A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[Mina]

Right now, I don't have time to do a huge post with analysis.

NO ONE QUICKLYNCH CSL YET!

Because although I let more than my fair share of steam about that hogwash hammer in the QT last night (and called CSL some nasty names)....I have the sneaking suspicion that he might be town.

(I was actually growing more suspicious of diddin, but his interactions with CSL today are looking townish.)

Mikujin deserves an A+ for his distancing from Raivann and a D- for his common sense. Note to him for next time, when you're in a two-faction game and the other team's killer is still alive, don't make posts like these:

I really want to hear from Locke

After receiving my results, I am quite confident Locke won't have anything new to report. Excepting, of course, that my interpretation of things is correct. Everything about this assumption hinges on my being correct about how actions resolve. Lots of room to be wrong on that note, I'd assume.

Right now I'm looking to hear from Locke about his results before I delve any deeper into what I know. On the off-chance I'm correct in some of my assumptions, I know something that doesn't really do much for us moving forward, but can at least explain a few things. Don't know if I'd be ousting anyone else in the process, however.

xvart flipping Lannister means we're probably down one scumteam, though, if I'm not mistaken. Very easy to be wrong about this, of course, but we've seen three Lannister flips now. And with many theories thinking we're dealing with 3-3-?, using the double-lynch effectively is going to be top priority.

Really standing behind SSBF / CSL (again) today. The idea of trusting the SK while we potential damn two other town players isn't something I want to do; CSL is still about as useful as he has been in the past, and I'd have no qualms seeing him burn.

Also, reread Mikujin's interactions with Axel on D5. Clearly, there's some I-know-you-know-I-know going on. The obvious conclusion is that Miku watched Locke and saw both xvart and probably Axelrod target him. So we know that the last Greyjoy knew Axelrod was probably the doctor (unless the scum don't have daytalk, and Mikujin wasn't as smart as my scumteam was in the minigame ). That makes it extremely likely he was on Axelrod's lynch mob. So in other words, MoI and CSL are more likely Greyjoys, while Unsight (who preferred a CSL lynch) or Macavitar would be less likely ones.

When I get home, I'll do some more analysis.

[CSL]

Nasty names? Are they far better or far worse than the ones you called me in-thread after-hammer?

That said, I need to step up my game if I'm going to live through it.

[Mina]

Um...no comment. Sorry.

That said, I think I lashed out because I was angry at myself for having let it get that far, so I took it out on you.

I'd also be in favour of a massclaim at this point, also--although I'd first like to know if Cow thinks that's wise when he posts today.

I've already full-claimed in the QT to Cow (since it couldn't hurt, him being confirmed town at all). Even more surprisingly, he claimed his role to me (I wouldn't have trusted myself that far). So if there's a massclaim, I think he and I should go last. He can confirm that I'm not changing my story.

[CSL]

I understand.

[hasdgfas]

Hey guys. Guess what. Macavitar is scum.

vote: Macavitar

[hasdgfas]

Claim now. Please and thank you.

[Macavitar]

OK, I'm guessing I know what happened.

Claim:

Catelyn Stark - Mason Recruiter. Each night, I can target one player to find out if they are Brienne of Tarth. I can't tell the difference between a non-Brienne target and a roleblock. If the person I target is Brienne, she and I become mason buddies and become town-confirmed to each other. I have failed to find Brienne of Tarth thus far. My targets:
N1 - Percy
N2 - xvart
N3 - hascow
N4 - Mikujin

[Mina]

Gee. That's quite the creative claim, Macavitar.

Brienne of Tarth, what do you have to say to that?

[Mina]

(Oh, and great job, Cow! I'm so glad you didn't listen to my harebrained suggestion to target diddin.)

[hasdgfas]

Hey Macavitar, I'm Brienne of Tarth. You lose.

[Macavitar]

Then either I was roleblocked, I was JKed, or you were JKed on Night 3.

[hasdgfas]

Hey Macavitar, do you have flavor? Thanks.

[Macavitar]

Sure. I'm Catelyn Stark, widow of the previous Hand of the King. I attempted to ally my son Robb's cause to those of Stannis and Renly Baratheon. However, there have been complications due to the influence that Lady Melisandre's magic has had on Stannis.

This is why I thought there might be some chance at a Melisandre-based scum team.

Is it just me, or is vezo at this point obv-Joffery from a Lannister-type scum group or Stannis from a

Melisandre-type scum group

?

[Mina]

Keep trying.

Vote: Macavitar

Cow, this is why you should have waited until we massclaimed to reveal.

But okay. I'll play along, just for fun.

Firstly, Melisandre was Percy's fakeclaim, so there's no Melisandre
You couldn't have been roleblocked by xvart on N3, because he blocked Locke instead. The evil watcher confirmed it. And Benmage wouldn't have blocked a confirmed townie who hadn't claimed his role over protecting a dayvig who couldn't take a night action or blocking a scummy VT like Unsight (the player

Benmage had voted for on D3

) or CSL. Anyway, Cow would've had an obvious way of knowing he was jailkept.

But let's say Benmage randomly decided to jailkeep you, even though you hadn't claimed and weren't among his top suspects.

1) What would possess you to target Mikujin? Mikujin, who had practically yelled from the rooftops that he was a watcher and was a lock to be nightkilled tonight?

