The Return to Liten (Game Over)

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #975 (ISO) » Tue Dec 07, 2010 3:58 pm

Welcome NoPoint.

I’d like to see your thoughts on that game before I decide whether Slaxx’s parting shot was worthy of a vote.

I don’t have enough time right now but I’ll be redoing my Day 1 VC data for recent flips and reanalyzing along with creating a Day 3 VC data set.

On the Neighbor Claim

– I generally don’t see the purpose of having ApCake’s QT buddy come forward if they were not alignment confirmed to each other and there aren’t breadcrumbs / play that supports the claim. Given the non-standard naming involved in the roles we are seeing I’m not sure if ApCakes role functioned as a Neighbor or a Mason.

CES wrote:What does that achieve beyond giving scum the knowledge that a certain someone almost certainly has no useful powers?

Would you consider Mod confirmed Town alignment to not be a useful power, assuming ApCakes was in fact a Mason? Especially the fact that it would add a potential level of WIFOM for the Mafia to deal with - PR hunt for potential dangerous Town roles that may or may not still exist or go for a 100% confirmed Town player.

Hacker wrote:I was wondering if Camn would be acting as scummy as Nero and it looks like I'm right.

If you feel camn is scummy why aren’t you voting for her as opposed to throwing rhetoric around?

Also you didn’t bother to answer the following question I asked before the Day ended yesterday. Get on it–

MoI wrote:2. Please explain how his case ‘made sense’. He dropped this issue the minute that I questioned him about the lack of support and the fact that he stripped all context out of my posts.

camn · Post Post #976 (ISO) » Tue Dec 07, 2010 5:04 pm

HackerHuck wrote:I was wondering if Camn would be acting as scummy as Nero and it looks like I'm right.

Alamaster - you never said why Slaxx was scummy and more than half of your posts have some reference to him being scum. Can you elaborate?

YOU didnt say why I am 'scummy' and then scolded someone else for doing the same.

Can YOU elaborate?

And I persist in my position that I TOTALLY SEE THE VALUE (esPECIALLY if they are unconfirmed)... but I will leave it in the hands of the player or players involved.

HackerHuck · Post Post #977 (ISO) » Tue Dec 07, 2010 7:14 pm

camn wrote:
HackerHuck wrote:I was wondering if Camn would be acting as scummy as Nero and it looks like I'm right.

Alamaster - you never said why Slaxx was scummy and more than half of your posts have some reference to him being scum. Can you elaborate?
YOU didnt say why I am 'scummy' and then scolded someone else for doing the same.

Can YOU elaborate?

And I persist in my position that I TOTALLY SEE THE VALUE (esPECIALLY if they are unconfirmed)... but I will leave it in the hands of the player or players involved.

...and you're not explaining why there is value. Since neighbour is used specifically to mean unconfirmed, I'm not seeing how it could help. The most obvious reason for not claiming is that scum hunting for power roles have one less person to go after. I actually have explained why I felt that Nero was scum, but I'd like you to point out to me anywhere Alamaster gives a reason for his persistent sniping at Slaxx.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Hacker wrote:I was wondering if Camn would be acting as scummy as Nero and it looks like I'm right.
If you feel camn is scummy why aren’t you voting for her as opposed to throwing rhetoric around?

My case on Nero didn't going anywhere yesterday and I'm certainly not going to park my vote on Camn without having something more to try and convince people with. I don't see you doing anything different.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:Also you didn’t bother to answer the following question I asked before the Day ended yesterday. Get on it–

MoI wrote:2. Please explain how his case ‘made sense’. He dropped this issue the minute that I questioned him about the lack of support and the fact that he stripped all context out of my posts.

I'm amazed that you have the gall to ask that question twice. APC didn't drop anything. He continued to suspect you, but he was MIA most of that day. You actually didn't question him about it, in fact you just waved your hand and tried to make it go away. He presented evidence that showed you were hopping on the hot wagons and your response was 'it was taken out of context'. I would say that the burden would be on you to show what the context was that explained why you weren't just hopping on the leading wagons.

Cogito Ergo Sum · Post Post #978 (ISO) » Tue Dec 07, 2010 11:00 pm

MoI wrote:Would you consider Mod confirmed Town alignment to not be a useful power, assuming ApCakes was in fact a Mason?

Sure, but that assumption is wholly unjustified.

camn wrote:And I persist in my position that I TOTALLY SEE THE VALUE (esPECIALLY if they are unconfirmed)

Then what's holding you back from making an argument to that effect?

