Stars Aligned III - The Tenth Day

[hitogoroshi]

No, I won't let the cultists track my insanities
sorry

This doesn't really seem like a problem, though. About the only insanity that the cult could use against you if they knew about it is Marked, and you shouldn't be taking that anyway.

[Furcolow]

So if I have a weakness, like having one piece of equipment, or like one-two votes less on the wagon (sadism), or even WIFOM it at a certain spot...

like for instance: I don't claim insanities, DON'T have sadism but the cult don't know that
with 8 left, for instance, 3 cult and say sadism is +2 to threshold (just a for instance, i think it's +2 but it might be +1... w/e it is)
say they all 3 quickvote me to see if they can get a free lynch, and i don't have sadism
that would win it for the town just from that
i know that is a very unlikely scenario, but not claiming insanities from a confirmed town is actually beneficial in theory

[Furcolow]

ok it's one less on sadism

[Furcolow]

with 7, then, in lylo they could win possibly... like if they knew i had sadism or didn't
not claiming leads to wifom for them, and i'll have to take some bad ones if i'm graverobbing

[kunkstar7]

I'm not sure what definition of Sadism you are even using there.

[AurorusVox]

WHOEVER MADE "El Goosuki is scum" BECAUSE EL GOOSUKI WANTS TO SHEEP BUT THEN DOESN'T GETS +100 WIN POINTS

I am convinced by many of these RC cases, SeaCore (!!) in particular has been summarising it very well. I still want to do my own ISO of him, but I'm comfortable enough with those summaries to

Vote: ReaperCharlie

for now.

@MoI, OIC, so you tricked me into thinking I'd done good. I am hurt.

[hitogoroshi]

Furcolow, you're thinking of suicidal, first off. :p

Secondly, you're not getting lynched in this thread unless the entire town comes to the conclusion that you're going to go murderer. I don't believe that (what kind of murderer wards N0?) but transparency regarding your insanities will help appease the haters.

As for equipment weaknesses, I think a fair compromise is not having to claim the equipment. You claim solist, but stay mum on what you have. Or you claim taboo, but stay mum on what you taboo. Etc.

(By the way, if you plan to grave rob every night, my advice for insanity order goes something like this. Necrophilia first, then Twitchy, then (assuming you got some equipment) Taboo equipment you don't want, then Solist and keep something you do want. Throw in Compulsion and maybe Hallcination/Mutilation (I suspect that as the days advance we'll be lifting the ban on those insanities) and you've got a solid game plan cult can't take advantage of.)

[Furcolow]

Furcolow, you're thinking of suicidal, first off. :p

Secondly, you're not getting lynched in this thread unless the entire town comes to the conclusion that you're going to go murderer. I don't believe that (what kind of murderer wards N0?) but transparency regarding your insanities will help appease the haters.

As for equipment weaknesses, I think a fair compromise is not having to claim the equipment. You claim solist, but stay mum on what you have. Or you claim taboo, but stay mum on what you taboo. Etc.

(By the way, if you plan to grave rob every night, my advice for insanity order goes something like this. Necrophilia first, then Twitchy, then (assuming you got some equipment) Taboo equipment you don't want, then Solist and keep something you do want. Throw in Compulsion and maybe Hallcination/Mutilation (I suspect that as the days advance we'll be lifting the ban on those insanities) and you've got a solid game plan cult can't take advantage of.)

I disagree with you on a lot of this

[Furcolow]

yeah, i meant suicidal

[kunkstar7]

Because you and she haven't interacted at all, as far as I can see. Furthermore, you're relatively quiet, and she consistently makes peoples' "pro-town" lists - both of which I consider interesting characteristics.

I would say Plum is probably town, she is keeping up, contributing content, her votes are consistent with her words.
What about her making pro-town lists is interesting to you? I would hold that hito makes most pro-town lists, is that interesting in the same manner?

@nopoint: What are you getting at with:

And notice as soon as Magna left the wagon a whole bunch of other people jumped off despite their former insistence.

Are you implying Magna is scummy for "leading" the unhopping, or what? It looks like an unnecessary distinction to me.

