Last Will Mafia II (Over)

[Battousai]

So neutral scum meant you didn't have anything against Kunk (or Amished, for that matter)? I thought they were players you had a semi-scum read on but not as scummy as KMD. I phrased those questions badly, though; my question about KMD should have been independent from the one about Kunk. I'll rephrase: I want to know why you included Kunk as leaning scum.

When I made the list, as I've stated previously, I had a small group of town, and a very small group of scum. That meant I had a large group of neutrals. That didn't seem to give much information, so I split the neutrals up (as I didn't want to show that someone, like kunk, is just as scummy as someone who is leaning town. So to sum it up, neutral scum and neutral town are closer to the neutral than to the town/scum spectrum.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

kunkstar7 (4) - nachomamma8, holycon, esuriospiritus, Battousai

Not Voting (19) - Locke Lamora, Rhinox, kunkstar7, Ythan

With 23 votes in play it takes 12 to lynch
Deadline is Thursday the 2nd, 10PM PST

[Nachomamma8]

Not voting yet because my two votes would put ythan in hammer range.

Why does that matter?

When I made the list, as I've stated previously, I had a small group of town, and a very small group of scum. That meant I had a large group of neutrals. That didn't seem to give much information, so I split the neutrals up (as I didn't want to show that someone, like kunk, is just as scummy as someone who is leaning town. So to sum it up, neutral scum and neutral town are closer to the neutral than to the town/scum spectrum.

But what made you think he was scum? Why was he neutral scum instead of neutral town?

[Rhinox]

Not voting yet because my two votes would put ythan in hammer range.

Why does that matter?

because I still think ythan is scum and don't want him to hammer if there is still conversation to be had

[Nachomamma8]

Oh, I see. I misunderstood your post :/

[Ythan]

It looks like a deadline and night passed before I was able to post. I'm going to be lynched. Just let me address some things first.

HOLY SHIT YES it's still the same day

well back what i want to know yathan why you are so hostile to everyone

Because that's how I want to post. Your questioning is irrelevant fluff. Me being mean has zero relation to my role.

[Ythan]

Okay so Kunk is almostdef-scum and we can lynch him now and I can do my thing tonight.

[Locke Lamora]

Alright, let's get this done. Looks like Ythan is ready to use his ability, you all know what to do if I'm dead and he's not tomorrow.

Vote: kunkstar7

It's pretty cool hammering from L-8.

[LlamaFluff]

End of Day Vote Count

kunkstar7 (14) - nachomamma8, holycon, esuriospiritus, Battousai, Locke Lamora

Not Voting (9) - Ythan, rhinox, kunkstar7

You lynch kunkstar in a very flavorless manor

kunkstar7 - One Shot Columbian Day Vig - Lynched Day Eight

His votes move on to nachomamma8, who now has two votes

Deadline for night eight is Sunday, 11PM, PST

[LlamaFluff]

You all wake up to another death, that of one who always liked being the center of attention.

Ythan - Two Shot Lightning Rod - Died Night Eight

His votes move to Rhinox, who now has eight votes.

With 23 votes in play it takes 12 to lynch
Deadline for day nine is Sunday December 19th, 10PM PST

[Ythan]

I do not! Go town!

[Locke Lamora]

Thanks, Ythan.

So even if there are 3 scum left and Rhinox is scum, we've still got enough votes to keep this alive. Think I'll be rereading everyone today.

Now that I've experienced how ridiculous having ten votes (and deciding who to give them to) is, I've realised that my point about Chrono handing off votes to Ythan was pretty stupid. With most of the votes concentrated on two players, scum are going to care even less about who they give them to as long as they can convince the right people that they're town, so I'm going to focus on reading back rather than trying to work out whether Kunk was trying to implicate Nacho or WIFOM us out of suspecting him.

Batt, care to explain why your first instinct on seeing the successful vig kill was 'Kunk didn't kill Holy, so he must be scum', not 'Kunk claimed VT, so he must be scum'?