ThAdmiral · Post Post #979 (ISO) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 1:02 am

Well I guess I am suspicious of ces and hackerhuck by process of elimination. Will iso and see what I come up with.

camn · Post Post #980 (ISO) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 3:08 am

Explaining it would ruin them value!

God I wish SPYREX were still alive. He understands.

SaintKerrigan · Post Post #981 (ISO) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 3:12 am

nopointinactingup has requested replacement due to sudden real-life issues that prevent him from being on the site. Searching for a replacement now...

Thor665 · Post Post #982 (ISO) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 6:21 am

I'm going to apologize for how flighty I've been this game, ever since my failure Day 1/2 I've sort of felt like a lump on a log. This weekend I am doing a fresh skim of the topic and will have some fresh thoughts and vow to hold myself to regular posting and random bellowings of my beliefs.

Quick thought: with two scum down shouldn't we hold ThAdmiral to not shooting for the moment? Let's make scum whittle us down the hard/slow way which will increase the number of votes we force them to survive through.

AlmasterGM · Post Post #983 (ISO) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 7:19 am

Ok I could've SWORN I made a case on Slaxx, but I went back and looked and it turns out I did not. I did, however, have many interactions with him and I kept thinking everrrry time, "wow this guy is scummy."

I'll think about it more after we get a replacement and see what he says.

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #984 (ISO) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 4:01 pm

CES wrote: Sure, but that assumption is wholly unjustified.

I want to be clear – I’m asking you to answer the question as to a confirmed alignment Town player ‘as if’ we knew it was the case. The only person who knows either way is likely the other Neighbor.

I’m asking – if the Neighbor is in fact Mod-confirmed would you not consider that a useful power when publicly claimed and thus something that could tactically help Town?

Thor wrote:Quick thought: with two scum down shouldn't we hold ThAdmiral to not shooting for the moment? Let's make scum whittle us down the hard/slow way which will increase the number of votes we force them to survive through.

Solid point here Thor. Thanks for joining the party! Depending on the initial number of scum we are probably closing in on MYLO / LYLO with only 9 of us left.

Admiral

– Would you consider holding fire going forward to maximize the number of lynches at Town’s disposal?

Hacker wrote:...and you're not explaining why there is value. Since neighbour is used specifically to mean unconfirmed, I'm not seeing how it could help.

Since when in this game does the fact that ApCakes flipped Neighbor outright mean that Mod is using the stock definition? Because I’d love to see said stock definitions of Medic, Scout and Infltrator. You are assuming too much here.

Hacker wrote:I'm amazed that you have the gall to ask that question twice. APC didn't drop anything. He continued to suspect you, but he was MIA most of that day.
You actually didn't question him about it, in fact you just waved your hand and tried to make it go away.
He presented evidence that showed you were hopping on the hot wagons and your response was 'it was taken out of context'. I would say that the burden would be on you to show what the context was that explained why you weren't just hopping on the leading wagons.

Bullshit. ApCakes dropped it like a hot coal. He presented his list of votes, taken completely without any surrounding context (the post they came from that shed light on the motivation for voting as such), and tried to spin it as that was damning evidence. If your standard of proof allows someone to HORRIBLY quote-mine to then we have fundamental issues about building cases. What ApCakes did was akin to cherry-picking words from a large post and cobbling them together to say "I am scum" and then claiming it is evidence.

As for the bolded section let me refresh your memory –

MOI wrote:
ApCakes wrote:ut D1, MOI hops on whatever seems to be the most popular wagon, while also placing his vote onto SO 3 seperate times over the course of the day.

I’ll not even address the fact that you stripped each vote completely out of context. Please demonstrate how any of my votes was to join the most popular wagon.

ApCakes wrote:For some reason, MOI seems rather certain about SO flipping scum. Only in the last line of his post did he offer a short "if SO is town" scenario.
I love how you ignore the if in the phrase ‘if Square does flip scum’ and then attempt to assert that the sentence that you snipped about Nero being my top suspect if SO is Town means I was certain of Square’s flip.

I feel this whole ‘case’ is more motivated by my statement that you are a valid and good Vig target than actual scum-hunting.

So firstly I clearly asked him to support his assertion that I was hopping to popular wagons. And then I demonstrated that the second quote was selectively chosen to appear damning while not being an accurate representation.

Did ApCakes ever make any sort of response to this? Nope. He folded up his tent and NEVER revisited his ‘case’.