[hitogoroshi]

Oh, I missed that Rob Grave doesn't work with Solist. I thought that if you had no equipment grave robbing would work. Yeah, scratch that recommendation. You could probably get special permission for some of the other insanities if it came to that. Not paranoid, though - that's the only one that can really be gamed by scum.

Also, how the FUCK did no one mention Paranoid for my forbidden insanities list. I just thought of it and that shit is terrible.

[AurorusVox]

Actually, paranoid could be used if we absolutely had to - we all vote/unvote Furc at the start of the day, one at a time (like in the same post, or one after another if need be) and then Furc can vote for whoever he wants. Anyone refusing to do it will be labelled as scum and promptly lynched. A lot of the insanities can be worked around when the guy that's taking them is the town insanity-holder.

In fact

, doing something like that would catch out people who had been forced into taken a different voting-insanity; sadism, and distraction to an extent.

[kunkstar7]

Also, how the FUCK did no one mention Paranoid for my forbidden insanities list. I just thought of it and that shit is terrible.

I would add Paranoid as a lower-end on that, considering its detriment to voting abilities.

[Baby Spice]

Firstly, while AV's post 663 did come after BabySpice left for Bloodbowl, my 301 came well before. Secondly, and more damning, "too much of a VI to properly research a fake ward claim" is completely backwards. The issue at hand was that

both past experience AND proper research into the pre-amended ruleset would have told Furcolow that warding would produce noise. For him to report that he did not heard noise basicially proves that he warded and was telling the truth.

Firstly Hito, you're explanation in #301 wasn't clear and was innacurate. AV's was crystal.

A lot of people are saying Furc isn't confirmed. Read the very beginning of the game. I called him out for warding and not hearing noise, and Percy responded by

fixing the ruleset

to show that warding was not intended to make you hear noise in SAIII. The posts were more-or-less simultaneous, and it's extremely unlikely this was any sort of crazy master plan (it would have had to be furc lying about warding, AND making an objective mistake about it making noise, and having the two luckily cancel out.)

The rules for ward were right, it was the section under hearing noise that were wrong.

- Furc played in SA II, and in SA II, when warding, you hear a noise regardless of whether anyone visits you
- If Furc lied about Warding (i.e. if he stalked someone) then he would have claimed to have heard a noise, since as far as he would have known, he SHOULD have heard a noise
- Thus, I do not believe he is lying about Warding

- If he warded, then it is very unlikely that he is going murder route

Secondly, and I have already asked this in private:

Mod. Did the wording under 'Ward' change at all in the rules post? Was it only the section under 'Hear Noise' that was changed

[hitogoroshi]

Only the section under "Hear Noise" was changed, but that doesn't matter. "Hear Noise" stated that you hear noise when you ward, and "Ward" does NOT explicitly deny that warding makes noise. It says absolutely nothing about whether or not warding makes noise. Because of this, the positive statement "You hear noise when you ward" is what applies. That's how rulesets work. In SAII, warding caused noise, and the ruleset as written at the start of the game confirmed that interpretation.

[Baby Spice]

If it's not mentioned under side effect then it isn't a side effect is it?

I planned to ward so read the rules for warding. You (and others) didn't plan to ward so didn't and no doubt were more concerned with being targeted than I was so concentrated on the hearing noise rules.

In SAII, warding caused noise, and the ruleset as written at the start of the game confirmed that interpretation.

and I disagree with you saying confirmed there, because I believe it wasn't.

But do you accept that AV's post was much clearer?

[Percy]

Mod. Did the wording under 'Ward' change at all in the rules post? Was it only the section under 'Hear Noise' that was changed

This

records the only relevant change made to the ruleset. The only other changes I have made have been to clarify when Insanity gains occur due to Denial, and clarifying that you can take

Rob Grave

twice, but not

Participate in the Ritual

.

[VasudeVa]

There is NO benefit in claiming insanities.
The only claims we should be doing is Insanity GAIN.

And that's solely for the purpose of cross checking occult book results. Occult books don't care what your insanities are, just how many there is. If we find lying scum through books, then awesome.

