Stars Aligned III - The Tenth Day

[AurorusVox]

im not certain im going to be robbing
i dont feel like i need confirmation at all

Furc, it's not to confirm you but to assist town =_="

Didn't mean to double post, I didn't realise I had also tabbed this quote to respond to.

[Furpants_Tom]

it is not that cult won't take risks, but that the risk is overwhelming the advantage.

OK, but they must be doing something today. If you were scum, what would that be?

Does anyone genuinely believe this kill is more likely to hit scum than town?

me.

Manho, who do you think Benmage is targeting?

i've no idea, as i haven't read day 1 yet.[/quote]

So how are you sure he'll hit scum?

Furpants:

Suspecting the two rezzers is one thing, but do you think they are both likely cult? I don't have an issue with the rest of your suspects, just the lingering annoyance that I had to call you out for you to start scum hunting again.

No, I think ONE of them is cult, and one is town. At the moment, I think there's a 55% chance it's npau, and a 45% chance it's Feysal. However, even 45% is a pretty high likelihood, so they both made my scum list.

And as much as I wish it were true, it wasn't your prompting that pulled me back into the game. Post #2000 by Seacore convinced me that my bluff was dead in the water, but stupidly, I attempted to apply CPR anyway, in posts #2001 and #2005. BenMage ninja'd me in #2003, and his gloating made me rage so hard I posted my sad little hissy-fit in #2009. After a re-read, it became obvious that I was starting to tunnel, so I took the weekend and Monday off, and returned yesterday. So, points to you for asking questions, but it wasn't really the driving cause.

Wicked

; I'd prefer you to launder tonight as one of your actions. Remaining bloody means there's no way to check you for murderous tendencies on future nights, especially since you'll be building a stock of insanities anyway

except that players who are cautious and theory-heavy usually try and bracket their weak gut-reads with some kind of fact-based security blanket, which he doesn't.

Not sure what you mean by fact-based security blanket, so can't really respond to this point..

Sorry, what I'm getting at is that when cautious players post gut-reads, they normally scrape around for any kind of fact-based justification for them, even if they know it's WIFOM, or manifestly unreasonable, and even if it comes off looking slightly scummy. Or they spend most of a paragraph telling people how unreliable their list is. In my experience, anyhow.

But he can help the Town because he is the closest thing we have to a confirmed investigator.

Disagree. i believe that honour goes to Wickedest.

NO NO NO

go read stars aligned II and see how resuscitation can

RUIN

town
this is

WIFOM

True, but he's still more confirmed than you.

[Furcolow]

AV why are you sucking up to MoI here?

How is it sucking up?

attacking his attacker/the other wagon
staging a question to MoI to help him appear pro-town

how is that not kissing his ass? you are being his yes man essentially.

[Furcolow]

im not certain im going to be robbing
i dont feel like i need confirmation at all

Furc, it's not to confirm you but to assist town =_="

Didn't mean to double post, I didn't realise I had also tabbed this quote to respond to.

i will rob one grave
i am ressing someone
i heard noise last night, so it would be nice if i didnt die myself

[Furcolow]

i also agree with wickedest laundering... or else

blind woman, deaf man, jackdaw fool
let the lord of chaos rule

[Furpants_Tom]

im not certain im going to be robbing
i dont feel like i need confirmation at all

Furc, it's not to confirm you but to assist town =_="

Didn't mean to double post, I didn't realise I had also tabbed this quote to respond to.

i will rob one grave
i am ressing someone
i heard noise last night, so it would be nice if i didnt die myself

Furc, if you're using resuscitate:

"Any Resuscitate action targeting you tonight will fail, and the player who targeted you will not be notified of the failure."

So if you choose to use your kit, we can't protect you. Maybe robbing two graves is a better idea?

