Stars Aligned III - The Tenth Day

[Seacore]

What are our options Tom?

We kill Benmage and almost certainly hit an investigator, or we let him live and attempt to hit cult.

He's not going to be persuaded, nothing short of a lynch will stop him.

[Furpants_Tom]

I think you're wrong. I think a few votes short of a lynch would cause him to reconsider.

[Seacore]

Also, we did get a say in his kill.

Throughout Day 1, people were making cases. Ignoring those who died, there were cases on me, furc, MoI, xvart, among others. We all had an opportunity to say who was scummy, and at that stage Benmage chose his stalk target.

How is that any different to how vigging works?

Am I overjoyed that Benmage has set himself to take 3 insanity gaining actions right off the cuff? No. I don't like Benmage being on my team. But there's other stuff going on right now, like cultists not hanging from hemp. I'm not willing to kill Benmage and wait for Day 3 to start hunting cultists.
Fingers crossed, Benmage hits a cultist or a potential murderer. This conversation all goes away the moment he kills that target.


Preview edit: Have you played with Benmage before? Because I have.
If you get him to even L-1 you're unlikely going to make him reconsider. Especially when he knows lynching him is a bad move for town. He'll make you lynch him and then he'll blame you for it in the graveyard/post game. In the small chance that you do get him to "reconsider" he won't have actually reconsidered, he'll have lied. And we'll just be where we would be anyway, with the decision of whether to lynch him for lying.

[Benmage]

Fur you don't have nearly enough support to get me lynched. Way too many have voices opposition. Even prior to that I basically pleaded with vpb to start a shitty campaign on me, which I would've helped. He didn't, which is townpoints for him. Look at it this way you have a snowballs chance in hell of ever lynching me period. Forget the fact that you just showed your hand saying only a few votes. Now do some real scum hunting you're bleeding cult.

And sea....ehhh, right for the most part

[manho]

Does anyone genuinely believe this kill is more likely to hit scum than town?

me.

[Furpants_Tom]

Maybe so, I haven't played a game with him. But I do know something about ambit claims, and I know they work welll when applied early and forcefully. Especially when the other party is predisposed to be unreasonble, escalating measures and logic allow them to engage multiple defence mechanisms and erode your support. I'm guessing we've missed this opportunity in BenMage's case.

Perhaps more importantly, people's reluctance to use their votes as strategic pressure is something I'm finding a bit bewildering.

[xvart]

Call me a Stalinist control freak if you will, but don't you want some kind of a say in BenMage's vig? Is everyone really happy to let Captain Whacky vote someone off the island given that he's only just putting together a scum list right now? Does anyone genuinely believe this kill is more likely to hit scum than town?

I also don't want a constant discussion about Benmage throughout the rest of the game. We have some scum to hunt. Although, it would be a pretty sweet move if he was Cult to just keep causing mayhem to distract the town day after day with this crap.

xvart.

[Furcolow]

If you believe Benmage to be town (regardless of Murderer in Training ambitions or lack thereof) it is in the best interest of the town to allow his kill to go through. A Murderer in Training (especially an outted one) would have the same objective now as a town vig.

xvart.

Call me a Stalinist control freak if you will, but don't you want some kind of a say in BenMage's vig? Is everyone really happy to let Captain Whacky vote someone off the island given that he's only just putting together a scum list right now? Does anyone genuinely believe this kill is more likely to hit scum than town?

no.
secondly, I believe he might be cult. I wouldn't be surprised if he claimed a kill the cult did. They could ward the grave, or even rez the person he claimed to kill. This really opens up way too many options. That is why my vote is on BenMage until he either claims his target, or gives a list with his target in it. Even a list of 10 people would potentially be too many for the cult to waste their actions on, and I'd hope he could name 2-3 cult out of 10.