[Nachomamma8]

I'm going to reread esurio and Batt.
Rhinox has a sexy new avatar.

[Rhinox]

Alright, so Locke is almost certainly town. With ythan town, my suspicions on esurio reduce greatly, while its getting harder to ignore the reasons to lynch batt. And then holy and nacho, which one bussed chrono, etc.

My reads on this game have pretty much been flipped upside down recently, so I'm going to need to spend some time rereading and reevaluating the remaining players.

[Battousai]

I'll get to it in a bit, but we should go back and look at the lynch wagons and update it based on new flips.

[Nachomamma8]

I doubt esurio is town.
Batt, responses to my ISO #73 and ISO #74.

[holycon]

I doubt esurio is town.
Batt, responses to my ISO #73 and ISO #74.

Why do you think that esurio isn't town?

[Battousai]

For Nacho-

ISO73:

I came in strong against Ythan- I hadn't read yet, only saw the double claim, and jumped on Ythan because everyone else was on Richard/spouting Ythan must be town. My "assault" for the rest of the day was trying to slow the quick wagon on Richard down in order to get more information for the day and it wasn't proven that Richard was beyond a doubt scum at that point (Ythan could have been lying/third party RB). I "distanced from the wagon" I didn't think Richard was scum, but the quick wagon on him earlier was scummy and his lynch would have given us information. ---- To sum up that paragraph- I've been vocally against Ythan, while my votes weren't. I could see that as me trying to distance myself from him, but you can't really hold that against me UNTIL Ythan flips as the basis of the argument is derived from BOTH me and Ythan are scum.

Second paragragh- Plum suspicioun was based on the fact Plum/KMD were basically the same player. Everything Plum said KMD supported. Everything KMD said, Plum supported just about. This was the strongest relationship in the game in my mind. I was on KMD that day and focused on him (tangently focused on Plum for her defense of him and the way she waved me off as scum for attacking him) and therefore was left near the end of the day with the option of a Plum or Chrono lynch. Who should I want lynched, the person who walks hand in hand with the scummiest player in the game, or the person I felt was neutral scum? I went with Plum, independently scummy based on Raider's vote hopping D1, and her buddying to a player that should be unknown alignment to her.

To the fact that it was unlikely to wagon 2 scum players at the end of day when we previously had 4 town mislynches... Statistically, as more town players die, the more likely scum will be lynched. With 8 down (I think 8 down at the time) and with an estimated 6 scum, the chances of wagoning scum is 40% (6/15). For the second, thats 35.7% (5/14). But that doesn't account for the human element.

KMD hate- I know this is WIFOM, but it at least makes sense. Since there were like 0 successful doc protects, wouldn't it have been more likely for scum to just NK KMD than try and get him lynched?

I think I've answered this exact post 3 times now. I don't know what you want extra. Your 74, is basically a rehash of 73 in response to someone defending some of the actions I made, and not really addressed at me.

[Battousai]

from KMD, editted to show flips/name changes and I editted out flipped town from his notes-

Shattered Viewpoint

(12) -

Ythan

,

EGL

, esurio,

SSBF

,

kunkstar

,

Charlie

,

kmd

, holycon,

towmz

,

fishy

, Batt,

millar13

Plum

(3) -

Jahudo

, nachomamma8,

Michel

RichardGHP

(3) -

Xite

,

Plum

,

Chrono

SSBF

(1) -

Shattered Viewpoint

Chrono

(1) - rhinox

Michel (1) - Diacria

Not Voting (2) - Locke,

RichardGHP

On the Shattered wagon: Esurio, Amished, holy, Batt
On the Richard mini-wagon: Chro
Wasted vote or no vote: Rhinox, Locke

Nacho were on a wagon that was large at one point. Shattered flipped town, so it's not a counter wagon to a scumbuddy. They get town points. I have massive town reads on holy, so they're fine. Esurio are early enough on the wagon that it's fine.