[Vi]

Vote Count

*whisper whisper*

El Goosuki - 7

(Seacore, SpyreX, kunkstar7, Wraith, xvart, Nicodemus, AurorusVox)

MagnaofIllusion - 7

(Trilobite, VP Baltar, Benmage, VasudeVa, hitogoroshi, Furcolow, El Goosuki)

kunkstar7 - 3

(totallynotmafia, Wickedestjr, Furpants_Tom)

Wraith - 2

(Plum, manho)

Furpants_Tom - 1

(nopointinactingup)

Baby Spice - 1

(Triglav)

VasudeVa - 1

(MagnaofIllusion)

Benmage - 0

(Furpants_Tom)

Not Voting - 3 (Andrius, Baby Spice,

El Goosuki,

Feysal)

Fate

is currently

Soulless

. The following

10

players wish to

Dispatch Fate

: (VP Baltar, kunkstar7, MagnaofIllusion, Seacore, nopointinactingup, Trilobite, manho, Wickedestjr, Baby Spice,

Wraith,

Benmage)

Activity check whenever someone complains that someone needs a prod.

The deadline for

Day 2

is 10:30am, Wednesday November 24th default site time.

With 25 alive, 13 votes secures a Lynch/Dispatch.

[AurorusVox]

attacking his attacker/the other wagon
staging a question to MoI to help him appear pro-town

how is that not kissing his ass? you are being his yes man essentially.

You mean Ben is his other attacker? I'm not attacking Ben in this question. Unless you mean attacking El G? Because hello, El G needs to get lynched.
My question is not staged, nor is it intended to make him pro-town; it's to scumhunt him with my special brand of innocent-looking-questions. I'm like a trap-door spider.

[Furcolow]

of course i meant El G
nice deflection
answer the question

why are you sucking up to MoI?
why are you attacking El G?
you flip flop your position like a cultist

[AurorusVox]

I'm attacking El G because I think he's scum. I said that already. Why can't I pursue my scumreads?
I'm not sucking up to MoI. If you push me to explain my question, then it renders the question pointless. Ask me to explain again after MoI has responded.

[xvart]

I have fallen way behind. I just learned that I have Veteran's Day off, so I'll try and get a post up tomorrow.

xvart.

[Feysal]

Hi. I was busy during the weekend, fell a few pages behind, and only managed to catch up now. I'm somewhat caught up anyway, I'd still need to do ISO reads to sort out my thoughts on current suspects. I could just sheep, but I don't like doing that without doing my own reading.

Right now, based on what I can remember, I'm uncertain about both El Goosuki and MoI. El Goosuki has contributed nothing of value, and their night action was only more pointless since they had verifiably seen hitogoroshi's guide. They could be lazy cult, hiding behind a facade of stupidity. What gives me pause is the question, why would they do that? Nearly everyone has claimed to have not warded or successfully resuscitated. All the cult would have to say to blend in is to repeat what everyone else is saying. Also, I believe different people have said that the way they've played could be expected from them, at least some of their heads.

I was getting a more scummy feel of MoI after reading the last few pages of comments on his play, but there was nothing that really leapt at me as obviously scummy. Then there is kunkstar7 in third place with three votes, and he seems to have been away nearly as long as I have. I'll have to ISO read all three and get back to this.

Hmm. The way it could work is if, for example, Wickedestjr secretly decided to launder or not-launder tonight. Then El G forensic tools him and has a 50:50 chance of guessing correctly. It's not very reliable, though it could catch El G out.

I'm all for using information from night actions to catch scum, but I'm not sure if this plan would work. If El Goosuki is cult, and if they guess wrong, we could catch them, that is true. But doing this would mean El Goosuki does nothing useful for yet another night, and Wickedestjr could not rob two graves like currently planned. Also, the cult might actually have forensic tools they could use to provide the right answer and defeat this test.

Since Wickedestjr will be occupied with grave robbing (that is far more important than this test), another option would be to have El Goosuki target either me or nopoint, the other two bloody players. Problem is, neither of us is nearly as trusted as Wickedestjr, and the cult could defeat the test anyway by blind luck or using forensic tools. Still, it would be an improvement.

Wicked can do one grave rob and launder. It seems to be that the townie looking people we're choosing to grave rob would be better off doing one rob and an action, while the people we're relegating to bouncing graves because they look scummy should do double. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Personally, I think it would be best to concentrate town insanities on few players, so that others remain capable of communing. I see no problem with Wickedestjr robbing two graves, and Furcolow seems to want to rob one at most. If we're going to dispatch Fate, we'd need someone to rob the fourth grave.

Also, who do we consider scummy enough to be ordered into grave robbing? Baby Spice, Benmage, some of our current main wagons? We'd need to decide this too before ending the day.