2) Also, why would you target

townish

looking players (hey, I said townish-"looking") you didn't even suspect, if you wanted them to be confirmed to you?

Still, we probably shouldn't take it

too

quickly today. With one kill neutralized (Cow, I take it you saw Mac targeted Mikujin last night, right? Judging by his half-assed claim, anyway?), we have three lynches to lynch three suspects (MagnaofIllusion, CSL, Unsight)...but four if you count me.

We should try to Greyjoy-hunt a little first.

This should still be a win for the town, but it'll be tricky.

I'd also like to hear MagnaofIllusion's claim.

[Mina]

ETA: diddin is cleared because if Macavitar killed Mikujin, then he's the last Lannister. Sandor Clegane is clearly not a Greyjoy.

[CSL]

Wow. That was quick...

VOTE: Macavitar

[Mina]

Just a reminder: Macavitar is now at L-2.

No one else should vote for him unless we're all ready to finish the day.

I'll admit I'm all giddy from the vicarious thrill of secondhandedly catching a bad guy, and tempted to screw everything and leave actual analysis for tomorrow. But at the very least, wait for a claim from MagnaofIllusion first.

[CSL]

Yeah. Don't do the same shit I did yesterDay.

[Macavitar]

Firstly, Melisandre was Percy's fakeclaim, so there's no Melisandre

Check the timeline. My suspicion of the Meli scum group came well before Percy's fakeclaim. (Just checking now: my quote came on Jul 13, Percy's claim came on Jul 23.)

You couldn't have been roleblocked by xvart on N3, because he blocked Locke instead. The evil watcher confirmed it.

Makes sense.

And Benmage wouldn't have blocked a confirmed townie who hadn't claimed his role over protecting a dayvig who couldn't take a night action or blocking a scummy VT like Unsight (the player

Benmage had voted for on D3

) or CSL. Anyway, Cow would've had an obvious way of knowing he was jailkept.

Sure, if hascow was JKed, he'd know and confirm me.

That leaves Benmage JKing me, or a Greyjoy RB left. There's a chance we have symmetric scumteams, right?

1) What would possess you to target Mikujin? Mikujin, who had practically yelled from the rooftops that he was a watcher and was a lock to be nightkilled tonight?

It was between you and Miku. I chose Miku because I doubted that he would do that obv-soft-claim if he were scum. In retrospect, I was clearly wrong about that, and you're right, he was begging to be NKed. I should have targeted you.

2) Also, why would you target

townish

looking players (hey, I said townish-"looking") you didn't even suspect, if you wanted them to be confirmed to you?

The scummier they were, the less likely they were actually Brienne. I'd rather have my ability work on a imperfect target than never work at all.

[diddin]

Good job hasdgfas. We have a confirmed scum and another confirmed townie? That said the massclaim should still happen today and we have plenty of time, so I am not putting down the L-1 vote yet.

[hasdgfas]

Sure. I'm Catelyn Stark, widow of the previous Hand of the King. I attempted to ally my son Robb's cause to those of Stannis and Renly Baratheon. However, there have been complications due to the influence that Lady Melisandre's magic has had on Stannis.

This is why I thought there might be some chance at a Melisandre-based scum team.

Is it just me, or is vezo at this point obv-Joffery from a Lannister-type scum group or Stannis from a

Melisandre-type scum group

?

Honestly, I'm shocked you didn't see my obvious Brienne breadcrumb day 1. I was basically screaming "I'm Brienne".

Also, flavor for your power, not in general.

[Macavitar]

Honestly, I'm shocked you didn't see my obvious Brienne breadcrumb day 1. I was basically screaming "I'm Brienne".

Sorry, I'm bad at finding breadcrumbs. I didn't know you were Brienne until you just claimed, and in fact thought you were specifically not-Brienne after N3.

Also, flavor for your power, not in general.

Paraphrasing as best I can, I am looking for someone I can trust in unfamiliar territory.

[hasdgfas]

Also, flavor for your power, not in general.

Paraphrasing as best I can, I am looking for someone I can trust in unfamiliar territory.

Catelyn Stark didn't trust Brienne until Renly died. While the timeline is a bit messed up here, I'm not sure how well it fits.

Also, would you have been able to talk to me at night?

[diddin]

Also, flavor for your power, not in general.

Paraphrasing as best I can, I am looking for someone I can trust in unfamiliar territory.

Catelyn Stark didn't trust Brienne until Renly died. While the timeline is a bit messed up here, I'm not sure how well it fits.

Also, would you have been able to talk to me at night?

Renly is killed early-mid Clash of Kings, and when that happens Cat flees with Brienne. They do not fully trust each other until late in the story, if I remember correctly.

In Soviet Russia, Breinne hangs Catelyn!

[Macavitar]

Also, flavor for your power, not in general.

Paraphrasing as best I can, I am looking for someone I can trust in unfamiliar territory.

Catelyn Stark didn't trust Brienne until Renly died. While the timeline is a bit messed up here, I'm not sure how well it fits.

I'm not sure what I can say about that. Yes, in the book, Renly died before they hooked up. They end up trusting each other though, so I'm not seeing how this is a huge red flag.

Also, would you have been able to talk to me at night?

Yes, mason buddies.