@Slaxx - if neither Twomz nor CES is scum, who is?
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Vote: Cogito Ergo Sum
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Re-reading Day 3.
VC analysis is still elaborately making stupid arguments (the fact that I've yet to see it not point to me is just evidence of this).
¿¿¿ I had used ambiguous phrasing in my preceding post, he misunderstood, I explained to him what I meant. How the hell does that constitute giving him "a chance to redeme(sic) himself"?Furry wrote:Im totally willing to throw down a Twomz vote, but given past experiences, the formation and comments on the two wagons suggests that the right lynch here is CES. You can look at how many times he tries to give SO a chance to redeme himself in such quotes as
Square, my use of role in the preceding post was meant in the sense of power. So a vig and an SK would be the same role with different alignment.
You seemed to understand that I voted SO mostly over his flavour, so what is this nonsense? I pushed him to give his flavour, since the fact that he wasn't giving any flavour suggested strongly that he would have to make stuff up. The more pressure is on him to give his flavour, the less he can afford to stall. And I never gave up; I got exactly what I wanted out of him: a confession in the form of a bad flavourclaim and then I voted for him.Furry wrote:or
or evenI demand flavour.
after that he gave up on him and jumped on the wagon.P.S. Anyone else notice Squara Obscura hasn't posted BP flavour yet despite Wraith posting elsewhere?
I don't like the Twomzwagon. He's made several posts that twinged my gut in a town sense now and a lot of the accusations against him seem unfounded if one considers his playstyle, which I'm somewhat familiar with if I'm not confusing him with Tamuz. LMP's push on him I've especially disliked.
I have not. 22 posts over 15 pages (I replaced in on page 10, Day 3 started on page 25) is perfectly normal activity.AlmasterGM wrote:@CES - The first thing you should do is explain your coasting the entire game.
I'm going tovote: LynchMePls. Reading his iso he seems much too dismissive of SO's claim, his anti-control the vig position is most definitely pro-scum and his push on Twomz reeked. I don't like Furry either though; I expect better from him.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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Yes, VC analysis has never caught scum before, it must be stupidCES wrote:VC analysis is still elaborately making stupid arguments (the fact that I've yet to see it not point to me is just evidence of this).
If you constantly are off scum wagons until it looks like obv-bussing and on Town wagons maybe the problem is not with VC analysis but with your play.
Despite AGM’s summary I’ll be looking at CES’s ISO later today or in the next day or so.
Here’s the question to you Thor – are you actively looking into said meta when arguments like this arise or just using it as an excuse to avoid taking a stance on a wagon?Thor wrote:Furcolow will OMGUS players every time they so much as question him and he does this as town and scum. We don't lynch him for it right away because (unfortunately) it's part of his meta.
Same applies here - is Twomz always so defensive, or is this slightly out of the norm? If the former I would support a lynch far less then the latter.
Your approach so far has been very cautious and seeking of mass approval. Which is scummy.Twomz wrote:@ MoI: I've never actually been told before that I was playing too cautiously, I tend to just spew what I'm thinking and it usually just makes me look scummy (if anything, I look less scummy as scum cause I filter my posts more than I do as town).
You self-meta is noted and placed where I place other self-meta provided arguments – the garbage can. Self-meta argument are useless.
What you are saying here is that when you are Town you play in a scummy manner but play much more carefully as scum. If so you are doing a great disservice to every Town player in games where you are Town.
Facepalm … just facepalm.Twomz wrote:Because I see no point in withholding... I'm a VT.
Why are you claiming when not at L-1 at this juncture?
Quite honestly I don’t think this makes much sense at all Furry.Furry wrote:His post fake hammer reaction. Instead of doing something that was non-commital, he laid down a small case. I dont see scum throwing something out there in twilight where they are possible vig bait instead of laying low.
