Succession Mafia (OVER!)

[ReaperCharlie]

What different tone was that? And if I was recruited, wouldn't I make sure to NOT act any differently once I was recruited? Wouldn't that be my capital goal, in fact? And yes I suppose I AM what you might call... the

WIFOMaster®

... heh

But that is beside the point. The point is, GENTLEMEN, that Robo is a recruiter. And you know what we do with those...

[Andrius]

Don't get too far ahead of yourself; I'm still waiting on people.
And if I don't hear back before I slssp then I'll post it and be on my way to dreamland.

[ReaperCharlie]

I'm sick of the whole "nooooo, I'm waiting on people, I can't post my useful stuffz yet d00d!"

Sounds just like Lord Gurgi's cop-out of "hey I can't contribute, everyone else sucks too much!"

:rollseyes:

[Yosarian2]

What do you mean, Yos? His cult is at 4-5 people, and we still need to hit you guys' recruiter.
So we're also forcing you to shoot him tonight, see?
And that's what I'm doing.
We're lynching your recruiter today, so that you are forced to kill tonight.

Nope. If you guys manage to lynch our recruiter today, then removing one member of the opposite cult is no longer a priority for us. At that point, the biggest threat to us would be the cops and roleblockers, and we would start to shoot those. If they happen to be a member of the enemy cult, hey, bonus, but the biggest factor is that a standard mafia group can't win against 2 roleblockers and 2 cops, so you would have to die.

And I'm sure they've done the same calculations; his claim that he would have killed me was most likely just an attempt to get on the town's good side. He probably tried to kill a power role, and he'll probably do the same again tonight if not roleblocked.

[Andrius]

What do you mean, Yos? His cult is at 4-5 people, and we still need to hit you guys' recruiter.
So we're also forcing you to shoot him tonight, see?
And that's what I'm doing.
We're lynching your recruiter today, so that you are forced to kill tonight.

Nope. If you guys manage to lynch our recruiter today, then removing one member of the opposite cult is no longer a priority for us. At that point, the biggest threat to us would be the cops and roleblockers, and we would start to shoot those. If they happen to be a member of the enemy cult, hey, bonus, but the biggest factor is that a standard mafia group can't win against 2 roleblockers and 2 cops, so you would have to die.

And I'm sure they've done the same calculations; his claim that he would have killed me was most likely just an attempt to get on the town's good side. He probably tried to kill a power role, and he'll probably do the same again tonight if not roleblocked.

Don't think I don't know it. Trust me.

As town, I see little chance of us winning, to be honest. This is alot like Comedy of Whims; but different at the same time.

I know, trust me, that if we whack your recruiter, whoever he is, that you guys will be shooting at the town- or whatever is left of it right now besides me.
And I fully expect to die before the end of this game. (I'd actually prefer dying as town to being recruited and winning with one of you guys' factions.)
BUT surely you must realize that, while we are a threat, the other cult is much larger, much more co-ordinated, and therein more lethal.

Imagine, with me, that the last three townies are me, Gurgi, and Darox. We don't get along. Gurgi is pretty much calling me useless at every turn and Darox isn't helping much either. So, as a faction, we're doing pretty badly. lol

But if you DO start shoot Cops and RBs you're going to be hitting cultists; RC is Purple; Chrono and Poro are colored. I'm still town, but I'll probably be dead soon anyway.

I do realize that I have little- or no- control over xvart and his team or you and yours. This isn't Comedy of Whims where I'm an vig and can hold people accountable through my Death Note. I do know, however, that I can still pull people together for a lynch while I'm still here.

And with that, I'm posting my wall.

[Andrius]

Notes:

Day One

NOTE: THERE ARE TWO RECRUITER/RECRUIT PAIRINGS:

ORANGE_RECRUITER/SERAPHIM(M=W)

AND

ERG0/RECRUIT

.

Also: ReaperCharlie and Lord Gurgi are town.

And here is vezok being an asshat. Pretty much claiming role-related info on page one.

Zwet claims he can vig dramonic here.

And I can totally see vezok trying to be town by offering vital insight into the setup and shit. This is what I mean. “Look guys, see what I can do!” Sadly, it’s just a dumbass tell.

