Square Enix III: (Game over)

[Midnight's Sorrow]

Nah, I';d rather hear you out first, much more entertaining

---

Vote Count:

bv310: 3

(KDub, Glork, bill1148)

bill1148: 2

(bv310, Midnight's Sorrow)

Not Voting:

*****

Lynch:

3 votes.

Deadline:

August 18th - 10:00 AM EST

[bv310]

Let me make this quite clear: I am Town. You'd better be hoping for crosskills tonight.

[Glork]

If that's true, let's look at some numbers:

2 Town, 1 Mito, 1 Geo

Let's assume that MS is Geo, and that the other is unknown.

The Geo will definitely attempt to kill MS.
This would put MS in the unenviable position of determining whether to shoot the person he thinks is the other scum, or whether he tries to shoot a townie.

-- If he shoots town, the other scum wins.
-- If he shoots and kills the other scum, the town wins.
-- If he shoots but fails to kill the other scum, or if he elects not to make a kill, then we'll have 3 alive with 1 scum tomorrow.


And yes, this does presume that MS is scum. I'm pretty sure that KDub and Bill both legit believe that. If BV is indeed town, they're probably hoping that Midnight will try to kill, but accidentally kill a townperson, giving them an autowin.

MS, if you're scum, you CANNOT win. The only thing you can hope to do is nokill to give the town (

and your former life, remember

) a chance to win, unless you are 100% POSITIVE that you know who other scumbag is. I'm not interested in any of your pointless blathering or banter here. You can choose to agree with me that KDub/Glork/Bill all think you are scum and would try to crosskill you, or not. That doesn't matter to me in the slightest. But looking at the numbers, if you are scum, you are pretty much completely screwed (unless YOU are an NK-Immune godfather from Mito). Please take the time to think about the situation you're in, and what your options are. I really don't want you to blow this for both your former protown-self AND your current scum-self by being obtuse or short-sighted and hitting a townsperson tonight.

[Glork]

BV, do you still think that the last two scums are KDub/Bill? Why/why not? If you do think someone else is scum, who is it, and why?

[Glork]

Actually, I guess if MS's current life is also protown, there's no way he could win that either. I wonder if it's against the spirit of the game to play for your former life to win, if indeed MSv2.0 is scum. This is why I don't like necro-replacing people, but I'd be damned if I ever let myself lose twice in one game.

[Midnight's Sorrow]

Are you admitting your the Mito leader Glork? Cause that's what I'm hearing from you sir

I think it's Kdub/bill myself as the last scum. Glork just has his head stuck far up his ass

[bv310]

BV, do you still think that the last two scums are KDub/Bill? Why/why not? If you do think someone else is scum, who is it, and why?

I firmly do. I don't think MS is the last scum, and Bill's hammer seems really suspicious.

I guess we have about a week to kill now, waiting for Kise to come along and post the lynch scene.

[Glork]

Are you admitting your the Mito leader Glork? Cause that's what I'm hearing from you sir

I think it's Kdub/bill myself as the last scum. Glork just has his head stuck far up his ass

Oh my god, Midnight, would you please shut up for a second rather than trying to get the last word.

I am not making an argument FOR or AGAINST you being scum right now. Just read these points and THINK for a few minutes before rolling your eyes and acting as though you know better.
1) Bill has definitively stated that he thinks you are scum
2) KDub has definitively stated that he thinks you are scum
3) Glork has definitively stated that he thinks you are scum

Now, with points 1-3 in mind, consider that if BV is town, and scum can crosskill to win, then it stands to reason that:
4) If BV is town, no matter which of Glork/KDub/Bill is scum, they will attempt to kill MSv2.0 tongiht.

Having said that, just take ten minutes to think about what your current options are, no matter what your alignment is. Once you've taken those ten minutes, read my next post.

[Glork]

Considering Points 1-4:

1) Bill has definitively stated that he thinks you are scum
2) KDub has definitively stated that he thinks you are scum
3) Glork has definitively stated that he thinks you are scum
4) If BV is town, no matter which of Glork/KDub/Bill is scum, they will attempt to kill MSv2.0 tongiht.

