Zachtown in the mountains (Game over TOWN WINS!)

[Benmage]

IAM, if Benmage's plan was scummy, why aren't you voting him?

Cause it's page 2. I don't over react to

poor play early

in the game. More often than not these players turn up townie. But I'll watch him...

Misstatement...I had already corrected myself.

[Dry-fit]

Make sense?

No.

Vote: KaleiÐoscøpe

[Percy]

IAM, if Benmage's plan was scummy, why aren't you voting him?

Vote: Sotty7

[Benmage]

IAM, if Benmage's plan was scummy, why aren't you voting him?

Vote: Sotty7

Looks like your trying to show something ....what is it?

[imkingdavid]

IAM, if Benmage's plan was scummy, why aren't you voting him?

Vote: Sotty7

Looks like your trying to show something ....what is it?

^this.

[RedCoyote]

I don't think IAI's numbers are IIoA, because he clearly states after giving us the information that he doesn't like the plan. Additionally, he isn't saying that Benmage is scummy for suggesting it, he's just crunching the numbers for the town's benefit. Benmage getting defensive looks significantly worse than anything else here.

---

IAM, if Benmage's plan was scummy, why aren't you voting him?

Vote: Sotty7

I agree with Percy's vote here. I'm thinking we have a similar problem with Sotty's comment. I don't recall IAI ever saying pointedly that Benmage's plan is scummy, yet she presumes that and gives him a question from that presumption.

Vote: Sotty7

[Nikanor]

I helped Zach with the numbers for this game (and by helped I mean I linked him to this spreadsheet), and apparently it's about 50/50 if we lynch every day, with a slight lean towards scum.

(Keep in mind that I may establish rules pertaining to the scum's ability to night talk privately with the scum team. The town will not be informed as to these requirements.)

Apparently Zach is taking away mafia's night talk to make up for that.

Hey Locke, who do you think will win this game, town or mafia?

Vote: jasonT.

[Oso]

Whoo boy, I like it when the game gets out of RVS fairly quickly (granddaughter is going to be disappointed that opposite day might not have worked though).

UNVOTE:

VOTE: RedCoyote

..
I agree with Percy's vote here. I'm thinking we have a similar problem with Sotty's comment. I don't recall IAI ever saying pointedly that Benmage's plan is scummy, yet she presumes that and gives him a question from that presumption.
..

..
Information Instead of Analysis? I analyzed the one thing worth analyzing so far. Your initial scummy plan. Yeah you nixed it, after you were called on it. I just took the call on it and completely blew it up in your face.

Any other scummy plans you think we should incorporate?

IAM, if Benmage's plan was scummy, why aren't you voting him?

Since I'm not going to assume that RedCoyote is either drunk, high or has some sort of medical disorder that causes him to read posts out of order, then that must have been a deliberate attempt to cast an unfounded suspicion using a blatant falsehood.

Which means that Percy also get the hairy eyeball as well. Although, since he(Percy) never clarified why he made that post, I'm going to go (for the moment) with the thought that RedCoyote might have interpreted it so it fit his own nefarious agenda.

[Locke Lamora]

Town. With that said:

Vote: Nikanor

Focus on the setup and a random vote whilst ignoring the IAI/Sotty situation completely. Incidentally, I think Sotty isn't scummy for asking why IAI hasn't voted, and I would instinctively say IAI not voting for Benmage after calling him scummy wins mild scum points, but I'd have to look at other games to see if that's consistent with IAI's general early game play.

[Elmo]

I analyzed the one thing worth analyzing so far. Your initial

scummy plan

. Yeah you nixed it, after you were called on it. I just took the call on it and completely blew it up in your face.

IAM, if Benmage's plan was scummy, why aren't you voting him?

Cause it's page 2. I don't over react to

poor play

early in the game. More often than not these players turn up townie. But I'll watch him...

Why do you switch from saying it's scummy to saying it's bad play? If you think he's mafia, then it's scummy; if he's town, then it's bad play. What changed? How can it possibly be scummy if players doing that usually town out to be town?

[RedCoyote]

Whoops. Good catch, Oso. I missed that post entirely.

Unvote

;

Vote: Nikanor

for not catching that before Oso did.

[jasonT1981]

I don't think IAI's numbers are IIoA, because he clearly states after giving us the information that he doesn't like the plan. Additionally, he isn't saying that Benmage is scummy for suggesting it, he's just crunching the numbers for the town's benefit. Benmage getting defensive looks significantly worse than anything else here.

---

IAM, if Benmage's plan was scummy, why aren't you voting him?

