The Return to Liten (Game Over)

[Nero Cain]

Still like where my vote is. Still think trying to control the vig/SK is bad.

Still? This implies that I've been doing so before. Whats that saying; Two heads are better than 1? If thad is town vig it makes sense to listen to what others might have to say.

[LimMePls]

Still as in "I sill have this opinion".

[MagnaofIllusion]

Re: MoI's big Votecount Analysis
Not sure how my actions are considered scummy. I thought Untrod was scum and I would have been pushing for his lynch today had he not turned up dead.
That's a nice big list of accusing everyone but yourself, our Vig/SK, and Thor. I should also add Alamaster, but I can see why you might have forgotten to add him to your list.

Your attempt to discredit indirectly is noted. Let’s address your points, shall I?

1. I’ve explained my thought process as to why your vote flow might be indicative of scum. Do you directly disagree that your late move (like the other players I mentioned) to Square is worthy of review?
2. I’m not going to put myself on my list to ISO and review. I know my own alignment. It’s rather stupid for you to suggest I should be my own suspect.
3. Admiral isn’t under suspicion because I am looking for relational tells for Mafia. He’s proven he’s a repeatable second kill and thus not Mafia. It’s hard to mine relational tells for a Serial Killer
4. Despite AGM’s lack of input his consistency in terms of Square backs up my Town read on him. Had he been a Mafian with Square I find it hard to believe he’d not have throw his support some other way at some point.

If you’d like to take a look at the Raw Data and make a better analysis knock yourself out. All I see here you doing here is criticizing not scum-hunting.

ISO of Twomz

–

I note he makes his random vote for LMP at ISO 1 and then votes Feysal for set-up speculating and not placing a random vote.

Overall I see some light scum-hunting related to Bowser but ISO 4 to 9 look mostly like active lurking.

Pushed Data to L-2 with only a single line of borrowed reasoning and immediately unvotes after the claim.

So far nothing causing the Scum detector to expode until ...

Is it good or bad that when my gut told me I should think about moving my vote to Square Obscure, other players started piling votes on him? I'll actually toss a vote down later today after I can double check votes and reread a bit.

This is the first thing I see as strongly scummy in Twomz’s ISO. He’s testing public opinion as to whether Square Ob is a good place to place his then inactive vote.

*Narrows eyes*

I'm actually thinking BP GF or a RBer who plans on targeting ThAd tonight.

Anyone else agree with me? I don't want to put him at L-1 if I'm the only one who doubts the claim.

Further seeking of approval and overall caution. If he really did doubt the claim he should be slapping down a vote. It appears to be crafted to look Town oriented (I don’t want to put him in range of a Quickhammer) when we know after the fact that a scum quickhammer on a claimed BP wasn’t coming.

I'm willing to back up my opinions in this matter, I think he's scum regardless of claim. We should also get some info tomorrow from the wagon.

Now that others have expressed concern about the claim he’s happy to move in a Town approved way. Also notice the suggestion that the wagon should yield info that he never followed up on.

Hmmm, so who was saying not to lynch Tripod? Gotta look back through posts...

And bah, two medics? I'm assuming the laser rifle was ThAd?

Yet again suggests a course of scum-hunting action he lets disappear into the mists.

And I missed him doing the ‘Damn, two medics down’ tell that I questioned Slaxx about.

I prefer to hear why others are voting to make sure I agree with the reasons behind the wagon (I tend to skim a lot so I miss obvious things sometimes).

That said I'm in no rush to finish the day and will be content to wait until Feysal claims before tossing my vote down, but unless he's speedlynched I will be tossing my vote down somewhere.

The bolded portion sets my scum-dar ringing. Town never has a reason to obsolve their own lazyiness and restrict their voting to cases made by others.

ISOs 28 and 29 I’ve already commented on.

I’d feel comfortable keeping my vote here for the moment.

Tommorow

– ISOing my other top suspects CES and APCakes.

[HackerHuck]

Re: MoI's big Votecount Analysis
Not sure how my actions are considered scummy. I thought Untrod was scum and I would have been pushing for his lynch today had he not turned up dead.
That's a nice big list of accusing everyone but yourself, our Vig/SK, and Thor. I should also add Alamaster, but I can see why you might have forgotten to add him to your list.

Your attempt to discredit indirectly is noted. Let’s address your points, shall I?