Plenty of things "could" happen. Virtually none of them do. Given that I'm not sold on either you or Feysal, I think it's worth investigating.

Actually, with 8 possible targets and several people resuscitating, there is a high probability of overlap in targets. You should at least allow for the possibility that neither of us is lying. That said, I do understand your concern, so investigate away. If either of us had gotten bloody by ritual or murder, and false claimed to cover it up, we should also have insanities from those actions. I have none, and nopoint claimed to have none, so a commune should reveal if either of us had lied.

Fate - Robbed by Furcolow and Player A
ReaperCharlie - Robbed by Furcolow and Player B
Lost Butterfly - Robbed by Wickedestjr and Player A
Day 2 Lynch - Robbed by Wickedestjr and Player B

where Player A and Player B are the players we choose to rob graves. Me and Furcolow will know if those players didn't actually rob graves like they were supposed to, because we'll get equipment.

We still need to pick players A and B, and we should do it before we lock the lynch, since there probably won't be time after that. Also... Fate and RC claimed to have equipment, so with them you should know if the other player had robbed the grave. LB had an insanity, and the lynch of the day is undecided - there is no guarantee either of them will have any equipment to rob, so you would not know if the other player had done as they were told. So, I'm afraid there is no guarantee that either A or B would be stopped with this setup.

Also, should we at least consider having only one person rob Fate and RC to get the equipment? That would not be a waste of a free action. The res kit RC claimed to have may be a lost cause, since Furcolow has no use for it and Wickedestjr is bloody. But the occult books might be worth it.

[Wickedestjr]

Chalk it up to playstyle, game speed, whatever, I can't really provide a response to this.

I guess my point is you haven't really gotten into a battle/argument with somebody yet.

I'll say that I wasn't particularly thrilled to go into this game again with Furcolow. I'll admit that I let my emotions rule my judgement towards Furcolow and I felt his mess of a N0 claim was a manifestation of his murderous intent.

1. When did you finally decide that Furcolow was town?
2. So, at the time you were voting him, you thought he was going murderer?

How have I explicitly avoided taking stances? Or is it merely a lack of mention of stances?

You have avoided taking stances simply by not taking many...? Not sure what you meant by that question.

Yes, I'll admit that I do have a lot of theory posting, but that's what I enjoy about Stars Aligned.

It's not that you are doing too much theory posting. My problem is that you are doing mostly only that. The ultimate goal of the game is to catch scum, so you should be doing that as well during the day. I mean, in a normal game without these complex mechanics to discuss, you are still able to scumhunt, right? What makes this game any different?

My vote on Furcolow goes along with the previous point, not sure how it was opportunistic when Furcolow was playing horribly scummy and Percy's final clarification wasn't given to end the matter. Several players even voted Furcolow after myself, are they not opportunistic as well? Considering the lynch threshold I would argue against the opportunitistic claim of the El Goosuki vote, a third vote hardly constitutes a wagon. In any case El Goosuki has continued to display the issues that made me vote for them in the first place.

The vote for Furcolow was opportunistic, because he was the one getting all the attention at the time. Yes, some of the votes afterwards might've been opportunistic, but there are two reasons why I'm attacking you and not them:
1. All of your votes imo have been opportunistic.
2. There are multiple scum in this game. Just because several people may be opportunistic voting, doesn't mean I'm not allowed to attack any of them, because the point can be applied to others. Nice deflection attempt.
Regarding El Goosuki, the bandwagon may have only been three votes, but it was one of the biggest at the time of your vote.

My D1 scumreads weren't strong, but fairly confident in townreads though. Most of its gut D1 for me. El Goosuki has continued to flounder and doesn't provide any input of their own, point in case - MoI vote.

50 pages into the game and you are resorting to gut? First of all, gut reads are better than no reads. Secondly, the points you brought up against those players which I called bad weren't gut based, and they were very weak reasoned. I find it hard to believe you didn't see any better material.

kunkstar7 could use some more votes.