If we waddle about claiming our insanities, the Cult

will

take advantage of it. Cult could have won SAII a day earlier if they noticed it.

[Baby Spice]

Actually, paranoid could be used if we absolutely had to - we all vote/unvote Furc at the start of the day, one at a time (like in the same post, or one after another if need be) and then Furc can vote for whoever he wants. Anyone refusing to do it will be labelled as scum and promptly lynched. A lot of the insanities can be worked around when the guy that's taking them is the town insanity-holder.

In fact

, doing something like that would catch out people who had been forced into taken a different voting-insanity; sadism, and distraction to an extent.

Ihad a similar idea.

If at the start of D2, and every other day, everyone's voted and unvoted the person next in aphabetical order in their first post, then in their second post do the same thing. We'd quickly find anyone with Paranoia and/or Distraction and/or Sadism.

I suspect it would work if we all voted and unvoted the one person in each of our first and second posts.

On the subject of Sadism.

Feysal

is their any reason you haven't placed a vote yet?

Until #1061 MoI was looking good for Paranoid btw, but he voted someone who hasn't voted for him in RC.

If I spot anymore as I continue the analysis, or even really close ones, I'll mention them

[Lost Butterfly]

If you DID listen to me when I told you what to talk about you wouldn't have this damn wagon on you in THE FIRST PLACE.

GAWD.

Re: Seacore saying that he is looking for potential murderers+Cult

^^This is not a plan Cult would outright admit to. Its too bold and unpopular, "yeah I'm looking for scummy players, whether that means Cult or potential murderer I don't care." ITS NOT A SCUM MOVE.

Yeah, this is definitely something I'm in full agreement with, add to the fact he hasn't backed down about it when questioned (or has mentioned it a few times seperately) means the seacore wagon is more obviously terrible at this point in the game than it has been in the past. Not impressed with the fact that people are still voting him either.

I'm not really sure I buy this; which post of Trilobite are you referring to? They all are signed in the day leading up to your comment. This looked like a deflection in trying to get some hydra support since someone hadn't posted yet. In the context of that post, it seemed relevant to the hydra discussion and not to trying to read out a possible scum lurker.

The one that isn't signed, mebbe 3 in the hydra's history iirc. It's not deflection, which is a horrible argument by itself as you can basically scream that everytime someone under attack does anything. I'd also totally forgotten the sottyrulez portion of the hydras earlier posting, and I think it's relatively(?) well know zach dislikes scum and lurks when scum for the most part.

Also, all the arguments just seem a little out of place or off; like Faraday talking in third person? These responses just don't plausibly sit well with me as all being legitimate; but I recognize that it is circumstantial at best now.

Is this STILL talking about the fact you think Mina posted that despite it being really, really fucking obvious that wasn't the case? I mean it's paranoid to the point of tinfoil hat wearer when going outside and our responses aren't plausible?? Unless you believe Mina happened to come back and post a 1 liner after saying she's going to bed, and then post nothing else for no apparent reason, . The timestamps match my posting patterns, the spelling matches my spelling (or well the british version of it) but yeah, hardly plausible.

-guessfuckingwho.

[Feysal]

If you are so sure, why are you not defending him with proper arguments? Your word alone does little to influence my opinion of him... though I've not yet really formed my opinion, I will have to read ReaperCharlie's posts to see where this wagon is coming from.

Feysal, meet DGB. DGB, meet Feysal.

This I don't get. El Goosuki said he was 100% sure of ReaperCharlie being town, and I am not certain at all. I said I'd have to read his posts to form my own opinion. If this was some pot-meet-kettle comment, I don't follow.

I have decided to graverob.

I just got a message from someone about mowing a lawn, and it reminded me of this. I have decided it is the most pro-town thing that I can do, counteracting the natural janitorial process of non-flipping.

I will not be stating the insanities I am taking.

Frankly, I found this post disturbing. Back in #673 Furcolow refused to rob graves when he was offered the job, saying he had his own plan. Now we get a complete reversal, and no explanation why. His statement of not giving us his insanities looks even worse. He said he does not want the cult to track his insanities, and there are some the cult could take advantage of. So what, he does not need to take those. hitogoroshi made a sensible post about that, and Furcolow said he disagreed, with no reasoning at all.