I don't like the WIFOM surrounding this. If he really wanted to be pro-town, he would claim who he was going to fucking kill, or tell us AFTER that he stalked.

if he had stalked, and said "I got a rez kit", then killed someone the next day, and said "I killed Baby Spice, but I'm not going to kill again, sorry about lying in the first place but I didn't want them rezzed..."

Even then, though, when the cult hear noise they know to rez that person.

[Seacore]

Furc, warding a grave doesn't matter in this situation. I think you need to go and read what warding a grave does, since you seem really confused by it as a concept.

Benmage can't claim a kill the cult did, because you can tell what kind of kill it was. Unless you're suggesting that he would say "somebody must have rez'd" in which case that person would come forward.

10 people would be too many to list as that's roughly how many people have unexplained noises during N1.

And you're suggesting that Benmage's most pro-town action would have been to lie to the town when he was asked explicitly "did you stalk, please list your insanities"

I think you need to look up "pro-town" along with the warding rules.

Finally, what do you think your vote on Benmage is doing? Are you willing to lynch him unless he provides the list? Because it doesn't seem like enough people are willing to lynch him for that alone.

[Furpants_Tom]

Fur you don't have nearly enough support to get me lynched. Way too many have voices opposition. Even prior to that I basically pleaded with vpb to start a shitty campaign on me, which I would've helped. He didn't, which is townpoints for him. Look at it this way you have a snowballs chance in hell of ever lynching me period. Forget the fact that you just showed your hand saying only a few votes. Now do some real scum hunting you're bleeding cult.

And sea....ehhh, right for the most part

Everything you're saying is true, except for the fact that we actually missed our chance to put real pressure on you about 12 hours ago when Wraith drifted away. Enjoy your kill, rogue agent, I'm gonna be real sad when Wraith turns out to be town.

[SpyreX]

ITT, SpyreX still has a hard-on of hate for me. I'll do this in a way you might understand:

POTENTIAL FOR WIFOM EXISTS. TO OUTRIGHT IGNORE THAT IS STUPID. I AM CAPABLE OF CONSIDERING MULTIPLE IDEAS AT ONCE. IT IS NOT HARD.

Better?

So, SpyreX, how comes when El G was doing nothing yesterday it wasn't worth a vote, but because Seacore says something, it suddenly is? If that's the only difference, why did you make the comment about 0%? Oh...and didn't multiple people tell me the 0% contribution argument was no good when I voted El G yesterday? So...are you trying to NOT look like you're bandwaggoning the vote? Trying to make it look like you have more than a baa to go on? Since, y'know, Plum called you out on that yesterday?

THE POTENTIAL FOR ALIENS TO EAT US ALL EXISTS LETS TALK ABOUT THAT SOME

I.e. in this world where its important enough to wifom wifom wifom in a setup where nokilling

is a very bad idea

what purpose does it serve other than to play prep for going "ohh no rezzers no way you're totally cult using that wifom extravaganza but, alas, it wont work because my wifom hat is made out of pure strawberries".

And the fact you think I voted because of doing 0% in a game where manho is still around that batting average is getting lower and lower.

Tech points for throwing Plum's name in there.

Super tech points for not even pretending to comment on the switch from Benmage wants to kill fate? TOWN GUYS YO PROMISE to LOOK AT THESE FILTHY MURDERERS.

---

As for Wraith.

This is why he's town:

THE BOLDED PART IS IMPORTANT. AS YOU CAN SEE, BENMAGE HAS NO INTENTION OF PLAYING FOR THE TOWN, AND INTENDS TO MURDER PEOPLE. HAPPY?

Because THAT is the straw that broke the camels back. And it was an important straw because it was the defining one that made it clear that Ben needs to go.

Now, IF IF Fate was cult maybe the argument could be made, but I'd eat a million hats if Fate was cult.

---

And, seriously:

Maybe so, I haven't played a game with him. But I do know something about ambit claims, and I know they work welll when applied early and forcefully. Especially when the other party is predisposed to be unreasonble, escalating measures and logic allow them to engage multiple defence mechanisms and erode your support. I'm guessing we've missed this opportunity in BenMage's case.

