann's play here and in the mini? You suspected him there as well, and he flipped town. MacavityLock thinks he's acting similarly here. I'm not just imagining that Raivann wasn't a total lunatic there, am I? Maybe I'll check out his scum game later.

[Mina]

Part III: The Lynch Options

I still prefer the Raivann lynch to the CMAR and Kleedrac/Budja ones.

If I had a nickel for every time a suspect flaked on the game, someone proclaimed, "Look, he hasn't posted in days even though there's a wagon on him! He must be scum!" and everyone to pile on his lynch, only for the lurker to flip town....

Can I pass my pet Raivann wagon off as a lurkerscum-lynch, too? He hasn't posted since Thursday or answered my questions.

The way the CMAR wagon has developed looks very dodgy. Also, I've reread the beginning of the game. To be honest, I really got a town read from CMAR's early posts. Yes, I can understand why his contract and RVS = over could be construed as "fake helpful," but it comes across to me as an overeager townie trying too hard to me. I have no idea what the hell happened to him since then. His unprompted softclaim, in particular, was just a total nutjob move. Still, not sold on his lynch anymore.

That said, I'm VERY interested to see his reaction to the wagon on him.

Kleedrac/Budja still isn't my favourite lynch--particularly since I think both town AND scum throw temper tantrums under pressure and use AtEs. (I'll admit that I often subconsciously appeal to people's emotions as town; sometimes, sincerity and passion are better proof of someone's towniness than a point-by-point defence.) I'm willing to give Budja a chance to prove himself. Also, I just realized something. If it turns out that this is a multi-faction game, then "appearing to know that Richard is town" means nothing. Because if Kleedrac is scum, then either Richard is Kleedrac's scumbuddy (in which case Dripp claims he'd never defend Richard) or Kleedrac genuinely doesn't know the alignments of most of the players in the game. Let's see how many kills there are tonight.

[Rifka Viveka]

What happened in that traffic game?

In that game he claimed NK immune GF in twilight as cop heading into lylo, but its not like he is doing hot in other games i read, finished or otherwise...

[Mina]

BAM! There's scum on that. Tons of 'em.
SO Lynchme's tow, we're town, dana's town, vezo's town, miku's town.

I'll ask again: where does your town read on dana come from? I don't recall you posting anything...

anything

about dana other than "dana is town." Please enlighten me.xvart.

I'd be more interested in hearing where the town read on vezo comes from.

[Drippereth]

THAT ONE'S EASY.
The early soft-claim was so uberly towny.

[Percy]

Those 3 posts reek of town though

I don't see it.

I have a bigger scumread off of CMAR right now.

Why?

@danakillsu

: So now we've gone from "assert the opposite" to "you haven't proved nuffink" approach, how cute.
Your read on Raivann

has

changed; at least, if you've always thought that Raivann was almost sort of vaguely not quite but just about as scummy as Kleedrac, you did not make that clear until pressured.

Even if

you insist that it hasn't changed, you haven't done anything about your Raivann read beyond introduce contrived arguments about how they're all the same sort of scummy townie on the balance of probabilities whatever I don't even. There have been no attempts to analyse Raivann beyond what has been dragged out of you.
And now, let's put this together:
-You think Raivann is just as scummy as Kleedrac/Budja.
-You think CMAR is town, or at least think there hasn't been anything out of the ordinary from that slot.
-CMAR is on 9 votes. Raivann is on 7. And yet you leave your vote on Budja, saying "a lynch on CMAR is better than NL".

Right now

is the time to be pressuring Raivann or pushing the Raivann wagon over the CMAR wagon, rather than throwing up your hands, sitting out and pouting about it. You have never had any conviction behind your Raivann read, and it shows. Same goes for your CMAR read.

dana is scum, and Raivann is his buddy.

@Unsight

: Now that you've seen it, what do you think of it?
Also, I think it's odd to criticise the order in which a case was presented without commenting on the substantive matter of the case itself, which is another reason I asked.

@Rifka Viveka

: Sorry, I missed your vote

@Mina

: I thought Raivann was scum for his case against me in the mini; I thought he was trying to push the mislynch on the slot I replaced into, and didn't explain himself very well, especially with the unvote/vote shenanigans.
This is similar to how he's playing this game in some ways, but his play is far more opportunistic, lurky and inconsistent here. I also have a strong dana/Raivann buddy read, which is bolstering my scumread on Raivann.
Also, I tunnel too easily as town. It can be fucking disastrous, and that game happened really recently and I'm still reeling from shock...

