The Return to Liten (Game Over)

[Thor665]

Well, we are rolling into the week of Thanksgiving here, as I recall last year there was kind of a slump in activity during that time.

I'd like to hear from Slaxx still, a no vote is sad.
Also, apathy and Hacker should either start wilding beating the cymbals on the NC wagon or at least weigh in on the CES and Twomz options that are flitting around.

ISO 19 is the only part of your Twomz case that seems that exciting, a fair bit of what you note could even be said of CES just as easily. Why do you think Twomz is so runaway better now?

[LimMePls]

CES' recent posts seem willing to engage with the game, all I see from Twomz is fluff, scummy posts, and content only in defense of himself.

CES is by no means off the table. Twomz response to the "who would you NK" buisness just seemed so ludicrious that it inspired me to look more at Twomz. I mean what kind of answer is "I'd random.org it" to that question. Talk about avoiding making a scum read at all costs. Basically what he is saying is that on N2, he thinks using a random number generator pointed at a list of players is better than his reads of those players.

[LimMePls]

ISO 19 is the only part of your Twomz case that seems that exciting, a fair bit of what you note could even be said of CES just as easily. Why do you think Twomz is so runaway better now?

What about this:

ISO 31: Admits that he needs to pick up scum hunting, thought he'd get more from the VC. Earlier in the thread, said that he was good at scumhunting with VC's/Night actions. So basically he tries to disown his own scum hunting ability except with VCs, and now he is disowning his scum hunting with VCs.

Don't you think it is interesting that early in the game, he avoids all responsibility by saying "I need VC/Night-actions to hunt scum" and now that we have them, we get "I thought I'd be able to find something concrete in the two scum lynches, but as I said earlier... I don't really see anything that yells scum at me." So he is essentially refusing to give solid reads on anything, even when we've reached a game state he claimed earlier was beneficial to his scum hunting.

[Thor665]

Okay, I'm sold;

Unvote: CES
Vote: Twomz

That paired with the random.org comment does tend to showcase a history of avoiding giving reads and opinions.

[SaintKerrigan]

HackerHuck has been prodded.

[HackerHuck]

Sorry about the absence. Just finished up a pair of classes that took a lot more work than I expected, so I won't be disappearing like that again.

I'm not following Furry's train of thought at all, but I'm more concerned about how Thor kept trying to bring me into that argument. Simplistically, I get that Furry doesn't think I'm bussing Nero, so we can't be scum together. It's mostly his other posts that I find confusing. Anyway, I still think Nero's the best play for today. If I had to pick CES or Twomz, I'd chose Twomz. I'm find CES' apparent scumminess based on his lack of effort rather than any scummy actions. I think he can definitely wait from a lynch perspective. I would really like to understand why people think that nero is just playing newbie or VI. I realise that he doesn't have the most conventional thought process, but that's not a townie tell. If you look at what he hasn't done, that's where you find the scumminess. The fact that he's mostly ignored Feysal and SO strikes me as plenty odd, yet people seem to be overlooking that. Given his play, I also wouldn't be surprised to see his partners bussing him because it's been relatively safe the way that some people are protecting him.

[Thor665]

Personally I think Furry brought you into the conversation, not me. He mentioned us as the pairing and *then* I started discussing it - how exactly did I bring it up in your mind?

[apathyplusCUPCAKES]

I have yet to read what happened on the last page. If this was not covered, then someone still needs to explain the case on CES, as I did not get it prior to my last posts.

V/LA until Sunday

. May be able to get a post in inbetween then, dunno.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@APCakes

– Ignoring the questions I put to you at 729 aren’t going to make me forget them. Answers – you need to give them.

Just out of interest who would have been good kills nights 1 and 2. I meant to ask this earlier.

I can’t say as I really can quibble that much with your N1 kill, regardless of the result. Dana was in my pool of Dana, APCakes and Feysal who I thought needed a bullet.

Night 2 as I said I would have preferred either APCakes or Nero to Untrod.

@CES

- The whole argument involving why a Town BP would indicate a Town Strongman is stupid, pointless and irrelevant. It involves assumptions that clearly have nothing to do with the game and revolves around set-up speculation that isn’t useful to scum-hunting.

Oh, I'm sure it's "caught" scum before. So does randomly picking people. It's stupid because it's an elaborate framework for making appeals to plausibility, mixing a priori and a posteriori reasoning and ignoring people's playstyles.

Aside from the statistics language Bingo you used at the end that AGM already mentioned this is a horrible argument.

1. Trying to assert that VC Analysis isn’t any better than ‘randomly’ picking people is just plain incorrect.
2. Mafia in itself is a large appeal to plausibility. Town doesn’t have complete information and has to make rational and logical assumptions based on the information they have.

It’s clear you don’t understand how a VC Analysis works based on this statement. I’d show you clear examples by which scum who weren’t ‘wagonshappy’ as you put it were identified by VC Analysis but I’m guessing your mind is made up so no amount of evidence will change it.

If VC analysis leads to nonsensical conclusions (ie. X is likely to be scum because X is doing what he normally does), there is clearly something wrong with it.

