Stars Aligned III - The Tenth Day

[hitogoroshi]

EBWOP: Two more from Kunk/Plum/Triglav/VV

[AurorusVox]

Oh. I completely missed Kunk. FFFFUUUU-

[Seacore]

My 5.

You'll notice AV not on the list, due to AV's reaction today I'm less confident that I"m going to be murdering scum tonight, but I'll still go through with it form confirmation and the chance that it's all been a gambit.

Andrius
Nacho
Plum
TNM
VV

Other contenders are Iec and Kunk

[Seacore]

Also, I've been thinking that someone should stalk me tonight.

Trilo made a decent case against me, one that I think cult might find too tempting to ignore, so I think I'm a good candidate for them to fuck with. Especially since i don't think I'm murdering cult anymore, so AV will be a good ritual target.

So tomorrow, if AV is dead due to ritual, I'll be an obvious (mis)lynch. So to avoid that, someone should be in a position to murder me.

Murdering me (if necessary) confirms somebody else, saves us the lynch for somebody who might actually be scum, and stops messing with my murder being so tempting to the cult.

Thoughts?

[AurorusVox]

I'm rezzing tonight so cult can't mess with your murder of me. I'll show up murdered if you're an investigator.

If Seacore is cult, his plan was to get his cultbuddies to ward him so that any stalk on him would fail. I see right through it, if it's motives are nefarious. I guess tonight's murder will clear this up.

[Seacore]

Ah, true AV, so the only way (from my POV of knowing I'm town) of cult messing with me is if you are cult, if we both survive the night, you should be lynched, and if you die from ritual, I should be lynched.
Worst case scenario, cult ritualled one of their own to mislynch me, which is a decent trade in my books.

Ah, I'm feeling much better about that.

[AurorusVox]

Yep. If I survive, then FMPOV you're cult, but we can lynch me to prove it, since I'd only lie about not rezzing if I was cult and if I was town you'd be lying about the murder attempt. Cold-hearted objectivity ftw. We could use this plan for all the stalk-kills.

[Seacore]

Indeed, we should.

Just to work this through and see if I'm missing something

Our stalk/murder/confirm strategy is designed to have Person A murder Person B. Person B should First Aid somebody so that First Aid cannot work on them.
Person B should be declared as "Murdered" during the next Day's opening post, and thus Person B will be confirmed.


Negative Outcome 1: If Person B is dead from Ritual, since a murder action should have been successful due to Person B using First Aid and thus being immune to First Aid themselves, Person B likely did not murder and should be lynched.

Potential Issue: Person B may have been scum, who did not use first aid, had one his cultist buddies first aid him instead and then got ritualled for the purpose of making Person A look guilty. This is a fine trade, and cult are welcome to do this.

Negative Outcome 2: If Person B is still alive, Person B likely used first aid and got rezzed. Person B should be lynched.

Potential Issue: Person A may not have actually murdered, and lynching Person B will be lynching town. However Person A will have outted themselves as scum. At this stage of the game, that's fine, but it could get dangerous as we approach late game.

Have I covered everything?

[Seacore]

EBWOP: Sorry, it should read "and thus Person A will be confirmed"

[AurorusVox]

Yep, basically, at the moment it's a tool that exploits the one-for-one trade aspect of murder. We either get a confirmed townie, or confirmed cult. That can happen either tonight, or after a one day delay (which is where we'll need to get careful).

Best case scenario is the person murdered is cult (1-0 town)
And worst case scenario is still only a 1-1 trade

Just a quick note, though, Person B should rez Person A so that the potentially clear townie doesn't get killed off.

[Seacore]

Good point on the rez target. I likes it.
We are also hopefully stacking it by putting scummy people in Person B slots and towny people in Person A slots.

[AurorusVox]

Except this time you have me as a Person B Q_Q

But yeah. I am confident enough in the plan that I will take the bullet for the town. Just promise not to let WIFOM into your hearts! It is the cruelty of the Cthulu!

[Seacore]

So, with that in mind

we should lynch plum

Hito murders Andrius
Andrius first aids Hito

Seacore murders AV
AV first aids Seacore

TNM murders VPB
VPB first aids TNM (can VPB first aid?)

Iec restalks.

[Triglav]

Hey Triglav, looking at your low insanity count made me think back to your CD*'s. Why have you only communed once?