Vote: Sotty7

I agree with Percy's vote here. I'm thinking we have a similar problem with Sotty's comment. I don't recall IAI ever saying pointedly that Benmage's plan is scummy, yet she presumes that and gives him a question from that presumption.

Vote: Sotty7

I actually see no problem with Sottys post and feel it is a legit question to be asking...the question was asked of IAMINNOCENT who HAD said the plan was scummy

I already nix'd that plan. But thanks for the IIoA....looks like the 7 year old was right.

Information Instead of Analysis? I analyzed the one thing worth analyzing so far. Your initial scummy plan. Yeah you nixed it, after you were called on it. I just took the call on it and completely blew it up in your face.

Any other scummy plans you think we should incorporate?

IAM had indicated the plan by Benmage was scummy, Sotty rightly questioned himn over why he wasnt voting if he thought the plan was scummy. I would have done the same

[mongoose]

RVS starts at 10:40pm and ends at 9:20 am the next day. I missed all the fun
I was about to post something useful but then I watch KaleiÐoscøpe's avatar for a while and forgot what.

If the town could win a mafia game half the time by lynching randomly every day, it would be no fun. Needless to say the numbers are going to be in favor of the mafia. Im a bit suprised it almost a 4:1 ratio to the scum, but it should be about that much. I dont see why we should even consider not lynching on day since otherwise we are reverting back to the 4:1 odds. That being said, thanks, though they didnt help much. (in reference to I am innocent's statistics).

[I Am Innocent]

I helped Zach with the numbers for this game (and by helped I mean I linked him to this spreadsheet), and apparently it's about 50/50 if we lynch every day, with a slight lean towards scum.

Being a number cruncher, I am very certain that it is 61/39 in favor of scum:
1) I ran every scenario with every corresponding probability
2) I created a setup and ran 40,000 trials and the numbers converged to 61/39

As for the other setup (one lynch per day), I just created the setup and ran 40,000 trials. Got to lazy to run every possible scenario and corresponding probability.

I'll double check your file today if possible.

I would instinctively say IAI not voting for Benmage after calling him scummy wins mild scum points, but I'd have to look at other games to see if that's consistent with IAI's general early game play.

Why do you switch from saying it's scummy to saying it's bad play? If you think he's mafia, then it's scummy; if he's town, then it's bad play. What changed? How can it possibly be scummy if players doing that usually town out to be town?

To not use every possible lynch helps scum, so I used the words "scummy plan". Does that mean a townie who plays much more like a newbie who doesn't know any better could suggest it? Absolutely not.

So my first move was to make sure town understood that every lynch should be used, it is in our best interest. Next was to see if Benmage is a poor playing townie or opportunistic scum. So far his play falls under the poor playing townie category.

If the town could win a mafia game half the time by lynching randomly every day, it would be no fun.

I am very sure we can't win randomly 50% of the time, though if we do nail a scum D1, the odds flip just over 50% entering D2 (11 townies, 2 mafia left).

On the flip side, I did come up with an interesting strategy that makes D1 "somewhat random", but could box the mafia into a corner. I'll download the numbers from my work computer and present them to the group to see if we want to try it...

@ BenMage, what is your record on this site as town and mafia? Can you give me your best game as town?

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

^^ Why is that relevant? It's not like every game is going to be the same as this one ^^

Sticking to my vote right now. I'm happy with it.

[Elmo]

To not use every possible lynch helps scum, so I used the words "scummy plan". Does that mean a townie who plays much more like a newbie who doesn't know any better could suggest it? Absolutely not.

Because it's opposite day, I'm going to interpret the middle sentence exactly counter to how it's stated, which then makes sense. It's pretty odd to refer to a plan in the abstract as "scummy", though; I imagine "pro-scum" is the intention.

So my first move was to make sure town understood that every lynch should be used, it is in our best interest. Next was to see if Benmage is a poor playing townie or opportunistic scum. So far

his play falls under the poor playing townie category

.

Okay. Why do you think that?

[Benmage]

I don't think IAI's numbers are IIoA, because he clearly states after giving us the information that he doesn't like the plan. Additionally, he isn't saying that Benmage is scummy for suggesting it, he's just crunching the numbers for the town's benefit. Benmage getting defensive looks significantly worse than anything else here.

It's filler posting. Thats why its scummy.

To not use every possible lynch helps scum, so I used the words "scummy plan". Does that mean a townie who plays much more like a newbie who doesn't know any better could suggest it? Absolutely not.

So my first move was to make sure town understood that every lynch should be used, it is in our best interest. Next was to see if Benmage is a poor playing townie or opportunistic scum. So far his play falls under the poor playing townie category.