[LimMePls]

@LynchMePls

: What did you like about julienvonwolfe's post?

Its more a general appreciation of the quality of his catchup posts than specific points he makes. I love when a player replaces in and actually does a comprehensive reread with WALL-O-TEXT followup. I like it for two reasons: 1) It gives us a fresh perspective on the game, since we see things colored by how they occured over time, while the new player has a chance to see all the events rapidly. 2) They actually take a stand on the events, giving us immediate information on them. Even doubly so if they ask questions of players, as that forces interactions with the player who replaced in, allowing us to more easily get a read on them. People who do these kinds of posts when they replace in get a thumbs up from me. Those who say "I'm gonna catch up" and then just post a one line "Here is who I'm voting" post irk me. When a slot was so bad it needed replacement, the last thing I want it filled with is a lurker who refuses to interact with the game or at the very least provide a comprehensive "this is my take on the major issues of the game" post.

I am still happy with the CMAR lynch. I also think that between the CMAR and Raivann wagons, the CMAR wagon has more players I read as town than the Raivann wagon. Someone (Mina I think) raised a concern about players who flake getting wagons almost always flipping pro-town. I don't have near the experience in forum mafia to know if that is true or not, but it sounds anecdotal and not very persuasive. CMAR's play is scummy. His early play being "pro-town" makes no sense to me. Why can't scum try to gain town cred by declaring RVS over? Why can't scum propose that contract? Why can't scum build a really early case on someone? In fact, any of his early play that could be called pro-town is completely obliterated by his follow up play.

I do not think my vote is a policy lynch. His lurking is troublesome, but his play is worse. The unvote of Richard stunk to high heaven, as did the "gonna analyze the wagon" statement followed by no wagon analysis. The fact that he won't respond to the questions on him only makes it worse.

[Thor665]

Greetings,

As promised this is my late Monday update (I suppose officially early Tuesday, but let's not go into that semantic discussion)

I'm currently on page 10 of my read through (verily doth there be some mighty walls back here and ne'er doth it appear to change moving forward). I've also been more or less following the current discussion since my first post. As far as I can tell Richard has had pressure slip away due to a claim of some sort, it'll be interesting to see what that is as back on Page 10 he was campaigning loudly for more votes to be placed upon him. I also really got some nasty vibes off Dr. Modem, but his replacement hasdgfas came in strongly town and has left that read muddled.

The current excitement appears to be all about Riv (deer back where I'm reading) CMAR and Budja (who I've only known as Kleedac and appears to just be lurking at least up through what I've read, though from what I can infer is absorbing some votes because of a emotional flare up and/or AtE he did during the game).

The CMAR wagon appears to be based mostly on lurking (which is not an unreasonable plot in a larger game like this, but is hardly a case written on magical paper from the land of win), and him trying to be very proactive in his early posts. I actually got a reasonable townie read off CMAR thus far in my read - he appears like excited newbie more then scum to me, I certainly think the heat he got for "ending the RVS" and suggesting the contract was meaningless. The Budja case appears to be focused on an emotional outburst by the player, which I will admit I react negatively to them as well, but I have yet to find any sort of legitimate connection between emotions and scumminess. In short my current read says that CMAR is an excited newb who is more likely a planned mislynch then a plotting scum. I also think Budja is probably getting undue attention for the flare up, making the votes perhaps more policy then scum related.

I am liking both Mina and Percy's recent posts as they appear thought out, both of them feel scum on Raivann, and I certainly have a decent gut scum read on deer from what I've seen thus far on pages 1-10. I'd rather lynch deer/Raiv then CMAR who appears the other top suspect, so let's try to get this wagon in gear as well.

Vote: Raivann

If anyone thinks my vote is fail because of something between page 10 and here then please drop me a link or inform me about what I'm missing and I'll take it into consideration. Otherwise please consider joining us, we have cookies.

[LimMePls]

I also think that between the CMAR and Raivann wagons, the CMAR wagon has more players I read as town than the Raivann wagon.

Eww, you know what, I just flipped this thought around, and looked at these wagons for "which of them has more scum reads from me" and I gotta say it's the CMAR wagon. I don't like Richard and I don't like Axelrod, they are two of my strongest scum reads. Not sure what to make of this.

[Mina]

Someone (Mina I think) raised a concern about players who flake getting wagons almost always flipping pro-town. I don't have near the experience in forum mafia to know if that is true or not, but it sounds anecdotal and not very persuasive.