Perhaps more importantly, people's reluctance to use their votes as strategic pressure is something I'm finding a bit bewildering.

This after the d1 pigeonhole votes until RC and the 180 from "Ben killing is awesome" to "Ben is a plague" is a whoooooonellly of a switch.

[AurorusVox]

how else would he have 1 insanity

A little late, but the only way CultLB gets 1 insanity is by crafting three fetishes N0. Otherwise, he could have gained it from the other (non-cult) actions Seacore listed. I think it's essential to know whether or not he stalked N0 since that might indicate whether or not there was a cult kill last night or not (i.e. LB's may have been the kill attempt on Wicked)

That said, it is more of an outlandish theory now that no one else has claimed to have been an attempted-kill. At this point, the best way to ascertain whether LB stalked+murdered, or was really working for town, is if he has any equipment. Possession of equipment guarantees town, but lack of it does not guarantee murderer, so the best outcome is that someone robs his grave and gets equipment to prove the former.

Of course, he could still have stalked a warded target and thus given up on the murderer win-con. But if he has equipment it is probably more likely that he received the insanity from being passed a Fetish of himself - which would make those people who had received Fetishes of themselves sound more legitimate.

I get that people don't like mechanics-plans, but in this case it will really help out in determining how truthful some of what has been said actually is. And I'm well aware how unnecessarily complicated these theories sound, but I truly do believe that this setup is designed to suit complicated plans and gambits.

---

I feel like if most people are only willing to policy-lynch Benmage to stop him killing as an investigator tonight, that this will be a wasted lynch (not to mention if he flips town those people are absolved of their mistake). I know Wraith and Furpants clearly think he's investigator.

MoI

- do you think Benmage is more likely cult or investigator?

---

And the fact you think I voted because of doing 0% in a game where manho is still around that batting average is getting lower and lower.

Oh poor SpyreX, I stated that you were falsely claiming to use that as an excuse to mask your baaaaaaa after Seacore's vote. I don't really think you're voting him for that reason. I even go on to say that if Seacore's reason is the only thing that's making you want to vote El G, why didn't you just say that in the first place? Why mention 0% contribution at all? Baaa.

Tech points for throwing Plum's name in there.

Tech? She called you out on it. I'm seeing an attempt to evade that accusation. Does tech mean superawesomecool?

Super tech points for not even pretending to comment on the switch from Benmage wants to kill fate? TOWN GUYS YO PROMISE to LOOK AT THESE FILTHY MURDERERS.

Oh poor SpyreX once again, I believe you'll find that I've always stated that I felt Benmage was cult. I argued to make Benmage follow through on his kill of Fate to PROVE that he couldn't do it. I.e. to prove that he wasn't in fact town. If he had managed to kill Fate, I'd have had egg all over my face but it would have been the egg of a confirmed townie at least. But, I realised as the day drew on that such plans were futile due to a few reasons that we discussed, and swiftly dispatched of the plan.

I'm assuming "tech" is a negative term, so "Super tech points for you, for being completely wrong" - am I doing it right?

[Baby Spice]

Wasn't it John Lennon who sang: "Life is just what happens to you, While your busy trying to play Mafia"?

Anyway finally got some time to read this and respond.

To despatch or not to despatch. I think we should decide how many graves we want to rob before we start despatching Fate or RC.

Mod, can 'despatches' be 'undespatched'?

Preview edit: Doesn't matter. It's been answered

Point is still valid though.

#1795 If people want me to rob graves then I'll rob graves.

also, there is no fucking way I want baby spice or wraith to be robbing

and that would be because ...? I'm betting OMGUS btw.

- ALL of this screams that [Benmage] never stalked Fate, and that he didn't stalk last night.

What if Ben stalked, and killed, LB. Add the not taking twitchty,which could potential give away a bloody status, and it's a slim chance.