1. I’ve explained my thought process as to why your vote flow might be indicative of scum. Do you directly disagree that your late move (like the other players I mentioned) to Square is worthy of review?
2. I’m not going to put myself on my list to ISO and review. I know my own alignment. It’s rather stupid for you to suggest I should be my own suspect.
3. Admiral isn’t under suspicion because I am looking for relational tells for Mafia. He’s proven he’s a repeatable second kill and thus not Mafia. It’s hard to mine relational tells for a Serial Killer
4. Despite AGM’s lack of input his consistency in terms of Square backs up my Town read on him. Had he been a Mafian with Square I find it hard to believe he’d not have throw his support some other way at some point.

If you’d like to take a look at the Raw Data and make a better analysis knock yourself out. All I see here you doing here is criticizing not scum-hunting.

I thought my attempt to discredit was pretty apparent. I chose to look more at actions throughout the last two days than a wagon analysis, but I don't fault you for your choice of attack. I am criticising because you were giving the appearance of scum hunting with all of that noise.

I understand why you didn't put yourself on the list and why ThAd wasn't there. If you take away Alamaster (who I just assumed you forgot about in your review), then your big wall of text said - "I should look at everybody except Thor." When a long analysis like that brings no real results (you had already posted that opinion about why Thor was town), then it just looks like you're pretending to scumhunt without taking a strong position. It's exactly what you called Twomz scummy for doing.

[Twomz]

@ MoI

1) I don't get your "Testing the waters" thing. I tend to speak my mind, if I think "My gut tells me SO is scum, wow a lot of others seem to be saying that, I wonder if that's a good thing?" there's a good chance I'll write something like that in a post.

2) I'm extremely prolynch and extremely antiquickhammer. It's actually a null tell on me, I'll be on a almost every lynch of a game, but the whole time be saying 'we're at L-X guys, we still have time today, don't hammer without waiting for more conversation'.

3) Every wagon will have info on it, some more than others. But sometimes the info can only be drawn out on later days. Just cause nothings been definitively shown (I have referred to both lynches) doesn't mean nothing will be shown later.

4) The two medics dying in the same night elicited a comment from me /shrug. I understand the logic behind the 'tell', but I've never noticed it being any more accurate than say, lurkers are scum.

5) So, wanting to hear others cases to make sure there's no 'That guy's obvscum, lynch him!' without backup is going on is a bad thing? Reading other peoples cases helps me cement my own reads and helps me spot faulty logic.

[LimMePls]

^^Does this post seem overly defensive to anyone else?

[MagnaofIllusion]

When a long analysis like that brings no real results (you had already posted that opinion about why Thor was town), then it just looks like you're pretending to scumhunt without taking a strong position. It's exactly what you called Twomz scummy for doing.

Except your aren’t paying attention. The results of my VC analysis point to my Top three suspects – CES, APCakes and Twomz. That you keep repeating that I’m not identifying suspects is incorrect.

1) I don't get your "Testing the waters" thing. I tend to speak my mind, if I think "My gut tells me SO is scum, wow a lot of others seem to be saying that, I wonder if that's a good thing?" there's a good chance I'll write something like that in a post.

It’s troubling to me because of the passivity of your play. You say that you have a gut scum read on SquareOb. Several other players have publicly attacked him. Yet instead of voting and pressuring him you say “Hmmm … is this a good thing?”. That’s pandering to public opinion and making sure your actions are ‘Town proofed’. Which I feel is scummy.

3) Every wagon will have info on it, some more than others. But sometimes the info can only be drawn out on later days. Just cause nothings been definitively shown (I have referred to both lynches) doesn't mean nothing will be shown later.

Back-track much? For the record here is your statement again …

I'm willing to back up my opinions in this matter, I think he's scum regardless of claim.

We should also get some info tomorrow from the wagon.

Note the bolded statement. You didn’t say down the line information would come from the lynch. You said tomorrow, which was Day 2. And while you did touch briefly in a very non-commital way Day 3 with one post on the subject you basically came to the conclusion that no-one on the wagon was scum. That’s not exactly drawing out information is it?

5) So, wanting to hear others cases to make sure there's no 'That guy's obvscum, lynch him!' without backup is going on is a bad thing? Reading other peoples cases helps me cement my own reads and helps me spot faulty logic.

Nice selective argument there. Wanting to hear others cases isn’t automatically a bad thing. Doing so as opposed to providing any of your own scum-hunting is.