Wicked; I'd prefer you to launder tonight as one of your actions. Remaining bloody means there's no way to check you for murderous tendencies on future nights, especially since you'll be building a stock of insanities anyway

No.
1. I think Launder is a useless night action this early in the game.
2. There are other potential murderers in this game.
3. I've upgraded my grave robbing plan:

Night 2: We go with the grave rob plan I brought up yesterday.
Night 3: We have three players who have yet to rob graves rob graves this night. (This is assuming there are three graves.)
Night 4: We have three players who have yet to rob graves rob graves this night. (This is assuming there are three graves.)

..and doing the same thing, following this pattern for nights 5 and 6. I realize this means that lots of people will have higher insanity counts and allows cult to get corpse dust, but preventing a large group of players from grave robbing can be very beneficial for two reasons:
1. It is likely that it will stop the murderer from murdering and delays their win condition.
2. It will give us information regarding who the murderer is: If we follow this plan and somebody is murdered night 3, then that means none of the SEVEN players that robbed graves nights 2 or 3 are murderers. Similarly, no murder night 3 and nobody claiming to have been protected from a kill is a strong indicator that somebody that was robbing graves is the murderer.

Regarding the two problems that also arise from this situation, I think they are easily avoidable.

Higher insanity counts shouldn't be too much of a problem in this case for two reasons:
1. We will be able to keep track of how many insanities each player should have, so there is still no place for cultists or murderers to hide.
2. A world in which everybody has at least two insanities is nearly the equivalent of a world in which we are all at square one. With lots of people having higher insanity counts,

they

can use commune to verify if a player has been doing things they shouldn't be.

Corpse dust isn't too problematic, but is more difficult to prevent. There are a few things to keep in mind though:
1. We choose who grave robs. We can have players that are unlikely scumpartners or very townish looking robbing graves to prevent scum from acquiring corpse dust.
2. If we have several players that we know are using forensic kits, we can force cultists to launder thus making killing without being caught a bit more difficult.

I know that this isn't something we really have to worry about now, but I think it is a good plan. Thoughts? The only problems are that it results in more focus on the murderer instead of cult (but we can be lynching cult during the day, like kunkstar7 and manho) and it could result in corpse dust a night or two. However, I think the importance of the benefits outweight these detriments.

[Trilobite]

No, I think ONE of them is cult, and one is town. At the moment, I think there's a 55% chance it's npau, and a 45% chance it's Feysal. However, even 45% is a pretty high likelihood, so they both made my scum list.

Okay I just wanted to make that clear in my mind because someone had to have rezzed Wicked (discounting the WIFOM of it being one big cult plan)

Why do you think npau is the more likely cult?

~Sotty

[MagnaofIllusion]

Given this game has degenerated into what amounts to personal conflicts I’m going to make one final, and I do mean final, address to the following elements that make up the ‘case’ against me.

1. I’m being mean / vindictive / poisonous.
2. I’m being defensive / I’m more worried about my survival than finding scum.
3. I’m not scum-hunting.

1 and 2 aren’t true and furthermore are scum-tells. I’m far from the only person who has been abrasive in this game. And I did in purposely. I’m rather tired of getting killed very early in Large games when I am Town. Antagonizing those players who are weak enough to rise to the bait was specifically designed to lower my NK threshold. You may not like it but it certain isn’t indicative at all that I’m Cult.

3 is a factor of my playstyle. Delayed flip games limit my strength which is Vote analysis and relational analysis. Until we have some flips that confirm alignment, and usually at least 1 Cult, my scum hunting is going to be somewhat hampered. I don’t really see any effective scum-hunting coming from anyone at this point. Truth.

On to general observations –

The following players are massively lurking. That in itself isn’t a scum-tell but in a game this size, especially with the number of spammers we have in the game, means that in this select group you can expect to find some Cult taking advantage of the format.

Andrius, El Goo, Feysal, manho, NoPoint, TNM

On to Plum –

I know this is heresee to all the Plum fans out there but her contributions to the game so far don’t impress me as Obv-Town. Sorry, they don’t. Case in point – her contributions today pretty much consist of talking about some plan with Spyrex about targeted murders that is realistically going no-where and is just busy work masquerading as Town planning. Not even scum-hunting in the least. Don't let the fact that she's dear old Plum blind you.

The wagons today –

The competing wagons between myself and El Goo are going to be very useful down the line, I suspect. I know I’m not Cult and depending on whether El Goo is or not (the massive lurking from the slot makes me lean toward yes, BTW) a Vote Count analysis down the line will give you plenty of information about who went to which wagon and who stayed away from either.