But I'm happy to rob and happy to not rob. Whichever the town prefers.

Am I the only one who finds Xvart and El Goos targeting each other slightly hinky. Especially with El G choosing to look for something that couldn't be there.

Why would [Benmage's] desperation to have [Wraith] dead result in him voting you with OMGUS if he STALKED you last Night? He wouldn't be desperate - if he needed you dead, he could deal with lynching someone else because he could kill you tonight. In conclusion: Wat? No, I don't think so.

Except that's what Ben did D1. #55 he voted Fate, who he claimed to have stalked.

Benmage can be controlled tonight with graverobbing;

Somehow I don't think so but we should make the attempt at it.

Ben: claim or don't claim. After FateHate I suspect some people, me included, don't trust Ben to actually be looking for scum as opposed to just looking for the kill. Screw it, Ben just kill or don't kill as the town says or as you wish and sufferthe consequences whatever they may be. Bugger claiming. Too much wifom screwing around potential either way.

I made comment above that I thought El G and Xvart loop targeting was hinky. So is Xvart's vote on El G.

Gonna go back and read them both.




IWC Cthulu

[manho]

benmage can't have killed LB last night if he killed someone tonight, so we don't need to worry about that.

[Benmage]

benmage can't have killed LB last night if he killed someone tonight, so we don't need to worry about that.

This.

[AurorusVox]

Crackpot theory: Benmage kills LB and then hopes for another murder to take place tonight to claim as his own OR claims he tried to kill someone who the cult "must" have rez'd. It's out there, sure, but it's not impossible.

[Baby Spice]

It explains Fatehate/fatestalk/fatelynch.
Why try and claim a kill when he can claim to have stalked the lynched player, or claimed to have changed his mind.

Far fetched but it does explain a lot.

[AurorusVox]

Personally I don't think that's exactly what happened, but I mention it because the second half ("Cult rez'd my stalk target, duh") forms part of my argument for how he could be cult and hope to get away with the unclaimed stalk target; and it's no good to have people operating under the assumption that it CAN'T have happened. Improbable =/= impossible.

[Seacore]

That kind of thought is a waste of time. You could have killed LB, I could have, anybody could have. Let's start looking at scum hunting rather than working out all the different possible combinations of actions.

[AurorusVox]

It's not a waste of time if people are willing to clear Benmage of killing last night, when in reality he could have. I mean, I agree that anybody could have killed LB, but manho and Benmage are saying that anybody-but-Benmage could have, which is untrue. Unless you want the rest of town to operate under this false pretence, I don't see what the problem with me raising this issue is.

[manho]

It's not a waste of time if people are willing to clear Benmage of killing last night, when in reality he could have. I mean, I agree that anybody could have killed LB, but manho and Benmage are saying that anybody-but-Benmage could have, which is untrue. Unless you want the rest of town to operate under this false pretence, I don't see what the problem with me raising this issue is.

ok then, benmage could have killed LB, but he's not cult, and he won't have a chance to achieve the murderer wincon, so he's definitely not today's lynch.
stop the benmage argument and scum-hunt.

[AurorusVox]

WHY do you not think he's cult? What has he done to make you think that? I'm sick of people using "stop with the mechanics" as an argument to NOT THINK THROUGH OR EXPLAIN what they're saying.

-You voted Benmage yesterday without explaining why. What's changed since then? You said today that he would eventually be murdered anyway - why didn't you think that yesterday?
-What alignment do you think LB was and why? Please back this up with speculation as to where you think his insanity came from. This is an important question because it relates to your "scum hunting" today. I will go into more detail once you've answered.
-The majority of your D2 posts have been plan-speculation about Benmage murdering/revealing his target; robbing graves; and dispatching people. Where do you get off telling me to stop with mechanics arguments when that's most of what you've done today?

[nopointinactingup]

Remember remember the fifth of November ...

[Wraith]

The gunpowder treason and plot...

[nopointinactingup]

I know no reason ..