ScumSet TM - {Amished, Batt} , {

Chro

}, {Rhinox, Locke}
---In theory, each ScumSet TM should include at least one scum.

Day 2:

EGL

(9) - nachomamma8,

jahudo

, Locke Lamora,

Charlie

,

KMD

,

RichardGHP

, rhinox, esurio

RichardGHP

(5) -

fishy

,

Michel

,

kunkstar

,

Xite

,

SSBF

Charlie

(2) -

Twomz

Charlie

(1) -

Chrono

Chrono

(1) - holycon

Michel

(1) - Batt
Not Voting (4) -

EGL

,

Plum

,

millar13

,

Ythan

EGL lynch: nachomamma8, Locke Lamora, rhinox, esurio
Wasted/No vote: Chro, Holy, Batt

Nacho are early enough. We know my town reads.

ScumSet TM - {Locke, Rhinox, Esurio} , {Chro, Batt}

Day 3:

RichardGHP

(12) –

Ythan

,

SSBF

,

Jahudo

,

Chrono

, Nachomamma8, Battousai, holycon, rhinox

SSBF

(8) –

Kunkstar

,

xite

,

Plum

MichelSableheart

,

KMD

,

RichardGHP

, Locke Lamora
Battousai (1) –

Fishy

Fishy

(1) – esuriospiritus
Not Voting (1) -

Charlie

Richard lynch: Chronopie, Nachomamma8, Battousai, holycon, rhinox
Wasted/No vote: Esurio

Anyone on the Day 1 Richard Mini-wagon AND this Richard lynch is removed from THIS ScumSet TM AND the previous Richard ScumSet TM for consistency points. Chro is the only one who fits. Not removing early votes because a Richard vote out of the gate could still be opportunistic (Yes, I'm going with a qualitative reason rather than quantitative. Deal with it.)

I'm starting to think SSBF is scum. because he was next to the Richard wagon. Hard to call anyone on that wagon scum until we see a flip. Massive town points to anyone on it if he flips scum, but it could be a ScumSet TM if he flips town. Need a SSBF flip before I can go back to it. Calling it null until then.

ScumSet TM - {Nachomamma8, Battousai, rhinox} , {}

ScumSet TMs for each Day:
Day 1: {

Amished

,

Batt

} , {}, {

Rhinox

,

Locke

}
Day 2: {

Locke

,

Rhinox

,

Esurio

} , {

Chro

,

Batt

}
Day 3: {

Nachomamma8

,

Battousai

,

rhinox

} , {}

Number of Days included in ScumSet TM's by player:

3:Rhinox, Batt

2:Locke

1: Amished, Nacho, Chro, esurio

0: holy

So with at least one scum in each set...
-must be scum.
-

Rhinox and Batt

are very likely scum.

^Those are the players most worth lynching today. If I'm wrong, the next ones to look at are the ones in orange: Locke.

Smash Bras being town would make Amished, Locke Lamora another set for Day 3. This would upgrade Amished to Orange and Locke to red.

If Smash Bras is town, Rhinox, Batt, and Locke are the most likely scum.

The biggest change is basically Locke. It's a connection between him and Smash Bras.




This is all I have so far, I'll get into later days if needed. I'll make an opinion later, got class.

[esuriospiritus]

If Smash Bras is town, Rhinox, Batt, and Locke are the most likely scum.

It's interesting that all these people are still alive, but I still wouldn't lynch Batt or Rhinox without a damn convincing case. (Also, Rhinox and Locke can't be scum together, because they would have won already if they were.)

Locke and Holy look worst to me out of the people still alive. Knowing KMD is town makes me particularly squeamish about taking holy to her grave what with his read on her and all, but then again I didn't or don't really agree with a lot of his reads, so what's one more?

Okay with either of those lynches.

[Locke Lamora]

Batt: why are you picking out that post of KMD's? Are you going to answer my other question?