Here is where Seraphim first goes out against vezok. Something to note, for sure.

As Friend said in #35, Seraphim’s vote is definitely opportunistic. Though I wonder what Sera would have done as the only recruit in a one-man mafia team.

This, by TheLonging (SS) rubs me the wrong way. But even if he were cult, there’s no way:
1) He would actually know, unless he were the other cult recruiter and attempted to recruit vezok N0
2) He would have been recruited on N0 and NOT shot someone before D3 when SS double-voted

A series of events that I found interesting. Erg0 is voted, Poro defends. But wait, is inHim’s vote actually good, or no? HRM

This is interesting, mainly because he called the only two scumflips we’ve had so far. Though knowing Ani, I doubt he’d make a statement condemning his recruiter on D1, especially like that. Tough call though.

Zwet: Please tell me that I'm not the only one on this forum getting really pissed off at furcolow's playstyle.

OH WE NEED TO GET TOGETHER AND TALK SOMETIME. <3

This, while being town/town, definitely makes RC look like shit. Good thing I investgated him…

Soft defense of me from Ani, but I can see him doing this as either alignment. Leaning town though…

Oh, I was wondering if I caught M=W scum on D1 or not. Glad I called it.

Again, wondering why TheLonging keeps calling for M=W’s lynch. Especially since he can’t KNOW that he’s scum. (proven above)

SOMEONE should have caught Furcolow’s false VT claim here. Naturally, I didn’t because I didn’t know that VTs were “Goons”. /Enforcer

I really love zwet this game. 280; 284. <3 /*ahem*

inHim shines like a star on page 13 (top of the page). Ruling him out as Recruiter. Not Recruit, but still.

Xvart’s play D1 is confusing me. No wonder I saw him as scum (and was right). Calling out Ani for a few scummy things, but says the best thing we need is Gandalf/Friend competing wagons. Odd.

This by Ani just rubs me the wrong way. Look at the wording when he goes to wagon-hop to follow me. And he had called me town earlier, so it was a tad confusing. At first I remember thinking “oh, he’s buddying me” but now… not so sure he’s town.
I magically get TheLonging to wagon-hop too; odd since he sees M=W as SOOOOO CULT.

More badness from Ani.

Calling Erg0 as potential scum-buddy #1 if you (xvart) flip scum, BTW.

Lookie here. lol

Then I get to the part where RC made his shitty as fuck case on me, and see how easily inHim bought it, and I just want to stop reading. GAH. RC, YOU RUINED D1 FOR ME. SO FUCKING BAD. WE WILL TALK AFTER WE ARE DEAD HERE.

Day One is over. I kinda’ slacked off commenting in here and just mentally took notes.

Day Two

NOTE: THERE ARE TWO RECRUITER/RECRUIT PAIRINGS:

ORANGE_RECRUITER/SERAPHIM(M=W)/N1:???

AND

ERG0/RECRUIT/REAPERCHARLIE

.

Also: Lord Gurgi is town.

Ok look at how RC is playing D2. He isn’t useless anymore.
Come to think of it: ooba investigated “neutral” as he shot zwet.

Day Three

NOTE: THERE ARE TWO RECRUITER/RECRUIT PAIRINGS:

ORANGE_RECRUITER/N1:???/N2: ???

AND

ERG0/RECRUIT/REAPERCHARLIE/N2: No Recruit

.

Also: Lord Gurgi is town.

Erg0’s defense of Robo’s claim furthers my tinfoil… but also disproves it… UGH

Gurgi makes a good seup-related comment here, though since the mafia DOES have a kill it isn’t as valid.

I feel better in my read knowing ooba agreed with me on D3.

MASSIVE SLIP FROM XVART. Look closer:

The point is, her shooting herself is irrelevant if she gets recruited tonight (unless she submits her NK immediately and recruiting has no effect on actions already submitted).

“Unless she submits her NK immediately and recruiting has no effect on actions already submitted”. This implies knowledge that xvart revealed later on: that recruiting in instantaneous. Xvart is confirmed scum on D3. (Not like I did’nt know/suspect that yet, but yeah.)