There are three possibilites for MSv2.0's role:
A) MSv2.0 is a vanilla townie
B) MSv2.0 is nightkill-vulnerable scum
C) MSv2.0 is nightkill-immune scum

(i) If MS v2.0 is vanilla townie, then BOTH scums would try to kill him, thinking they were crosskilling for the win. We will go into Day 7 with MSv2.0 dead and 2 scum among three townies. Classic prisoner's dilemma. The game will be entirely out of the town's hands.

(ii) If MSv2.0 is kill-vulnerable scum, then the other scum will try to kill him. MS v2.0 will die, and MSv2.0's faction will LOSE. Given this, MS v2.0 has three options
---> Make no attempt to kill. There will be 2 townies and 1 scum alive going into Day 7. Both factions will have a chance to win.
---> Attempt to kill the other scum. If successful, there will be 2 townies alive and 0 scum. The town will win.
---> Attempt to kill a townsperson. If successful, there will be 1 townie alive and 1 scum. The remaining scum will win.
Based on these options, and the fact that MSv2.0 does not KNOW who the last scum is (he seems to think it's me, but he also seems to think that I'm NK-immune), MS v2.0 cannot win. However, his original player slot, MS v1.0, can still win. I would argue that, based on this,

if MS v2.0 is kill-vulnerable scum, his best option is to no-kill and allow MS v1.0 a chance to win the game

.

(iii) If MS v2.0 is kill-immune scum, he can still win. The other scum will try to kill him but will fail. MS should try to kill a townie tonight, putting the game into a 1:1:1 situation in Day 7. The only option for the townie is to no-lynch, and then MS v2.0 simply kills and wins. The

only

way MS v2.0 can lose in scneario (iii) is if he kills the other scum tonight. That would lead to a 2:1 situation with both of the townies suspecting (and lynching) MS.

[Glork]

BV, do you still think that the last two scums are KDub/Bill? Why/why not? If you do think someone else is scum, who is it, and why?

I firmly do. I don't think MS is the last scum, and Bill's hammer seems really suspicious.

I guess we have about a week to kill now, waiting for Kise to come along and post the lynch scene.

Okay, thanks. Personally, if you're protown, I think it's MS/Bill right now, but I'd have to really go back and re-read large chunks of the game to figure out that second scum.

[Midnight's Sorrow]

Bill had definitively stated that MS vr1 was scum
Kdub had definitively stated that MS v1 was scum
Glork had definitively stated that MS vr1 was scum

Seeing as how these said people thought my last self was the last Mito, I find it very hard to believe they actually hold weight in thinking that I could be the last scum.

I mean, if hitting the last me wasn't enough of a let down, trying picking up your gun again and finding yourself in a peculiar situation tomorrow

[Glork]

I'm not really sure what point you're trying to make with that post.

[Glork]

And actually, I had reverted to Zazie/BV as the last scums and stated that TWICE before the end of Day Five. After our lengthy argument yesterday, I decided that what we had going on was more townie arguing with townie. I even said "It'll be fun pitting Zaziescum against BVscum" after the hammer had been dropped on Vezo.

[Midnight's Sorrow]

Glork, why are you suffering from confirmation bias?

[Glork]

I'm not. I just listed every possible scenario for your alignment based on logical assumptions made from observing this thread.

[Glork]

Alright, I'll play ball with you.


Let's pretend that you are protown, and that I am nightkill-immune scum. Please describe to me how you think tonight's actions, and tomorrow's resulting lynch (or no-lynch) will play out.

[Midnight's Sorrow]

ITT Glork fails to see where I'm getting at

[Glork]

This is true, because you have this annoying habit of not relaying what you're getting at.

[Midnight's Sorrow]

I'm not concerned with your opinion on my slot, as you've already stated what you thought of it. I'm concerned about your thoughts on the other players. Made more so if your actually Town.

[Glork]

I'm not concerned with your opinion on my slot, as you've already stated what you thought of it. I'm concerned about your thoughts on the other players. Made more so if your actually Town.