APCakes ISO

–

Well that’s not a difficult task.

16 total posts from a Hydra on Day 3.

The sparse nature of the posts and total lack of reasoning used to support the votes here pretty much sum up the slot as an active lurker.

Willing to hammer. SO's use of a bastard mod game to back up their reasoning is ridiculous.

Dana really needs to be looked at bad. Will put a post together this weekend if I have time.

Actually, if no one objects, I will hammer in the next few hours.

Two things to not like about this post.

1. Willing to hammer SO despite not a single mention of Square Ob in their ISO before this post.
2. As mentioned in my Twomz ISO – the need for approval for their actions is scum-tastic.

Aside from the issues I’ve already pointed out to APCakes about their ISO 12 (which they never bothered to follow up on, if you notice) I’d like to also draw attention to the timing of said ‘case’. It comes, quite convientaly after our exchange Day 2 where I pretty much advocate them as a solid Vig target. I’d say this qualifies as ‘Attacking the attacker’.

HH analysis is solid.
Vote: Nero Cain

We also need to set up a way to vote for vig target. How does using the color purple for vig votes sound?

Note the first post with any content after Night 2 is basically a sheep of Hacker. No mention of his case on me from Day 2 or any attempt to answer my response.

As an active lurker I'd normally suggest they are still great Vig / SK fodder. That said with two scum already down I'm more than willing to have ApCakes swing as a non-contributor who has made some questionable posts in what little content they have tried to provide.

CES is next sometime soon.

MOD – As usual I’ll be V/LA from 4PM EST today until Monday for my usual weekend family duties.

[Thor665]

@LMP - It's certainly defensive.

"Overly" defensive is a matter of meta - and I don't know Twomz enough to know whether he is usually that defensive when town or not.

[ThAdmiral]

Apathy should post more. Or get lynched.

[LimMePls]

Why is it only a matter of meta? Why can't events be judged solely on the merits of the game? The post looks more defensive than is at all needed. I just ISO'ed Twomz for it, and I'm feeling open to a Twomz lynch at this point.

[Thor665]

Why is it only a matter of meta? Why can't events be judged solely on the merits of the game?

Events - yes.
Personality - no.

Furcolow will OMGUS players every time they so much as question him and he does this as town and scum. We don't lynch him for it right away because (unfortunately) it's part of his meta.
Same applies here - is Twomz always so defensive, or is this slightly out of the norm? If the former I would support a lynch far less then the latter.

[apathyplusCUPCAKES]

APC's other head flaked, thus down to one head.

This head's been terribly busy as of late, apologies. May get time this weekend.

[Twomz]

I respond to cases against me... I don't see it as being overly defensive though .

@ MoI: I've never actually been told before that I was playing too cautiously, I tend to just spew what I'm thinking and it usually just makes me look scummy (if anything, I look less scummy as scum cause I filter my posts more than I do as town).

I'm aware that I need to pick up scum hunting in this game. I thought I'd be able to find something concrete in the two scum lynches, but as I said earlier... I don't really see anything that yells scum at me. I put my vote on the person I thought had the best chance of being scum, but there's a very good chance I'll end up throwing my vote on whoever has the most votes if we get close to a lynch or a deadline.

[Thor665]

APC's other head flaked, thus down to one head.

This head's been terribly busy as of late, apologies. May get time this weekend.

Do you need to replace out?

If you're uncertain you'll even have time to do anything this weekend and this is a situation that will continue for more then 7 days or so and with the holidays approaching perhaps the best solution is to request replacement.
If you love the game and don't want to replace out then methinks you should be able to at least cobble some time together for the game you love about once every two days.

[Furry]

Will get caught up tomorrow. This week has been horrible for time.

<3 Me

[SaintKerrigan]

Hey guys, I know I haven't been able to keep up as much with the flavor, and believe me, no one is more disappointed by this than me. That doesn't mean you guys ought to slack off so I can catch up with the flavor. Generally, I get more excited about writing when I don't have to worry about doing a prod check.

tl;dr Let's pick up the pace.

Also, I have the night scene for Day 3 finished. Only one more to go! (Might be two if I feel cheery after writing the first one.)

[Furry]

Well im honestly a little lost in this game, mostly due to the feeling that I have way too many leaning town reads, but way to few strong town and strong scum reads. I in part blame Thad for this one as he has killed two people who I had as top five town reads already when you take the time to see how they interacted with others.