In other news – INCOMING RAW DATA for VC Analysis

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #985 (ISO) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 4:21 pm

Raw Data Day 1 VC

Once again Admiral is listed in blue because he can’t be Mafia. Slaxx hasn’t been replaced yet so stays in the VCs as is for now.

Spoiler: TheData

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #986 (ISO) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 4:29 pm

Raw Data Day 3 VC

Once again Admiral is listed in blue because he can’t be Mafia. Slaxx hasn’t been replaced yet so stays in the VCs as is for now.

Spoiler: TheData

camn · Post Post #987 (ISO) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 5:32 pm

VOTE: HackerHuck

God I love VC analysis.

Some scum jumped on that Square Obscure wagon... had to of happened. had to.
Willing to go for CES, too. Same reason

Thor665 · Post Post #988 (ISO) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 6:53 pm

@camn - what do you see as the incriminating aspect of the VC analysis that screams that HH is scum?

Furry · Post Post #989 (ISO) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 7:17 pm

Thor665 wrote:@camn - what do you see as the incriminating aspect of the VC analysis that screams that HH is scum?

Lots

Vote HH

Thor665 · Post Post #990 (ISO) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 7:40 pm

I can't tell if you're being a twit or I'm being a dense idiot again. I'd be pretty content to accept the latter if you could bother actually expanding on that answer.

SaintKerrigan · Post Post #991 (ISO) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 11:54 pm

I will try to get a vote count up sometime today. Whether or not flavor is included depends on my mental state (pre-finals week has been hell for me; can't wait for actual finals)...

ThAdmiral · Post Post #992 (ISO) » Thu Dec 09, 2010 1:05 am

MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Admiral
– Would you consider holding fire going forward to maximize the number of lynches at Town’s disposal?

Yes. I am happy to hold off until lylo if town thinks it best.

HackerHuck · Post Post #993 (ISO) » Thu Dec 09, 2010 7:02 am

Thor665 wrote:@camn - what do you see as the incriminating aspect of the VC analysis that screams that HH is scum?

I'm guessing that it's this...

MagnaofIllusion wrote:...
Vote Count 3.2
(2) Camn:
apathyplusCUPCAKES
, HackerHuck
Vote Count 3.3
(2) Camn:
apathyplusCUPCAKES
, HackerHuck
Vote Count 3.4
(2) Camn:
apathyplusCUPCAKES
, HackerHuck
Vote Count 3.5
(1) camn: HackerHuck
Final Day 3 Vote Count
(1) camn: HackerHuck

SaintKerrigan · Post Post #994 (ISO) » Thu Dec 09, 2010 9:24 am

chesskid3 replaces nopointinactingup, effective immediately.

I will get a vote count up for you soon, but flavor will have to wait until later (school obligations).

SaintKerrigan · Post Post #995 (ISO) » Thu Dec 09, 2010 9:31 am

Mt. Ivanova
Non-colonized Sector 1, UTP Planet Liten, Tynnfred System
December 5th, 2486 SC (Day 4, Month 15 LC)
0212 hours SST (2621 hours LLT3)

Jezzy trudged across the snow-crested rock, eyes focused on her scouts, Black Cat and Chuck, fifty meters ahead of her and the main group. They were barely visible in their combat uniforms, now colored to more closely match the bleak, monochromatic color palette of Mt. Ivanova. To her left, seven meters away, Mt. Ivanova continued to reach for the jet-black, star-studded sky; to her right, only about fifteen meters distant, lay the cliff edge, and below that, naught but air for at least a kilometer. The top of the Arkon jammer, a thick collection of needle-like spires, was just visible above the walls of rock on the left...

Suddenly, both Black Cat and Chuck froze and smoothly flattened themselves on the ground. Jezzy halted at once, and held her right hand up in a fist, signaling the other Megiddos to wait. Minutes ticked by, and neither Black Cat nor Chuck moved from their prone position. Silence rested heavily on the group, engulfing their bodies in a sea of water that no one dared disturb.

After a period that felt like hours, Black Cat slowly rose and began jogging lightly back towards Jezzy. It didn't take her long to arrive, and she'd hardly broken a sweat.

"We've located the jammer grounds, about half a kilometer beyond Chuck's positon and down some stepped plateaus," Black Cat reported. "But something strange is going on, Lieutenant."

"What?" Jezzy asked. "I'd be surprised if they weren't battle-ready, what with the explosion and--"

"No, it's not that at all. They're already engaged in combat with another party."

Once again, silence reigned supreme.