SO you can crunch numbers..but fail at reading comprehension. I nix'd the plan...so the town already wasn't doing it, so you weren't guiding anyone. And again, had reveals not been instantly flipped I'd of pushed for 1 lynch on D1 only.

@ BenMage, what is your record on this site as town and mafia? Can you give me your best game as town?

Feel free to do the research yourself.

So my first move was to make sure town understood that every lynch should be used, it is in our best interest. Next was to see if Benmage is a poor playing townie or opportunistic scum. So far

his play falls under the poor playing townie category

.

Okay. Why do you think that?

QFT. I'd like to know this as well considering I already corrected myself over a misinterpretation...so to suggest I'm playing poorly...is simply trying to undermine me.

[Percy]

Sotty's question struck me as deliberately aggrevating. It boiled down to "You said all this

serious

stuff about Benmage, why didn't you

serious

vote?". Seems like a trap for IAI - like either he's disingenuous or he's timid.

I thought IAI responded strongly, whilst Benmage took the bait to go all attack dog "the RVS is officially OVER, BITCHES, I am THROWING DOWN".

(Also, Benmage said he

forgot

that the flips weren't instantaneous, but it sure looks to me like he read the OP and didn't read the Rules post.)

I still hadn't got a good read on Benmage yet, but something about Sotty's comment just bothered me. I thought it warranted a semi-serious vote.

Now RedCoyote kinda got my vibe, but he missed a crucial part - that IAI had actually called the plan "scummy". He appears to have thought about what I was saying, rather than just asking me to explain myself straight away...

Reading my post alone could mean that RC didn't go back and check all the facts, and since it's so easy to refute I think it's a poor tell.

The way he backed down when Oso called him on it is more suspicious, imo. It was playing friendly with Oso and Locke Lamora while excusing himself

and

turning on the new guy. Feels like a tactical retreat, and that is kinda scummy.

Im a bit suprised it almost a 4:1 ratio to the scum, but it should be about that much.

You're surprised, but it should be about 4:1? Huh?

(It's not 4:1, it's 61:39, which is about 1.56:1.)

(( Also, a two man scumteam in a 12 person mini has ~65% chance of victory

mathematically

, but I don't think it's anything like that in practice. I'd say this setup favours town, frankly.))

I'm happy with my vote for now.

[Sotty7]

IAM, if Benmage's plan was scummy, why aren't you voting him?

Cause it's page 2. I don't over react to poor play early in the game. More often than not these players turn up townie. But I'll watch him...

I dunno, you seem to be overreacting slightly to your wagon. This drew my eye in particular:

Any other scummy plans you think we should incorporate?

It looked like you were trying to dirty benmage for what he said in pregame and if you legitimately thought what he did was scummy you should have voted. Instead you threw out a random vote, it feels disingenuous.

The question felt a little spiteful and this explanation doesn't cut it.

Cause it's page 2. I don't over react to poor play early in the game. More often than not these players turn up townie. But I'll watch him...

= = = = = =

IAM, if Benmage's plan was scummy, why aren't you voting him?

Vote: Sotty7

Sotty's question struck me as deliberately aggrevating. It boiled down to "You said all this

serious

stuff about Benmage, why didn't you

serious

vote?". Seems like a trap for IAI - like either he's disingenuous or he's timid.

I thought IAI responded strongly, whilst Benmage took the bait to go all attack dog "the RVS is officially OVER, BITCHES, I am THROWING DOWN".

I don't do traps, they're silly.

Also, what was

strong

about IAM's response?
= = = = =

I agree with Percy's vote here. I'm thinking we have a similar problem with Sotty's comment. I don't recall IAI ever saying pointedly that Benmage's plan is scummy, yet she presumes that and gives him a question from that presumption.

Vote: Sotty7

BUZZ. Try again Red.

I already nix'd that plan. But thanks for the IIoA....looks like the 7 year old was right.

Information Instead of Analysis? I analyzed the one thing worth analyzing so far. Your initial scummy plan. Yeah you nixed it, after you were called on it. I just took the call on it and completely blew it up in your face.

Any other scummy plans you think we should incorporate?

= = = = =

(Keep in mind that I may establish rules pertaining to the scum's ability to night talk privately with the scum team. The town will not be informed as to these requirements.)

Apparently Zach is taking away mafia's night talk to make up for that.

What made you come to that conclusion based on that quoted statement? I would think scum have day talk.

= = = = =

! Oso. I already like you. Beat me to the punch. I might follow you onto Red, but I'm quite liking my IAM vote atm.

[Elmo]

To not use every possible lynch helps scum, so I used the words "scummy plan".

I think IAI mis-spoke. I think he mixed up "scummy" and "anti-town", which happens often enough - not least because a decent number of people believe they are synonymous. What he meant by "scummy plan" was "anti-town plan".