Do we really want Furcolow on grave robbing duty? Someone once said that he would probably commit an insanity infraction sooner or later, and after seeing how he plays, I'm inclined to agree on that. It would only be a matter of time before Furcolow screwed up.

On the subject of Sadism.

Feysal

is their any reason you haven't placed a vote yet?

No reason related to game rules. Vote hopping is just not my style. I prefer to vote when I have a more solid case to act on, or if my vote is needed to secure a lynch at deadline. That said, the case on ReaperCharlie put together by Seacore and MoI looks compelling, but I'd still like to read his posts in ISO before placing my vote.

[xvart]

If you are so sure, why are you not defending him with proper arguments? Your word alone does little to influence my opinion of him... though I've not yet really formed my opinion, I will have to read ReaperCharlie's posts to see where this wagon is coming from.

Feysal, meet DGB. DGB, meet Feysal.

This I don't get. El Goosuki said he was 100% sure of ReaperCharlie being town, and I am not certain at all. I said I'd have to read his posts to form my own opinion. If this was some pot-meet-kettle comment, I don't follow.

It was a joke. DGB rarely posts supporting evidence for reads. I was introducing the two of you.

Do we really want Furcolow on grave robbing duty? Someone once said that he would probably commit an insanity infraction sooner or later, and after seeing how he plays, I'm inclined to agree on that. It would only be a matter of time before Furcolow screwed up.

No, we want

his

grave to be

robbed

.

xvart.

[AurorusVox]

No, we want

his

grave to be

robbed

.

????

---

My initial reaction was "Why wouldn't he claim insanities?" but, thinking about it, what does the town get from knowing what insanities Furc took?

Feysal - so who would you suggest robbed graves instead of Furc? I know who I want to rob graves but I'll hear your idea first.

[Feysal]

My initial reaction was "Why wouldn't he claim insanities?" but, thinking about it, what does the town get from knowing what insanities Furc took?

I think Furcolow is a player we would need to keep an eye on, even when we trusted him to be town. Given how easily he confused Suicidal and Sadism above, he could easily get himself modkilled over an insanity infraction. I would prefer him to at least listen to advice on what insanities to take and when, to avoid screwing himself over.

Feysal - so who would you suggest robbed graves instead of Furc? I know who I want to rob graves but I'll hear your idea first.

Bad: Scummy player selected to rob grave, scum get corpse dust and equipment if we're

right

for the cheap cost of one insanity.
Good: Two townies players rob grave, no one gets anything as long as we're right on one of the two, two insanities.
Great: Townie we're sure of robs grave. Cultists not only get nothing, they have to take an insanity on the chin or else we get equipment, one insanity.

I've been thinking about Baby Spice and xvart. My reason is that they both claimed to have warded MoI, and I consider the odds of them both lying to be minimal. Ward would be dangerous to false claim unless you knew your claimed target was warded by someone else. If we have them both grave rob, that would satisfy what hitogoroshi called 'Good'. If one were lynched and flipped cult, I'd trust the survivor to rob graves alone, which would be 'Great'. I've had suspicions of them both, but lately xvart has looked much better compared to Baby Spice.

[AurorusVox]

Hmm. I was just going to suggest that we let Hito do it >_>"

Your plan could work, but contrary to you, I'm wondering if cult sharing targets is actually a viable strategy. It gives 2 players a claimable night action for the price of 1 player that they then can't kill.

---

Looking back at the noise/ward list, there's 5 players who claim to have made noise-making actions to four different players. There are 13 players who claim to have heard noise. 13 players, less 4 noise making targeted players, leaves

nine

unaccounted-for noises. I figure this could be explained by:
(a) some cult not fake-claiming ward on their craft fetish target
(b) some cult claiming to have heard noise when they didn't
(c) some wannabe murderers on the loose

What do people think the likeliest reasons are? I say reasons, because it has to be a combination of at least 2 of the above...and I think it could be a combination of all three =_="