1. APCakes was strong vig-bait coming into Day 2.
2. APCakes provides, once again, not content before your gambit. This is one of the reasons they were considered vig-bait in the first place
So you think his reaction (throwing down a quick ‘case’) was the reaction that only could come from Town? If so I disagree. I see it as the reaction of someone who knows they are in danger and does whatever they can to survive. Which is a Null-tell as either alignment has a reason to not want to be NKed.
Your insistence that Twomz must be Town despite his play is noted.
Slaxx your potential inside knowledge is showing. I don’t see any reason to volunteer as a Vig target when you should have NO IDEA about CES’s alignment. Scumtastic.Slaxx wrote:I never miss a chance to bus partners.
If CES flips scum feel free to vig me >>. Just not sure about this wagon.
So if Admiral makes what you consider another faulty shot tonight your course of action is not to lynch someone who looks to be a SK but to direct them N4?ApCakes wrote:That said, willing to concede today, but we are DEFINATELY directing tomorrow if thad gives us another SK shot tonight.
This makes no sense. With 2 Mafia already down Town has significant numerical advantage. Having two kills a Night only helps scum if Admiral continues to take shots that are generally considered sub-standard. If his shot tonight is bad lynching him, given your statements that you think he is a Serial Killer, is the correct course of action.
Either that your you should not be giving up on directing his shot for tonight.
That you are willing to continue to let him live if he ‘gives us another SK shot tonight’ is not a Town POV. If he acts like a SK you hang him and give Town extra lynches to accomplish what you are wanting to accomplish with the directed shots. Only scum would want a Suspected SK around while directing their shots.
Oh good, gut. Which head are you that didn’t flake again? Also if you are 90% sure he is scum why aren’t you voting for him?ApCakes wrote:If my gut is not pulling any shenanigans, then I am sure that thor is 90% scum."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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Oh, I'm sure it's "caught" scum before. So does randomly picking people. It's stupid because it's an elaborate framework for making appeals to plausibility, mixing a priori and a posteriori reasoning and ignoring people's playstyles.MoI wrote:Yes, VC analysis has never caught scum before, it must be stupid
If that were my playstyle (I voted Feysal early and I'm not sure whether SO would've been lynched without that flavourclaim), then the problem would be with both. If VC analysis leads to nonsensical conclusions (ie. X is likely to be scum because X is doing what he normally does), there is clearly something wrong with it.MoI wrote:If you constantly are off scum wagons until it looks like obv-bussing and on Town wagons maybe the problem is not with VC analysis but with your play.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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CES wrote: which I'm somewhat familiar with if I'm notconfusing him with Tamuz.
On another note, after I claimed I was kinda expecting some flavor claim calls, like there were for SO. Are we thinking that withholding info about VTs will make it harder for scum to claim later or does no one care about it?
@ MoI: I think CES thinks I'm town BECAUSE of my play, not DESPITE my play."It's not a logical inconsistency. B can't be correct because then C would be, but it doesn't go the other way - there's nothing wrong with C being correct. Aside from Twomz saying otherwise." --Mith- LimMePls
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1) His claim was illogical and nonsensical given his "Are you a strongman" question earlier in the thread. Of course I dismissed it, it was obviously fake.CES wrote:I'm going to vote: LynchMePls. Reading his iso he seems much too dismissive of SO's claim, his anti-control the vig position is most definitely pro-scum and his push on Twomz reeked. I don't like Furry either though; I expect better from him.
2) Having the town vote on the vig kill is bad. Calling that anti-town is hilarious.
3) I was phoning it in, I have to admit. What about it "reeked" exactly?"LynchMePls is more town than all the players I've ever declared to be townies. And that's never going to change." - Drippereth
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No. Making the vig a strongman to weaken the bulletproof townie wouldn't be an unreasonable move by the mod. The strongman question makes less sense from a mafia doctor perspective since then the mafia doctor's existence is pointless. It wasn't "obviously fake" and I think you misjudged this because you knew SO was scum.LynchMePls wrote:1) His claim was illogical and nonsensical given his "Are you a strongman" question earlier in the thread. Of course I dismissed it, it was obviously fake.