Anyway, my list at this point

~Town~
MoI
AGM
LMP (really borderline, want him here but cant quite justify SO wasnt a bus)

~Prob Town~
APC

~Lean Scum~
Slaxx
HH
Thor

~Scum~
CES
NC
Twomz

Still on the fence about Thad. I think im letting getting really pissed that he keeps killing my town reads get in the way of my read on him since a scum doctor may actually suggest that he is a vig over SK.

One big thing I keep going through is NC vs HH/Thor. I get somewhat of a scum read on all of those three, but in the case that one flips scum, everyone on the other side is probably town flat out. Also as a side note, NC scum means AGM is even more town then he already is.

Slaxx is still really really sending me into *twitchy* attacks. Most of the time, I get a really quick town read on him, but its not here in this game. Also it is not due to his activity. Activity is only a reliable tell for a few people, and Slaxx is not one of these people. I just completely am gut activated over him.

Something about NC is giving me wet feet, mostly the way he seemed to half comment on a scumslip from Feysal, although he didnt follow through with it.

I would be willing to lynch either CES or Twomz at this point.

[Thor665]

One big thing I keep going through is NC vs HH/Thor.

Do you mean NC vs. MoI/Thor or maybe NC/Thor vs. HH? I'm pretty sure HH and I disagree about our reads towards NC, so this isn't making a lot of sense to me.

Is APC town still based on his presentation of thoughts Day 2? (or Day 1, I forget)

[Furry]

One big thing I keep going through is NC vs HH/Thor.

Do you mean NC vs. MoI/Thor or maybe NC/Thor vs. HH? I'm pretty sure HH and I disagree about our reads towards NC, so this isn't making a lot of sense to me.

No, I mean what I said. If NC is scum you are both going to be town. If NC is town, it adds to my scum read on you two a little, not enough to condemn if one flips scum, but I see no way we have a NC-Thor or NC-HH pairing.

Is APC town still based on his presentation of thoughts Day 2? (or Day 1, I forget)

His post fake hammer reaction. Instead of doing something that was non-commital, he laid down a small case. I dont see scum throwing something out there in twilight where they are possible vig bait instead of laying low. Biggest thing against him is the "lets control the vig" thing, which is a case supplement not case driving force, especially with doctor dead. I would not be down for voting him today though

[Furry]

Ya know what? Im going to make a bit of a gamble/reach and say that NC is actually town in this scenario. He really makes little to no sense as scum with anyone in this game expect a few null-ish reads. Its similar to how I got to a town read on UT, no one really makes sense as scum with him, and just about everyone is lining themselves up for a lynch of him.

CES needs rope, Twomz needs a bullet, game needs to start moving.

Im going to say at LEAST two of a CES/Twomz/[HH/Thor] group is scum here.

[AlmasterGM]

Vote: Twomz

I am going with Twomz-scum. The arguments I think are strongest are:

1) ISO reads like lots of coasting on days 1/2. He doesn't pick it up until D3, where two of his buddies are dead.

Also, inb4omgurhypocritical: here's a difference between not posting and coasting.

2) He was late on the SO wagon.

3 I agree that 697 was overtly defensive.

I also get a gut scum read on him, which just reinforces the logical reasons why he would be scum.

With regards to TheAdmiral, I can understand one shitty shot (hell, I've made crappy Vig shots myself), but two in a row is unacceptable. If the shots don't start picking up in skill, he dies.

I also have this itching feeling that MoI is scum, but I can't put my finger on it. I will be investigating this more.

[AlmasterGM]

I also don't like the way Thor is interacting with Twomz. It's lots of vague but elaborate dancing - e.g., I COULD be on the lynch (but I'm not), that COULD be defensive (but we don't know), and now let me ask some irrelevant question so we stop talking about Twomz for a bit.

I could easily buy into these two being a scum pair.

[AlmasterGM]

Apathy should post more. Or get lynched.

OR SHOT.

[AlmasterGM]

Also holy shit ISO Cogito Ergo Sum, he's like 70% silence, 20% noise, 10% content, and 100% scummy.

[Thor665]

@Furry - To be slightly rude, the HH/Thor thing seems anally extracted. What's the logic there and how does NC being town equate to one of us being more likely scum?

@Almaster - so you think Twomz *was* being overdefensive towards MoI?