I don't think it's a towntell. Come to think of it, I've seen it happen twice to scum (ortolan/Cobalt in the Gonzo game I mentioned and SocioPath in Mini 876--although SocioPath claimed afterward that he hadn't noticed the wagon on him). It's just that I've often seen town flake under pressure and neglect games (kpaca in Fables Mafia, at least two players in the A Game of Thrones mini). So I'm becoming increasingly disillusioned with flaking or posting elsewhere on-site as a scumtell--which sucks, because there's definitely an incentive for scum to lurk.

Axelrod, are you voting CMAR

only

because of his recent lurking? You seemed to genuinely suspect Raivann before. Your vote post implies you're only voting CMAR because CMAR is the least active of the three viable wagons.

LynchMePls, I think that towntells are as useful as scumtells. (In fact, my town reads are usually much more accurate than my scum reads early in the game.) My read on CMAR is the same as Thor's (although Thor hasn't got to the weird Axelrod sycophancy and softclaim yet).

-----------------
By the way, anyone notice that Kinetic remembered to raise in his catch-up post (even though Percy was at R-1 and I was trailing by eleven raise votes), but didn't vote? Actually, does Kinetic even

have

suspects?

It would be very funny, though, if this game was similar to the last where one of the scum fake-claimed the OTHER scum's real role, lol.

Kinetic, do you have any reason to believe that Renly and Loras are scum roles?

[Mina]

@mods:

Players who need a good hard prod:

Raivann: Hasn't posted since Thursday, June 17, 12:19 AM
Super Smash Bros. Fan: Hasn't posted since Thursday, June 17, 11:55 PM
Benmage: Hasn't posted since Friday, June 18, 12:26 AM
CryMeARiver: Hasn't posted since Friday, June 18, 7:00 PM

We definitely want Raivann and CMAR around. And I still have questions for Benmage.

Mod ~ All 4 have been prodded. However, the deadline will not be extended further.

[Mina]

Almost forgot:

And now, let's put this together:
-You think Raivann is just as scummy as Kleedrac/Budja.
-You think CMAR is town, or at least think there hasn't been anything out of the ordinary from that slot.
-CMAR is on 9 votes. Raivann is on 7. And yet you leave your vote on Budja, saying "a lynch on CMAR is better than NL".
Right now is the time to be pressuring Raivann or pushing the Raivann wagon over the CMAR wagon, rather than throwing up your hands, sitting out and pouting about it. You have never had any conviction behind your Raivann read, and it shows. Same goes for your CMAR read.

NICE CATCH!

Now I'll stop spamming.

[Raivann]

Well not much has changed.
Richard is still scum, Mina sure seems scared to leave me alive. Percy seems to always wanna lynch me.
Thor's post seems scummy to me as well, he is making sure not to offend.
I get townvibes off lynchmepls,xvart,drippereth.
I'm not a fan of either mine or CMAR wagons, but..

unvote, Vote:CMAR

To save my own ass and he has totally disappeared, he's not even voting anyone.

Be careful trusting Mina, she's really good at this game.

p.s. Name of the Wind is a must read!

Mod ~ This is truth. When is the next book coming out?

[julienvonwolfe]

Looks like I need to clarify my MacavityLock case.

Firstly, however: he argues that my entire case on him is built on SSBF scum, as seen in the quote below. I respectfully disagree that scumhunting effective scumhunting on Day One should not include searching for links between players as I have in my case towards him. I propose to him in reply that it is entirely essential that this case be made on him now, since once we do have SSBF's flip, ML's bussing - if indeed that is what it is - would be complete and would allow him, if scum, to enjoy the benefits of that.

Secondly, to clarify the specifics of the case. Simply put, I think his approach to SSBF looks like scum carefully distancing:

Post One, on pg 16. ML is critical of the way SSBF nominated ML as a candiate for Raising (note that I think ML's reply to me on this point is BS and that his real motivation was "HOLYSHIT BUS THIS GUY", but I digress). ML is also critical of SSBF's views on leaving Richard at L-1, and calls the excessive FOSes that SSBF uses 'a bit scummy'.

Compare this language to this on pg 24 where that 'a bit scummy' has turned into "one of the biggest reasons that [he thinks] that SSBF is scummy," and despite having meta of SSBF's FOSes provided at that. Tenuous? Yes. That's why I said it was tenuous, but I think it is probably a manifestation of the 'carefully distancing' behaviour that I believe we see here between the two of them.

While I'm dealing with my case on ML I'll add this to it, where I would argue that we see more of the careful distancing happening: ML again thinks SSBF scummy but inexplicably finds somebody more scummy to target. Not so bad but in his latest post, ML does this again: it's hidden in his list of suspects, but he finds SSBF scummy and

still

chooses to vote somebody else!