I prefer a second lynch to letting an untrustworthy madman loose with a gun. ThAd does not inspire confidence.LynchMePls wrote:2) Having the town vote on the vig kill is bad. Calling that anti-town is hilarious.
It's gut-based mostly, but the lateness of the vote definitely stood out.LynchMePls wrote:3) I was phoning it in, I have to admit. What about it "reeked" exactly?Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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I'm lazy, I was hoping someone else who had already played with Twomz would show up and chime in with it.MagnaofIllusion wrote:Here’s the question to you Thor – are you actively looking into said meta when arguments like this arise or just using it as an excuse to avoid taking a stance on a wagon?
I've made a stance on the Twomz wagon subsequent to this comment.
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I already went round and round on this before, but let me try again. Suppose you are a bulletproof townie. You learn that a vig exists. Should you ask if the vig is a strongman? Since you are bulletproof, whether the vig is strongman or not is IRRELEVANT to you. If he is strongman, then he can shoot you and you die. If he isn't, then he can shoot you and you live. In neither case does your knowing which he is change the outcome. Thus asking for this information cannot help you. Thus all it does is help the scum (by giving them more information about the vig). Thus his question was anti-town.Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:
No. Making the vig a strongman to weaken the bulletproof townie wouldn't be an unreasonable move by the mod. The strongman question makes less sense from a mafia doctor perspective since then the mafia doctor's existence is pointless. It wasn't "obviously fake" and I think you misjudged this because you knew SO was scum.LynchMePls wrote:1) His claim was illogical and nonsensical given his "Are you a strongman" question earlier in the thread. Of course I dismissed it, it was obviously fake.
What is hard to understand about this?
Allowing the town to vote on the vig/SK kill gives the scum too much of an information advantage. As it stands now, they have to worry about where the kill is going. If they manipulate the kill by voting, then they could mess with it (via some form of scum PR) if its going to target scum, and leave the kill alone if it is targeted at town. Not to mention they are influencing where it goes in the first place. So it isn't a second lynch, it's a second lynch that is less likely to succeed if aimed at scum and more likely to succeed if aimed at town. IT IS BAD!
I prefer a second lynch to letting an untrustworthy madman loose with a gun. ThAd does not inspire confidence.LynchMePls wrote:2) Having the town vote on the vig kill is bad. Calling that anti-town is hilarious.
Gut is an easy position for scum to fall back to. It can't be disproved.
It's gut-based mostly, but the lateness of the vote definitely stood out.LynchMePls wrote:3) I was phoning it in, I have to admit. What about it "reeked" exactly?
CES is still a good lynch folks."LynchMePls is more town than all the players I've ever declared to be townies. And that's never going to change." - Drippereth
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Wait...what?CES wrote:It's stupid because it's an elaborate framework for making appeals to plausibility, mixing a priori and a posteriori reasoning and ignoring people's playstyles.
1) Isn't all scumhunting an appeal to plausibility (e.g., scum are more or less likely to do this or that)?
2) How does it use a priori reasoning when all of the analysis involved is deduced from events that have occurred? Where does VC analysis claim anything to be objectively true independent of experiences?
3) Why does VC analysis intrinsically ignore playstyles? If somebody has a tendency to heavily bus/not bus as scum, then VC analysis could reveal that. Also, if scumhunting-by-playstyle is preferred, where are you doing any of that? Do you even know the playstyles of most of the people in this game? Show me the scum you have caught thus far in this game by doing meta analysis.
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Personally I probably would have hit NC, then on Night 2 I would have random.orged it (list of all players I thought weren't town). Either that or lurkers /shrug."It's not a logical inconsistency. B can't be correct because then C would be, but it doesn't go the other way - there's nothing wrong with C being correct. Aside from Twomz saying otherwise." --Mith- LimMePls
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*twitch*
This game...
I wish I had a town read that wasnt sheeping me at this point. I need to do something to get a handle on it since I feel that im somehow stuck in a leading role when I dont have the normal strength of reads to back it up. Maybe just scrapping everything and doing a reread, I dunno.