That said...D1 should only have 1 lynch.

Not 100% on the mechanics of this double lynch

, but I guess we can no lynch for one of the lynches and than perform a standard lynch.

That is, if we only see both reveals at the end of the day, it might be better to only lynch one person on Day 1, which seems a reasonable idea to me.

OHHHHHH right we see the flip instantaneously. F what I said. We'll utilize both lynches.

But that isn't the case here; forget it.

Ran the numbers.

{...}

Let's just say passes, especially early in the game, are going to benefit scum.

I already nix'd that plan. But thanks for the IIoA....looks like the 7 year old was right.

Information Instead of Analysis? I analyzed the one thing worth analyzing so far. Your initial scummy plan. Yeah you nixed it,

after you were called on it. I just took the call on it and completely blew it up in your face

. Any other scummy plans you think we should incorporate?

In particular #43 is wrong, because Benmage withdrew his plan before IAI commented on it. However, if IAI simply didn't see post #13, in which case the exchange makes sense; IAI believes Benmage only withdrew it after it was pointed out to be wrong, Benmage believes IAI was commenting on something irrelevant since that plan would never be employed. I don't see a whole lot here.

---

I do not like #57 at all. UNVOTE: I Am Innocent; VOTE: Oso

[I Am Innocent]

So my first move was to make sure town understood that every lynch should be used, it is in our best interest. Next was to see if Benmage is a poor playing townie or opportunistic scum. So far

his play falls under the poor playing townie category

.

Okay. Why do you think that?

QFT. I'd like to know this as well considering I already corrected myself over a misinterpretation...so to suggest I'm playing poorly...is simply trying to undermine me.

Probably the way Ben attacked Percy for attacking Sotty for questioning me in Post 53. Ben has that newbie feel of someone trying so hard so early in the game, like he has everything all figured out and won't budge. All in all, I don't suspect scum to draw this much attention so early on.

Ben, I really do think you are townie. If you are, step back and look for a minute and stop being so dang stubborn:

1) Do you know that INCLUDING THE PREGAME CHAT, 7 of the 16 players have 2 posts or less. Do you think there is a chance that the three scum could be laying low, watching this all play out and smiling. One player has yet to POST AT ALL!
2) I have never put out the statistics like that before. I could have blended in and random voted like everybody else.

But I thought it was essential that town use all its lynches

. NOBODY BEFORE I POSTED THAT SAID THAT WE SHOULD USE ALL OUR LYNCHES THROUGHOUT THE GAME. I was clarifying, because nobody else had. I can guarantee you one thing, if I was scum, there ain't no way I am shooting out the statistics cause my hope and prayer would be less lynches and more nk's. Think about it.

[I Am Innocent]

---

I do not like #57 at all. UNVOTE: I Am Innocent; VOTE: Oso

Elmo, my scumdar was pinged on that exact same post.

unvote
unvote Oso

[I Am Innocent]

EBWOP

unvote
Vote: Oso

Any other scummy plans you think we should incorporate?

It looked like you were trying to dirty benmage for what he said in pregame and if you legitimately thought what he did was scummy you should have voted. Instead you threw out a random vote, it feels disingenuous.

The question felt a little spiteful and this explanation doesn't cut it.

I asked that question to primarily gauge his reaction

Sotty, you're smart, why would I try to dirty benmage and then say he is townie? Your logic doesn't add up girl. Try again.

Early suspects: Oso, Sotty, ?

[I Am Innocent]

Check the numbers on Nik's sheet.

On the

Double Day page

, Cell F16, it shows 39.04% winning pct. That is the exact number I got if we use all our lynches (39/61). Nik this is far from 50/50...

I looked on his

Vanilla page

, and I noticed Cell F16 matched F15. That would make sense that if we got 1 lynch a day with 0 power roles, you are better off passing D1 and lynching D2-8 than lynching D1-D7 and ending up with D8 possibly be 1 vs 1 (a forced lynch).

So my initial estimate was low, and the percentages if we did decide to only lynch once per day is 24.5%, which is a significant drop.

Okay, let's put this to rest before Benmage starts begging for proxy votes to have me ousted.

We lynch each and every time

. I don't care if we need to use the online mafia random generator, we are better off doing that than no lynching.

[I Am Innocent]

@ BenMage, what is your record on this site as town and mafia? Can you give me your best game as town?

Feel free to do the research yourself.

Very anti-town behavior here. If you have nothing to hide, you would supply this information willingly.

Question for you, are you playing under an alias in Newbie 1017 by chance, cause there are a ton of players just like you in there...