A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[RichardGHP]

Vote: Magna

; Post please.

May change back.

[diddin]

OOOOOOOOOOOKKKKKKKKKKAAAAAAAAAY.

Let's look at this from my perspective.

Myself, Richard, and Thor are town for obvious reasons.

That leaves Mac Magna and CSL.

Mac is confirmed not Greyjoy and CSL is a highly unlikely Lannister. The ONLY way Mac can be town is if it's CSL Greyjoy/Magna Lannister, which I doubt. Assuming Mac is Lannister scum, that leaves CSL or Magna for Greyjoy, which I would prefer Magna as a lynch.

[CSL]

Richard, MoI is always v/la on weekends.

[Macavitar]

CSL, you need to respond to my posts 2469, 2471, and 2474. Why isn't Magna guaranteed scum from your perspective? Why are you voting me?

Also, given the short night

Richard, MoI is always v/la on weekends.

does not look good for you.

[CSL]

It's all WIFOM to us...

But yeah, Magna's guaranteed scum in my perspective.

Unvote; Vote: Magna

[diddin]

If Magna is V/LA and the night ended quickly, I have a small feeling inside me saying he didn't have a night action to send in. If so, it means CSL Greyjoy and Mac Lannister.

[Thor665]

Conversely he may have just sent it in prior to his departure.

@CSL - why all the Richard sheeping?

I'm leaning towards Mac as the lynch today.

[diddin]

VOTE: Macavatar

The chances of him being town rely on circumstances that keep getting more unlikely as we go on.

For Mac to be town we need to have: CSL as Greyjoy scum, Magna as Lannister scum. PLUS Benmage needs to have jailed mac N3 when he SUGGESTED FOR A COPPING of mac earlier that day.

The only other thing I would be for is taking the gamble and lynching Magna. If we lynch him and he flips scum we have insta win because Mac is confirmed not Greyjoy and CSL is almost guaranteed Not-Lannister. However I am quite a bit less sure on Magna actually being scum than I am of Mac.

[Macavitar]

Someone please tell me how CSL is "almost guaranteed Not-Lannister". Did I miss something?

Thor, what's changed since yesterday that would make you want to lynch me? With only 2 possible Greyjoys, isn't that the right play today?

I'm interested to see what Magna does.

[Eddard Stark]

Vote count 6.2 - The " Night gathers, and now my watch begins. It shall not end until death. I shall take no wife, hold no lands,fathe no children. I shall wear no crowns and win no glory. I shall live and die at my post. I am the sord in the darknes. I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold,the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers, the shield that guards the realms of men. I pledge my life and honor to the Night's Watch, for this night, and all the night's to come. " votecount.

Macavitar (1) -

diddin

MagnaOfIllusion (2)

RichardGHP, CSL

Not voting (3) - Macavitar, Thor665, MagnaOfIllusion

With 6 alive it takes 4 lynch. Deadline found here

[Thor665]

Thor, what's changed since yesterday that would make you want to lynch me? With only 2 possible Greyjoys, isn't that the right play today?

Basically you're back in play because, quite frankly, I think Mina died for a reason. She was obsessed with you and Magna, I tend to believe that you or Magna are scum and wanted her gone.

I see some point with the Greyjoy logic you're presenting and will consider it.

What are your thoughts on diddin hopping on you the instant I expressed potential suspicion?

[Macavitar]

Basically you're back in play because, quite frankly, I think Mina died for a reason. She was obsessed with you and Magna, I tend to believe that you or Magna are scum and wanted her gone.

Mina was a Greyjoy kill ("drowned"). I can't be Greyjoy.

What are your thoughts on diddin hopping on you the instant I expressed potential suspicion?

I still think he's the most likely Lanny, and the vote is certainly an indicator of that. But the fact is that I can't rule either CSL or Magna out of being Lannys. I've been working on re-reads as best I can.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Post please.

May change back.

How much bigger do I need to make my weekend V/Las til people notice them?

I’m not going to bother with the hackneyed ‘I was V/LA and thus clear of kills’ line of thinking I see here occasionally.

1. As Thor mentioned I could have sent in a pre-emptive list.
2. I carved out a couple hour chunk of time Saturday night to make some posts (as evidenced by my other games that were open).

Myself, Richard, and Thor are town for obvious reasons.

That leaves Mac Magna and CSL.

Mac is confirmed not Greyjoy and CSL is a highly unlikely Lannister. The ONLY way Mac can be town is if it's CSL Greyjoy/Magna Lannister, which I doubt. Assuming Mac is Lannister scum, that leaves CSL or Magna for Greyjoy, which I would prefer Magna as a lynch.

Funny but you look at it from my perspective you get the following –

Thor, myself and Richard are clear.

Mac is only possibly Lannister and I’m even doubting that. Cow’s death is so laden with WIFOM it doesn’t bolster any case against him.

That leaves you and CSL. You can’t be Greyjoy for flavor reasons. That means from my perspective POE means the scum are yourself as Lannister and CSL as Greyjoy.

I was going to lynch MoI in lylo anyways.

Here’s my question CSL – why do you assume I’d survive to LYLO to be lynched?

Can people please unvote so we can make this day work for us? There's a lot we have to do today. L-2 is basically a position where the scum can work together to end the day, if that's in their best interests. If I get lynched, there's every chance you'll end up in a 1-1-1 kingmaker scenario or a 2-1 LYLO tomorrow, and I'd like at least some chance to get us to lynch scum today.

Mac I’m not liking the following thought process I’m seeing.