@CES - So you thought that SO was scum due to the flavor part of his claim over the role part?
MoI raises a decent point on APCs late case possibly coming from scum, and with quite a few of his posts today im starting to second guess that read of him. Maybe im just applying my playstyle to others a little too haphazardly.
I need frickin something in this game to make some conclusive sense (and also town reads to stop getting killed by scum AND thad)Temporary unretired alt- Cogito Ergo Sum
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If he claims to be a strongman, then he's more likely to be town since a strongman makes sense in the presence of a town BP. It's still a weird question and arguably anti-town, but his claiming BP doesn't really tie into that (your argument just shows there wasn't any added benefit (apart from the thing I just said).LMP wrote:I already went round and round on this before, but let me try again. Suppose you are a bulletproof townie. You learn that a vig exists. Should you ask if the vig is a strongman? Since you are bulletproof, whether the vig is strongman or not is IRRELEVANT to you. If he is strongman, then he can shoot you and you die. If he isn't, then he can shoot you and you live. In neither case does your knowing which he is change the outcome. Thus asking for this information cannot help you. Thus all it does is help the scum (by giving them more information about the vig). Thus his question was anti-town.
What is hard to understand about this?
We already lynched one doc. If a scum RB decides to RB, then we'll know it happened. I'd rather give the target a chance to claim and the investigative role an easier time selecting targets. You're just focusing on the negatives.LMP wrote:Allowing the town to vote on the vig/SK kill gives the scum too much of an information advantage. As it stands now, they have to worry about where the kill is going. If they manipulate the kill by voting, then they could mess with it (via some form of scum PR) if its going to target scum, and leave the kill alone if it is targeted at town. Not to mention they are influencing where it goes in the first place. So it isn't a second lynch, it's a second lynch that is less likely to succeed if aimed at scum and more likely to succeed if aimed at town. IT IS BAD!
Gut is also awesome. I'd be more suspicious of myself if I weren't advocating stuff based on my gut.LMP wrote:Gut is an easy position for scum to fall back to. It can't be disproved.
When I say appeal to plausibility, I'm referring to the conjunction fallacy, mostly. A bunch of plausible statements are still quite unlikely taken together, but they appear quite plausible to humans.AlmasterGM wrote:1) Isn't all scumhunting an appeal to plausibility (e.g., scum are more or less likely to do this or that)?
You get your estimates of how many scum are on wagons from a priori reasoning, no?AlmasterGM wrote:2) How does it use a priori reasoning when all of the analysis involved is deduced from events that have occurred? Where does VC analysis claim anything to be objectively true independent of experiences?
I'm sure VC analysis just happened to pick out a wagonhappy trio. Get real. As for me scumhunting by playstyle, my opinion of Twomz would be a definite example; I'm familiar with the playstyles of a good chunk of a game and when I don't, I try to discount my initial impressions somewhat to account for it. I can't show any scum I caught by in it in this game, since I had different reasons to suspect SO and Feysal, sorry; playstyle considerations tend to downgrade tells more often anyway.AlmasterGM wrote:3) Why does VC analysis intrinsically ignore playstyles? If somebody has a tendency to heavily bus/not bus as scum, then VC analysis could reveal that. Also, if scumhunting-by-playstyle is preferred, where are you doing any of that? Do you even know the playstyles of most of the people in this game? Show me the scum you have caught thus far in this game by doing meta analysis.
Conciseness is pro-town. I doubt I would've posted substantially more if this was my only game for example.AlmasterGM wrote:So we are going by number of posts and not content? That's convenient, seeing as most of your posts are one or two lines and don't even say anything.
Feysal would've been a good kill Night 1 for one.ThAd wrote:Just out of interest who would have been good kills nights 1 and 2. I meant to ask this earlier.
Yarr.Furry wrote:@CES - So you thought that SO was scum due to the flavor part of his claim over the role part?Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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No, and I can relate why to The Wheel of Time. Some people are Rand, they have strong gut reads and are 'Mary Sues' so things tend to go their way. Some people are Perrin, calm and calculating but can be easily angered, thinks things out, plans. Some people are Mat, they goof off and tend to go with the flow, but are extremely lucky.LynchMePls wrote:random.org'ed it!? Are you trolling?
