Okay, first to answer Vezo from our QT:
The reason I said that scums would not want to crosskill last night is extremely simple -- it's the numbers game. In three days, the town had lynched two scums. Even with two nightkills one night, that put us well head in the numbers game. Crosskilling last night would only have put the scums in an even DEEPER hole, because not only would scums be dead by lynch, but they'd be killing each other off while we just chilled the fuck out and picked out the last ones.
As things stand now, even with two protown deaths, there are probably 2 Geostigma, 2 Mitochondrial, and 6 town. 2 members of your own faction is not very much. But if you can get the town working on lynching one group while killing off spare townies, a scumgroup could feasibly win in two days, EVEN IF WE LYNCH SCUMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. (Incidentally, that's why I hate 2-scumgroup setups. Most of them are entirely too dependent upon when/if/howmany crosskills there are. No town should ever lynch four scums in 5 days and still lose.)
Now, wagon analysisisisisis.
First big wagon was on Quadz. It capped out at around 7 votes, I believe:
Fate
,
inHimshallibe
,
Nautilius
, bv310,
Devotress
, xRECKONERx, Midnight's Sorrow
This wagon is surprisingly town-driven, though inHim falls in at that key #3 spot (Reck was actually second on the wagon, but unvoted and revoted). BV, whose alignment is unknown (but who has basically skated by so far) is in at #5. Reck is probably protown, and Midnight... I'm not sure. I keep getting mixed signals from Midnight.
After that, we got hit with a Dram counterwagon. Prana was in a key position on this, as was BV. Possible Quadz/Prana or Quadz/BV connections noted. PRana/BV were #3 and #4 on the Dramwagon. Quick triplevote on BV from {Devo, Midnight, Fate} went nowhere, before Dram picked up steam again (courtesy of Fate and gandalf/Vezo).
Fate/Reck/Midnight/Chrono all move to Quadz, putting him ahead of Dram 7-4.
Zazie in for Blaze, and immediately goes after Dram. Then Midnight back to Dram (oh god the flipfloppery), Fate to Dram, Prana to Reck (because Reck was anti-Quadz and pro-Dram... VERY weird
Post 293, Bill to Quadz. BV to Dram, inHim sheeps Zazie onto Dram (*major alarms*).
My own posting D1 was pretty shitty, except that I was right about a
massive Chrono/Fate connection. Unfortunately, Fate was being retarded, and Chrono wasn't much better so I took it and ran in the COMPLETELY WRONG DIRECTION. :/
I will, however, readily answer any
Bill jumps from Quadz to Chrono.... then deadline approaches, and Dram takes the fall.
So, Quadz is kind of a questionmark in that he may very well be scum... but the end-of-day rival wagons were both on protown players. If Quadz is scum, then his scumbuddies will be found largely off-wagon (or in a late busing position) but readily willing to switch to Dram and/or Chrono. But I'm still not that convinced that Quadz is scum. IDK, I'd have to isolate his posts or something.
IF
Quadz is scum, then he's almost certainly on the OTHER team from inHim. inHim was in a prime "scum pile onto wagon" position. I could see any one of a few people being Quadz' scumbuddy, but Zazie stands out most. After a very reasonable entrance into the game, Zazie has been SUPERDUPERLURKERSCUM. Regardless of Quadz' alignment, I'd like to see buttloads of pressure on Zazie today.
Also, I could definitely see BV being scum (probably buddies with inHim) after D1. Bad place on the Quadzwagon, bad move onto Reck, and jumped to Chrono without a care in the world.
D2 coming up in just a bit.