On to specific quotes –

@VV re 2120

– I’m not going to bother except for the following. The rest is you just posturing.

After your cult flip, guess who's going down? It's pretty natural to line up this lynch, really.

And when I don’t flip Cult what then? Because I will not. Your ‘case’ is predicated, as I have said before, based on your wounded pride.

So when I do flip Investigator all the ‘Cult’ relational tells you’ve been yapping about go up in smoke. Is Kunkster (and anyone else) who dismiss your ‘case’ as pointless still Cult then?

Yawn. I use rhetoric, sure I do! I mean, we have to convince people right? Stating analysis is boring, and people don't read analysis. I had a case on you because your pushing for Furc is horribad plus other stuff.

Your limitiations of attention don’t mean that everyone suffers from said flaws. Rhetoric clearly isn’t more convincing than actual scum-hunting.

And on to after 2120 –

3 corpses is 1 less than 4 corpses. That's a 25% decrease of corpses that cult could use to get dust!

WHAT AN AMAZING OFFER. UNDISPATCH NOW!

What you have once again failed to clarify is the huge danger that dust represents. If the Cult does manage to get one use of it do you think it is that damaging to Town? Cult doesn’t get an additional kill form it or anything else. You have to explain why a one-shot potential to prevent 1 level or Rez is worth your panic-mongering.

Flips > fear. Enough said.

Worse than us, which is no small challenge:

VOTE: MagnaofIllusion

Your survivalist vote simply on an opposing wagon is noted. And I hardly am worse than your slot given the vaunted repuation of 2 of the 3 of you. Seriously between three players this is the best effort you can come up with?

MoI: what's your position on letting Benmage kill tonight and why?

I’m not willing to lynch him at this stage because the chance he is Cult goes to zero with a successful kill tonight. And lynching him is the only thing Town can do to ‘not let’ Benmage kill. He will not respond to any other stimulus. So any discussion outside of whether to lynch him is pointless.

MoI - what do you think of AV today?

His continued 1 on 1 sandbox fight with Spyrex continues to whelm me. For all the attention I have got for needling VV it is funny that their continued sniping has gone basically unacknowledged. Other than that I see many questions that look like scum-hutning but really aren’t that effective. Much like most everyone else.

Two people just happening to rez the cult kill is a huge coinkydink. I'm trying to figure out who had a genuinely townie reason to protect him, because I think there's a good chance you're not both telling the truth.

What your analysis doesn’t take into account is all the unsuccessful rezes that may or may not have gone on last night. We have no clue if others might have doubled up on any of the others in the ‘group of 8’ targets. It is entirely possible that multiple doubles-up happened and we only know about 1 due to the failed Cult kill. And it is possible that, given the Ritual is a free action, both rezes prevented a Greater Ritual from succeeding on Wicked.

I see absolutely no uncertainty in that flip. None, zero, zip.

So I'll be THAT GUY and say why bother with it? Not today, not later, not ever.

This is not wise. Actively giving scum a free janitored slot is not going to be helpful long-term. And taking care of the flip process while there are as many players as possible to help is the smart way to go.

EBWOP: that's an opinion, but it's backed up by your words in thread. I'm not passing empty judgement on what you've written.

It may not be empty judgement, but it is incorrect. Nothing in your case against me (sans being a meanie) doesn't apply to many other players (some of which are 'confirmed Town'). And when I see more detailed scum-hunting form anyone (even yourself, natch) than what I did with RC we can talk. Otherwise I’ll feel free to return the favor call your scum-hunting pitiful. It’s my opinion but it’s backed by your posting and isn’t empty judgement.

also, you saying I'll be a detriment in the endgame... go read this game of me as town:
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=14722&start=1375

A single game doesn’t really change my opinion of you. Sorry. Your play here, in Harry Potter and other games I have read forms a more solid conclusion for me.

Come talk to me when you have a 5 or 10 game track record of not flinging crap all over the thread, not accusing more than 50% of the game during Day 1 of being scum, and generally being able to put together a reasoned posts routinely.