I am a Mat. I hate being VT cause if I get a night action, usually I can do something with it. I hit scum as cop/vig, I nail the kill target with doc (this one is unverified because I always get lynched Day 1 as doc (the day after the doc dies if I'm a nurse)), don't ask me how I do it, a lot of the time I actually do random.org it. Works for me for whatever reason /shrug."It's not a logical inconsistency. B can't be correct because then C would be, but it doesn't go the other way - there's nothing wrong with C being correct. Aside from Twomz saying otherwise." --Mith- Cogito Ergo Sum
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Why does a strongman vig make more sense when there is a town BP?Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:
If he claims to be a strongman, then he's more likely to be town since a strongman makes sense in the presence of a town BP. It's still a weird question and arguably anti-town, but his claiming BP doesn't really tie into that (your argument just shows there wasn't any added benefit (apart from the thing I just said).LMP wrote:I already went round and round on this before, but let me try again. Suppose you are a bulletproof townie. You learn that a vig exists. Should you ask if the vig is a strongman? Since you are bulletproof, whether the vig is strongman or not is IRRELEVANT to you. If he is strongman, then he can shoot you and you die. If he isn't, then he can shoot you and you live. In neither case does your knowing which he is change the outcome. Thus asking for this information cannot help you. Thus all it does is help the scum (by giving them more information about the vig). Thus his question was anti-town.
What is hard to understand about this?
This is fine reasoning. I still don't think it's a good idea, but your position is the first logical one I've heard anyone give for why we should have the vig/SK claim his shots. I still don't know if I like the idea of voting on it. Why couldn't we gain this same benefit by Thad claiming his shot before we finish the lynch? That way the scum don't get to influence where his shot is going?
We already lynched one doc. If a scum RB decides to RB, then we'll know it happened. I'd rather give the target a chance to claim and the investigative role an easier time selecting targets. You're just focusing on the negatives.LMP wrote:Allowing the town to vote on the vig/SK kill gives the scum too much of an information advantage. As it stands now, they have to worry about where the kill is going. If they manipulate the kill by voting, then they could mess with it (via some form of scum PR) if its going to target scum, and leave the kill alone if it is targeted at town. Not to mention they are influencing where it goes in the first place. So it isn't a second lynch, it's a second lynch that is less likely to succeed if aimed at scum and more likely to succeed if aimed at town. IT IS BAD!
Gut is also awesome. I'd be more suspicious of myself if I weren't advocating stuff based on my gut.LMP wrote:Gut is an easy position for scum to fall back to. It can't be disproved.
QFT.
Feysal would've been a good kill Night 1 for one.ThAd wrote:Just out of interest who would have been good kills nights 1 and 2. I meant to ask this earlier.
After this exchange with CES, and with Twomz's "I'd use random.org for the NK" statement, I decided to put together a full case on Twomz.
I think there are a number of things in his ISO that are scummy. They are:
ISO 3: The vote on Feysal didn't make much sense. Also the cutsie "Welcome to Mafiascum " strikes me as possible scum/scum interaction.
ISO 11: Wishy-washy statement to set up the bus or to stay off it, whichever way the wind blew.
This post is from scum.Twomz ISO 14 wrote:*Narrows eyes*
I'm actually thinking BP GF or a RBer who plans on targeting ThAd tonight.
Anyone else agree with me? I don't want to put him at L-1 if I'm the only one who doubts the claim.
ISO 16: L-1 vote on SO. Prime bussing opportunity.
ISO 18: "And bah, two medics?" LOL.
ISO 19: "So the case against Feysal is pretty much that he fencesat all day 1, commented that Bowser was 'odder' than SO but neither was scummy (ISO 7) and never laid down a vote on anyone?" This question seems designed to be a weak defense of Feysal. As in: "That's all the case is?"