Can you argue against either of these assertions that I made in the VC of Day 1 regarding you is incorrect?

1. That you were on Danakillsu’s wagon to the very end of that wagon.
2. That you were on the Untrod Tripod wagon up until the point where SquareOb became the leading wagon at the end of the Day.
3. That your reasoning for being on the SquareOb wagon was at best weak.

Regardless of you ‘playstyle’ you appear on wagons Day 1 in three different places I consider indicative of possible scum play.

Gut is also awesome. I'd be more suspicious of myself if I weren't advocating stuff based on my gut.

Lol. This I find hilarious. Gut is as effective for catching scum as randomly selecting people. Which, as you said, is stupid.

Conciseness is pro-town. I doubt I would've posted substantially more if this was my only game for example.

You know what’s also Pro-Town? Not throwing down generally content free posts Day 1 and 2. The only reason you’ve actually made solid contributions to the thread today is the fact you are under fire.

Feysal would've been a good kill Night 1 for one.

Hindsight is 20/20 isn’t it? Funny you didn’t mention Feysal Day 1 when the question about good Night targets was raised. Yet Day 2 after Spyrex starts the wagon that is 3 votes deep suddenly you ISOed him and decided he was a good target.

@ MoI: I think CES thinks I'm town BECAUSE of my play, not DESPITE my play.

Yes, and I think that’s a problem given your play.

Personally I probably would have hit NC, then on Night 2 I would have random.orged it (list of all players I thought weren't town). Either that or lurkers /shrug.

So despite your grand statements that you nail scum with Night Powers your method of choice is random.org or nailing lurkers?

I'm lazy, I was hoping someone else who had already played with Twomz would show up and chime in with it.
I've made a stance on the Twomz wagon subsequent to this comment.
Do you think Twomz was being over defensive?

Being lazy is no excuse. How do you know that the player who might claim Twomz meta knowledge isn’t scum with an ulterior motive?

Why in ISO 72 did you say you don’t see the Twomz case then? You’ve stated in your response to me that you didn’t do meta-research yourself.

And why did you add the statement ‘which, the way this game is going for me, suggests he’s the only definite scum on the list’? You’ve basically established a fence-sitting position where you say you don’t believe the wagon but leave the door wide open to eventually join the wagon (which you did, BTW) as public opinion shifts.

I don’t see over-defensive as any different than defensive. His reasoning in response to my questions I don’t see as valid.

[Thor665]

Being lazy is no excuse. How do you know that the player who might claim Twomz meta knowledge isn’t scum with an ulterior motive?

If one of the scum wants to come in and be ballsy enough to misrepresent Twomz meta to defend him/achieve a mislynch then I think that is helpful to town somewhere down the line. I'd personally rather see those sort of relational reactions then hear about meta in any case.

Why in ISO 72 did you say you don’t see the Twomz case then? You’ve stated in your response to me that you didn’t do meta-research yourself.

Gut.

And why did you add the statement ‘which, the way this game is going for me, suggests he’s the only definite scum on the list’?

Joke.

You’ve basically established a fence-sitting position where you say you don’t believe the wagon but leave the door wide open to eventually join the wagon (which you did, BTW) as public opinion shifts.

You really think public opinion shifted towards Twomz? I was on CES and the wagon was larger and still seems to have more support then the Twomz one. Also, though I'll admit I wasn't dynamic and super clear in my opinions at that point my playstyle otherwise has been anything but fence-sitting and my shift to Twomz was much less fence-sitty then my vote on CES.

[LimMePls]

Thor might be the play today. Just sayin.

[Thor665]

I'm certainly the play sometime prior to endgame considering how many on you jacknapes are stuck on me being scum because Thorscum would obviously defend two buddies back to back.

I'd love to see someone put together a case around it first, instead of the awkward confirmation bias that currently comprises the case though.

[LimMePls]

You want a case? How about this:

Why in ISO 72 did you say you don’t see the Twomz case then? You’ve stated in your response to me that you didn’t do meta-research yourself.

Gut.

And why did you add the statement ‘which, the way this game is going for me, suggests he’s the only definite scum on the list’?

Joke.

There's my case. 2 completely terrible answers to two very good questions.

[Thor665]

Okay, and now let's pretend for a moment that those are also the actual answers. I guess I could have made them longer and tried to occlude what was actually the answer, or I could be laconic and let them be what they are.

I did decide against the Twomz case at that point on gut.
And (and this may be a shock) I do tend to make jokes on a regular basis in my posting.

The answers are true, if that makes me scum then change your vote, but frankly I think you're being ridiculous.

[LimMePls]

I guess I could have made them longer and tried to occlude what was actually the answer, or I could be laconic and let them be what they are.

It's not the one word nature of the responses that are terrible, its that they are both terrible answers. The "gut" response is bad because "gut" is a popular fall back position for scum. Gut is impossible to prove or disprove, so you get to take a stance without having to worry about being logically inconsistent. The "joke" one in particular seems interesting to me, as it shows a consciousness of guilt. You realize that your statement is really bad, so you are trying to back peddle it by calling it a joke. What indication was there that the statement was in any way meant as a joke?