Here’s a hint – quoting three straight posts in a row and saying QFT isn’t scum-hunting or even usefully contributing. It’s spamming of the sheep variety.

[AurorusVox]

MoI: what's your position on letting Benmage kill tonight and why?

I’m not willing to lynch him at this stage because the chance he is Cult goes to zero with a successful kill tonight. And lynching him is the only thing Town can do to ‘not let’ Benmage kill. He will not respond to any other stimulus. So any discussion outside of whether to lynch him is pointless.

Nice way to not answer the question. It sounds like you're saying you don't want to stop him from killing, but do you think Benmage SHOULD kill tonight, and why?

[Trilobite]

Given this game has degenerated into what amounts to personal conflicts I’m going to make one final, and I do mean final, address to the following elements that make up the ‘case’ against me.

1. I’m being mean / vindictive / poisonous.
2. I’m being defensive / I’m more worried about my survival than finding scum.
3. I’m not scum-hunting.

1 and 2 aren’t true and furthermore are scum-tells. I’m far from the only person who has been abrasive in this game. And I did in purposely. I’m rather tired of getting killed very early in Large games when I am Town. Antagonizing those players who are weak enough to rise to the bait was specifically designed to lower my NK threshold. You may not like it but it certain isn’t indicative at all that I’m Cult.

See, the problem here is that you deny 1 and 2 while admitting to them at the same time... that's spinning my brain around in circles.

Also, saying you're doing things to avoid being killed early amounts to admitting that you're playing scummy. You can't say that people don't have legitimate points on you when this is your defense for those actions.

3 is a factor of my playstyle. Delayed flip games limit my strength which is Vote analysis and relational analysis. Until we have some flips that confirm alignment, and usually at least 1 Cult, my scum hunting is going to be somewhat hampered. I don’t really see any effective scum-hunting coming from anyone at this point. Truth.

Oh! It's your playstyle! Uhhh... no. That's not an acceptable reason to not be scumhunting.

[Trilobite]

Another observation.

On to general observations –

The following players are massively lurking.

That in itself isn’t a scum-tell

but in a game this size, especially with the number of spammers we have in the game, means that in this select group you can expect to find some Cult taking advantage of the format.

Andrius, El Goo, Feysal, manho, NoPoint, TNM

The competing wagons between myself and El Goo are going to be very useful down the line, I suspect. I know I’m not Cult and depending on whether El Goo is or not (the massive lurking from the slot makes me lean toward yes, BTW) a Vote Count analysis down the line will give you plenty of information about who went to which wagon and who stayed away from either.

Which is it?

[Plum]

I know this is heresee to all the Plum fans out there but her contributions to the game so far don’t impress me as Obv-Town. Sorry, they don’t. Case in point – her contributions today pretty much consist of talking about some plan with Spyrex about targeted murders that is realistically going no-where and is just busy work masquerading as Town planning. Not even scum-hunting in the least. Don't let the fact that she's dear old Plum blind you.

What are you trying to say here? Are you actively susicious of me, or just don't find me obv-Town? If it's the latter, but you currently don't suspect me, why write this at all? If you

do

suspect me, why did you write this not as a case but as an admonition to anyone who finds me Townish? In either case I don't see a good reason for this to be formulated the way this is.

More on this after MoI responds.

[VasudeVa]

And when I don’t flip Cult what then? Because I will not. Your ‘case’ is predicated, as I have said before, based on your wounded pride.

So when I do flip Investigator all the ‘Cult’ relational tells you’ve been yapping about go up in smoke. Is Kunkster (and anyone else) who dismiss your ‘case’ as pointless still Cult then?

You assume too much. My tunnel on you is not in anyway related to this 'pride' thing you are talking about.

I'd buy that it could come off at me getting pissed at you for calling me subpar...but really the easier explanation here is your own abrasion especially since you prefered to spread your poison rather than address my points itself. The points you are rebutting

right now

are the very points I was talking about on

D1

. Was that really so hard?

Other people have dismissed my case too actually(Seacore, for one.). I didn't call him scum for that. But kunk's defense on you is just super bad and scummy.

Your limitiations of attention don’t mean that everyone suffers from said flaws. Rhetoric clearly isn’t more convincing than actual scum-hunting.