ISO 23: Only votes Feysal once he claimed scum.
ISO 26: "the scummier I am, the more likely I am to be town". Wow. That is some awesome self-meta wifom there.
ISO 30: Previously mentioned overdefesniveness.
ISO 31: Admits that he needs to pick up scum hunting, thought he'd get more from the VC. Earlier in the thread, said that he was good at scumhunting with VC's/Night actions. So basically he tries to disown his own scum hunting ability except with VCs, and now he is disowning his scum hunting with VCs.
ISO 33: Doesn't provide flavor with his VT claim, and KNOWS that he didn't, but still doesn't provide it. "Iwas kinda expecting some flavor claim calls" seems scummy to me. If you were expecting them, then why not provide the flavor with the claim?
This is just absurd.Twomz wrote:I am a Mat. I hate being VT cause if I get a night action, usually I can do something with it. I hit scum as cop/vig, I nail the kill target with doc (this one is unverified because I always get lynched Day 1 as doc (the day after the doc dies if I'm a nurse)), don't ask me how I do it, a lot of the time I actually do random.org it. Works for me for whatever reason /shrug.
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Vote: Twomz
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For a strongman vigilante to make sense, there needs to be protection for him to bypass (docs don't count since something's going wrong if the doc and vig are targetting the same player) AND the protection has to be meaningful (since otherwise the mod can just remove the protection and the strongman). The existence of a BP townie works for both.LynchMePls wrote:Why does a strongman vig make more sense when there is a town BP?
We could, but I, for one, don't trust him.LynchMePls wrote:This is fine reasoning. I still don't think it's a good idea, but your position is the first logical one I've heard anyone give for why we should have the vig/SK claim his shots. I still don't know if I like the idea of voting on it. Why couldn't we gain this same benefit by Thad claiming his shot before we finish the lynch? That way the scum don't get to influence where his shot is going?
I agree with you here. Had this written down somewhere myself.LynchMePls wrote:ISO 19: "So the case against Feysal is pretty much that he fencesat all day 1, commented that Bowser was 'odder' than SO but neither was scummy (ISO 7) and never laid down a vote on anyone?" This question seems designed to be a weak defense of Feysal. As in: "That's all the case is?"
Unvote, vote: FurryScumchat is awesome. Yarr!
~"Multiple exclamation marks are a sure sign of a diseased mind."~- SaintKerrigan
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SaintKerrigan Brings Out The Flavour
- SaintKerrigan
- Brings Out The Flavour
- Brings Out The Flavour
- Posts: 3808
- Joined: September 6, 2009
- Location: Drowning in printing ink.
Vote Count 3.2
(4) Cogito Ergo Sum: Furry, Almaster GM, Nero Cain, Thor665
(2) Nero Cain: apathyplusCUPCAKES, HackerHuck
(1) apathyplusCUPCAKES: ThAdmiral
(1) Thor665: Twomz
(1) Twomz: MagnaofIllusion, LynchMePls
(1) Furry: Cogito Ergo Sum
Not Voting: Slaxx
With twelve people alive, it takes seven votes to lynch.
The deadline is Sunday, November 28th, 2010 at 11:00 a.m. CST.
(And yeah, I got interrupted in the middle of making the vote count. )Last edited by SaintKerrigan on Mon Dec 06, 2010 6:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.ALMOST ALWAYS BUSY 9-6 CST WEEKDAYSCopyright © MafiaScum. All rights reserved.
- SaintKerrigan
- Cogito Ergo Sum
- LimMePls
- Cogito Ergo Sum
- Twomz
- Cogito Ergo Sum
- Furry
- SaintKerrigan
- LimMePls
- Twomz
- ThAdmiral
- AlmasterGM
- AlmasterGM
- LimMePls
- Thor665
- Cogito Ergo Sum
- LimMePls
- Twomz
- Cogito Ergo Sum
- MagnaofIllusion
- Cogito Ergo Sum
- Thor665
- LimMePls
- AlmasterGM