Because every ruddy one of you became a grave robbing machine.
Everybody was more coo-coo for CoCo Puffs than us.
Couldn't check anyone who mattered anymore because you'd all count as more insane.
Suppose we could have just randomly started doing it to up our insanities but also suspect that would have been frowned upon.
So became rez bot.
Beep-beep.

triglav who did you rezz?

Hito.
Beep-beep.

Also, top five remaining suspects?
Hmmm.
No particular order, but;

Andrius
AV
Plum
TNM

Ah...too dumb to have a fifth. Has Iec been cleared? We'll suspect Iec.
Ooh, or people suspect kunk, we could suspect kunk too.
One of them.
Yes.

Plan is risking VP for TNM? This is not furc for xvart quality exchange
Otherwise am excited by current killing and stalking plan as outlined by Seacore.
Are pretty sure Sotty is up conspiracy tree #7 with Seacore, he looks like very town.
Have been wanting Plum lynched for some time, would rather see her hang than TNM, would prefer TNM to be given forced other stalk for confirmage rather than risk VP.

[AurorusVox]

TRIGLAV! RAGE!

This plan was my baby that I've been nurturing as my dying town legacy. And you say you like SEACORE for it?! WHAT IS THIS TREACHERY?!

---

Ahem, back to Seacore:

That's my proposition. I think that gives us the best chance of catching and clearing. BUT, people were unsatisfied with TNM murdering VPB. I don't know. If we're pretty sure TNM is scum we can just lynch him today and save VPB, but it DOES mean we have one less "confirmed" townie.

Hmm. The plan is potentially at fault in the future though. After tonight, people won't be CLEARED by lynching the stalkee and having them flip cult, since cult can claim a stalk on one of their own and then not follow through. If they have buddies that are getting lynched anyway (Nico, Plum) then cult could manipulate this plan to make sure they're slated to stalk that person. Because I think we have the element of surprise, this shouldn't be a problem tonight. Also, because we have the element of surprise, it's the best night to maximum the stalk-kill-checks.

On the other hand, you CAN catch someone by lynching the STALKER and having them flip town. In this case, the stalkee didn't rez themselves and is cult. But again, if the stalker flips scum, that doesn't mean their stalkee isn't their buddy.

Lastly, you CAN catch people by lynching the stalkee and having them flip town. If the stalkee is town and claims they were not murdered, since they'd have no reason to lie, their stalker was cult.

---

Handy reference table in the event of the Stalkee's survival...

Stalkee flips town -- Stalker = Cult
Stalkee flips scum -- Stalker probably cleared TONIGHT ONLY

Stalker flips town -- Stalkee caught
Stalker flips scum -- Stalkee probably cleared TONIGHT ONLY

[Seacore]

Plan is risking VP for TNM? This is not furc for xvart quality exchange

I'm not wrapped about it either but given we have a good lynch candidate other than TNM, I think it's worth it. The only downside is that I'm not sure (and can't be bothered checking right now) whether VP has a first aid kit.

If he doesn't then cult could screw that one up far more easily. And thus, if he doesn't, I'd be willing to entertain lynching TNM instead, since we can't trust the results.

[Feysal]

Infact everyone should say who they believe the last 5 cult are.

If I'm going to name my top five suspects, I'm going to have to sort all of my reads. Hold on...

Andrius/Plum

There is reason to suspect either of them on their own. Andrius for his lack of presence in the thread, and the odd way he took Obsession and then struggled to get out of communing. Plum also for her low presence, her interactions with SpyreX, and the way she noted the double ward on MoI without going anywhere with it. As we now know, Baby Spice was the cultist out of that pair. The reason I've grouped them is yesterday's noise claims. They should not have heard noise since they were on the stalk list, but both claimed it. Since Baby Spice was warded and was cult, and Nicodemus was warded and appears to be town due to his res, then if both Andrius and Plum were warded, they cannot both be cult because of the way ward works. Only problem is that I don't know who Wraith stalked, if one of them heard sound from that they could both be cult anyway.

Nachomamma8

The possibility that his predecessor lied about resuscitating Wickedestjr has always been there, and I've been content thinking we were both town for too long. Now I've begun to wonder why the cult has never tried anything with either of us, no fetishes, no attempts to push a case, nothing. This has made me wonder if they don't want to draw any attention to either of us. Also, when Baby Spice tried to quicklynch herself yesterday, Nachomamma8 was the last one to vote before her.