"Another party?" Dylan echoed. "You mean those fuckers are fighting with each other?"

Black Cat shrugged. "I don't know. Whatever's going on is happening on the other side of the jammer."

"I wonder if it's got anything to do with that rumble we heard earlier," Bill suggested.

"It doesn't matter," Jezzy said firmly. "This gives us a tactical advantage, and we need to exploit it. We're upping the pace to double-time. Black Cat, you and Chuck continue to scout ahead for us. When you get close enough, find sniping positions and cover the rest of us as we breach the jammer, as per the plan."

"With the Arkons being otherwise distracted, is the plan changing at all?" Kestrel inquired.

"Negative."

"Roger that. Just checking."

"Any more questions?" There were none. "Black Cat, get back to Chuck, and the rest of us will wait on the two of you."

Jezzy watched and waited as Black Cat made her way back to Chuck's position. The two scouts took out rappel guns, shot the grip through the snow and into the rock, and disappeared from sight.

"That's going to take awhile," Pal groaned.

"Zip it!" Jezzy hissed. "Everyone move out, double time!"

Vote Count 4.1

(2) HackerHuck: camn, Furry
(1) Furry: Cogito Ergo Sum
(1) chesskid3: AlmasterGM

Not Voting: chesskid3, MagnaofIllusion, ThAdmiral, HackerHuck, Thor665

With nine people alive, it takes five votes to lynch.
The deadline is Tuesday, December 21st, 2010 at 9:00 a.m. CST.

chesskid3 · Post Post #996 (ISO) » Thu Dec 09, 2010 9:40 am

Hiya. I'll read this tomorrow. Any pressing issues, etc etc?

Cogito Ergo Sum · Post Post #997 (ISO) » Thu Dec 09, 2010 11:33 am

P.S. We shouldn't stop vigging or we'll never get to lynching the good players like Furry and MoI.

camn · Post Post #998 (ISO) » Thu Dec 09, 2010 1:50 pm

if Furry and MOI are scum, then they have already won this game. They are as town as the day is long.

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #999 (ISO) » Thu Dec 09, 2010 3:48 pm

Review of Day 1 Data

(based on my initial analysis at ISO 33)

Point 1

– The make-up of the early Dana wagon

(6) danakillsu: Thor665, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Square Obscure

,

LunchMePls

,

apathyplusCUPCAKES

,

Untrod Tripod

My initial interest was on the players who held this wagon the longest. Now with further flips Thor and CES are the only players of unknown alignment on the wagon. Given they were early on the wagon with Square I doubt all three would be scum together and commit to wagonning in that manner.

Conclusion – Thor and CES are not Mafia together.

Point 2

– SquareOb versus Untrod Wagons

(4)

Square Obscure

: Furry, AlmasterGM,

LunchMePlz

, MagnaofIllusion
(4)

Untrod Tripod

:

Spyrex

, HackerHuck, Thor665,

danakillsu

Thor and HackerHuck are the remaining players of unknown alignment who were part of the early wagon on Untrod when it was dueling with SquareOb.

(6) Untrod Tripod

:

Spyrex

, HackerHuck, Thor665,

danakillsu

, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Nikanor

Square Obscure

(2): AlmasterGM,

LunchMePlz

CES is the vote that tips the scales towards Untrod over SquareOb

(8) Untrod Tripod

:

Spyrex

, HackerHuck, Thor665,

danakillsu

, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Nikanor

, MagnaofIllusion,

Square Obscure

(3) Square Obscure

: MathblasterGM,

LunchMePlz

,

Untrod Tripod

SquareOb wasn’t afraid at all to jump on Untrod’s wagon late. This indicates that Hacker or Thor are more likely to be scum-mates with SquareOb since they were early on the wagon.

(10) Square Obscure

: AlmasterGM,

LynchMePlz

,

Untrod Tripod

, Slaxx,

ThAdmiral

, MagnaofIllusion, HackerHuck,

Twomz

, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Nikanor

(3) Untrod Tripod

:

danakillsu

,

Square Obscure

, Thor665

Players of unknown alignment on the ending SquareOb wagon who had showed no previous interest – Slaxx (Chesskid), Hacker and CES.

Again, Thor’s position at the end of the day on Untrod with SquareOb greatly reduces the chances he’s scum.

Point 3 –

Those who stayed away from the two major wagons on Day 1 : camn (on neither at any point in the day) and Furry (who was on Square early but moved off.

Revised Top Tier Candidates based on Day 1 – CES and HackerHuck.