[Furry]

Thor might be the play today. Just sayin.

Counterpoint: It actually might be HH

[LimMePls]

BTW, I just looked at the comment in context, and the quote did conveniently leave off an emoticon, which is pretty fair evidence of it being a joke. So ya...

[LimMePls]

Thor might be the play today. Just sayin.

Counterpoint: It actually might be HH

Can you give me a concise argument for this?

[Furry]

Thor might be the play today. Just sayin.

Counterpoint: It actually might be HH

Can you give me a concise argument for this?

Few coaching comments to Feysal during the first day. Late on the first big push of the SO wagon. Top pick if NC is town which I am currently thinking he is (which is why im still vaugely pissed at Thad for not killing him N1 since so many reads hinge on him). Not sure though, im always reckless right after I wake up.

[Thor665]

BTW, I just looked at the comment in context, and the quote did conveniently leave off an emoticon, which is pretty fair evidence of it being a joke. So ya...

You are seriously suggesting that because I lacked putting in an emoticon it makes the comment clearly not a joke? Oh dear gawd that is terrible. Everything about the comment suggests it had a tongue-in-cheek self-depreciating nature to it, which is a basic foundation of making a joke. Please go die in a fire of narrow-minded humor. <---clearly a serious comment, you should call the cops, after all - no smilie.

[LimMePls]

^^You are misreading. I'm saying I went back, and you DID put an emoticon in, thereby STRENGTHENING your argument that it was a joke. MoI's quote of the statement conveniently left off the emoticon.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If one of the scum wants to come in and be ballsy enough to misrepresent Twomz meta to defend him/achieve a mislynch then I think that is helpful to town somewhere down the line. I'd personally rather see those sort of relational reactions then hear about meta in any case.

It only makes sense to misrep as a defense tactic for scum defending scum. Otherwise Furry could actively refute the fake-meta statements. And it would only be helpful for scum-hunting down the line if you went and did the work to determine whether the Meta evidence was fabricated in the case the Furry or ‘nameless defender’ partner flips scum.

Joke.

That may have been the case but I still don’t particulary find the way you softened your ‘stance’ as very Pro-Town.

You really think public opinion shifted towards Twomz?

Granted we have some low levels of activity currently but I think the tide has turned substantively, based mostly on the recent responses by both CES and Twomz.

BTW, I just looked at the comment in context, and the quote did conveniently leave off an emoticon, which is pretty fair evidence of it being a joke. So ya...

I make almost all my responses in Word which strips all emoticons out of quotes. I’m not going to go back and reinsert them. If you find this to be a gross mis-rep so be it. Here’s the question – does it being explicitly a joke modify at all the way it serves to soften his position on Twomz?

[Twomz]

I'm thinking MoI and Thor are town now, based on their responses to the wagon on me (MoI's way of pushing it and Thor's reactions to it).

unvote

HH's reaction to the wagon is fencesitty, and I'm not sure how scummy right now (time will tell).

What surprises me is the lack of followup to the wagon. Either the scum are sitting on someone they think is a better mislynch (I've claimed VT, they are maybe hoping to get another PR), they're lurking (not a lot of talking, so this might be the most likely) or they didn't think they could get enough support for the lynch to go through anyway.

vote: HackerHuck

, I think the best bet at snagging scum today is to go after one of the people sitting on a wagon that had support (even if not from votes). NC had a lot of flak earlier today, although many people seem to be saying he's likely a VI. I think that could make scum want to sit on the beginning of the wagon so that if it picks back up closer to deadline they'll be in a position to say that they were on it the whole time to try to defuse blame on a mislynch.

Of course if NC is scum, then it's unlikely his scumbuddies would sit on his wagon and wait for it to pick back up without trying to push another wagon (Yet another reason for ThAd to hit NC tonight).

And are y'all really gonna try to base a wagon on me on the fact that I have used random.org to determine nightactions in games before and don't care if I tell people that? I've used it as scum and as town (not as 3rd party though, I don't think I've ever been 3rd party /shrug) and even if you say it's bad play style, how is that relevant if I'm a VT?

I don't mind if y'all call me overdefensive or a fensesitter or w/e. Those could appear true to some people, and why should I judge how others perceive my posts? I'm willing to debate the scumminess of those actions and I'm also willing to accept if you decide I'm scum based on them. Lynching, or even wagoning me because of the random.org comment is just as stupid as lynching me cause I happen to live an hour away from Mith (unless he's moved from Tyler or I'm thinking of someone else).

[Twomz]

EBWOP:

VLA for Thanksgiving

although I should have some internet access before I get home on Sunday.

[LimMePls]

And are y'all really gonna try to base a wagon on me on the fact that I have used random.org to determine nightactions in games before and don't care if I tell people that? I've used it as scum and as town (not as 3rd party though, I don't think I've ever been 3rd party /shrug) and even if you say it's bad play style, how is that relevant if I'm a VT?

Can we PLEASE string this scum up?