To conclude, I reluctantly agree with ML that all we can do is lynch or vig SSBF at some point and then look at ML's interactions, and that then this case might be more useful, assuming SSBF flips scum - which I really think he should. I'm voting Raivann at this point because he's the most likely lynch, but I'm okay with that because he fits into my hypothetical SSBF - ML - Rai - Drip scumteam. I think it's a pretty good case, but I admit my own bias and probable tunnelvision as author. I find Percy's interrogation of dana troubling because I agree that dana looks bad, and I'm not sure how to fit it in to my view of the game yet.


Finally, LynchMePls, I'm glad you liked my case. What do you think about the specific aspects of it, though?

I truly think Rai (well, SSBF actually, but I can be realistic) a better lynch than CMAR; I don't see the trouble in CMAR's quick unvote, as unvoting after a claim is common on this site and it is not impossible that an impulsive player would do this as town. Also, promising to provide more content as CMAR did, and then not delivering it, as CMAR has not, is hardly restricted to scum alone.

[I doubt it]

I truly think Rai (well, SSBF actually, but I can be realistic) a better lynch than CMAR; I don't see the trouble in CMAR's quick unvote, as unvoting after a claim is common on this site and it is not impossible that an impulsive player would do this as town. Also, promising to provide more content as CMAR did, and then not delivering it, as CMAR has not, is hardly restricted to scum alone.

I agree with Raivann being the better lynch, but I will add that the two minute unvote also seems like active lurking as opposed to just an impulsive decision to unvote.

Another note about CMAR:

You know what? I'd advocate a CMAR nameclaim (not a roleclaim) now. I'm saying this because names were only tangentially related to roles in the mini (important characters didn't have important roles). This quote along with the horrible cop breadcrumb make no sense.

I fully support this. If he has any notion to survive this day his next post should include at least this, when we're this close to deadline.

[Axelrod]

Axelrod, are you voting CMAR

only

because of his recent lurking? You seemed to genuinely suspect Raivann before. Your vote post implies you're only voting CMAR because CMAR is the least active of the three viable wagons.

It would be fair to say that this was what tipped my vote to CMAR. I was looking at all three of the vote leaders, and CMAR's flaking out over the past two weeks looked the worst. I also do kind of like the point LynchMePls raised about the suspicious nature of his Richard unvote. I asked him a question about it and, of course, he hasn't answered it.

I was and remain willing to consider alternatives. I was hoping he'd come back and post. I know he's been posting in other games on this site. His continued absense is not making me want to change the vote. Raivann's last post doesn't give me any confidence in him either, and I consider it a viable alternative, but, then again, a least it was a post. Budja has only made one post, in which he said he wouldn't be able to post more until maybe today? So I'm waiting for that too.

[Eddard Stark]

Vote count 1.22: The

"Love is poison. A sweet poison, yes, but it will kill you all the same. "

votecount

.

Lynch Count

Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) -

Unsight

CryMeARiver (10) -

Hasdgfas, LynchmePls, MacavityLock, RichardGHP, xvart, vezopiraka, Axelrod, MagnaofIllusion, CSL , Raivann

Drippereth (2) -

Benmage, Budja

Budja (3) -

Drippereth, Super Smash Bros. Fan, danakillsu

Raivann (8)

Mina, Mikujin, Locke Lamora, julienvonwolfe, I doubt it, Rifka Vivieka, Percy,Thor665

Not voting to Lynch (2) - CryMeARiver, Kinetic




The deadline for today's lynch is

10:00pm EST on Thursday the 24th of June

. You can view a countdown to the deadline

here

.

[danakillsu]

It just doesn't make sense because you are saying that the lynch should be Kleedrac because if Kleedrac is town it's not as big a deal as opposed to lynching town-Raivann. Is that a correct interpretation?

This seems to be correct. Don't forget, however, that I do find both scummy, and Kleedrac perhaps a little scummier.

unvote vote:Raivann

Since there's almost no one on the Budja wagon anymore.
And Percy, again, don't bother saying anything to me unless you actually prove something instead of just stating it. You STILL have not quoted any posts where I changed my mind or contradicted myself, but you want to call me Raivann's scumpal.

fos: Percy

[Axelrod]

I also agree with whoever said CMAR, assuming he comes back, needs to just go ahead and claim asap.

[vezokpiraka]

Deadline is tomorrow.
Please people from the raviann wagon or the CMAR wagon move your votes on one of them. I don't want this day to end in a mis lynch.