Chrono’s top 3 suspects plus some make me think he’s not yet recruited.

Day Four

NOTE: THERE ARE TWO RECRUITER/RECRUIT PAIRINGS:

ORANGE_RECRUITER/N1:???/N2: ???/N3: ???

AND

ERG0/RECRUIT/REAPERCHARLIE/N2: Kill M=W/N3: ???

.

Erg0 immediately voting Yos after my claim confirms that they aren’t scum together.

---

We know this:

Start of Game: Purple Recruiter (Erg0/Quag), Orange Recruiter
During N0: Recruiters gained their people. Namely, Seraphim for Orange.
D1: I get my read of RC as Town. Therefore, he isn't N0 Cultist. And not recruiter, I guess.
4 scum on D1. Pairs of two. Watch Erg0 and Seraphim.

N1: +2 Recruits
So D2: 2 3-man teams

Tinfoil

Tinfoil #1: Seraphim replaced out due to being recruited by vezokpiraka

Self-explanatory. And he hates cults, due to AGM and me in Comedy of Whims.

Tinfoil #3: ReaperCharlie is Purple Scum.

Most likely recruited N1 by Erg0.
a) It is also interesting that Me=Weird is killed N2, the night after RC could have been recruited. And RC just copies my investigation results twice. No big.
b) RC and xvart lead multiple wagons on D4, all as a distraction away from Erg0: ooba, gandalf.
c) I publically announced a N0 Investigation of him D1. Who better to recruit than someone who was just declared town?
d) Pushed for a Yosarian2 lynch all of D2

Tinfoil #4: Orange Cult had 3 members on D2, including Yosarian2.

a) Confirmed by Yos here: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 8#p2596448

Inference #1: zwetschenwasser killed dramonic N1

a) ISO zwet. 'Nuff said.
b) Gaining another recruit is much more important to the cult than killong one lowly bodyguard.

Tinfoil Theory #7: Seraphim was Orange's N0 recruit. xvart was Purple's N0 recruit.

xvart confirmed he was scum by D3. And Purple did not recruit N2, as they killed Me=Weird. So that leaves N0 and N1. And N1 is for RC, so it HAD TO BE N0.

Tinfoil #8: ReaperCharlie was Purple's N1 recruit. Yosarian2 was Orange's N1 recruit.

a) http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 2#p2530862 shows xvart with RC and a vote on M=W
b) http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3#p2595873 Yos confirms he and M=W were together on D2.

Tinfoil Theory #9: Purple killed Me=Weird N2. Orange recruited someone.

D'oh. No Loose Cannon, if town, would shoot M=W and NOT claim it.
Orange wouldn't kill its own member.
Purple did it.

Oh, I remember now!

Tinfoil #6: You cannot use a personal PR and the nightly kill if you are cult.

Which would have explained RC's copy-result on N2, since he killed M=W and xvart bodyguarded Erg0.
But it isn't the case, so. Meh.

So we know that at DayBreak of D3:
Gurgi is town.
xvart, RC, Yosarian2 are all scum.
Both scumgroups have 3 members in them, since Purple shot N2 and Orange lost and gained a member.

If singersigner is recruited, she was recruited N2 into Orange, when she still had her shot left, AFTER she claimed.
Chronopie and Poro are not both in Purple. One can.

If you forced me to dump all living players into alignments:

TOWN:
Andy
Gurgi
Darox

ORANGE:
Yosarian2
singersigner
Porochaz

PURPLE:
xvart
ReaperCharlie
Chronopie

Which leaves, of course, Robo and Flameaxe.
Let's just say that Chrono and Poro were recruited N3, to make things easy.

xvart claimed Purple kill on Yosarian N5. -1
Let's say they cross-recruited once. -1
That ALONE sets them back one whole night, giving the town the two extra slots, pushing us from
WORST CASE 5:5:1 to Meh 4:4:3

Things that don't matter:
-RC claiming Enforcer.

I also looked into Erg0's reaction to Robo's claim, to see if they were given the same fakeclaim. But if they were, purple would have shot Robo before then.


You know, maybe Poro is town. But it doesn't matter. We have a head start:
-Two candidates for Recruiter
-enough scum from both sides to have some wiggle-room

SO.
What do we need to do now?