I already stated this.

The fact that I'm going through this appeal to you should say "Glork must think that BV might actually be protown, and he's trying to do some damage control."
I already told BV how I feel about the other players if in fact he is protown. I stated that I think the last two scums would be MS and Bill, although I'm not all that convinced that it's Bill, and would want to re-read much of the game (namely, the isos of both of those players and all known scum to date).

You're sitting here telling me that I'm suffering from confirmation bias, when I'm actually sitting at my computer going "Okay, if BV is scum, I'm pretty sure we have this in the bag. But if he isn't scum, which is a distinct possiblity, I have to A) Make sure we don't autolose by the scumkills, and B) Find out who that other scumbag is."



This is going to sound really arrogant, but I don't care at this point. I am WAY ahead of where you think I am. I've been on-site for over five full years now, and I'm widely considered one of the best players in MafiaScum's history. Not only do I find scum accurately, but I am an excellent strategist, a good spin doctor, and I have the capacity to consider a wide variety of possibilities at once and determine best strategies for any number of given scenarios. It won't stop me from trying to pound my opinions into others' heads, but I am more than capable of handling a BV-mislynch if indeed that's what this is.

[Midnight's Sorrow]

I don't really care about all that actually. That doesn't stop you from being wrong.

Why can't it be Kdubscum?

[Glork]

I'll even tip my hand a little more.


Right now, I think it's 60-40 in favor of BV flipping scum. For that 60%, I don't really have to worry. If I live through tonight, I'll vote you tomorrow, and either win or lose by my own gameplay.

What I'm focusing on is that 40%. Like I said, if BV is town, I have two major jobs right now.
First and foremost, I have to make sure that I don't lose because one scum and one town get nightkilled. That is the entire point of everything I've posted towards you in this page. I am convinced that you are scum, but I need you to be my ally, at least for tonight. If you get nightkilled and kill off a townsperson, I lose. It's that simple. That is by far my biggest concern right now, so it's what I have put my entire focus on, in terms of posted content.
The secondary objective is to find the second scum. Bill has a leg up on KDub in that category for a few reasons. First, I feel that KDub was more active and instrumental in the lynch of the second Mito and the lynch of the second Geo. I've already explained why I think busing your last scumbuddy with another killing faction is a bad idea. It leaves you vulnerable to a loss entirely beyond your control. That alone is MAJOR plus points in KDub's favor. The second reason is that I feel that Bill has done less and less over the last day and a half or so to actively find scum. Bill's behavior is somewhat consistent with a scum who is observing the game and goes "Aha! The most prominent townies are zero-ing in on people other than me, so I'll look useful enough to not wind up like BV, but not so prominent that I become a nightkill candidate." He's VERY under-the-radar from my perspective, whereas KDub seems to be more of a "consequences be damned, I'm going to find scum" attitude. But like I said, I want to re-read Bill and KDub for interactions with known scum, and I want to revisit Bill's posts over the last two days to see if my "diminishing contributions" opinion is more than a general inkling.


So there you have it. That's my entire stance on the game. I'm still decently sure that BV is scum, and that there's nothing to worry about. But if that 40% chane of BV being town does come to pass, I know where I stand and how I'm going to approach this game to secure victory.

[Glork]

Why can't it be Kdubscum?

It absolutely can be KDubscum. I never said it couldn't, just that I

currently

believe

that Bill is more likely scum. Goodness, I'd think that somebody as wordy and nit-picky as you would have actually read what I posted.

[Midnight's Sorrow]

And I've already given you my stance on why the 'no busing' from you was BS.

pre-edit:

I am reading what your posting. It just seems from you post that theres hardly any reason for you to suspect kdub, which is why I call CB.

[Glork]

Yeah, and I think we'll have to agree to disagree on the bus point.

Based on the flip of "Geostigma Leader," I don't think it's statistically likely that that role, or a potential corresponding Mito leadership role is going to be an NK-immune godfather. Even if that were the case, I don't think it would be sound play to bus Vezo at that particular moment. I would have angled to hold out on BV/Zazie much later into the day.