Triglav

They've all but vanished off the face of the earth, though that may be due to some of their heads flaking. What I find odd about them is that they thought it was a good idea to commune both me and nopoint, yet after communing nopoint they never communed me when no one else did. That opportunity closed last night when I got one more insanity.

totallynotmafia

He has certainly acted strange for most of today, and his stalk of VP Baltar is horribly self-serving. He could easily be cult hoping to be called off from murdering, or perhaps hoping to fail to kill and look town because of it. If there is no ritual death tomorrow and totallynotmafia claims to have tried to murder VP Baltar, I would be very suspicious of him. Unless of course he is lynched today. Only problem I have with him being cult is that only two nights back he had no insanities when I communed him, but the cult may have hoped to get someone into endgame purely by being clean of insanities.

That makes five. As an extra, looking at our most trusted players, I am certain of Seacore being town. I think Trilobite's case on him is nonsense, since I don't think there is any way cult would not grab the corpse dust if paired with another cultist to rob a grave. Of the trusted players, the one I'm having most doubts about is, have to admit it, Benmage.

What got me started was reading Trilobite's thoughts on grave robs and why both cult were allowed to flip. What if the reason SpyreX was allowed to flip was to give Benmage a town pass for stalking and supposedly trying to murder him? Also, it was Benmage who released Baby Spice from grave robbing and replaced her with AurorusVox, only to attack her the next day, out of the blue, with no real case, forgetting all about AV. And Baby Spice self-destructs. Today I've seen him claim credit for catching both SpyreX and Baby Spice, calling attention to how town he is and how correct he has been. Er, remember Fate? Remember that VasudeVa made the push that got SpyreX lynched? Remember that I wrote the case on Baby Spice back in the day?

I have this horrible idea that Benmage has been playing us for fools, that he claimed to have stalked and murdered early precisely to be put on grave rob duty and supply the cult with corpse dust. Having him designing a plan that calls for nearly everyone to stalk and murder gives me the creeps. Has everyone forgotten about CHAOS? What if that is precisely what Benmage is trying to achieve?

Worst case scenario, cult ritualled one of their own to mislynch me, which is a decent trade in my books.

Not possible. Cult need a fetish to ritual, and they can't craft fetishes of their own. hitogoroshi made the same mistake sometime earlier, I believe with Wickedestjr.

[Triglav]

@AV - you can go hug Andrius if it makes you feel better.

@Seacore - Fair enough, if VP lacks a res kit let's obligate TNM/Plum to an alternate stalk and lynch the other. I'd still prefer Plum over TNM as lynch.

@Feysal - we already noted that as originator of the plan for communing you and nopoint you *of course* had the correct number of insanities regardless of your alignment. We'd rather not waste actions on that sort of silliness and said as much.

[Seacore]

I've had the same fears with Benmage.

My thoughts are that tomorrow night we get somebody to stalk him and the next night get them to kill him. As he's taken suicidal he's a liability even if he's town. He's admitted as much and will likely accept the death happily.

I had completely forgotten about chaos though, yeeeesh. I'll have to look into that. I'm planning on taking forced laundering tonight anyway.

As for my quote and your response. That's awesome. One less possibility for scum.

[Benmage]

I wish I was as awesome as feysal thinks I am

[Andrius]

Benmage is town.
Stop fussing over it.

AV and I don't need to draw attention. We will rezz and die as ordered.

[Seacore]

Regardless of Benmage's alignment, he cannot surive to end game, he and xvart are liabilities due to suicidal. Soon, they will become stalk targets.

[Andrius]

Yes but I was proving a point. confirmed town pushing OMGBLOODLUSTOFDEATH is rather off.
(Though I feel like that would be really fun.)

[Seacore]

Chaos is still something to be fearful of

[xvart]

Plum
Triglav
TNM
VV
Kunkstar (maybe?)

I don't think Chaos is really viable (at least while I am alive) because I won't become bloody for the rest of the game, unless I am killed and rezzed.

And Suicidal isn't really a threat at this time because there are nine (eight with Suicidal) needed for a lynch. With 5 cult members there would need to be three town voters voting for me and that is not happening (at least until two days from now). We shouldn't be wasting stalking on me right now and trying to hit Cult members. If I need to die, I need to die and it doesn't matter if I am lynched or Stalked, so why waste the resources.

Plum should be lynched today. We've got hella numbers right now (especially since only one person went the Murderer route, which I'm sure is built into the game to accommodate more). We lynch Cult and figure out the rest as it happens.