Hey esurio, care to back that 'Locke and Holy are most likely scum' assertion with, you know,

some analysis

? Why do I look worse than the rest of the players? What are your reasons for having a super-town read on Batt and Rhinox? What has KMD's read on Holy got to do with her being scum? Why were you so quick to back up Batt's 'logic' about Kunk not vigging Holy, whilst completely missing the far more obvious reason to lynch Kunk?

[Battousai]

Locke- I must have missed your question. I think it was mainly the fact I wasn't really paying attention and it was scummy that kunk wouldn't vig the person he was voting for (which by itself is enough to vote him for inconsistancy). Now why I picked that post of Kmd's? I was going to do my own VC analysis (a basic highlight town/highlight scum) for the first two days, then I remembered Kmd did one and thought it would be faster just to copy and edit as needed.

Now, onto my analysis of sorts.

Scummy- Rhinox, Nacho, Locke for theory that scum try to vote differently from each other D1,
Scummy- Rhinox for theory that scum, when they can, will vote for another scum in the beginning game, especially when there is no support via vote for the lynch
Scummy- Rhinox, Nacho, Locke, esurio for theory that at least 1 scum would be on a lynching wagon in early days
Scummy- Holycon for theory that scum, when they can, will vote for another scum to early distance in the beginning game, especially when there is no support via vote for the lynch

Rhinox +3
Nacho +2
Locke +2
Holycon +1

I believe scum would be among these four, with the greatest chance being Rhinox. This is all pretty weak, so I don't feel comfortable voting until I do some ISO's.

[Locke Lamora]

It didn't seem to me like you weren't paying attention. You were paying attention enough during the claims to cast doubt on Ythan's and vote for him, you were paying attention when KMD voted for you, and you were paying attention when you switched your vote back to KMD. Given that everyone but Ythan had claimed VT, it wasn't really hard to keep track of the claims. Now, this bothers me because your response was that of a person who naturally assumed Kunk was a vig, which is more in line with that of a scumbuddy who knew he had a vig shot than it is with a townie who thought he claimed VT, or even couldn't remember his claim. Furthermore, it seemed like a conscious effort to make a reasonable-looking vote on Kunk; where Holy and Nacho just voted because it was bloody obvious Kunk was scum, you tried to justify it further when it wasn't necessary.

Also, you gave Esurio a scumpoint in your third category, so that essentially amounts to saying that everyone still in the game except you could be scum.

[Battousai]

Excuse me for not paying attention one day of the fucking year wupdedo. When a vig fucking kills someone who they did not suspect, I went on it. Excuse me for not remembering that he claimed VT at that exact moment. Sorry that I saw something as scummy and pounced. Sorry for trying to fucking catch scum. Sorrrrrrry. He still got lynched and you got some votes.

Where did I give esurio a scum point in my last post? No where, that's where. I'm using the VC to narrow down the fields, and I fucking did. Now, I'm looking into Rhinox first, as he had the most of the four. Now, are you trying to dismiss this whole thing by adding in Esurio, which I did not give a scumpoint.

Now I'm fucking late for class....

[Locke Lamora]

What would you think, if you were me? You reacted like Kunk was a vig, and like him being a vig was not new information. There's only one explanation for that. A lightning rod and a bunch of VTs is not hard information to keep track of. Kunk being lynched hasn't got anything to do with it. Kunk was always going to get lynched when KMD died. Nobody gets any credit for pointing out that Kunk was scum after that happened.

As for your second complaint, I think you'll find the bolded below to be useful:

Scummy- Rhinox, Nacho, Locke for theory that scum try to vote differently from each other D1,
Scummy- Rhinox for theory that scum, when they can, will vote for another scum in the beginning game, especially when there is no support via vote for the lynch
Scummy- Rhinox, Nacho, Locke,

esurio

for theory that at least 1 scum would be on a lynching wagon in early days
Scummy- Holycon for theory that scum, when they can, will vote for another scum to early distance in the beginning game, especially when there is no support via vote for the lynch