1. CSL and Richard are voting for you.
2. You state that you are at L-2 and scum ‘can work together’ to quick-end the day.

By this logic you are assuming that CSL is Town. Because otherwise you’d only worry if you were at L-1. And yet in the same post you label CSL as potentially either clan and question Richard as to why he didn’t look at CSL.

First of all, nothing's really changed in regards to my claim. Brienne was in the game, I was looking for her. It all makes even more sense now that hascow flipped vanilla. I targeted hascow over last night to recruit, as was obvious, and the Lannister had to kill hascow last night no matter what, so that I continue to look dirty. There's no new information there.

Some WIFOM being spun here but it cuts both ways so it doesn't really change my opinion.

Mac – I believed your claim yesterday. Despite what I’m seeing above I still tend to believe you are Town. Its in your best interests to think very carefully about lynching me. My death pretty much seals the Kingmaker for you and thus ends your chance at victory.

VOTE: CSL– I have to choose from two confirmed (or 95% in my eyes) scum and I’d rather chose the scum who clears me from the number 1 suspcion (my being a Greyjoy) in my eyes.

[Macavitar]

Mac I’m not liking the following thought process I’m seeing.

1. CSL and Richard are voting for you.
2. You state that you are at L-2 and scum ‘can work together’ to quick-end the day.

By this logic you are assuming that CSL is Town. Because otherwise you’d only worry if you were at L-1. And yet in the same post you label CSL as potentially either clan and question Richard as to why he didn’t look at CSL.

CSL is

possible

town. It is entirely plausible that you and diddin are the last two scum. CSL is also

possible

Greyjoy and

possible

Lanny. I'm not comfortable with ruling people out now.

Clearly, some people are. For example: Richard has said that he feels like CSL is town. If that's true, then from Richard's perspective, you are guaranteed Greyjoy scum. The fact that he originally wasn't voting for you made no sense. You don't think I'm scum, therefore you're ruling me out of being Lanny. Because from your perspective CSL is guaranteed Greyjoy scum, that leaves only diddin as Lanny scum. Thus your posting and voting is consistent and makes sense. That doesn't mean that you aren't scum, but I have a lot I want to do/re-read before I'm comfortable voting.

[diddin]

By the way, CSL is 100% confirmed not-Lannister. Remember this after my death.

Seriously. If there's one person we can guarantee wouldn't have picked up on Mikujin's softclaim AND been crafty enough to have lied about it (aside from the late vezokpiraka), it's CSL.

Don't think we can take this far enough to say he isn't a Greyjoy (because he didn't realize his buddy was a watcher), though. There might be some cognitive dissonance going on.

Here's why CSL is confirmed not-Lannister.

[Macavitar]

Quite right, quite right. OK, so we now have 3 potential Lannys: Magna, diddin, and me; and 2 potential Greyjoys: Magna and CSL. Thus we have:

1) Magna - Greyjoy, diddin - Lanny
2) Magna - Greyjoy, Mac - Lanny
3) CSL - Greyjoy, Magna - Lanny
4) CSL - Greyjoy, diddin - Lanny
5) CSL - Greyjoy, Mac - Lanny

Unless I'm missing something, we're limited to one of those 5.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Here's why CSL is confirmed not-Lannister.

The reasons Mina gave were …

1. She guarantees it and to remember after her death.
2. CSL couldn’t have picked up Vezo’s softclaim and other junk.

The only way Mina could be assured that CSL wasn’t Lannister is if she Tracked him on a Night when there was only 1 Lannister left, there was a Lannister kill, and CSL tracked no-where.

Looking back xvart died Night 3, so Night 4 is the only day that this could have happened. Yet Mina (via Cow) claimed a Track result on Macavitar that Day.

I don’t see that Mina’s role could have cleared CSL. If anyone has any reason to disagree with this logic please point out where I’m making a mistake.

[Macavitar]

I actually agree with MoI on this one. It really seemed to me that Mina was saying CSL couldn't be Lanny because he's too dumb...which afaik is a terrible argument to make. CSL can be aloof at times, but he's not stupid and actually does have experience playing. Unless there is a night result or mod-confirmation, ruling people out is kind of a terrible idea. You can say it's less likely, sure, but that is not the same as exclusion.

-VP

[diddin]

No, her logic is fine. Since CSL would be solo Lannister at the time of Miku's death, he would have to pick up Miku's watcher claim which he very well could not have. I don't think he is 100% clear of being Lannister but the odds of him being Lanny are a fuck of a lot less than the odds of Mac being Lanny.

[Macavitar]

Stop disagreeing to disagree. You just repeated what I said. CSL is NOT clear of being a lanny. I agree that he is less likely than some people (*cough*you*cough*), but he's certainly not less than us since, you know, we're not.


But yeah, Mina's logic is very much fail. Too stupid to be scum is one of the worst arguments in the book. Of course, eliminating Macavitar and taking CSL to lylo is probably exactly what diddin-scum would be looking at as an endgame strategy right now.

[CSL]

Mac. Why diddin?

[Thor665]

Vote: CSL

I think we're all just tired and wound up in wine puzzles at this point.

I buy into the 'let's lynch a Greyjoy' plan.
I find Magna more townish and CSL more scummy.

[CSL]

Reasons. Now.

[Thor665]

I buy into the 'let's lynch a Greyjoy' plan.
I find Magna more townish and CSL more scummy.

Whut?

[CSL]

I meant reasons as to why Magnascum is townier than I am.

Why isn't Magna lynched yet?