Heh.

Decide whether Flameaxe's brain or Robo's brain is going to get splattered on the wall.

And I'll get around to making another massive comparison case on them, so don't go spraying their brains on the wall quite yet.

[Andrius]

If you couldn't tell my note-taking kinda' fell away on the side as time went on.

[Flameaxe]

Now that we have that out of the way...Are you going to give us your preference on the lynch? Or is that AFTER this comparison case.

[Andrius]

They'll happen at the same time.

[ReaperCharlie]

I disagree with clearing Gurgi and Darox as town.

And even if they WERE at one point town, you still can't deny that Darox was 100% prime beef for recruiting last night, and that Gurgi was the same, but on the night after HE was investigated to be town.

Why would the cults try to recruit someone who might already be recruited? THEY WOULDN'T. They'd shoot for a known townie.

And if this cult recruiting mechanism works so that they're brought into the cult immediately, then both cults would probably try to recruit them ASAP at the beginning of the night. But then, WIFOM about whether or not the other cult is trying to do the same.. still, I think there's a heavy, heavy chance that one or both of Gurgi/Darox is recruited.

P.S. Hurry up, Andrius. I am sick of waiting, and stuff.

[Chronopie]

I disagree with clearing Gurgi and Darox as town.

This. Bloody well This. Gurgi should not be cleared.

[Yosarian2]

Don't think I don't know it. Trust me.

As town, I see little chance of us winning, to be honest. This is alot like Comedy of Whims; but different at the same time.

I know, trust me, that if we whack your recruiter, whoever he is, that you guys will be shooting at the town- or whatever is left of it right now besides me.
And I fully expect to die before the end of this game. (I'd actually prefer dying as town to being recruited and winning with one of you guys' factions.)
BUT surely you must realize that, while we are a threat, the other cult is much larger, much more co-ordinated, and therein more lethal.

Imagine, with me, that the last three townies are me, Gurgi, and Darox. We don't get along. Gurgi is pretty much calling me useless at every turn and Darox isn't helping much either. So, as a faction, we're doing pretty badly. lol

But if you DO start shoot Cops and RBs you're going to be hitting cultists; RC is Purple; Chrono and Poro are colored. I'm still town, but I'll probably be dead soon anyway.

I do realize that I have little- or no- control over xvart and his team or you and yours. This isn't Comedy of Whims where I'm an vig and can hold people accountable through my Death Note. I do know, however, that I can still pull people together for a lynch while I'm still here.

Right now, I think town's best chance is this.

Today, town lynches xvart, or someone from his team. In that case, xvart's team would have to try to kill our recruiter tonight; they wouldn't have any choice, clearly. Meanwhile, we'd attempt to recruit one more time, but xvart's cult is still large enough that there's at least 50/50 chance we'll miss and target someone already recruited.

So, if you take that route, then we lynch xvart today, making his cult smaller; his group would have to try to kill our recruiter tonight, which he has decent odds of suceeding at, and our cult has a high chance of failing to recruit. There's a significant chance that that puts town in a better place tommorow then they are today, no matter how large or small the town is at this point. I think it's probably your best bet here.

[Darox]

I like this Yosarian much better than the previous one.

He's still just as useless to town, but you've got to admire someone who can sell snake oil with goddamn grin on his face.

[ReaperCharlie]

My eyes want to fall out cause I'm so tired.

[ReaperCharlie]

Also, Flay: How did you make it so the 'user' area of the post (i.e. not the 'post') part, is a fixed width and not a percentage of the page? Every time I tried that, it totally screwed up the 'online' banner. Or is that why you disabled the 'online' banners. lol

<--- this part.

[xvart]

Right now, I think town's best chance is this.

Today, town lynches xvart, or someone from his team. In that case, xvart's team would have to try to kill our recruiter tonight; they wouldn't have any choice, clearly. Meanwhile, we'd attempt to recruit one more time, but xvart's cult is still large enough that there's at least 50/50 chance we'll miss and target someone already recruited.