That doesn't mean that I can't use rhetoric to convince people. I had a case fleshed out, people were ignoring me. So rhetoric it is!

What you have once again failed to clarify is the huge danger that dust represents. If the Cult does manage to get one use of it do you think it is that damaging to Town? Cult doesn’t get an additional kill form it or anything else. You have to explain why a one-shot potential to prevent 1 level or Rez is worth your panic-mongering.

Flips > fear. Enough said.

Uhm, yeah. Cult dust is super powerful especially at the early game. It's a

free

greater ritual. At this stage of the game, greater rituals come at a huge cost. 2/3rds of the scumteam getting bloodied and insane. That's 4 bloody and insane scum.

If they get cult dust, they can easily kill our obvTowns without paying the sanity/blood price. I want our cultists getting bloodied up and insane for targeting obvTowns, thx.

---

MoI, do you really think I'm scum? Why are you voting for me? Do you even have a case?

[Furcolow]

i found that last post from MoI to be poisoning the well, and his admission of not wanting to scumhunt is worth a noose

[Furpants_Tom]

Plenty of things "could" happen. Virtually none of them do. Given that I'm not sold on either you or Feysal, I think it's worth investigating.

Actually, with 8 possible targets and several people resuscitating, there is a high probability of overlap in targets. You should at least allow for the possibility that neither of us is lying. That said, I do understand your concern, so investigate away. If either of us had gotten bloody by ritual or murder, and false claimed to cover it up, we should also have insanities from those actions. I have none, and nopoint claimed to have none, so a commune should reveal if either of us had lied.

What your analysis doesn’t take into account is all the unsuccessful rezes that may or may not have gone on last night. We have no clue if others might have doubled up on any of the others in the ‘group of 8’ targets. It is entirely possible that multiple doubles-up happened and we only know about 1 due to the failed Cult kill. And it is possible that, given the Ritual is a free action, both rezes prevented a Greater Ritual from succeeding on Wicked.

Well, the overlap isn't just between two investigators - as you say, that's statistically likely (assuming randomness). However, the likelihood of three actions targeting the same player (cult, npau, Feysal) is significantly smaller, and no-one's pointed to any standout qualities of Wicked that might attract these actions, over, say, VP Baltar or xvart. However, there's a limited field, and potentially a fair few kits, so I haven't entirely disregarded the possibility of a coincidence; I'm just skeptical at this point. I think it's at least as good an indicator as any of the behavioural reads people are throwing around.

Feysal right about insanities, but there's one flaw to the commune plan - pass fetish resolves before commune; and you've both heard noise, so we should assume the cult has fetishes if it wishes to mess up our investigation. Even so, those with books should consider communing on both of you anyway, because persuading the cult to pass you both a fetish means you're safe from cult for a night. (Since it causes "Craft fetish" to fail if performed on the same night). And on the offchance the cult chooses not to do so, you'll be almost-confirmed town.

Why do you think npau is the more likely cult?

Because Feysal had a properly thought out reason as to why he protected Wicked when initially asked. Npau had just entered the game, and had presumably just read through the whole thread - I'd assume he would be more likely to have a non-trivial, non-emotional reason for taking his night action; but it took 3 questions to get him to explain his reasoning. I realise that's weaksauce, which is why it's not yet enough to attract my vote; but it does put him ahead of Feysal on my scumometer.

[Baby Spice]

MoI

If you don't think Furc is of any use to the town, why didn't you just stalk him and vig him out? Confirming your status as an investigator in the process.
If you don't scum hunt well before flips are revealed, why not keep a bit quieter and wait for them?
If you wanted to dribble scum to avoid being a NK, why do so in such an abrasive fashion? Especially in a game with so much potential for "doctor" saves for those who manage to get obv/confirmed town status.

And on the offchance the cult chooses not to do so, you'll be almost-confirmed town.

Not sure I understood that bit. Not being passed a fetish is town confirmation?

[Wraith]

Crap. I've been spreading myself a little thin as of late. I'll try to concentrate on this game tomorrow or Friday.

[Seacore]

And on the offchance the cult chooses not to do so, you'll be almost-confirmed town.

Not sure I understood that bit. Not being passed a fetish is town confirmation?

Being communed and not passed a fetish = town confirmation, in the specific case of the two alleged rezzers.