So, if you take that route, then we lynch xvart today, making his cult smaller; his group would have to try to kill our recruiter tonight, which he has decent odds of suceeding at, and our cult has a high chance of failing to recruit. There's a significant chance that that puts town in a better place tommorow then they are today, no matter how large or small the town is at this point. I think it's probably your best bet here.[/quote]Yos2 - I give you props. I really can't tell if you are being serious with your whole "woe is us" unsuccessful recruiting bit or if you really are worried that you guys are about to go down. Just a question, if you knew you weren't going to win would you rather my team win or the town?

xvart.

[xvart]

EBWOP: That was a pretty terribly posted post. I forgot to copy a post from another tab and then I totally jacked Yos2's quote. Reposted for completeness and formatting:

MASSIVE SLIP FROM XVART. Look closer:

The point is, her shooting herself is irrelevant if she gets recruited tonight (unless she submits her NK immediately and recruiting has no effect on actions already submitted).

“Unless she submits her NK immediately and recruiting has no effect on actions already submitted”. This implies knowledge that xvart revealed later on: that recruiting in instantaneous. Xvart is confirmed scum on D3. (Not like I did’nt know/suspect that yet, but yeah.)

Yeah, I wanted desperately to have singer use her ability because I did not think we would get to recruiting singer before the other Cult to get the extra shot. I thought I used some more ambiguously stupid language like "if the mechanics function like this then blah blah blah..." I just didn't have faith in my recruiter to be around right when the night closed.

Right now, I think town's best chance is this.

Today, town lynches xvart, or someone from his team. In that case, xvart's team would have to try to kill our recruiter tonight; they wouldn't have any choice, clearly. Meanwhile, we'd attempt to recruit one more time, but xvart's cult is still large enough that there's at least 50/50 chance we'll miss and target someone already recruited.

So, if you take that route, then we lynch xvart today, making his cult smaller; his group would have to try to kill our recruiter tonight, which he has decent odds of suceeding at, and our cult has a high chance of failing to recruit. There's a significant chance that that puts town in a better place tommorow then they are today, no matter how large or small the town is at this point. I think it's probably your best bet here.

Yos2 - I give you props. I really can't tell if you are being serious with your whole "woe is us" unsuccessful recruiting bit or if you really are worried that you guys are about to go down. Just a question, if you knew you weren't going to win would you rather my team win or the town?

xvart.

[Andrius]

Just a question, if you knew you weren't going to win would you rather my team win or the town?

Valid question, and I'm curious. I've played as scum in 2-scum groups, and prefered the town to win after my team got the axe. Namely because I had the other scum pegged.

I'll think over xvart and Yos. Because Yos has a good point if we're not onto the recruiter at all, but if we are then xvart totally called it.
But town is pretty much in a rut anyway...

[ReaperCharlie]

*goes into hibernation until Andy makes his choice*

[Robocopter87]

But that is beside the point. The point is, GENTLEMEN, that Robo is a recruiter. And you know what we do with those...

You have done this every single day so far.

You are so sure. So stubborn. That you are right, when in reality you have been wrong every single time this game. You have advocated the lynch of multiple people and they are dead now and they flipped town or recruit. But never recruiter. Quagmire did. But you never advocated his lynch

as badly

as the others.

You are leading the town to a loss. What you are saying doesn't make any sense.

RC, do you think Andrius is town?

[Flameaxe]

My Charlie read aside...I'm not really sure I agree with calling someone wrong simply because they we're wrong before. If you think he isn't making any sense, show him how he isn't, don't just say "ur rong, lol".

[Lord Gurgi]

Let's just lynch someone already.

[Flameaxe]

Let's just lynch someone already.

And do you have a preference as to who?

[Yosarian2]

He's still just as useless to town, but you've got to admire someone who can sell snake oil with goddamn grin on his face.

The thing is, I'm actually correct. Lynching xvart is the best possible move for the town here.

Of course, it also helps my side as well, but any move anyone makes at this point is going to hurt one faction and help the other two.

Just a question, if you knew you weren't going to win would you rather my team win or the town?

I actually haven't really considered that at this point. I don't usually think in those terms at all unless it's completely hopeless.

[ReaperCharlie]

RC, do you think Andrius is town?

I think it depends heavily on your flip. I don't think he's purple scum though.